What a slate of SPs going today. Chris Bassitt gets to host the Rangers, but check out his ER given up his past eight starts: 3, 3, 0, 7, 4, 1, 8, 4. This hound has spent the last month dog-wiping all over your ratios. Who else ya got, Streamonator? Joe Ryan checks in going against the Orioles, but since he was activated from the IL, he’s given up 10 ER in 16 IP. Somebody needs to Save Joe Ryan’s ERA. Let’s scroll down some more. Toronto’s Jose Berrihahahahaha nooooope, not suggesting him. I’ll keep looking. Lance Lynn has given up 11 ER over his 16 innings this year, though he was allowed to go 100+ pitches last time out and had an 8/1 K/BB in his last outing (while still giving up 5 ER). If epic junk-grabs after strikeouts was a category, he’d be our lead every 5th day, but I’m not ready to roll with him yet, even if he’s on the road in San Fran. Max Fried–now we’re cooking with gas! I can’t find many faults with him, other than his HR/FB% is nearly 6% better than league average and his career average–and Great American Launching Pad in Cincy is just the right place for the Regression Fairies to defecate Skyline “chili” all over his ratios. Am I overthinking it? Wait, am I overthinking whether I’m overthinking it? GAH! I just don’t feel good trying to unearth that diamond in the rough today and can’t recommend any of these guys, so I’m going to lean on my teacher roots and go to the chalk.

Let me introduce you to the two best pitchers in baseball, both pitching today–Gerrit Cole (FD $10,600/DK $10,800) and Corbin Burnes (FD $10,900/DK $10,600). They’re the top-two Streamonator picks, with the big rustbucket having Cole above Burnes. They have roughly the same odds at a QS according to Streamonator, but it gives Cole the big nod in win probability, which makes sense since (stutterer!) the Yankees are on pace for 194 wins this season (I proofed the calculation, it checks out). When I choose my lineups today I’m going with at least one of each of these guys. I may be able to talk myself into a third iteration with Fried or Lynn, but if I’m putting money into it, I want to put my money into money guys, and Cole and Burnes are the two best SPs in the sport.

New to DFS?  You can start playing right now on FanDuel and put our picks to the test.  If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!

 

Adley Rutschman, C: DK $3,700 – When Rutschman was called up, he was the consensus top prospect in baseball. After a slow start, he’s begun to hit like it, with a pair of big flies the last seven days and an OPS around .900 the last two weeks. 

Christian Walker, 1B: FD $3,100/DK $4,200 – Walker is 10-21 lifetime vs Antoni-oh-no Senzatela, with a pair of HRs and doubles among his knocks. Did you know his middle name is “Dickson”? I just can’t think of any good jokes for that, so I’m going to move along to…

Ketel Marte, 2B: FD $2,900/DK $5,200 – OK, I promise I won’t just suggest D-backs in Coors; this is my last one. Marte is 10-24 lifetime vs. Senzatela with a triple and a double. I’m just going to assume the singles all had an exit velocity of 135 mph and Marte didn’t have enough time to go past first base before the OFs got the ball back to the infield. Major discount on FanDuel here vs DraftKings.

Luis Urias, 3B: FD $3,000/DK $2,700 – Urias is in the midst of a 6-19 stretch with two bombs. He’s going against Roansy Contreras and PNC Park isn’t known as a hitter’s park, but Contreras throws his heater 51% of the time, and Urias feasts on fast, with an .830 OPS, .194 ISO and 25% HR/FB% vs fastballs.

Carlos Correa, SS: FD $3,400/DK $4,600 – Correa has nine hits in his last seven games, including two dongers and five RBI. Sorry, Watkins, but your 40% HardHit% and 1.2% CSW% proves that there’s only room for one terrific Spenser/Spencer on the mound during a particular season…and he pitches for Atlanta.

Chris Taylor, OF: FD $2,700/DK $4,500 – Taylor is 4-13 lifetime against Blake Snell, including two yardshots and a double. Throughout his career, he tunes up lefties to a .900 OPS. If Taylor adds a third HR to his career line vs Blake, let’s hope Snell’s mom Darlene doesn’t give Taylor the Frank Cosgove Jr. treatment.

Kyle Tucker, OF: FD $3,600/DK $5,300 – King Tuck has a pair of dingers and a pair of bags in his last 21 ABs, and Michael Lorenzen has given up 15 ER in his last 20 IP. Just make sure you loudly call off Altuve on any shallow pop flies, ok Tuck? (luv u Yordan!)

Riley Greene, OF: FD $2,600/DK $2,400 – Admittedly, it’s more of a gut call, but at least hear me out before passing on Greene. Over his first 35 major league ABs, he’s walked more than he’s struck out (which is really impressive for him, considering he’s had swing-and-miss issues in the minors, but always a good eye), had a max EV of 109.7 mph, and has a Z-contact% of 91.1%. He makes terrific swing decisions, great contact when he hunts pitches in the zone, has proven he can smoke the ball at this level…but he’s hit it on the ground 55% of the time. He’s thisclose to breaking out, and you’re going to want to be in on him when he does.

 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

@BallparkWeather has a high chance of delay for NYY @ CLE, and a moderate chance of delay for MIL @ PIT, so why don’t you take both of your SP picks today and cram them up your cramhole, Hoove. 

 

Doing Lines In Vegas

I know Coors makes everybody great, but Randal Grichuk, his xAVG of .228 and whopping (/s) eight homers is testing that theory this year. He’s +190 to get fewer than 0.5 hits tonight, and for one made up dollar, I’m willing to wager that he’ll throw up a bagel.

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martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

i might have overreacted and cut Dennis Kramer and picked up Eric Lauer. Lauren’s next start is against Pitt. was that a good move?

thanks as always for all your help!!

martin

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

hard to believe that it’s July 4th. even harder to believe that i am still in second place in my fantasy league. i have never been higher than eighth.

The only regretable stat is related to innings which i have used. i have made this projection and would like your insight;
1: i have only 700 innings left.
2. the season has 13 weeks left.
3. I can only use 55 innings per week (700/13=55).
4. The average pitcher goes 6 innings. I can only have 9 starts per week 55/9=6).
5. i currently have 15 pitchers on my staff. for week 13, these pitchers are scheduled for 18 starts in week 13. Based on the projection of 9 starts, i should sit pitchers on 9 occasions. does this mean, i should just start Corbin Burnes, Cristian Javier, Tryler Anderson, Mike Mikolas and be very selective with Lopez, Clevinger, Springs, and Jon Gray. Does this also mean to be very selective with Alex Woods, Dean Kramer, Mitch White or Ashby?

i am looking forward to your response!

martin

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

Yep, you’re going to have to really watch things outside of your “must-start” guys. Pretty much opponent-specific here for a bit.

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

thanks for all your help! Your predictions have been very accurate.

1.i have read a lot of different views on starting Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox during the week. He is pitching at home against TB and NY Yanks. Start against TB and sit against NY? what do you recommend?

2. Another question mark is whether to start or sit Alex Wood of the Giants. He is on road against AZ and SD. start at AZ and sit at SD? Thoughts?

3. The Padres Mike Clevinger is at home against Seattle and on the road at Colorado. i was going to start against Seattle and sit against Colorado. Do you agree?

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

Since you’re watching innings, I may bench Pivetta for both. NYY is auto-bench and even at home, Fenway is a hitters park.

I like your Alex Wood plan.

Def sit Clev (and most anybody) at Coors. Start vs SEA.

Good luck!

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoover,

would you waive Semantnony Dominguez of the Phils to pick up Mitch White?

thanks!

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

If you have a solid saves situation I could see that but my first inclination is to hold Seranthony.

Framber sure went off today…though PabLo was good as well

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
Reply to  Hoove
1 month ago

thanks!!! you have a great memory!

i will be so glad if Pablo proves those may sayer’s wrong. i remember a general manager says that sometimes the best trades are the ones that you don’t make. Thanks for your advice about standing pat with Lopez!!

your help, wit and in-depth information is very much appreciated.

would you start Baltimore’s Dean Kramer in his next two starts? Both are at home. His first start is home against Texas. His next start is also home against the LAA’s.

The Dodgers’ Mitch White’s next two starts are home against Colorado and the Cubs. Based on your previous input about White, it could be a sensible risk to pick him up off waivers and waive one of my utility hitters. Do you still think it is worth to take the risk and take White and then start him against Colorado and the Cubs?

thanks again!

martin

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

I’d probably rather have White’s starts (so long is the COL one is in Dodger Stadium) than Kremer’s but I’m not against any of those starts.

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
Reply to  Hoove
1 month ago

the White starts against Colorado and Chi are both at Dodger Stadium.

Thanks for working so late and for all your help!

martin

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

any thoughts on Mitch White and his value?

thanks

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Sorry my response got lost.

thanks Hoove for all your help!

1. Would you keep Ashby? His next start is on the road against Pitt?

2. To get Ross Stripling, who would you waive among Ashby, Alex Wood, Dean Kramer, Mike Clevinger, Jeffrey Spring or keep these and waive one of my bench hitters?

thanks!!

martin

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

I 100% keep Ashby. Drop Kramer.

Mitch White more of a match-up streamer to me than a hold, but he has K upside and W upside with LAD (if he can get to 5 IP).

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

please see questions below in my response.

your help is so appreciated!

martin

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

not my day for trades.

i offered Pablo Lopez for Framber Valdez and the other fantasy manager turned it down. I then offered Connor Joe and Lopez for Valdez and that trade was also rejected.

1. i would welcome and appreciate any suggestions of any trade to move Lopez.

Lopez’s next two starts are both on the road at the Mets and Washington. i was going to start him at both. Do you agree?

thanks!

martin

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

Sorry so late, Martin:

I’d rather have Strip so go get him back if you can.

I think I’d rather have Pablo than Framber as well, so I’m glad you had those trades turned down.

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

thanks for your excellent column! it is so helpful!!!!!

1. i picked up Dean Kramer and dropped Ross Stripling. was that a good move? should i try and get back Ross?

2. i was going to start Tyler Anderson at home against SD. Thoughts?

3. I was leaning to starting Aaron Ashby of the Brewer’s on the road against PItt. Thoughts?

4. is it time to give up on Pablo Lopez? i tried for Framber Valdez and was rejected. Any advice on who would be worth pursuing in a trade would be appreciated.

5. is it worth picking up the Dodgers Mark White? would you waive Alex Wood to get him?

thanks for your thoughtful insights!

martin