What a slate of SPs going today. Chris Bassitt gets to host the Rangers, but check out his ER given up his past eight starts: 3, 3, 0, 7, 4, 1, 8, 4. This hound has spent the last month dog-wiping all over your ratios. Who else ya got, Streamonator? Joe Ryan checks in going against the Orioles, but since he was activated from the IL, he’s given up 10 ER in 16 IP. Somebody needs to Save Joe Ryan’s ERA. Let’s scroll down some more. Toronto’s Jose Berrihahahahaha nooooope, not suggesting him. I’ll keep looking. Lance Lynn has given up 11 ER over his 16 innings this year, though he was allowed to go 100+ pitches last time out and had an 8/1 K/BB in his last outing (while still giving up 5 ER). If epic junk-grabs after strikeouts was a category, he’d be our lead every 5th day, but I’m not ready to roll with him yet, even if he’s on the road in San Fran. Max Fried–now we’re cooking with gas! I can’t find many faults with him, other than his HR/FB% is nearly 6% better than league average and his career average–and Great American Launching Pad in Cincy is just the right place for the Regression Fairies to defecate Skyline “chili” all over his ratios. Am I overthinking it? Wait, am I overthinking whether I’m overthinking it? GAH! I just don’t feel good trying to unearth that diamond in the rough today and can’t recommend any of these guys, so I’m going to lean on my teacher roots and go to the chalk.
Let me introduce you to the two best pitchers in baseball, both pitching today–Gerrit Cole (FD $10,600/DK $10,800) and Corbin Burnes (FD $10,900/DK $10,600). They’re the top-two Streamonator picks, with the big rustbucket having Cole above Burnes. They have roughly the same odds at a QS according to Streamonator, but it gives Cole the big nod in win probability, which makes sense since (stutterer!) the Yankees are on pace for 194 wins this season (I proofed the calculation, it checks out). When I choose my lineups today I’m going with at least one of each of these guys. I may be able to talk myself into a third iteration with Fried or Lynn, but if I’m putting money into it, I want to put my money into money guys, and Cole and Burnes are the two best SPs in the sport.
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Adley Rutschman, C: DK $3,700 – When Rutschman was called up, he was the consensus top prospect in baseball. After a slow start, he’s begun to hit like it, with a pair of big flies the last seven days and an OPS around .900 the last two weeks.
Christian Walker, 1B: FD $3,100/DK $4,200 – Walker is 10-21 lifetime vs Antoni-oh-no Senzatela, with a pair of HRs and doubles among his knocks. Did you know his middle name is “Dickson”? I just can’t think of any good jokes for that, so I’m going to move along to…
Ketel Marte, 2B: FD $2,900/DK $5,200 – OK, I promise I won’t just suggest D-backs in Coors; this is my last one. Marte is 10-24 lifetime vs. Senzatela with a triple and a double. I’m just going to assume the singles all had an exit velocity of 135 mph and Marte didn’t have enough time to go past first base before the OFs got the ball back to the infield. Major discount on FanDuel here vs DraftKings.
Luis Urias, 3B: FD $3,000/DK $2,700 – Urias is in the midst of a 6-19 stretch with two bombs. He’s going against Roansy Contreras and PNC Park isn’t known as a hitter’s park, but Contreras throws his heater 51% of the time, and Urias feasts on fast, with an .830 OPS, .194 ISO and 25% HR/FB% vs fastballs.
Carlos Correa, SS: FD $3,400/DK $4,600 – Correa has nine hits in his last seven games, including two dongers and five RBI. Sorry, Watkins, but your 40% HardHit% and 1.2% CSW% proves that there’s only room for one terrific Spenser/Spencer on the mound during a particular season…and he pitches for Atlanta.
Chris Taylor, OF: FD $2,700/DK $4,500 – Taylor is 4-13 lifetime against Blake Snell, including two yardshots and a double. Throughout his career, he tunes up lefties to a .900 OPS. If Taylor adds a third HR to his career line vs Blake, let’s hope Snell’s mom Darlene doesn’t give Taylor the Frank Cosgove Jr. treatment.
Kyle Tucker, OF: FD $3,600/DK $5,300 – King Tuck has a pair of dingers and a pair of bags in his last 21 ABs, and Michael Lorenzen has given up 15 ER in his last 20 IP. Just make sure you loudly call off Altuve on any shallow pop flies, ok Tuck? (luv u Yordan!)
Riley Greene, OF: FD $2,600/DK $2,400 – Admittedly, it’s more of a gut call, but at least hear me out before passing on Greene. Over his first 35 major league ABs, he’s walked more than he’s struck out (which is really impressive for him, considering he’s had swing-and-miss issues in the minors, but always a good eye), had a max EV of 109.7 mph, and has a Z-contact% of 91.1%. He makes terrific swing decisions, great contact when he hunts pitches in the zone, has proven he can smoke the ball at this level…but he’s hit it on the ground 55% of the time. He’s thisclose to breaking out, and you’re going to want to be in on him when he does.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
@BallparkWeather has a high chance of delay for NYY @ CLE, and a moderate chance of delay for MIL @ PIT, so why don’t you take both of your SP picks today and cram them up your cramhole, Hoove.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I know Coors makes everybody great, but Randal Grichuk, his xAVG of .228 and whopping (/s) eight homers is testing that theory this year. He’s +190 to get fewer than 0.5 hits tonight, and for one made up dollar, I’m willing to wager that he’ll throw up a bagel.