Here we go. MLB season officially is under way as we get into Day 6 of action. I’m back this year with my Tuesday DFS Predictions and Plans. I may fill in another day here and there as we are still looking for some help putting together a full writing staff in the world of DFS here at Razzball. It’s a great spot to get your start writing articles, so if you think you have what it takes leave me a note below in the comments, or reach out to MattTruss and he’ll get a hold of you.
It wasn’t a great start for me in a few leagues as I have more than my fair share of Triston McKenzie, Max Fried, and Robbie Ray. In the Perty Perts league here at Razzball with Robbie Ray, I am going to have to stream a subpar SP almost every day and hope to polish that turd each night as a streaming pitcher. It’s very similar in DFS especially if you are hoping to cash in tournaments. Half the battle is figuring out which SP2 is going to get you solid results and not ruin your night. I play more double-ups than tournaments, but even in those getting that value at SP is the way to make things happen in DFS. Also, I typically work off trends and match-ups, but early on it’s tough in DFS to rely on trends so mostly, it’s historical match-up and gut feelings. Some of those gut feelings can be big values because the DFS boards haven’t adjusted to 2023 yet and are for the most part working on 2022 data to produce their prices. I always like to start with the lowest-priced options and work my way up to make sure I don’t miss a value that the DFS Books did.
With that, I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main evening slate on Tuesday, April 4th, 2023. If you play on DraftKings, it is an 11-game slate starting at 6:05 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you play on Fanduel I encourage you to sign up for the DFS tools to help you make the best decisions for your lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
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Shane Bieber, SP: $10,500. It’s game 6 of the season. That means a few things. A boatload of #5 starters going for most teams who got the post opening day break in case of rain. And a boatload of #1 starters by teams who have already played 5 games. It’s feast or famine. With a lack of mid-tier value I realize I have to pay up right away after looking at the mudpies who are going for most teams. Bieber wasn’t sharp in his first outing as he only got 3 Ks in 6 IP and allowed 3 walks, plus a 50% Hard hit percentage. He was able to limit the damage as he kept the ball in the yard and stranded every baserunner. That was against the Mariners, now he’ll get the Athletics who put up 3 total runs in 3 games against the Angels over the weekend. Look for the Biebs to get those K numbers up.
Jose Suarez, SP: $7,300. Well, Suarez is the best of the worst when it comes to low tier starters on Tuesday. He has 8.50 K/9 in 2022 to go along with a 3.67 xERA. He had 3 +Value pitches in 2022 and the underlying metrics suggest he is improving. Suarez raised his outside the zone swing percentage to 36.1%, and if he can combine that with his Ground ball levels from 2021 he will take another step forward this year. He’ll get the Mariners in Seattle on Monday night.
Kyle Higashioka, C: $2,500 or Jose Trevino, C: $2,400. I’m playing whichever Yankees catcher finds his way into the lineup against Matt Strahm. Strahm hasn’t been a regular for any period of time since 2019, and was only stretched out at the end of spring training after the Ranger Suarez injury. His ERA in 2019 was 4.71 and over 5 as a starter. I think he goes 60ish pitches and then turns it over to the bullpen. While Philly has a solid back end of the bullpen, Strahm will likely turn it over to someone less than stellar early on. Vasquez went 2.1 IP on Monday night, so not sure who it will be. Either way, the bullpen will be taxed. A Yankees stack isn’t bad tonight.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B: $4,100. Lowe was a value play for me almost 50% of the time in 2022, and while his price has gone up slightly he is only $100 more than Connor Joe and he is cheaper than Yandy Diaz. I just don’t get it. His OPS was low in 2022 at .742, but so was his K Rate, and he still hit 27 Home Runs while batting .302 and driving in 76 runs. He is hitting behind Semien and Seager and ahead of Adolis Garcia and Jung. That’s a great spot to be and this is a great price.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $4,900. A lot of the same reasoning with Strahm and the Phillies bullpen being his pitching opponents. He has a .249 ISO in his career vs lefties at Yankee Stadium. Torres also has stolen two bases to kickoff the opening weekend.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,900. Man….Third Base drops off fast. I’m likely gonna have one of the top options in my lineup 90% of the time this year in DFS. Nolan strikes out very little and hits home runs very often. I picked my value OF before my Arenado pick tonight so find out more about his match-up below.
Bo Bichette, SS: $4,900. Bo Knows BABIP. He hits the ball hard all over the field and gets on base at an extremely high rate. Bichette also hit the first home run for the entire Blue Jays team on the season in the 9th inning Monday night. Kris Bubic and his career 15.9% HR/FB ratio seems like a solid bet to more than double their season output, especially with winds forecast to be blowing out in KC at a 15-20 MPH clip.
Jordan Walker, OF: $2,400. Apparently Grey forgot to send the memo to Draftkings on the Walker Revolution. He’s only $2,400 which is probably a reflection of him not getting a hit on opening weekend. Wait a minute, he got 3 hits you say? And a Stolen Base? And drove in 2 runs? Walker may take a little time to adjust to major league pitching making the jump straight from AA, but his 70 grade Raw Power is no joke, and he’s already making an impact. The Cards face the Braves on Tuesday and Walker (And Arenado) will face rookie Dylan Dodd. I don’t know much about Dodd other than the stats which show a really good K/BB ratio of about 5/1 and a K rate near 10K/9. It’s his MLB debut so nerves could be a factor. Also, weather could be a factor, see more on that below. Walker will be in a fair amount of lineups at this price and rightfully so, but there’s also a large handful of people who play DFS and enjoy lighting money on fire who have never heard of him. Let’s beat those guys.
Tyler O’Neill, OF $4,500. Yanks stacks look good, but Cards stack looks better to me. The O’Neill come back train got off to a nice start with a home run this weekend, but he is still striking out too much to be elite. If he improves his K-Rate this year look out.
Nick Castellanos, OF $4,000. Nick took a big step back in 2022, especially in barrel and hard hit rate. I am not one of the folks who are calling for his bounce back. His chase rate increased to over 43% in 2022. He’s the Javy Baez of outfielders and no one is calling for a big Javy bounceback. Having said that, he’ll face Domingo German who had a really rough spring. Hoping for a little Castellenos magic.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Big weather day across baseball especially with a severe weather threat across the middle of the country. There could be severe weather in Kansas City, but I think it will blow through there by gametime. St. Louis could be in the cross hairs come first pitch. Be ready to pivot that Cards stack. If the games go however winds could be blowing out at 15-25 in both those locations. There will also be strong winds in San Diego blowing from left to right, in Chavez Ravine blowing out to right, In Oakland blowing out to right, and in Cincinnati blowing from right to left.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I did mention I do a bit of Sports Handicapping. Follow me on Twitter @TheGreat Knoche for more info. I’ll give out a Free Play here every Tuesday, but you can find all my free and premium picks for MLB and a few other sports at The Odds Breakers
The Yankees scored a bunch Monday night, and I like their chances to do so again on Tuesday. If the full game comes it at 8.5 -110 or better I’ll get on that or possibly look to pivot to the Yanks team Total.
