Welcome back to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, coming at you a year older than I was when I wrote last week’s article. I spent this past week re-watching Stranger Things and wondering why I haven’t won a GPP yet this season. Then I thought well maybe I’m living in an alternate dimension like the Upside Down where everything is the same but with no life. Maybe the Upside Down has DFS but doesn’t allow you to have a process? Maybe all the players I roster don’t have their skills there? Maybe this, maybe that, whatever it is it’s time to light the flame and scare away the Demogorgans. It’s time to summon the Eleven in me, destroy the bad guys, close the gate to the Upside Down, and live on the green side of Hawkins. We have a few guys playing tonight who have been stuck in the Upside Down this season, Lucas Giolito is one of them. His strikeout numbers have not changed much from 2021 and his SwSt% has actually improved two ticks but this hasn’t helped his 29.5% hard contact rate or his .360 BABIP. Both of those numbers are way up from his career totals. I’m not going to waste my time saving Giolito from the Upside Down tonight. Instead, I’m going to focus my time on building a team of Dungeons and Dragons experts with a few unexpected heroes to restore order to Hawkins and put me back on top of the DFS leaderboard!
We have a nine-game slate tonight on FanDuel which includes the Dodgers in Coors Field (without Mookie Betts) and a 5.35 implied run total for Texas Rangers against Kris Bubic and the Royals bullpen that ranks 29th in wOBA. Vecna will try to persuade us to stack the hot-hitting Mariners against Tyler Wells and the O’s tonight. Will we be able to resist? After having the worst bullpen ERA in the majors in 2021, the Baltimore Orioles sit a 3.06, third best in the majors. Quite the turnaround, but I’ve seen Stranger Things! If you have no idea what I’m talking about just go watch the show. On to tonight’s picks!
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Pitchers
Jordan Montgomery, SP: $9,200 –Yankees
JoMo’s 18.5% K rate seems like it should be higher. With a 30.9% CSW and an elite 14.7% SwSt rate he should be racking up more Ks. Tonight he has a great opportunity to do that against Oakland who has a 23% K rate and is hitting .220 vs LHP which ranks 29th in the majors. Oakland is one of the worst offenses in the majors and although Yankee Stadium is a hitter’s park its not likely to help them when Jed Lowrie is batting clean-up. Paul Blackburn has been great this season but has struggled a bit vs good teams and the Yankees are a great team. I think JoMo cruises tonight and the Yankees put up enough runs to get him the W.
George Kirby, SP: $9,000 – Mariners
Baltimore has a 5.0 implied run total tonight which is way to high IMO. Over the past two weeks the O’s lead the majors with a 26.6% K rate while they rank bottom-five in all other major hitting categories during this span. Yes, they have some pop with Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hayes emerging but Cedric Mullens is no where near his 2021 pace but this team is swinging at everything and George Kirby has a 16.1% SwSt on his four-seamer which he throws more than 50% of the time.
Erick Fedde SP: $7,900 – Washington Nationals
I’ve stacked against Erick Fedde plenty ofd times in the past and this season but tonight I like the matchup and momentum he has. Sure, Lucas Giolito, who is only $100 more than Fedde, seems like the better play but six of the Angels starters have homered off LG and he’s been bad. Like I said before, I’m leaving Giolito and his 30% ownership in the Upside Down tonight. The Pirates have top prospect Oneil Cruz in the lineup now but overall they are not very good. A .220 batting average and 84 wRC+ on the season rank 28th in the majors. Fedde has been solid his last three outings and turned out a two-hit quality start in his las start. If you’re looking for value tonight Fedde is my pick. I think he can get us 30 points vs the Pirates.
Hitters
Jonah Heim, C: $2,600 – Rangers
I like Will Smith tonight as a part of a Dodgers stack as he’s gone 9-for-21 in his last four games. However, the best value at catcher tonight is Jonah Heim. For only $2600 you get the best catcher vs LHP this season. Heim has a .501 wOBA with 5 HR which leads all catchers. Kris Bubic pitched well in his last start so some people may avoid the Rangers tonight but we can ignore these stats and the fact that Vegas has given the Rangers the highest implied run total on the slate.
Carlos Santana, 1B: $2,300 –Royals
Carlos has really turned his season around the past few weeks hitting .440 with a 231 wRC+. He has a .401 wOBA vs LHP and over his career vs Martin Perez he’s 9-for-17 with 7 RBI. I will have shares of Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers but if I’m looking for value at 1B this is it here. If you want to stack the Dodgers you’ll need to play some cheap pieces with them and Santana is in a great spot to smash at a cheap price.
Gavin Lux, 2B: $3,000 – Dodgers
One of the cheaper pieces in the Dodgers lineup today is Gavin Lux. Lux is hitting .318 over the past 30 days and get’s overlooked a lot in DFS because he’s been hitting ninth. In Coors Field vs an average pitcher hitting ninth means nothing. Lux is a must for me tonight in lineups where I’m stacking Dodgers. I’d much rather go Lux than Max Muncy who’s more expensive and will be much more rostered.
Jon Berti, 3B: $3,600 – Marlins
Berti has emerged a great one-off in DFS. His .385 wOBA and 9 stolen babes over the past two weeks has made him a top point scorer for 3B even though he lacks power. Adam Wainwright has not been great his last few starts given up at least 3 ER and 3 XBH in all. I expect Berti to get on base today and if he does he’s going to run. A stolen base is worth 6 points on FanDuel.
Trea Turner, SS: $4600 – Dodgers
It’s hard to ignore the best players when they are in a groove and that’s the state Turner is in now. Over his last 11 games he’s hitting .408 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. The Dodgers play in Coors tonight and I don’t want to miss out tonight’s possible top point scorer. He’s the most expensive at the position but we can make up for that elsewhere.
Trayce Thompson, OF: $2500 – Dodgers
Since Mookie Betts went down Thompson has started three games in a row for the Dodgers. He’s 3-for-12 with 6 strikeouts but he did steal a base last night. Thompson is so cheap and for this price in a Dodgers lineup in Coors I can’t pass him up. I think we need to have a piece of this game and if you don’t want to stack the blue and white but need some value Thompson is a safe bet for opportunity tonight.
Connor Joe, OF: $3,200 – Rockies
The Dodgers will be chalky tonight but maybe it’s the Rockies who should be? They hit LHP really well at home lead by Connor Joe who’s sporting a .360 average with a 149 wRC+. For $3200 hitting leadoff Joe is solid value here. Over his last 24 at-bats he’s hitting .412 with 6 BB. Good chance Joe gets on base tonight for the home power of Grichuk and Cron.
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $4,100 –Angels
Ohtani is just a beast. I think this is going to be one of those games where the Angels hit multiple homers, they do have six players in the lineup that have homered off Giolito. Ohtani has 2 HR in 17 at-bats vs Giolito and although the Angels struggle at times to score runs tonight is the perfect leverage spot. Early ownership projections has Giolito over 30% on FanDuel because his price has dropped down to $8K. If he pitches the way he has the past few weeks we should see some long balls from the Angels and Ohtani is one of the guys likely to hit one.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Some possible showers in the Northeast that could impact the Yankees and Nationals games. Keep an eye on those ones.
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. I’m going with Tre Turner for 2+ total bases (-175) on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!
