On Friday, @rudygamble lifted the curtain on a number of new @Razzball Roto Deluxe enhancements to assist your fantasy baseball management. One of the new features added will also be useful for DFS picks – new and improved adjustments for wind.
Do you utilize our fantasy baseball tools, including Streamonator and Hittertron, to help with all your fantasy baseball decisions? If not, what are you waiting for? These tools give you everything you need to make informed roster and lineup decisions for every format. As Rudy shared on Friday, the improvements to wind factors leverage 5+ years of stadium effect on HR rates to adjust the impact more finely per park and per direction. Wind forecasts are incorporated for up to the next 4 days of games as well, so you can better prepare your week-long lineups. You think that is helpful to us in the DFS world? Let’s put it to the test.
On Friday morning, we knew wind was going to be a factor at Wrigley Field. Hittertron helped us quantify the benefit to those hitters and listed Josh Rojas as the 18th best hitter ACROSS ALL MLB. Well, we all know what he did – 3 HRs in the game. Hey Grey, why don’t we rename the tool from “Hittertron” to “Hitter-Right-On” from now on! Don’t you like how that rolls off the tongue?
Let’s see if we can leverage this new feature for our hitter recommendations today in my never-ending goal of helping you win DFS contests. As always, I look to stay away from the most obvious players and offer other players to give you an edge on the competition. LFG!
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Sandy Alcantara, SP: DK: $8,800 / FD: $10,100 – Sandy Alcantara comes in as one of Streamonator’s top SP today in a matchup with the Braves. Alcantara has been pretty solid lately with 7+ IP in his last 2 games while only giving up 1 ER in each of those contests. For the season, he’s sporting a 2.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with a 7.5 K/9 punchout rate. Despite the lower-than-normal strikeout rate, his key to success has been limiting hard contact. He is currently holding both left- and right-handed hitters to batting averages near .200. Alcantara should validate Streamonator’s endorsement and provide a solid return for our DFS squads.
Patrick Sandoval, SP: DK: $9,300 / FD: $9,500 – I’ll admit, Patrick Sandoval is not a name I tend to gravitate to in DFS but I really like his matchup today at home versus the A’s. The A’s will be looking to avenge last week’s loss to Sandoval and the Angels when he held the bay area bats to 4 hits over 6.1 IP. Patrick has been generating a 11.8% swinging strike rate and has yet to give up a long ball in his 6 starts. It also helps that the Angels have been giving plenty of run support to their SPs recently. With Oakland ranked 29th in MLB in team HRs per game, I’m confident his run of homerless games will remain intact Monday morning.
Francisco Mejia, C: DK: $3,700 / FD: $2,000 – At catcher today, I’m running with the Rays backstop in Baltimore. I expect that to be Francisco Mejia but will take Mike Zunino as well if he gets the start. Baltimore runs out Spenser Watkins today. To save you from looking him up, I’ll fill you in…0-1 over 7 starts (30 IP), 14 Ks, 15 BBs and a 5.10 ERA. We may not know much about him, but Mejia does – 2-3 with a double on the scorecard already versus Watkins. That’s good enough for me. I may even look at a Rays mini-stack today in some contests and you can be sure Mejia will be part of it.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,800 – Anthony Rizzo busted out of the gates with 9 HRs in April but has since cooled off with only 1 long ball since. Despite not going deep lately, he is still connecting with the ball, generating hits in 7 of his last 8 games. Today the Yankees welcome Johnny Cueto back to Yankee Stadium in Game 1 of the double-header. Johnny historically gets the best of him at the plate (only 5-33 lifetime) but Rizzo does have 2 HRs off Cueto in their past matchups. Despite the history, the current splits (.891 OPS versus RHP) still favor Rizzo as he takes aim at the short porch.
Kolten Wong, 2B: DK: $4,700 / FD: $3,000 – Kolten Wong has been on a roll this month, averaging 12.9 FanDuel points per game, highlighted by a 45.9-point game versus Miami last week. Today the Brewers face Nationals RHP Aaron Sanchez (7.94 ERA/1.68 WHIP), which also happens to be the batter/pitcher matchup that strongly favors Wong. Add the likelihood of a SB or two once Wong is on the basepaths and we’re looking at another double-digit effort.
Max Muncy, 3B: DK: $5,300 / FD: $3,000 – There’s no question Max Muncy has been struggling this season and therefore doesn’t get much run in DFS anymore. Today, I’m sending him some love with a selection on one of my DFS lineups. Why you ask? If you dive into the stats a bit, you’ll note his 2022 numbers versus RHP like Zach Eflin favor Muncy (3 HR and .727 OPS as compared to 0 HR and .451 OPS versus LHP). Also, he’s starting to trend upwards in May, averaging over 8 points per game in FanDuel over the past 3 weeks. This is strictly a value play for me, but a double-digit day wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Jazz Chisholm, SS: DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,200 – There is no shortage of very good SS options today and I wouldn’t blame you for going with any of them. For me today, the one that really stands out is my man @j_chisholm3. Jazz’s current season numbers versus RHP are sick: 7 HRs with a .344/.393/.708 triple slash. Against Ian Anderson head-to-head, the numbers are almost identical at .385/.385/.769. I’ll run with that any day.
Christian Yelich OF: DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,400 – Christian Yelich is working himself back to an everyday DFS player. Over the last 6 series, dating back to April 28, Yelich is averaging over 14 FanDuel points per game. This weekend against the Nationals, he continued his ascendance with a pair of 15+ point games. I already shared the goods on Aaron Sanchez so no need to go there again. Wash-Rinse-Repeat!
Cedric Mullins, OF: DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,300 – Cedric Mullins is well off his 2021 pace of 30 HRs and 30 SBs but is he unplayable in DFS? Let’s peel back the onion and look at his metrics. Believe it or not, most of his batted ball stats are equal or better than last season. His barrel rate and average exit velocity are slightly higher, average hit distance is essentially equal and xSLG is just a bit below. So, is it due to the changes to Camden Yards? Nope – moving the wall back in left field has no impact as all his HRs are to right field. Perhaps he’s just another victim of this season’s dead ball. No matter the cause, balls still fly at Camden Yards as the weather heats up and I expect we’ll see Mullins heat up just as much. If you can trade for him in your seasonal leagues, do it now and thank me later. As far as DFS, I’m also buying when the matchup favors Mullins – like today versus Corey Kluber.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Detroit and Cleveland may have to contend with some rain again, but I believe they’ll be on the field today. Wind will be a factor at NYY (out to Left/Center), BOS (out to Center), KC (in from Left/Center), SF (out to Center) and LAA (out to Center).
Doing Lines In Vegas
Last week I gave you plus odds for a San Diego win in Atlanta and a lock for Joe Musgrove going over 5.5 IP. Both hit for me (and hopefully you), so I’ll do my best to match that success here.
For my lock of the week, I’m going to bet on the wind (out to Left/Center) and pick the Yankees over the 4.5 run total in Game 1 of the double-dip.
Comments are always welcome. You can follow The Lineup Builder on Twitter at @Derek_Favret.