Welcome back to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, here to start your summer with some cash to pay for a snow cone at the pool. I’ve had some pretty good success building lineups the past few weeks so hopefully, that translates to giving you good information today. We have a 10-game slate today with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 pm ET in Washington, DC for the Braves and Nationals. We have two late games tonight, one in Seattle, and one in San Francisco.
Atlanta and Toronto are two of the hottest teams in baseball and both have juicy matchups tonight. Both teams will likely have good representation in rosters across all contests as their team totals sit at 5.26 and 5.28 respectively. On the mound, we have some solid options at the top tier with Sandy Alcantara leading the way at $11.3K. Sandy has been lights-out, allowing just three ER in his last six starts while pitching eight or more innings in five of those six. However, he has the toughest matchup of the top tier pitchers vs Philadelphia. Some other news today is that Lance Lynn is scheduled to make his season debut for the White Sox. Maybe that was planned to ease him back into things as he gets the Tigers, the worst offense in the majors. He’s pitched 10 innings in three minor league starts and given up 10 ER, so tread lightly on that $5.5K price tag. All right, you ready to win some money with me? Come on, let’s go!
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Manoah has started 11 games this season and has 10 quality starts. His K rate is nothing impressive but solid at 22.4%. He only has 13 BB in 69.2 innings and limits hard contact to 20%, best on the slate. Baltimore has a 23.7% K rate and a .300 wOBA on the season both bottom-10 in the majors. Ryan Mountcastle does have two HR in seven at-bats vs Manoah, but Alek should have no problem mowing down the O’s in Canada.
Normally I don’t highlight two top-tier pitchers but tonight I have to. Nola has a 29% K rate and a 3% BB rate this season in 74 innings, both elite numbers. Christian Javier is the only pitcher on the slate with a higher K rate at 30%. Even though the Marlins hate their teammate Jazz Chisholm, he’s got some pop and it’s rubbed off on the rest of the team as they have hit 18 homers in the past two weeks which ranks eighth in the majors during that span. However, these fish have a 23.9% K rate on the season (24th) and Nola, who typically opts for cheesesteaks, is going for sushi tonight. The implied run total for the Marlins is 3.5, third-lowest on the slate.
If you’re looking for value on this slate Rony Garcia is the one guy I like. Yes, he pitches for Detroit and this is the White Sox, but this isn’t their best lineup. Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, and Eloy Jimenez are out and Gavin Sheets just got DFA. I’m not looking to break the slate with this pick but I think 30 points is in reach for Garcia. Using Garcia would allow us to stack both the Braves and Blue Jays if you want to go that route. Garcia has worked his way up to five innings in back-t0-back starts both vs good teams in the Yankees and Twins. The key metric I’m looking at here is his 30% K rate in 28 innings. If we get another five innings with five to seven strikeouts, this is worth the value. Don’t go crazy here, but I’ll have a few shares in GPPs for sure.
He’s up and he’s playing. Back-t0-back starts for the top prospect going 1-for-7 and he should be in the lineup tonight vs Kyle Bradish. Anytime we get a minimum priced hitter in the Blue Jays lineup you should play him, or I’ll play him if you don’t want to. The Jays are one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball right now and it’s no surprise, they just took a while to warm up. Kyle Bradish has a 43% hard contact rate, worst on the slate, and over his past two starts, he has 15% BB rate. Those numbers look mighty enticing to stack against.
Walk this way baby! It’s Christian Walker time. The snakes get Mike Minor today who has been pretty bad. Christian Walker is hitting .300 over the past two weeks and has a .318 ISO vs LHP in 50 at-bats this season, third behind only Goldschmidt and Guerrero Jr at the first base position. Mike Minor has surrendered 5 HR and 3 BB in 8 innings since returning from the IL and Walker may add to that HR total tonight.
Although I do like Ketel Marte and throwing more snakes at Mike Minor, Jose Altuve is hard to pass up tonight. The Astros have been one of the best hitting teams vs LHP the past few seasons and although they started off slow in 2022, they’re climbing the ladder now. Over the past two weeks, they have a 153 wRC+ with a 13% K rate best in the majors. When balls get put into play good things happen. Altuve is hitting lead0ff for a team with a 5.05 implied run total. He has 5 HR vs LHP this season which is third best in the majors, tied with Aaron Judge. Altuve is 3-for-10 vs Taylor Hearn with a HR. There is a good chance he makes that number climb to two tonight.
Since being recalled from the minors, Biggio has made a case for regular playing time in a crowded lineup. Over the past two weeks, he’s second on the team with a .485 OBP. Yes, we want guys to hit the long ball in DFS but I’ll be stacking Jays tonight and this price is nice. We mentioned Kyle Bradish and his poor numbers already and if we are ok playing Moreno, we should be ok with playing Biggio.
We have some pricey SS on the slate tonight and I already mentioned Blue Jays so I don’t need to tell you Bo Bichette is in play but I do need to tell you about Swanson. Since he got moved to batting second in the order he’s been smashing. In the last 28 games he’s hitting .342 with 18 runs and 19 RBI. Josiah Gray has done well missing bats with a 26.9% K rate but he’s also surrendered 14 HR, most on the slate. You want some Braves today and Swanson is one you got to have.
Before we get to the big bats I wanted to give you some value. Yes, the Tigers suck and yes, they are the worst offense in the majors but don’t blame Victor Reyes for that who’s only played 12 games. He’s batting lead-off for minimum price against Lance Lynn who I don’t think is quite ready to dominate yet. Remember I told you about this 10 ER in 10 innings during his rehab? Reyes leads the team with a .345 wOBA and a .313 batting average. He’s had two steal attempts so far but I expect that number to climb if he continues to bat first. I think Detroit can put up some runs today (Austin Meadows is back, so that helps) and Reyes could score some runs here.
Another Blue Jay on the list today. This one, pretty cheap as well. LGJ is hitting .405 with a 190 wRC+ over the past two weeks, that’s top-1o in the majors. The Jays should be flying high tonight and will be praising the Lo(u)rd(es) tonight.
The Braves will be popular tonight and for good reason. If they are going to hit their 5.26 implied run total it starts with Ronald. He’s the most talented player on the team and is hitting .351 with a 216 wRc+ in his last 45 at-bats. He’s hit 4 HR in that span and today could be one of those multi-homer days we see him have a few times a year. Gray does lead all pitchers on the slate with 14 HR. Don’t overthink this one, play RAJ!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. Blue Jays run line (-1.5) at (-142) odds is easy money tonight.
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!