If you’ve got a younger sibling, you may remember those days when you’d take advantage of your physical/athletic superiority over them. You’d feel really big and bad if you could out-wrestle them; you’d let them get leads on you when playing sports at home, only to come back and take the lead and win at the end, crushing their hopes that they’d finally take down big bro (or big sis). But was there ever a time when little bro/sis finally grew and improved enough that they were the ones doing the whupping? If you can empathize with that, you know how poor Austin Nola must feel now that Aaron Nola (FD $10,300/DK $10,300) is a bad, bad man.

In fact, that’s probably how most of the Padres will feel after this outing. Fernando Tatis Jr. still hasn’t been cleared to swing a bat, and stalwart 3B Manny Machado is still out with an ankle injury, leaving…who, exactly, to strike fear into Nola? The OF rotation of Jose Azocar and Nomar Mazara? The Padres have done well to stay in contention in the NL West despite dealing with some injuries to important people, but Nola is different. In my Top 100 ranks, Nola is elite (top 10%) in four of the six metrics; really, the worst thing you may be able to say about him is he gives up a little too much in-zone contact. But Nola is 30th in MLB in avoiding Hard Contact, and has an absurd 3.2% BB%. When you hit it, you probably won’t hit it hard; he won’t walk you; and he’s going to strike you out about 30% of the time as well. Austin, you’ve got a family emergency today–Aaron’s coming to town.

New to DFS?  You can start playing right now on FanDuel and put our picks to the test.  If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!

 

Alex Cobb, SP: FD $7,600/DK $8,300 – As mentioned in the comments of my Top 100 starters article, Cobb is elite in xFIP, SIERA and CSW%, and he’s top-20% in K-BB%. He’s pitched so much better the results he’s received, and it’s time the baseball gods start repaying him in his home start vs. Cincinnati and their next-to-last road OPS. That’s worse than the Rockies!

Will Smith, C: FD $2,900/DK $5,600 – Smith’s been slapping the ball around the park the last week, collecting eight hits in his last 22 ABs. He hasn’t accrued a ton of counting stats with them, but that’s more unlucky circumstance, as the Dodgers will be on base and score enough where it’s just a matter of when it’ll be his turn to have people on base in front of him. And I’m not one to start rumors, but I heard his opponent on the mound, Ian Anderson, asked his bald grandpa how far up he goes when washing his face. That’s bulletin board material, Will.

Jared Walsh, 1B: FD $3,100/DK $3,600 – I feel like I constantly pick Jared Walsh as my 1B because I always feel like he’s at a really affordable price for a dude he’s a righty bopper (.830 OPS vs RHPs, 120 points more than vs. LHPs). Walsh has eight hits in his last seven days and Halos fans are hoping Walsh’s Friday night is spent Flexen all over Chris and the Mariners.

Nolan Gorman, 2B: FD $3,100/DK $3,700 – Gorman bounces around the lineup some, but against a RHP usually 2nd or 5th, which are terrific spots for gaining those ABs, runs, and RBI that can propel DFS goodness. Gorman’s hit three HRs over his last 22 ABs, and he’s hosting Kyle Hendricks. Crack open a Busch!

Nolan Arenado, 3B: FD $3,600/DK $5,300 – In this week’s edition of Small Sample Size, Arenado has 37 ABs vs. Kyle Hendricks and has bombed him three times. In this week’s edition of Even Smaller Sample Size, Arenado has three bombs the past 23 ABs, along with five runs and seven RBI. He’s hot and he’s facing a pitcher he traditionally loves to see.

Corey Seager, SS: FD $3,500/DK $5,200 – Seager has a pair of homers over his last seven days, along with six runs scored. “Ma, looks like Corey’s doing that thing again where he’s heating up!” yelled Kyle from his parents’ basement.

Cedric Mullins, OF: FD $3,200/DK $4,700 – Mullins isn’t ripping the ball right now, but he’s still stealing bags (three in his last seven games), leading off, and scoring runs. He’s also facing Michael Kopech, whose Statcast and advanced stats say he should be crashing harder than the U.S. economy. Streamonator has him ranked 9th overall for today’s games.

Julio Rodriguez, OF: FD $3,600/DK $5,500 – What a rookie debut so far for J-Rod, and it just keeps getting better as he’s got 11 hits, a homer, and two bags over his last seven games. It’s just so fun to play him, perhaps because he so often rewards us. Streamonator has J-Rod 12th overall today.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF: FD $3,000/DK $4,900 – To crib Gray, “And Teoscar for the hottest Jay goes to…” Hernandez has three HRs and eight RBI his last seven days. “Houser ‘bout making it four or five HRs?” asks Milwaukee’s Adrian. OK, you drive a hard bargain, but we’ll accept your terms.

 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

@BallparkWeather tells me that there are no issues outside of some possible showers/storms toward the end of COL @ MIN, but it thinks they will hold off until after the game ends, so we should be full speed ahead for today’s slate.

 

Stacks on Stacks on Stacks

You could call me crazy for suggesting this, but Detroit is 4th in MLB in OPS the last seven days, and they’re in Arizona facing Merrill Kelly. Javy Baez is scorching, Streamonator likes Riley Greene and Victor Reyes (he’s been leading off) today. Likewise, the Snakes are facing Rony Garcia, so Christian Walker, Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho and Josh Rojas could be terrific plays as well. Neither of these stacks should cost you a ton of money.

A Rangers stack vs. Washington’s Paolo Espino could be a fun one, with Semien, Seagar, Adolis Garcia, and Ezequiel Duran all being reasonably priced. Texas is 6th in OPS over the last week (facing Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, and Tarik Skubal, who have all had really nice years so far).

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martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

thanks again for all your help.

Grey’s advice is to sell Pablo Lopez. What do you think about trading him? If you think that it is a good idea about trading him who would you recommend trying to get? For example, would you try and get any of the following Joe Musgrove, Jordan Montgomery, Martin Perez, Yu Darvish or Alek Manoah. these are just examples. For any of these or one that you would select, would you throw in a regular player to move Lopez?

Lopez’s next two starts are on the road against StLouis and Washington. what are your recommendations for starting him against StLouis and Washington?

i am much looking into your opinion on this question.

thanks!!

martin

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

being a fantasy Geek, i was if you ever analyzed the any correlation between predicted Razz Dollars and actual. i know that you do it for individual players i meant that, if you see plus $7.00, then x % of the time you will remain positive.

For example, i was looking at Alex Wood of the Giants. He was given a negative dollar rating or .8$ rating on six occasions. In all of those six ratings, his negative actual ratings were even lower negative dollars Thus, 100% of the times that he had a negative ranking that his actual performance was lower. He was given a positive dollar rating on eight occasions. on those eight events, his actual rating was positive on five of the eight or 61%. in summary, if he is given a negative then you have no chance of getting significant points. If the rating is positive, then you have a six in 10 chance that you can get significant points. Thoughts?

thanks.

martin

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

You are way ahead of me on this one, brother!

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Hoove,

i real honored to be the first question on the site today.

1. i was going to sit Cristian Javier of Houston at NY on Saturday against Garret Cole. Do you agree? Am i being too conservative?

2. Javier’s next start after NY is home against the Angels. I was going to start him. Do you agree?

3. I was going to start KC’s Brady Singer at home against Oakland’s Kaprielian. I was also going to start him on the road at Detroit (Michael Pideda). Thoughts?

thanks!

martin

Hoove
Hoove
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hey Martin,

I’d sit Javier against NYY, but I could see you trotting him out vs LAA.

Play Singer at home vs OAK, and I’m inclined to pitch him against DET too, though they’ve been hitting better lately.

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
Reply to  Hoove
1 month ago

thanks for your advice. i followed your advice and picked up Pivetta and Springs. Both Pivetta and Springs haveworked out well and have been pitching well, as you know.

as you appreciate, it is so much fun to pick up a player off waivers and they do well!!

i am right now at plus 79 innings which means that i would lose the last 11 games. Technically, they only allow 9 innings.

i have Burnes at home against Toronto and Mikolas at home against the Cubs. i was going to start both of them. Do you agree?

Any advice on inning management would be much appreciated!!

thanks again for all your insight!!

martin