Happy Wednesday! We have an interesting MLB DFS slate on tap tonight with an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. This article is focused on FanDuel picks using the Razzball DFS Tools to share some of the top plays of the slate. To dig deeper into the slate or to see the best plays on DraftKings, sign up for our DFS tools!  We’re kicking off the picks today with Jazz Chisholm ($4,100).  I like targeting the Marlins vs. Erick Fedde tonight. Fedde over his career has a 4.45 xFIP and allows 1.56 HR/9.  Jazz is my favorite overall play today. Is $4,100 expensive? Yeah, but we are paying for .388 ISO against a gas can of a pitcher. My approach with second base is to either pay up or punt. If I pay up, I want someone who can hit for power, which Chisholm has shown. If I punt, I am hoping it’s someone that bats near the top of the order that can get a hit and a run to make value. 

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Joe Ryan, SP: $9,200 – For the price, Joe Ryan is my upside pick at starting pitcher on this slate. He has a 26.7% strikeout rate, the Twins are a strong favorite in this game, and the Tigers as a team have an ISO 0f .097, limiting the chances of doing significant damage to Ryan.

Jordan Montgomery, SP: $7,800 – This is my favorite value pitcher on the slate. The Yankees are a strong favorite and he has a career 23.1% strikeout rate. The Orioles have the lowest ISO (.091), and the second-highest strikeout rate (26.3%) in the league. Montgomery should be in line for a win and hopefully a quality start and getting some strikeouts along the way tonight.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B: $2,400 –  I spoke previously about Erick Fedde and why targeting Marlins against him is a good idea.  Aguilar is the right price and in the last two seasons has a .190 ISO and .330 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Aguilar projects to hit in the top half of the order, and if he does that, he could provide excellent value on the slate.

Matt Olson, 1B: $3,800 – Matt Olson is my high upside pick at first base today. The Braves are facing Mark Leiter Jr., who has a career 4.40 xFIP, 11.6% K-BB% (2.9% so far this year). Leiter has allowed 2.0 HR/9 over the course of his career. Olson has a .330 wOBA and .230 ISO against right handed pitching the last two seasons and the Braves in general are in a great spot here tonight against Mark Leiter Jr

Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,200 – Third base is a tough one on this slate. Michael Wacha’s 1.88 at first glance may look like an avoid but his underlying 4.14 xFIP tells a different story. Last year he had a 5.05 ERA and a 42.7% hard hit rate. Yes, he is off to a good start, but I am going to need more of a sample size before I buy into Wacha’s improvement. Chapman has just as much upside as anyone else on the slate at 3B but comes in as the sixth most expensive option. 

Brandon Crawford, SS: $2,900 – I am not a believer in Paul Blackburn, the pitcher the Giants are facing today. In 153 innings pitched in his career, he has a 4.42 xFIP allows 1.06 HR/9. Yes, he is off to a great start with a 1.80 ERA and 2.10 xFIP but I am going to weigh the 153 inning sample size larger than the 15 inning sample size. Crawford is off to a slow start. He has just a .314 on base percentage and .113 ISO, much lower than his .373 on base percentage and .224 ISO of 2021. The Giants are sneaky a low owned GPP option, however, Crawford at under $3K provides some value for us even in cash games. It is not easy to find value short stops with home run upside. 

Joey Gallo, OF: $2,400- Joey Gallo is the ultimate boom-bust type of play. He is capable of hitting three home runs in a game and he is capable of striking out five times in a game. And if the game is long enough, perhaps he does both ha! Gallo has a career on base percentage of .331 and ISO of .277. He’s also batting left handed in Yankee stadium. We saw what Anthony Rizzo was able to pull off last night. Tonight, that could be Gallo! Tyler Wells has allowed 2.25 HR/9 this season so far (1.52 on his career) and he has a 5.24 xFIP so far (4.25 on his career). The Yankees are a good team to roster and Gallo is one of the most affordable options.

Alex Dickerson, OF: $2,100 – Alex Dickerson is a platoon bat with a career .216 ISO against right handed pitching. I expect him to bat 6th or 7th. He is nearly minimum priced with as much home run upside as anyone on the slate. There is a risk he could get pinch hit for later in the game. The A’s do have four left handed pitchers in the bullpen. Even if he gets two plate appearances against Blackburn and even if Blackburn is that dude, Dickerson could still make value relatively easily at a $2,100 price tag.

 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

The weather looks great today, no rainout concerns on the slate!

 

Doing Lines In Vegas

I like the Red Sox (+125) tonight.