Corner Report: Third Base Preview

I participated in my home league draft recently. It’s not an expert league, or an industry league, or anything like that. It’s just a normal group of people, one of whom is my 71 year old dad who took pitchers with his first 8 picks. Random things happen, but here’s where the corners went by round in a 14 team OBP league:

Round 1: Jose Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Round 2: Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Rafael Devers

Round 3: Austin Riley, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Pete Alonso, Manny Machado

Round 4: None! So it’s get one early or wait.

Round 5: Jordan Westburg but as a 2B

Round 6: Josh Naylor, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman

Round 7: Triston Casas, Junior Caminero; now we move past pick 100 for reference

Round 8: Christian Walker, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jake Burger

Round 9: Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz

Round 10: Royce Lewis (autopick), Matt Chapman

Round 11: Alec Bohm

Round 12: Matt Shaw, Paul Goldschmidt (lol)

Round 13: Michael Busch, Spencer Steer, Eugenio Suarez, Nolan Arenado, Nathaniel Lowe

Round 14: none

After 200 notables: Christopher Morel 198 (Cub fan bias, ignore Morel), Ryan Mountcastle 245

Maybe that’s helpful for you as you enter draft season. Based on this draft, and confirmed in Razzslam and TGFBI, if you don’t get a top bat in the corners just sit for a while and get other good players. There are a lot of options later.

Let’s jump right to it. Here are over 1000 more words on several third basemen.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Draft all the 3B you can handle in a Razzball Commenter League, like THIS ONE drafting this Friday (3/21) at 8 PM ET that needs one more manager to join!  Just click the link, and you’re in!

Elite Elite:

Jose Ramirez: Has the perfect blend of every category and has shown no signs of slowing down. Draft him in the first round with absolute confidence.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Qualifies here and he’s a slam dunk in the first round. I’m not sure why he’s slipped. He’s an elite four category contributor with eligibility in two positions that lack elite options. I’d take Vladito in the top five. In TGFBI, I was thrilled to find him available at pick ten. But hey, if you don’t like elite numbers, you do you!

Good Elite:

Why is Rafael Devers getting faded? He’s only 29 and has been a steady .270 hitter with 30 bombs for like, ever. There was a dip due to shoulder soreness due to diving on defense. Maybe he shouldn’t hustle? He’s the third rated third baseman here. There’s .290/40 HR with 200 combined runs/RBI combined. There are only a few players like that available at all.

Update: well, he’s behind on his spring progression. Keep an eye on this guy.

Austin Riley: Also is due to rebound. He posted 16 HR and a .942 OPS in the 57 games right before his season ended due to a hit by pitch. He’ll be his normal 35-40 HR, 100 RBI self.

Manny Machado will be fine by the end of the season after he gets through his Annual Extended Slump. Last year was May, where he had a .280 OBP and 1 lonely dinger. 2023 was also May. 2022 he hit one in July. 2021, looks like August! Well if you keep going backwards here, his cold streak is getting earlier and earlier, so maybe now it just can’t get earlier and it just won’t happen. Anyway. Take Machado, he’s good.

I Don’t Trust These Guys

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been around a .240-.250 bat until the end of the season in New  York. Pardon my skepticism if I go with the larger sample size of five years compared to two months! Then, factor in his games played (last year’s 147 was a career high by 20) and there’s really no reason to draft this guy in the first two rounds. Why would you do that to yourself? He’s got steals, but everyone has them nowadays. I can see the case for him, I just disagree here. Just feels like his price is too high after his career season.

Jordan Westburg: Just don’t trust a guy with a 4% walk rate (reduced from 7% the year before). He’s also battling possibly mattress induced back issues this preseason. I just see him not progressing from what he did last year. Draft him expecting that and you won’t be disappointed. He’s unfortunately being drafted assuming he’ll progress, which will not happen barring a plate approach adjustment.

Royce Lewis: 58 games and 82 games. ACL, ACL again, oblique, hamstring, quad, groin, quad again. I’m not sure his legs will hold up….and he’s already hurt in Spring Training.

Guys I’d Be Comfortable Starting

Junior Caminero: Risky to count on a rookie, but the guy has the pedigree and put up a 119 WRC+ at age 20. I don’t play in a WRC+ league, but it does reflect some high level talent. He’s projected for around 30 HR and a batting average in the .250s. That’s by computer models. If you go to projections by real life people like Grey, the average is .264, and the RBI and runs in the 80s. That’s a baseline for what to expect, and guys with his level of talent can break through that wall. Draft with the unwarranted confidence of Elon Musk rizzing up baddies.

Alex Bregman: Boston is a good spot for him. I’m looking for the batting average to increase in a salary drive season. If he can avoid a slow start like he had last season, a .280 average with mid 20s home runs and a good supporting lineup.

Mark Vientos: I like Vientos, and think he’ll be a solid player. There’s a lot of positive conversation, so just going to point out that he was a dead fastball hitter last season (.329, 18 HR) and not so good against breakers (.169, 6 HR). I don’t know why you’d throw Vientos a heater so he’ll probably have some sort of adjustment. He’s in the bottom 4th percentile for whiffs and does strike out 30% of the time. Probably safe with the power, but there is a massive batting average risk here. Draft him, but make sure you address the average to balance him out.

Alec Bohm: Pure average and RBI play. Not as good as Luis Arraez, but he’ll be around 90 ribbies and that’s not bad. He would be a good corner infielder slot guy if you had Vientos and, say, Matt Olson at first base.

Possible Breakouts

Josh Jung: Look, I know I did this last season but hear me out. Before he was hit by a pitch in the wrist, he was hitting over .400. No I don’t care that it was only in four games, that doesn’t fit my narrative. Where we really should look is September, after the rust was shaken off. .286/.355/.464 for that month was the total. Look, I know caveats apply, but if you liked Jung last season there’s ample reason to regurgitate the feeling again in 2025.

Isaac Paredes: Fellow Cub fans will not remember I-Suck Paredes fondly from his time in Chicago. There’s good reason for that. He was bad. Wrigley Field did not play well for offense last season, and Paredes became a train wreck when he came to bat and the wind was always blowing in. He has a very high fly ball percentage, and not a lot of exit velocity, so his approach was just awful for how things played out. Houston has no such concerns, and he should be able to return to his 30 HR ways directly. Don’t worry about last season. It was just a blip.

Christopher Morel: Let’s say that you were changing your approach for something for the better. The results aren’t there, but it’s promised that they’ll come if you keep the process. The process continues to not work, and you panic and abandon the process. That was Morel with a plate approach last season. Maybe, just maybe, Tampa Bay will reign him in.

Connor Norby: The former East Carolina Pirate will man third base in Miami. He was a top 100 guy but really needs to work on the 33% strikeout rate if he’s going to be worth owning. If he does, he can use his top notch speed to run wild in Florida. Spec play, sure, but he had his adjustment period last season. Worth a shot.

Prospects: Not going to pretend I know these guys, we have an Itch for all things like Matt Shaw and Coby Mayo. Once they get up, then they’ll get ranked and the funsies. Right now Matt Shaw is competing for the Cubs spot, and Mayo seems unlikely to break with Baltimore but should be the first man up if needed.

The Ranks: