We are in the thick of draft season now and we have real, live draft data to sift through. Numbers nerds, assemble! We have spreadsheets, charts, and ADP, oh my! It was a busy week here at Razzball Commenter Leagues HQ but I’ve gone through each league that has drafted and added their drafts to a master spreadsheet in order to calculate RCL ADP. We’ve had 21 leagues draft already! That’s plenty enough to start drawing some conclusions from. We have plenty more leagues to fill up, including some spots in some money leagues which tend to be a little more competitive (including one of the most competitive! If you’ve ever wanted in one of the top leagues, come join DFSers Anonymous, drafting Thursday 3/20 at 9 PM ET), as well as some free league openings (including one for our European pals, or morning folks drafting Sunday, March 23rd at 1 PM ET play with RCL guru, VinWins in this one).
PSA: We don’t want to have any leagues get axed, so if you notice your league is not full the day of or day before the draft, hit us up on socials: @Razzball or @MattTruss and let us know. You can also leave a comment in Grey’s most recent post and/or invite a friend to join. I know, sacrilege to tell your fantasy baseball friends you read Razzball, but sharing is caring. Speaking of sharing, jump below and I’ll share with you a fancy RCL ADP spreadsheet for your perusing pleasure.
DRAFT TRENDS
We’ve got 21 leagues’ worth of draft data to peek at. Being first to draft means first to be criticized, so we’ll dive into the numbers and see what’s going on in the early draft season.
THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2025 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS…
Shohei Ohtani (10) – Not much of a surprise here, it’s been either him or Bobby Witt Jr. everywhere but the one league where Jeff Hoffman randomly went 1.01. Must have been a queue error. The appeal of some dual Ohtani action keeps him in the number one spot. I’m definitely concerned we only see him hit this year and that he doesn’t run as much, but I can’t fault anyone for taking him one overall. He’s too good. What a shame that he and Acuna are both coming back from injury and both could be running less.
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 21 league sample of some guys I’m lusting for this year and some general notes. If there’s an ADP you’re curious about for my next update, fire away and I’ll add them to the chart next time out. This time around I decided to look at some of the kids everyone is excited to draft as well as some soon to be AARP members.
PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Skenes | 16.52 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
James Wood | 41.19 | 30 | 49 | 19 |
Junior Caminero | 80.24 | 51 | 104 | 53 |
Spencer Schwellenbach | 88 | 62 | 114 | 52 |
Roki Sasaki | 94.52 | 69 | 130 | 61 |
Dylan Crews | 112.29 | 84 | 131 | 47 |
Jasson Dominguez | 118.24 | 87 | 142 | 55 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 137.76 | 109 | 172 | 63 |
Jared Jones | 139.38 | 93 | 166 | 73 |
Colton Cowser | 141.76 | 77 | 170 | 93 |
Jackson Holliday | 166.38 | 128 | 202 | 74 |
Matt Shaw | 184.76 | 79 | 231 | 152 |
Connor Norby | 239.38 | 163 | 297 | 134 |
Kristian Campbell | 247.1 | 201 | 300 | 99 |
Skenes is a meteor, a consensus top 24 pick and he somehow seems worth the price.
I’m very interested in Wood and Crews and seeing how these two shake out this year. I am yet to grab any Crews shares, but I need to get at least one in case he goes full Chourio on us.
I am fully in on Roki Sasaki. I already have multiple Roki teams ready to go and am excited to see him pitch tomorrow.
There are some real, “get your guy” picks going on with Cowser and Shaw there, wowza. ADP is a social construct, so if you want a player, take them.
Jackson Holliday seems like a pick we’re all going to look back on and wonder what we were doing letting him fall this far. I know there are holes in that swing, but other superstars have struggled their first season only to take off year two. I think I’ve talked myself into adding some MI shares of Holliday.
Now, out with the new, in with the old:
PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Freddie Freeman | 25.43 | 13 | 33 | 20 |
Jose Altuve | 43.81 | 31 | 59 | 28 |
Chris Sale | 49.33 | 37 | 67 | 30 |
Mike Trout | 88.24 | 58 | 112 | 54 |
Sonny Gray | 121.33 | 92 | 150 | 58 |
Paul Goldschmidt | 171.76 | 134 | 204 | 70 |
Nolan Arenado | 214.95 | 156 | 263 | 107 |
Max Scherzer | 265.05 | 211 | 300 | 89 |
Justin Verlander | 294.52 | 238 | 300 | 62 |
Charlie Morton | 296.05 | 257 | 300 | 43 |
Clayton Kershaw | 299.52 | 290 | 300 | 10 |
Outside of Mike Trout, this is a depressing list of players I’m fading entirely. Even with Trout, you know you are only drafting him for a maximum of three months of stats. He broke my heart last year and I’m ready to be hurt again.
I do have one share of Chris Sale so far to diversify my pitching portfolio, but I don’t love it.
Clayton Kershaw has only been drafted in one league so far. What a fall for one of the best of a generation.
Any of these vets you’re nervous about drafting?
If you made it this far, you earn a reward. I told you I was a numbers nerd. Now you can take a look at any player you want as more and more data is collected. I’ll be keeping that sheet up to date as I collect draft data, so bookmark it and check back often. Next, head down to the spreadsheet below and fill up some more leagues so we have even more data to chew through!
TO JOIN A LEAGUE
Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and voila, you’re in. If you’re not signed up at Fantrax, you need to do that too (it’s free). Damn, that’s too easy. Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference. That’s it! You can join as many leagues as you like. If you accidentally join a league, you can quit a league by going to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom). Now go join some leagues!
Want to be my internet pal? That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me on the bluest of skies: @matttruss.bsky.social
Watch Hoffman win the Cy Young, and that pick becomes legend!! Ohtani on pace for 80 bombs! ?
Couldn’t let Enrique show him up!
Ha, I’m writing a few blurbs for my post this week and I swear just wrote almost the exact same thing about Holliday… I swear I didn’t copy it ha ha! Great minds and all!
Hi – whom do you prefer for spec saves – Orion Kerkering or Jason Adam?
Probably kerkering given the depth of the SD pen.
The imaginatively named RCL#24 needs YOU! Yes, you.
How much more depressed are you about Freeman now than you were when you initially wrote this article? I’m trying to decide whether I need to avoid him altogether when I draft in an hour…
i would
35 is full again.
good, keep me from joining yet another RCL
Not sure why you’re just now telling us the 2023 #1 pick!
definitely not copy/pasting headings
Make sure to copy and paste your draft rankings/tiers from 2023 for your DFS draft this Thursday …