Whenever spring training starts to wind down and the closer spot is yet to be determined, it’s never a good thing. It causes rosters to get fat off the land, and wastes your draft picks on no-news type situations. I will turn my one good lazy eye to the Minute Maid conundrum of “who closes for the Astros?” Some may ask: “who cares?” But this is the essence of SAGNOF believers. Cheap closers are what makes the fantasy world get on a sit, spin, chug a beer, and scream obscenities at trolley cars. So from the beginning of the hot-stove baseball season, and even after they signed Luke Gregerson, I believe that it’s still Chad Qualls‘ job. No news is good news for the incumbent… Even though the news all across the reliever landscape is all speculation, “he said this” and “the beat writer said that”. Well, the only person who actually knows is the manager, Hinch. So I am going to do my best to break it down from my ivory soap tower. Stick around, there may be something fun or edible once you get inside.
So I went number-diving on all three options in Houston. Because for all intents and purposes, Pat Neshek is in the conversation after last year’s performance, and to be honest, he was the best out of the three most recently. The thing that jumps out to me as to why people don’t love Qualls is his lack of K potential (7.54 K/9 last year and never above 8.7 in his career). The no K love makes sense, he ranked outside the top-100 in eligible qualifiers on the year. The other thing people are knocking him for are his blown saves. He did have six last year, but if there is a silver lining, four of them were with the A’s. Now, any blown save is bad, but shift over to Luke Gregerson for a minute and he had eight blown saves in far less-pressure situations as the non-closer in Oakland last year. Sticking with Gregerson, his K/9 (7.34) was actually less then what Qualls produced!
So digging deeper for Qualls, let’s actually compare him apples-to-apples against another closer. Qualls is a pitch-to-contact pitcher, as is Zach Britton. I am not here to say that Qualls is better than Britton, he isn’t, but there are similarities. Their FIP numbers and xFIP numbers are identical, and of the two, Qualls has the better K-rate and walk rate. Now he does have veteran preference on his side, and has more career saves than everyone on the roster combined. I just think he gets shown the keys and says you can drive to the dance, but if you start pitching like you’re drunk, then we have a DD in Luke Gregerson. So draft accordingly, and bad closer situations always require a cuff.
$12 Salads
You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.
1. Aroldis Chapman – (Jumbo Diaz, Sam LeCure)
2. Craig Kimbrel – (Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson)
3. Greg Holland – (Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera)
4. David Robertson – (Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Zach Duke)
Donkeycorns
Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.
5. Cody Allen -(Bryan Shaw, Scott Atchison)
6. Dellin Betances – (Andrew Miller, David Carpenter)
7. Mark Melancon -(Tony Watson, Antonio Bastardo)
8. Trevor Rosenthal -(Jordan Walden, Seth Maness)
9. Drew Storen – (Casey Janssen, Aaron Barrett)
10. Huston Street – (Joe Smith, Cam Bedrosian)
11. Steve Cishek – (A.J. Ramos, Aaron Crow)
12. Jonathan Papelbon – (Ken Giles, Jake Diekman)
13. Fernando Rodney – (Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen)
14. Koji Uehara – (Edward Mujica, Junichi Tazawa)
15. Zach Britton – (Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter)
16. Glen Perkins – (Casey Fien, Caleb Thielbar)
17. Francisco Rodriguez, (Jonathan Broxton, Will Smith)
18. Joaquin Benoit – (Kevin Quackenbush, Dale Thayer)
19. Neftali Feliz – (Kyuji Fujikawa, Shawn Tolleson)
20. Hector Rondon – (Jason Motte, Neil Ramirez)
Brain Freezes
I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Carlos Marmol– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Castro in the head with a pick-off throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.
21. Brad Boxberger – (Jake McGee (INJ), Ernesto Frieri, Grant Balfour)
22. Jenrry Mejia – (Bobby Parnell, Vic Black, Jeurys Familia)
23. Santiago Casilla – (Sergio Romo, Jean Machi)
24. Addison Reed – (Brad Ziegler, Evan Marshall)
25. LaTroy Hawkins – (Adam Ottavino, Rex Brothers)
26. Chad Qualls – (Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek)
27. Tyler Clippard – (Sean Doolittle, Ryan Cook)
28. Brandon League– (Joel Peralta, J.P. Howell)
29. Brett Cecil – (Aaron Sanchez, Steve Delabar)
30. Joe Nathan – (Joakim Soria, Al Alburquerque)
Hey sir, I read the manager of the rays talking about using Jepsen in the most high leverage situations.
I also read there may be monetary reasons the rays wouldn’t want to have boxberger closing games this season. Not sure how that works or why or if it’s even true. Is there any basis to this?
i heard rumblings regarding Jepsen. I have McGee/Boxberger in Yahoo! Friends & Family and picked up Jepsen a couple days ago as an additional handcuff.
@Rudy Gamble: thx. What I was reading was that the rays are likely going to try to use Balfour since he’s getting the big $, and to keep boxbergers arbitration number low, it’s unlikely boxberger would close games this year?
@Rudy Gamble: Dang Rudy that’s a lot of roster space for 30-35 saves. Hope you have the guys at the right time in your lineup.
@the swinging: def monetary reasons there. Boxberger has the best stuff there, Jepsen second. It seems like a lot of postering and spring training drive to get players to perform better. It could be a mixed bag until McGee gets back and that’s bad for rostering purposes
Smokey –
Always appreciate your late inning expertise. 6×6 (holds) 14 team league, 32 man rosters, so it’s deep. We start up to 12 Pitchers, so MR depth becomes critical. Usually, MR is my secret weapon but league is on to my shenanigans, so I didn’t get a lot of the targets I wanted this year… Wanted to get your quick take on these MR FREE AGENTS and see if you would make any add/drops to my current roster. I’m going for skills, high k/9 types,who accumulate holds with decent upside to potentially ‘close’.
Current MR Roster:
Adam Ottavino
AJ Ramos
Neil Ramirez
Dominic Leone
Brandon Maurer
Carlos Martinez (not sure what Cards are doing with him yet)
DL – Doolittle.
FREE AGENTS:
Evan Marshall
Aaron Barrett
Bruce Rondon
Chris Hatcher
If I could roster them all, I would… cause I could make an argument for each, but wanted your take.
Thanks,
@EL BURRO: I like Marshall better than I do Leone, especially with everyone in the desert hurting
@Smokey:
Thanks for reply- will jump on that. Also, I think Im moving off Maurer, given the Pads pen depth and gonna stash Bruce Rondon, who is throwing 100mph and harnessing the fantasy gods of control. Could see him moving up quickly in DET.
Lastly, adding Barrett too – see big things for him this year. Watched a lot of him last year in WAS. Saw you mentioned him somewhere in an earlier post. Like his stuff.
@EL BURRO: Check back tomorrow more on Barrett. rondon is starting to get some good pub and is looking nice in that third seat for los tigres
lost cook to manager and AAA. same league as above
20 man dynasty H2H league with holds/relief appearances/ complete games/ shutouts/double plays/k per 9/ relief wins/ QS for pitchers and we can have either 12 or 13 pitchers, with at starting spots of 5 SP/7 RP
grab loup/d.carpenter/fujikawa (now showing up in 7th on mlbdepthcharts.com, up from being behind tolleson). this has gotta be loup right now right?
@A Wesley Snipes Life: yet i plain don’t believe scheppers stays in high leverage for long. even with that though loup might be worth more than TEX’s 8th inning man.
@A Wesley Snipes Life: Yea it’s Loup for me, though Carpeneter and Fujikawa have looked really good and have been getting great st press. Scheppers shouldn’t be anywhere near a leverage situation
@Smokey: i know, yet he’s still being projected as 8th inning. gross. Are Loup or Fien the first drop for Carpenter or Fuji if either Fuji gets 8th inning or Carp is kicking major ass (even though he’s only 7th inning)? Fien do to low K rate maybe (but his job seems safe, with only Boyer moving up over there, and Gulf of Tonkin getting minor’d)
@A Wesley Snipes Life: Yea, Loup is the other guys have better K potential
Miguel Castro from the Blue Jays. Great for holds this year and could give you WDavis / Betances type numbers.
@joeg414: missed this comment somehow, he def has gas to burn and if he can limit working from the stretch he can be a def sleeper to start the year.
Hey Smokey. I’ve got my first real draft tonight. For closers in the late rounds, do you prefer to grab a) guys who are injured, but likely to return to closing (McGee, Doolittle), b) guys who are temporarily filling in (Box, League, Clippard), OR c) brain freezes who we aren’t even sure will be closing (Qualls/Gregerson)? Thanks!
@Scandalous Bob: late round closers are all dependent of what you get in the earlier rounds. If you have 2 stout closers gamble on an injured guy. If you have one and need then grab a late round flier of fill in guys. The magic number you are looking for is 100 saves or that’s what I like to shoot for coming out of the draft
20 man dynasty H2H league with holds/relief appearances/ complete games/ shutouts/double plays/k per 9/ relief wins/ QS for pitchers and we can have either 12 or 13 pitchers, with at starting spots of 5 SP/7 RP. i was able to get cook/fien/diekman to fill up spots along with giles/k-rob/melancon/walden.
1. if/when season starts and fujikawa starts hot drop fien or diekman for him, if any? He’s much better than Fien at K/9, but of course was worst roster spot out of these 3 currently. Diekman would seem to move up in value when Papel gets moved, as i’d have top 2 PHI guys. Loup is also an option now, just got dropped.
2. who’s best for 6th starting pitcher (this is probably stream spot in season, we have infinite moves, but 35 min innings per week). i already have liriano/quintana/d.holland/hammel/greene.
options: c.anderson/ house (if he gets job he’s kept)/haren/morton?
@A Wesley Snipes Life: 1. I like Fien or Diekman(especially of Paps gets traded) more
2. Anderson and House are very intriguing names
Maybe Delabar steps up on Tor? He been pitching good in SP
@Joeg414: Loup listed higher pretty much everywhere, but i am trying to waiver him in our one attempt at preseason waivers on april 3rd in a 30 man league, along with atchison. holds in that one, clearly.
@Joeg414: he looked lost last year battling injury, hope he returns to some shell of himself but I am not holding out any hope
Has to be Qualls for now, the GAMERAS! are depending on it. ;)
I think I’m going to put Soriano into one of my NA slots soon. Just have a feeling he’s closing somewhere by June.
@SallyCips: Maybe sooner for Sori but who knows. Gotta be the Qualls
Not as high on Brett Cecil as Grey, huh? He has him right below Papelbon.
12-team H2H custom points league.
I don’t know if I should pick up another closer or see how my staff works out and then backfill with a closer after I see who works? What would you do?
RP – Chapman
RP – Carrasco
P – F-Her
P – Hughes
P – Latos
P – Shoemaker
P – Pineda
BN – Salazar
BN – Peavy
BN – Eovaldi
BN – Gausman
Here’s what’s available: Hawkins, Cecil, Boxberger.
@tone DEAF!: Not as high on Cecil for one reason, if he was so great then why a month ago was Sanchez basically being touted as the guy. Will he get saves sure but he is a bottom of the chart guy until he proves he can do it consistently. You def need another closer, unless the scoring is wonky and doesn’t favor relievers favorably. Box, Cecil, Hawk in that order
@Smokey: thanks dude! Probably cut Gausman then?
@tone DEAF!: or Peavy
Brandon league?? Huh? At least list him 30 out of 30, he will likely get 0 saves on the season.
@the swinging: the last 3 are basically all 30, until Cecil is healthy he is crap, Nathan is currently crap and the only good thing for the Dodgers is that they should have some chances to maybe make someone usable, unlikely but possible.
@Smokey: cecil is someone I’m looking to draft in the later rounds of a 12 teamer. Brandon League i wouldn’t draft in a 30 team league, prob wouldn’t add him off waivers in a 30 teamer either.
How do u deduct League as the front runner there?
@the swinging: best previous experience though not sterling by any means. Peralta in save situations is a scary proposition. It’s going to be a jumbled up mess and will likely be a commitee approach for the first month. Cecil late is great, but I think the Jays need someone more proven there and they basically are losing their most effective lefty.
Smokey, my relievers right now are Rodney, Sanchez (who sounds like has won a job in the Jay’s rotation), Marshall, Petit (also a candidate to start) and Soriano (not signed yet).
Would you suggest dropping any of those last 3 for Mujica, Parnell, Will Smith or Jepsen? I might have to take the stream RP approach this season til closer roles get shooken up.
Much appreciated!
@Maxi: How deep are your starters, would losing Sanchez/Petit hurt? You basically need Soriano to sign to make you some head way in saves otherwise your going to be fishing all year.
@Smokey: I’m pretty happy with my starters:
Zimmerman
Arrieta
Iwakuma
Shoemaker
Tillman
Kazmir
Shelby Miller
right now I’m leaning towards dropping Petit cuz I really like Sanchez and feel like Petit could suffer more statisically as a starter while eating into my SP total.
gracias!
@Maxi: thoughts?
@Maxi: Yea Petit looks like the guy to go
@Smokey: ok, for Parnell, Mujica, Jepsen or Will Smith?
@Maxi: if you want saves will smith ain’t getting them there. Jepsen 2nd or 3rd option while McGee is hurt (which ain’t supposed to be long), then 3rd or 4th. Parnell probably best bet but you’ll have to wait. Mujica for probably worst stats, and 2nd best save opps by end of year, i would think.
@Maxi: Mujica best cuff option
In a deep NL Only keeper league.. where closers go for $30 papelbon up to $40 for krimbrel $40.. And the only true closer available is Chisek.. and there are limits during the season on who you cam pick up… (Nice run on sentence)
Do I trade Hawkins at $5 for Dom Brown $10 or hold onto him.
My other closer is Reed at $18, so mot trading him would give me two, albeit crappy, closers for $23.
@Elwood Blues: League only closers rule all. I would keep Hawk, trade reed for whatever you can get value wise and then pick up Marshall or another D-Backs reliever to cover. I don’t see Reed in ARI as the closer very long, think he gets traded.
Kenley Janson not even worth mentioning? For shame, guess I brought in a sucky keeper!
@bobbo: In a month he will start being mentioned again, injuries make ur name get deleted.
Gotta move 18-20 to brain freezes, no way those guys are the teams closers at the end of the year imo!
Great post otherwise, I might say a Quall-ity post at that!
#puncity
@Lance B: I am really teetering on a 4th category for next post, think it’s needed. Those three and the top 3 donkeys would be a nice category unto themselves. The thing with Benoit/Rondon/Feliz is they are the closers for their teams hands down right now, no pressure from up-and-comers yet so it’s way early and they al have some sort of previous closing experience and their teams should be decent.
Brandon League? Everything i’m hearing is Joel Peralta will be the fill in. As a long time Ms fan let me tell you League just doesn’t have the metal toughness to close. He folds like a cheap chair in pressure situations. Dodgers already booted him once after blowing 4 chances. Just hearing his name makes me cringe..so many bad memories. Or was it the stupid haircut. Either way i hate the dude so i am biased like that.
@Regan: Neither have a great track record for save success, the haircut was awesome, played well with the glasses and tattoos. Its not a situation I would want to chase until Kenley comes back.
Smoke is there any chance that Jake Barrett gets any save chances in Arizona this season.?
@S>H: Maybe later in the year, I dont forsee the d backs in it all year and may start to see what they have. The D-Backs have some fo the deepest releif prospects as well so he may not be alone in his audition.
Smokey,
Top Holds guys for this year?
Thanks
@brett: Watson
How confident are you in Clippard over Doolittle? ESPN has it the other way.
@BigRedLatrine: to start the season it’s Clippard. Doolittle isn’t expected back til Mid May
@Smokey:
Oh thats right. Thanks Smokey. Maybe Clip can hang on even after he’s back. Heres hoping.
You have to have one of the hardest fantasy jobs, forecasting closer situations. Thank you for what you do.
12 team yahoo roto so I have innings cap. I own Jansen and McGee. I do have Rodney and Cecil, but while the other two are the shelf should I hold onto Peralta to get saves in LA or just wait til I have my two lame ducks come back and use the 4 of them to catch up on saves? I don’t K ow if using up my innings on the vulture is with it for Peralta.
Thanks for your help and time in research.
@sport: Thanks for the words. Don’t waste innings on guys who suck, you’re better than that. Be better than that! This episode of scared straight over.
@Smokey: thanks smokey! That felt like a slap across the face. You know, the good kind you see in movies that get a panicking lune back into focus.
Another question, I have asked a couple others this question but really trying to learn as I go. I have always been strictly a roto guy but recently was ‘forced’ to take over a yahoo public H2H team. I am somewhat ignorant to the H2H strategy. The team I have has 3 solid closers, but also has Wade Davis and Andrew Miller (rounds 21 and 22). Can they generate enough K’s per week to validate their roster spot? Maximum of 6 moves per week.
@sport: They will help just fine in other categories, like periphs and wins. Combine the 2 Davis and Miller and you have a #3 starter for fantasy
One to keep in 7×7 with ops, obp, Qs, holds: Seager, Lester, Ortiz, Soler, Yelich, arrieta, kuma — thanks Grey
@MB: grey?…check that post again. Seager with half a vote for Yelich
@Smokey: Grey, Sky. Razzball where literacy comes to die…
I own koji in dynasty and only had room for mujica on my bench, am i safe there?
@Alan: yea only other options there are Hembree and Tazawa, but it all depends on how deep your rosters go and how many you can roster.
What happened to Cusack flicks?
@Ralph Lifshitz: to quote Spaceballs, when will now be then….soon
@Smokey: can we faDT forward the movie?
@Ralph Lifshitz: *fast…Damn lunch time drinking
@Ralph Lifshitz: ludacris speed…..now
@Smokey: My wife does pack like a Druish Princess on vacation.
Hi SocMeY
here is the deal,, keepers have been set:
(maybe you remember my team!)
C. Perez 1B. Encarnacion 2B. Altuve 3B. Carpenter SS. Desmond OF Bautista Springer Myers Ut. Wong
SP Gray Shields A.Wood – RP KJansen Allen
so now avalaible, best players , i pick 10th, 20th, 30th so i may need to reach a bit for players i want
Pitchers SP: DeGrom Fister Hugues, Weaver, Archer Cashner, Latos, Kennedy, HBailey, Cain, Liriano Shoemaker, Quintana, Fiers Hutchinson, Smyly, Odorizzi, WPeralta, DUFFY
RP: Melancon, Bettances, Britton Cishek, Rosenthal, Storen , Uehara…Clippard, Reed, BoxB, Miller
Batters: i’d like a 3B to supply Carpenter in case
3B: D.Murphy, Y.Tomas, Bogaerts, P.Alvarez… i may option Gallo or Sano later in the draft
OF: Heyward, A.Gordon, Ozuna, Calhoun, Werth, L.Martin, AJ.Pollock, J.Pederson, K.Davis , O.Arcia, Souza
2B: Murphy, Zobrist, Hendrick, J.Baez
1B: M.Adams, LAroche, Carter,Moss, Duda Pearce
C: Gattis, Y.Gomes, MCCann, Rosario Vogt
SS: Zobrist Bogaerts Baez ,,,,,
as i need to set up my pitching staff
i would target Archer 1st if still avb, then who would you go?
Cashner has been hot,
Weaver?
i also like Britton as 3rd RP
and Duffy (way) later on
LMartin and Bogaerts could be a good complement to my bats
thanks a lot
Nick
@Nick: yea, strangely I remember. I would let the draft dictate your picks, but keep me updated now I am gainfully interested.
@Smokey:
SURE Smockey ;)
next wednesday night
sorry couldn’t enter your RCL or Magoo’s
were too late for me …. in France ;)
Nick the French Stick
@Smokey:
Results of the draft tonight:
picks #
150 Archer, i’d taken DeGrom , but gone just before
160 Shoemaker
170 Salazar
180 Ozuna OF nice value
190 Y. Tomas 3B
200 K. Davis OF power
210 J.Baez SS
220 B.Cecil all good RP gone last 2 rounds!
230 Buxton NA spot
240 Shaw RP for holds along with Cody Allen in Cle
250 Chase Anderson SP
260 Miguel Sano bench prospect (can be drop for a Pitcher)
i may need more pitching, i’d take Evan Marshall when KJansen ‘ll be on DL
do i need more speed , i would have taken Leonys Martin, but took OF with power instead… Pompey avb
many good avb batters on FA, but not so SP:
?N. Eovaldi looks good in spring!
RP for holds ? nice in SEA? Farquar? Wilhemsen Furbush?
i landed my 3 SP i wanted in Archer Salazar Shoem,
so it’s a nice 6 SP combo + 3closers + 2relief with Marshall
Pretty S
@Nick: Yea you done good kid.
@Smokey:
Thanks a lot Buddy
just dropped yesterday Chase Anderson for Eovaldi under Grey’s consideration ;)
can’t wait for KJ to be DL’d on Y!
Thoughts on Cingrani as sleeper setup in CIN?
@Goose: How much can they really rely on Jumbo Diaz and a bunch of guys we have seen already and be blah, Lecure, Hoover. Cingrani needs to master his 2 pitches throw hard and for strikes and I think he can be something there ahead of what they have. I was hoping he would make rotation, so it may be a great landing spot for him as long as he transitions to a reliever ok.
@Goose: you read my 2014 mind
So, in my 12 team roto league where we keep 8 I just received a keeper trade offer from a fellow manager. My current keepers look like this:
Ian Desmond, Rizzo, Adam Jones, Bryce Harper, CarGo of Colorado, Frazier, Machado, & Scherzer
I’ve been offered Matt Harvey for Machado straight up. Machado costs me a 10th rounder while Harvey’s a 6th rounder if that factors in at all. I initially said no but he’s leaving it on the table if I’m interested. Based on what Grey said re Harvey’s inning limits it didn’t sound like a good deal but I know JB likes Harvey a lot. What say you, Smokey?
@Clint: Yea I would pass, and I love Harvey innings limit or not. Being from the NY metro area he is the shining star for baseball here locally.
Seems generous to Neftali Feliz.
@noah: Where is the real push from other relievers, there isn’t one. 13 saves in second half of last year after return from injury with a K rate north of 20%. The rest of the Rangers bullpen has a combined 8 career saves, half by Joe Beimel. Pretty safe in my book
@Smokey: Scheppers maybe but the organization wants Feliz to succeed there.
@mauledbypandas: Scheppers is that weird go between of reliever and starter. It’s like that conundrum of do I steal it or is someone looking.
@Smokey: Yeah it’s all about Feliz until Keone Kela is ready. But Smoke you know that you put me onto Kela in the first place. Straight Gas Homie!
Keep both eyes on Chris Hatcher from the Dodgers.
@Joeg414: dude, keep it down over there
@J-FOH:
His last the games, including today: 3.1 , 6h , 6r, 2bb, 3k. Not good.
@Joeg414: Oh I am watching and the dodger pen arms are falling by the way side. Great of them to invest in everything but usable BP arms.
Any chance Jepsen closes for TB until McGee is back?
@zmonny: It’s the Boxberger show right now, Jepsen may get a chance on the overworked days. Good to great third fiddle to own in deeper leagues
I know its not a measurable thing but the mental make-up plays such a huge role in determining the closer for any squad and is something we can’t study by looking at numbers. Or at least numbers over a season. I would love to see how certain players perform, not in the ninth, but in one run ballgames and the heart of the order coming up. Or to better put it, when faces a difficult trio how does one handle the pressure. To go a step further, how one handles high pressure on the road vs home or within the division or not. Just some thoughts about why speculating on who is next in line can be a difficult task when its not clear cut.
@J-FOH: I mean there is a stat that exists and I use it a ton. It’s called the leverage index, it’s a published stat on Baseball reference. It may not breakdown every iota that you’re looking for but it takes into account the changes in win probability based on batter and game situation
AJ Hinch managing in HOU now, Smoke.
@GhostTownSteve: Doh, ya him too. But you get the gist in general speak