So, how’s everyone holding up without fantasy baseball every day? I don’t know what to do with myself! This week I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Chris Tillman for 2016. Then I laughed hysterically for a good twenty minutes until someone asked me to leave. We’ve gone over the final 2015 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters. There’s no more of these godforsaken recap posts left. You’re welcome. I, my over-the-internet friend, will be talking about 2016 rookies next. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
21. Michael Wacha – Other than wins, I pretty much nailed Wacha, which makes my preseason rank for him even more perplexing. *looks at his peripherals* Wow, he didn’t do anything like I thought he would to end up nearly identical to my preseason ratio projections. It’s like when you leave your house at the same time as someone else, then you both arrive at the same destination, but your friend took a helicopter and stopped for caviar-covered poutine while you took your hooptie. Wacha’s K-rate fell, his FIP went up to 3.87 and his walk rate went up. Essentially, he was lucky to win that many games and have that low of an ERA. Preseason Rank #69, 2015 Projections: 9-8/3.31/1.22/134, Final Numbers: 17-7/3.38/1.21/153
22. Marco Estrada – An early-30’s, gopher ball-prone pitcher moves to Rogers Centre and the AL East and has the best season of his career. If you want, you can Skype me to watch as I scratch my head and shrug. I have no idea, but I have a Ponch I won’t own Estrada next year. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-8/3.13/1.04/131
23. Carlos Martinez – I ranked him 74th in the preseason, but some of these preseason rankings are misleading. I wanted C-Mart on all of my teams and said as much in the preseason, then ranked him a little before he was going and drafted him in multiple leagues. Of course, I said to drop him in April when he was pitching awful, but that’s quibbling, you quibbler! Preseason Rank #74, 2015 Projections: 8-6/3.09/1.27/124, Final Numbers: 14-7/3.01/1.29/184
24. Francisco Liriano – This is what it feels like owning Liriano every year, “He just threw a shutout and K’d 12 guys? Jesus Alou, how did I draft this guy so cheaply? *one start later* Five earned runs in three innings? I wonder if he can feel it if I drop him really fast to waivers. *after next start* A 15-K complete game shutout? Oh c’mon!” And that’s how it goes for the better part of six months. Preseason Rank #33, 2015 Projections: 12-7/3.52/1.26/161, Final Numbers: 12-7/3.38/1.21/205
25. Collin McHugh – Don’t you want to spell his first name Collin’ like ballin’ or fallin’? Okay, maybe it’s just me. Wanna know how end-of-the-season rankings lie? They take into account wins. McHugh was okay, but 19 wins is going a long way to buoying him here. Preseason Rank #35, 2015 Projections: 10-9/3.35/1.19/184, Final Numbers: 19-7/3.89/1.28/171
26. Masahiro Tanaka – Kinda in the same boat as Wacha, and in that boat there’s a Bengal tiger. Hey, it’s a Life of Pi sequel! I was right on with Tanaka’s ERA in the preseason, but he needed a ton of luck to get there and that’s showing in his WHIP. A 3.51 ERA and 0.99 WHIP just don’t make sense together, his BABIP is why, so I guess that’s BABIP = Y. And now I’m confused. Preseason Rank #25, 2015 Projections: 10-4/3.49/1.15/150, Final Numbers: 12-7/3.51/0.99/139
27. Garrett Richards – Yet another guy that didn’t really perform as I expected even if his stats don’t necessarily say I was way off. I was, because I thought he’d only be good for 170 IP, and he pitched 207 1/3 IP, which means his K-rate was much lower than I expected (it was, down to 7.6). Preseason Rank #44, 2015 Projections: 10-6/3.39/1.21/155, Final Numbers: 15-12/3.65/1.24/176
28. Johnny Cueto – What’s the difference between Cueto and all the other guys up until now in this list? He can kick an apple off the top of your head? Good guess, but no. He’s the first guy here that performed much worse than I expected. That’s interesting because it means there was quite a few bargains to be had for your pitching slots. That is slightly less interesting than it could be because everyone knows that there’s pitching to be had late. Preseason Rank #12, 2015 Projections: 15-8/2.89/1.08/204, Final Numbers: 11-13/3.44/1.13/176
29. Noah Syndergaard – I was mostly off with Syndergaard because I thought he’d only get 100 major league innings and he instead recorded 150. Well, not including the ton of innings the Mets starters are still throwing. Can we wrap up this series before it ruins the Mets starters into 2017? Preseason Rank #101, 2015 Projections: 6-4/3.61/1.29/89, Final Numbers: 9-7/3.24/1.05/166
30. Stephen Strasburg – Here’s what I said after his final start of the year, “From June 1st on, he was hit by random injury after random injury, but when he was on the mound, his ERA was 1.76. One more time with some stank, in 82 innings from June 1st on, his ERA was 1.76.” And that’s me quoting me! Yes, he was Stressbird early on and through the injuries, but, damn, if his end-of-the-season numbers aren’t telling a different story than how good he was for the final three months. Preseason Rank #5, 2015 Projections: 17-6/2.58/1.03/247, Final Numbers: 11-7/3.46/1.11/155
31. Jordan Zimmermann – Random Off The Cuff Prediction Alert! The Nationals big arms all come through next year like the Mets arms did this year. Of course, Zimmermann is a free agent so this doesn’t necessarily pertain to him. Preseason Rank #11, 2015 Projections: 17-7/2.89/1.06/186, Final Numbers: 13-10/3.66/1.20/164
32. Tyson Ross – Ross was also the only pitcher to escape from Rudy’s pitchers to avoid, and since Ross had an April to forget (4.55 ERA) that might’ve had you prematurely ejaculating him. I’m using an older definition of ejaculating. Preseason Rank #14, 2015 Projections: 14-9/3.11/1.15/204, Final Numbers: 10-12/3.26/1.31/212
33. Jaime Garcia – I owned Garcia in one league so I know this is what it was like owning him, “He has a one-something ERA so I should start him, but…Wait, let me check to make sure it’s his ERA that is one-something and not his WHIP. Nope, says here his ERA is one-something. Let me check his Baseball Reference player page, just in case, because I really don’t believe it’s August and his ERA is one-something.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 10-6/2.43/1.05/97
34. James Shields – This is what you should be inferring right about now: there were 32 top starters, then guys that had good stretches. Preseason Rank #42, 2015 Projections: 13-10/3.42/1.18/181, Final Numbers: 13-7/3.91/1.33/216
35. Jason Hammel – Basically, if you threw 170+ IP and had an ERA under 4 and a K-rate over 7.5, you made the top 40 starters. What does that mean for next year, because all of this is for the past year, but really it’s to inform us for next year. It means after your 2nd starter drafted, you could get a third starter from anywhere in the next 150 starters. Preseason Rank #62, 2015 Projections: 9-11/3.67/1.22/151, Final Numbers: 10-7/3.74/1.16/172
36. Wei-Yin Chen – To continue my Hammel train of thought, Chen only had a 7.2 K/9, but he had 190+ IP so that gets him in the top 40. That’s me weighing in on Wei-Yin. Preseason Rank #64, 2015 Projections: 12-10/3.69/1.26/142, Final Numbers: 11-8/3.34/1.22/153
37. Lance Lynn – I thought Lynn had a better season than this, so I went back to look at his game log, and he had an ERA of 2.80 heading into September and really only had three terrible starts all year. So, the cold hard math that is ranking him 37th here is even underrating him. Guess that’s why it’s not cold, easy math, or even warm, hard math. Preseason Rank #43, 2015 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.28/186, Final Numbers: 12-11/3.03/1.37/167
38. Dan Haren – I guess Chen may not have been owned all year in all leagues, but we are officially in a part of the program where these guys were streamed in many leagues. To give you a takeaway, you can stream a top 40 starter next year. Sorry if that takeaway isn’t as good as the chicken tikka masala you got last week. Preseason Rank #86, 2015 Projections: 11-12/3.98/1.24/135, Final Numbers: 11-9/3.60/1.13/132
39. Jake Odorizzi – Let’s have fun with splits! His home ERA was 2.79 and his pre-All Star break ERA was 2.30. In road games after the break, he was egregious. Those splits were obviously less fun that sploshing. Preseason Rank #52, 2015 Projections: 10-14/3.83/1.30/181, Final Numbers: 9-9/3.35/1.15/150
40. Edinson Volquez – “Hello, this is Ray Searage calling for Edinson. I’m calling because he owes me a nickel for every time he pitches well. I want my $2.00! No, I’m not doing a Better Off Dead impression. He really owes me that much! Yes, I’ll hold.” Preseason Rank #124, 2015 Projections: 10-12/4.24/1.40/136, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.55/1.31/155
