In lieu of rankings, I found a crazy early mock draft on X from editor-in-chief from PitcherList, Rick Graham. If you’re interested in the whole thing, I’ll post the screenshot below. As the corner infield guy, though, I was interested in how these guys are valued outside of my own awesome bubble.
It’s a solid bubble, I think.
For this, the round will be posted first and the corner guys that are in each one, followed by a note on value added or lost.
Round 1: Junior Caminero, Jose Ramirez
Totally disagree with picking Ramirez 11th, but someone will bank on track record here. Junior Caminero takes the mantle as the top rated corner infield guy. I’d take him as high as fifth. No, no steals, so you’ll have to address that later. But where else at third base can you get 40-100-100 potential? He was a definite profit from where you drafted him in the preseason. That’s the dream, right? Get a first round value out of the second or third, and you’re in good shape. So with that in mind, looking at the 2-3 rounds……..
Round 2: It’s Just Nick Kurtz
He’s a first round pick in a twelve team league, full stop. There’s no reason he should be going below Ramirez, for example. This is the prototypical first baseman basher who gets everything but steals. The walks keep his production safe (33% K rate isn’t ideal) and the power is legitimate. Do NOT take a pitcher over him. Fine, here’s my top ten next year:
I can make the case for Kurtz over anyone below Yordan. I won’t, I don’t wanna fight the entire internet, but that’s how strongly I feel about the rising superstar.
Round 3: Matt Olson, Miguel Vargas, Jazz Chisholm, Sal Stewart
Here’s where astute fantasy managers who didn’t cut Sal Stewart at the first sign of struggle could make a lot of profit. Vargas and Stewart were available after pick 200. Of course, this kind of season is hard to predict, but the opportunity was there to get them, and congrats if you did. That’s even better than a third round popping off into the first; this is a flyer who made it big for you.
Jazz Chisholm is not a third round player. He doesn’t have the walks or power to compensate for over 30% strikeout rate, and at age 28 he’s not terribly likely to improve either one. I get it, he’s tempting with the power and steals. You do you. Rather just get him in the 6th or so than in the third where he has little chance to exceed that draft slot.
Round 4: Kevin McGonigle, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakami
Oh, this is the juicy round! All of these guys are good picks here. They all have potential to be in the top twenty next season. Vlad, if he can fix his troublesome back, should return to at worst his 2025 level. That’s a great value play in round four. McGonigle is a great pick here as well; he’s a legit fantasy stud and will probably rise in drafts as we get into March. I’d take Alonso or Murakami if you didn’t achieve your power goals in the first couple of rounds.
Round 5: Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman
Two long-time favorite second round targets are falling down due to no fault of their own. It’s age. You probably drafted them in rounds 2-3, and the value didn’t get returned there. Ah, the risks of drafting players in their mid-30s are multitude. Both of them should be fine here in the fifth round as stability guys. In fact, if you mess up and take a pitcher early, these guys are good stat fillers since you missed out on better bats earlier.
Round 7: Jac Caglianone, Alec Burleson
Nope, didn’t skip round six. There were none!
Burleson is better than anyone thinks. He’s in the worst park for home run hitters in baseball. There was a funny NSFW clip where he denigrated his stadium of employment after another warning track flyout. He’s at 21 home runs for now. In Oakland, the expected number is 33. Nearly all other parks would have his total in the 25-30 range. He’s under contract for two more years, so that’s not expected, but he’s a very good player in a park that doesn’t let him fully show it. Full support the pick here, or even a round or two earlier given the steep falloff that’s about to come.
Round 8: Tyler Soderstrom, Luis Garcia, Manny Machado
Manny Machado was the safe guy, and if you drafted him in round 2-3 you’re not happy. He had that one hot stretch but returned to a pumpkin soon after. You probably know what I’m about to say: I’m out on him now, forever, given his age. Even if it’s injury related, he’s old enough and does have two reconstructed knees to go for a safer option, health and age, and, most importantly, performance-wise.
Round 9: Kazuma Okamoto
Another good late flier that paid off.
Round 10: Rafael Devers, Wilson Contreras
Round 11: Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, Yandy Diaz
Austin Riley got me, gotta admit, with some preseason hype. The track record was fine, looked good, and yes, took him Round 6. That’s a five round loss in value. Not crippling, that team is in first, but it took a ton of waiver work to get past a bust. Eleven is too high; he’ll drop when drafts come around. Bregman all depends on his finish. He’s got nine HR and hitting .333 for the last month, and it all seems sustainable. Probably Bregman will go in the middle rounds as always.
Round 12: Josh Naylor
I told you guys before the season to fade Naylor. Don’t like Seattle bats and don’t think that slow guys are going to keep up steals. Well darn, he has 25 steals. But ten home runs? That’s Seattle, which isn’t quite as bat as St. Louis but fairly close. Some people are disappointed, but if expectations are low like mine were, then you can’t ever be that. Listen next time, kay?
Round 13: Royce Lewis
Drafted after pick 150: Jon Aranda, Caleb Durbin
Don’t draft Royce Lewis. The Aranda or Durbin options are far superior.
Hope you found the current values measured by draft position interesting. I did! That’s the best part of being a writer. I get to do what I want.
Here’s the link if you want the full thing.
https://x.com/iamrickgraham/status/2091605779878940763?s=46
Where do you find a guy who’s a notorious slow starter but becomes all world in the 2nd half, and yet don’t do squat in the 2nd half? Is Julio just a healthier version of LuBob?