It’s only April 22, but it’s April 22, ya know? We have a decent amount of data here.
Sometimes the theme just pops in my head, and sometimes I just look at the Player Rater and see what stands out. This is one of those articles, the hope being that you find it interesting as well.
Rafael Devers
There’s a lot to dislike here. He hit .236 with an .807 OPS after his trade to San Francisco last season, making his current .225 seem like a trend, not an aberration. Factor in the notoriously poor hitting conditions in his home park, and the power has to be a concern (although to be fair, both of his home runs this year have been at home.) The trade from Boston to Oracle Park has been to his detriment.
His issue is a lack of hard contact. Devers has long been a solid exit velocity bet, and this year has been a poor start in that department. He hasn’t been unlucky, he’s just making poor contact. The whiff rate has improved, but he could be trying to make more contact at the expense of power numbers. Time will tell if he can snap out of it.
Of course, Devers started poorly last season and rebounded. This feels different, though. He’s long had concerns about physical conditioning and is now around 30. The contact quality is worse, and the plate approach was never his calling card. I would look to trade Devers and try to recoup some value from someone who buys into a rebound.
Ryan O’Hearn
No, this isn’t going to be all strugglers. O’Hearn has long been a solid bat on the strong side of platoons. Last year, though, he held his own against LHP, actually having a higher OPS against them than righties. So far, he’s really enjoyed his new digs in Pittsburgh. While he hasn’t raked against lefties, he has remained productive in a small sample size (.286 in 21 AB) against them. Overall, he’s hitting .329 with four home runs, so you can imagine the stats against righties are quite solid. And here they are! .347/.450/.592 for a 1.042 OPS.
There’s nothing under the hood to worry about either. His BABIP is high, .358, but even if that comes down a bit, the batting average will still play. Walk and strikeout rates are both in the top quarter of the league, and the contact quality is in the 65th percentile. Not elite, there, but it’ll work. O’Hearn was a good late round target, and he’s turned into a great asset. I’m a couple weeks from new ranks, and at this point, O’Hearn clears Devers going forward.
Vinnie Pasquantino
Back to the strugglers. There is nothing to encourage you about Vinnie P this season. But last year, he went .177/.242/.327 in the first month, then heated up with the weather. April showers begat May flowers as he slashed .330/.375/.464 in that month. So don’t look at StatCast for encouragement. It’s not a pretty sight. If you’re looking for hope, and you should be because he’s a good player, look at last season’s splits. Need more? Yes? Well, in his rookie year in April, he also slashed .208/.311/.386 and heated up. Ladies and germs, we have ourselves a slow starter. He’ll be fine.
Max Muncy
Ever since Muncy debuted in 2015, that old Beastie Boys song comes in my head. See if you can name it: “Max Muncy. That funky Muncy!” Well, the Funky Muncy is still going strong at age 35. By strong, I mean some power and a good OBP. But I’m gonna recommend a sell here. Muncy has been known for years for a strong walk rate. This year, though, it’s down to 10%, 56th percentile, from 16, which was tops in the league. Muncy also has a ten percent spike in strikeouts. With age, players sometimes go to more guessing pitches than reacting, leading to more swings. He’s not a safe bet anymore for season-long production, and don’t forget the extensive injury history.
Josh Jung
Jung clocks in as the 20th rated third baseman in the Rater, largely on the shoulders of this hot streak:
20-for-59, 9 extra base hits, .385/.441/.635, 203 WRC+, only 12% K rate. He made some meaningful changes in the second half and seems like they’ve clicked for now. You have to ride this one to see if it’s real. Any time a guy pops like this, you have to buy into the hope he gives in such a weak position.
Here’s a few super fun bonus nuggets. The first one is guys I’m not stressing about. The second is guys to cut ties with. It’s okay, I hereby give you permission online to do it. I can go into details in the comments if you like on why, but I’m at almost 900 words already!
Be Patient With:
Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Alec Burleson, Tyler Soderstrom
Move On From:
Royce Lewis, Nolan Arenado, Kazuma Okamoto, Nolan Schanuel
Purgatory:
They’re not cuttable, but there’s a special place for fantasy managers who are suffering through these guys’ worst stretch of their careers. God bless you all for putting up with their shenanigans. I have no advice but to hold strong and persevere. It’s harder on them than it is on you.
