Hello friends, and welcome to another week of preseason fantasy baseball talk! As I continue to meander through a couple of NFBC slow drafts, there are a few trends emerging that, while not necessarily surprising, are worth noting and thinking about as more and more folks head into draft season. This week, which is my second preseason week back here with you fine folks at Razzball, I thought we’d concentrate on first base, hence my potentially confusing lead. I went into this season thinking that first base is a position with a particularly steep drop-off after the first tier or two, but that’s not necessarily what I’m experiencing in my actual 2026 draft rooms. No, you definitely don’t want to get to the end of your queue of first basemen without having rostered a player you like, but for me, that list is a little longer than I originally thought it would be. I also went back and read Grey’s Top 1st Basemen for 2026 post after I wrote this, and found we (not surprisingly) have a handful of similar thoughts about some specific players at the position.
What I want to do as I get deeper into my draft season is to take a wider look at just how top-heavy first base appears, outside of the bubble of my specific drafts and based on raw data using the last month’s worth of NFBC ADP. This info may not tell us exactly which players make the most sense for our specific rosters and leagues, but it’ll give us an overview of this season’s perceived 1B tiers, and just how much we may have to pay should we want to nab one of the top guys. Then, we’ll take a look at who might stand out as early potential values should we miss out on one of those top guys, either on purpose or just because our draft or auction didn’t go quite as we planned. I’m already thinking my first base plan will vary quite a bit this year from league to league, so in my mind, the clearer overview we have of the landscape as a whole, the better.
(Note: I’m not including either Ben Rice or Sal Perez on this list, but I suppose it should be noted that they both have 1B eligibility in addition to catcher. For those Rice fans out there, you may also want to note that there’s some noticeable helium on him… if you do incorporate him into the 1B rankings, he sits at #4 in terms of NFBC ADP over the last month. If the numbers don’t lie and it wasn’t a mis-click, he has been drafted as high as 13th overall in one league. I mean, I like the player a lot, but that was a mis-click, right?)
The top three (ADP in parenthesis): Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (18), Nick Kurtz (also 18, once you round off), Pete Alonso (25). Love all these guys, but probably won’t roster any of them in any leagues. This is due simply to my affinity for acquiring both power and speed at this price, which will lead me to a position other than 1B this early in a draft, or for as much as they’ll cost at auction. I did make an exception last year and have one pretty successful team with Vlad on it, and I have no problem with folks building a roster around one of these guys if that’s their thing.
The next five. I’m considering this a tier, if you will: Bryce Harper (47), Matt Olson (49), Rafael Devers (55), Josh Naylor (62), Freddie Freeman (65). There are no true youngsters in this group, but there is an almost limitless amount of track record and talent. This is the group I’ve been concentrating on in my drafts so far, and I’ve already rostered Harper, Naylor, and Freeman.
I took Harper with the first pick of the fourth round in a 15-team draft, and it seemed like a huge bargain at the time (Devers, Freeman, and Olson followed him off the board later in the same round, in that order). I think I was excited by the notion of Bryce on a 2026 revenge tour after getting trashed by the Phillies brass. Now I’m already thinking that’ll be my only share this year as I take a better look at how many other first basemen I don’t mind in this and the next tier.
All five of these guys could return pretty great value at this spot, though I think there’s a wide range of outcomes here, especially for the aging guys like Freddie and Bryce, as well, for that matter. So hard to predict when Father Time will catch up to even the most skilled hitters. (And not gonna lie, I was mildly shocked to see that Olson is only 31 — I think I’d have guessed 35; maybe I’m underestimating him.) As weird as last year was for Devers, I think he could end up being a value where he’s being drafted and kind of like him in the middle of this particular 1B blob. Freeman’s price is a little lower than I expected it’d be this year, which maybe shouldn’t be surprising given that it’s his already alluded to age 36 season. At this spot, I’m in for one more season, given all there is to like about both his skills and his lineup.
Naylor is also hard to predict, but maybe the most intriguing name here in some ways. Will he go 20/30 again? (And did that really happen last year? Still doesn’t look right on his player page.) Or will he go 30/5? 15/10? 30/30? All I know is I like the hitter a lot, and I think the counting stats are going to be there one way or another. It does make things tricky when constructing the rest of your roster, trying to figure out if the steals will even come close to repeating, though. I’d like to know what the folks in Vegas would set the over/under on for Josh Naylor + Juan Soto total stolen bases in 2026. 7? 77?
The next three, aka the tier I think I should be paying more attention to: Vinnie Pasquantino (82), Tyler Soderstrom (87), Michael Busch (106). I think you could argue that Vinnie P. actually belongs at the end of the last tier; it’s varied from draft to draft for me whether he gets grabbed at the end of that group, or if there’s a one or two round pause in first basemen getting taken before he gets drafted to start a new mini run. He’s 28 but already seems a little old and boring to me, which is maybe why I haven’t drafted him. But if boring means 30 plus homers with a decent batting average, what’s not to love at this spot?
I did grab Soderstrom in my first draft of the year, happy to roster him for another season in Sacramento, while he’s still 1B eligible in addition to qualifying at outfield. I never thought I’d get to this point in the preseason, wishing I’d already stocked up on more A’s hitters, and making a concerted effort to bump several of them up my rankings a bit, and yet here we are. Meanwhile, Busch was one of my roster mainstays last year, and I thought that would happen again, but it hasn’t yet. I think I started to fall into the trap of not wanting to pay significantly more than I did for him last year, even though I’m now realizing that he is probably still likely to be a great value at his new 2026 price. I’m already feeling some major FOMO with him, and it’s not even February yet, so I suspect I’ll have at least a share by the time the season opens.
There are plenty of options beyond these names later on in a draft, some of whom have legit upside and may well outperform many of the names on this list. We’ll talk about some of those players later in the preseason, but this is where I’m drawing the line for now for a starting first baseman in a 15-team mixed league. Because I’ve already drafted a few draft and hold format teams, I’ve been a little more concerned with a solid floor than a high ceiling, so different league formats will change things quite a lot. In a draft and hold, if I grab a Spencer Torkelson or a Sal Stewart as a ride or die and they bust, I don’t really have anywhere to turn. I’d rather have my first base spot locked up with a name I trust a little more (for whatever that’s worth, since trust can be a cruel investment in the world of fantasy baseball), and then hopefully still have room to grab some of those other sleeper-type first basemen as a corner guy or depth. (Note: just grabbed Manzardo around pick 250 in a draft for CI/U/depth where I needed some power… another example of a guy I’m happy to welcome to my squad that late, but am glad is not my only 1B option).
I’ve already had one league where I was waiting on one of Pasquantino/Soderstrom/Busch and whiffed, which can be a particularly big danger if you are drafting near one of the ends of a 15-teamer. It’s also one of the reasons I just picked a guy like Freeman a little earlier than I might have wanted to in a couple of leagues, just to know that I wouldn’t have to worry about first base options evaporating too quickly mid-draft. Anyhow, I had to pick a guy from what I consider the next tier: Yandy Diaz, Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras, Jonathan Aranda, Christian Walker, or Torkelson. I went with Burleson, who I really like as a high-ish floor guy this year, especially with his 1B/OF dual eligibility, but I really wish he was the second first baseman I’d put on my squad, not the first.
Okay, that’s our very early look at the higher end of the 2026 first base landscape. Thanks for reading, and happy draft prep to all!
Thoughts on O’Neil Cruz this year…worth targeting!