What’s up everybody in Somewheresville, USA and 3 people in the UK? Most of you are recovering from the three-day federal holiday known as “Truly Time” and stepping back into the virtual or real office this morning. Hopefully, I can bring a little smile to your face and cash to your pocket.
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Pitchers:
Andrew Heaney ($6700): Followers of my pitcher rankings know that I’m (un)reasonably high on Andrew Heaney. Same as Dylan Bundy. These guys have been pitching a ton of strikes and missing bats…and also sometimes allowing a bunch of homers. But the Angels are in a bit of disarray after the Callaway/Pujols/Trout stuff, so it’s time for the regression faeries to visit Heaney and allow him the baseball card stats that his SABRmetric stats are predicting. YOLO!
Eric Lauer ($7800): 22:3 K:BB ratio on the season in mixed usage. In other words, CONTROL. Craig Counsell really wants that 5th starter to throw a bunch of innings, so for the low price of $7800, you’ve got a good pitcher who could be much more expensive come next week.
Sonny Gray ($7700): Swinging strike rate is down over his last three games but he’s still in the 8.5 K/9 range with acceptable peripheral stats. He’s naturally a boom/bust pitcher because of his sore back, which is something that we can’t really predict unless he’s on the IL. At $7700, he’s a great cheap play with high upside.
German Marquez ($8200): Check out what I wrote in my Top 100 Starting Pitchers for this week
- A lot of you — I mean us — I mean the royal “We” — gave up on Marquez when he kind of lost his control early in the year and then got blown up for 8 runs in one inning. After that catastrophe, he’s thrown 25 IP with a 10+ K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and a 2.16 ERA to go with a 3.64 FIP and 3.82 SIERA. So, yeah, he’s kind of back. What if we do one of those Player A / Player B comparisons over the last month?
Name IP K/9 BB/9 ERA SIERA Player A 23.2 12.55 4.56 3.42 3.57 Player B 25 10.08 3.60 2.16 3.82 Typical hem-haw situation, right? Player A is good at some things, Player B is good at others, but overall, just about the same, right? Except Player A is Shane Bieber and Player B is German Marquez. One of those guys was drafted in the first round and the other is probably on the waiver wire right now. Oh! Wait for it…one of those players is marquee, and the other is Marquez. Hah!
Hitters:
Andrelton Simmons ($2100), Rob Refsnyder ($2200), Willians Astudillo ($3000), Kyle Garlick ($3000): Hello cheap stacks! I think you could find these guys at White Castle if you tried real hard. As a Twins fan, I’m completely embarrassed that this is the team we’re throwing out into the world and expecting to win games. Now starring, Kyle Garlick! But Refsnyder legit changed his swing and is absolutely crushing right now, Garlick has a .500 SLG over the last month, and Astudillo is hitting .282 over the last month. As always, check the Twins’ wonky lineup decisions before lock, but it shouldn’t be hard to pivot in Josh Donaldson/Nelson Cruz to support whatever players in this group don’t appear.
Hunter Dozier ($2600), Andrew Benintendi ($3100), Kelvin Gutierrez ($2500), Nicky Lopez ($2300): Royals vs Pirates. Bleh. And MLB wonders why I won’t support MLB. TV. Can’t watch my own crappy teams so I have to watch the Royals and Pirates play batting practice. Wil Crowe takes the mound for the first couple innings in the game until he gets chased in the 4th and then the Royals cruise to victory. Dozier has a .813 OPS over the last week and 4 dongs over the last month. Benintendi has an .828 OPS over the last month and is swinging at everything (25%K rate to 4% BB rate over his last 25 PA).
Charlie Culberson ($2900), Jose Trevino ($2900), Willie Calhoun ($3600), Nate Lowe ($3500): OK, I told you to start Marquez against the Rangers above. BUT! He’s playing sky high, which is — of course — his kryptonite. Actually he’s been doing pretty OK in the smokey city high up in the sky recently, just like power pitcher Jon Gray. ENYWHEY. If you’re not trusting Marquez, then stack against him…cuz Coors.
Kevin Kiermaier ($2100), Brett Phillips ($2200), Yandy Diaz ($3300), Taylor Walls ($2600): I saw a well-known tout tell people to start Domingo German today, but I think that Tout fails to read the tea leaves. German (not Marquez) has allowed nearly 8 hits per 9 on the season and has an FIP nearly 1.50 points over his ERA. His last start was marked by a ridiculous .077 BABIP and he’s had a .230 BABIP over the past month. So, here’s your low-owned stack to take advantage of what the Touts are telling their crowd. Hey — maybe I’m a Tout after all!
Obvious Hitting Pivots: Nelson Cruz ($3500), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4500), Josh Donaldson ($2800), Cody Bellinger ($3400), Max Muncy ($3900)
Obligatory Catcher Recommendation: Mitch Garver ($3100)
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
Might be some rain going through Houston which will mean a closed dome. Possible rain in Colorado but it doesn’t look too serious.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
White Sox are +135 to Cleveland at the time of writing. Take a look at the Marquez blurb above and see how Shane Bieber has been pitching as of this month. I know it’s risky as heck to bet against the elite pitchers, but I think we’re seeing Vegas price this game on his typical stats instead of his recent stats. There’s an inefficiency there that a lot of people won’t be looking at, so it’s worth a shot. Good luck!
