Welcome to the Tuesday edition of FanDuel DFS here on Razzball. It’s May the 4th! Congrats to those who’ve been cashing in on their DFS lineups so far, and for those of you who’ve yet to find that heater, let’s stay positive and turn it around TODAY! It’s the Jacob deGrom slate and I don’t care what his price is, he’s the best pitcher in baseball and is always atop the player pool when it’s his turn. Hopefully, the force will be with the Mets’ bats and they’ll put up some runs to get JdG a W.
There’s all kinds of spots to go tonight on this 11 game slate, but the key is going to be hitting on those salary-saving bats, OR, finding that lower-priced arm that goes off if you’re into that type of thing. I’m not an advocate of fading deGrom, but there are some juicy high-priced bats that would be fun builds if you can find the right guy to get you those 40-50 points out of the P slot. The top 3 SP on my board tonight are all in solid spots. We have deGrom ($12,500) @ Cardinals, Aaron Nola ($9,200) vs Brewers, and Nick Pivetta ($8,300) vs Tigers. I’ll say it now, if I’m not going with deGrom, there are only 3 other spots I feel okay/good about. And honestly, I’m only going there if the weather is still super shaky leading up to game time. There’s a sneaky pivot that I like, but it’ll take balls to do so. Let’s get down to business.
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Jacob deGrom, SP: ($12,500) – The best pitcher in baseball, deGrom has given up 2 earned runs through 5 starts while striking out 59 batters and walking only 4. What does he have to show for it? A 2-2 record. With a 23% swinging-strike rate, deGrom is as elite as elite can be. The only 2 downfalls here could be missing out on 6 points when the Mets fail to give him the run support, as well as the weather not looking too good tonight in St. Louis. If we think it’s going to get delayed or called entirely, pivot to one of the next two or 3 guys.
Aaron Nola, SP: ($9,200) – Yelich should be back in the lineup, which does change things, but amongst NL teams the Brewers own the 3rd highest K% and the 2nd lowest run-producing numbers vs RHP. Nola has just 1 really solid outing and it came during his last home start vs the Cardinals. He’s back at home in this one where, historically, he is a better pitcher. If you’re worried about the weather in St. Louis, this might be a really solid pivot even if that game happens. Nola is due for a solid outing.
Nick Pivetta, SP: ($8,300) – Pivetta has outperformed his peripherals as his 2.81 ERA compared to his 4.45 expected era (xERA) indicates. He has a below-average swinging strike rate as well as contact rate. However, he’s facing the Tigers. Detroit is the worst team in baseball vs righties in terms of run production and trail only the Rangers in K%. Pivetta is a solid 2-start pitcher this week in seasonal leagues and has a very solid matchup for those looking to save at SP tonight. This will be a popular pivot, especially if the deGrom game is out.
Huascar Ynoa, SP: ($8,000) – As crazy as it sounds, this might be the main guy I pivot to from deGrom. The ownership should be way down and the Nats are two different teams depending on the handedness of the pitcher they’re facing. They’re a bottom 3 run-producing team vs RHP, and a top 3 team vs LHP. Welp, today they get a righty who’s no slouch. Ynoa is basically a two-pitch pitcher but those two pitches are a 97-99 mph fastball and an 86 mph wipeout slider. He’ll mix a change in there every now and then but not too often. He generates plenty of swinging strikes and ground balls, and if he can keep his pitch count intact he might be in some big money winning lineups tonight, especially if deGrom gets postponed. I especially like this matchup if Soto remains out.
Catcher/First Base
Freddie Freeman, C/1B: ($4,000) – Freddie is crushing RHP this season with a .284 ISO and all 6 long balls. He’s also got a very nice 14 plate appearance history vs Joe Ross, with a .500 avg, 4 BB, 1 K, and 2 homers. Freeman’s surface numbers don’t show the whole story. He’s been struggling mightily vs lefties, but this matchup should be just fine for Freddie.
Carlos Santana, C/1B: ($3,900) – He’s hot and he’s been hitting lefties very well this season. He’s got a matchup with the tall (6’8”) lefty, Sam Hentges, who’s given up 3 home runs through 3 outings this season-spanning 5 ? innings. Santana has always been a streaky hitter and right now he’s as hot as ever. Take advantage.
Roberto Perez, C/1B: ($) – Before you say anything, I’m aware he is hitting .143. However, he’s cheap and is much better (still not great) vs lefties. His 3 homers have come off LHP and he’s facing a lefty in Mike Minor who’s not shy to give up the long ball. This is a salary-saving dart throw with some home run upside. He’ll garner almost no ownership and will allow you to do more with your Jacob deGrom lineups.
Second Base
Whit Merrifield, 2B (OF): ($3,900) – Whit has a .968 OPS vs lefties compared to a .613 vs righties. Just like with Santana, Whit has been great vs southpaws and should get at least a couple of turns vs the unproven rookie tonight at home vs Sam Hentges. Whit has just 1 strikeout in 32 ABs vs LHP with 4 xBH and 5 steals.
Nick Solak, 2B (OF): ($3,300) – J.A. Happ gives up a ton of contact and a ton of fly balls. I don’t understand how his ERA is where it is, but I expect that to change very soon. Texas isn’t the deadliest lineup, and pretty dreadful overall vs LHP, but Solak has been a bright spot vs southpaws and J.A. Happ is a great matchup for him tonight.
Third Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B (1B): ($4,000) – Last week was the first time I didn’t have him in the write-up this year. He hit 3 homers. He’s a guy who can double bop any day of the week and just doesn’t strike out against lefties. Vs LHP to date, Vlad is hitting .333 with a 10/1 BB/KK ratio. Irvin doesn’t walk many guys, which is great news in this case as Vladdy should get some pitches to hit.
Austin Riley, 3B: ($2,400) – Riley is a far better hitter vs same-handed pitching (Righties). To date, he owns a .366/.465/.521 slash line vs RHP. He’s been a wonderful surprise the past few weeks and a good bet to keep it going vs Joe Ross and the Nats today in DC. I like a Braves stack that includes Riley, seeing as his price has not caught up to his performance. He should also be a solid one-off since it’ll be tough to get them Bravos in there if you’re planning on deGrom.
Short Stop
Amed Rosario, SS (OF): ($2,400) – In an unlikely move, I think SS could be the place to go for salary relief tonight. The top 4-6 guys at this position are all solid plays today, so I’m not saying not to go there, but I like this matchup as Rosario is starting to show life. He’s got an .833 OPS vs LHP compared to .458 vs righties. We’re going to need to save to get the 12.5K deGrom in there, and this could be one of the places to do that.
Charlie Culberson, SS (OF): ($2,300) – Another salary saver with a great matchup on paper vs J.A. Happ. Cullberson has always hit lefties better than righties and this year is no different. The icing on the cake would be if somehow he were hitting in the top 2/3 of the lineup tonight. It’s a small sample (30 PA) but he’s hitting .429 with 4 doubles and a homer vs LHP to date this season. We have to save somewhere and why not do it in what seems to be the ideal matchup for a player of this price. Cross your fingers that he’s hitting up in the lineup.
Outfield
Yordan Alvarez, OF: ($3,600) – This dude is built for Yankee Stadium. German doesn’t strike out lefties and allows plenty of fly balls. He’s looked better his last two times out, though one was against the Orioles. The Astros might be a nice sneaky stack vs German in a game that’s not hard to see becoming a slugfest if Greinke and German aren’t on their game. I’m not counting on Greinke and German both blowing up, but a guy can dream.
Trent Grisham, OF: ($3,800) – Keller will leave the Pirates in two years and be awesome. Until then, he’ll continue to go out there and give up plenty of runs. Keller owns a 6.00 xFIP vs Lefties this season, that’s atrocious. He allows a ton of fly balls and plenty of hard contact. I like the Padres lefties tonight led by Grisham, who hits the hell out of the ball and has 7 xBH vs RHP so far in just 65 ABs.
Cedric Mullins, OF: ($3,100) – I feel as though every time I look to the box scores, Mullins has done something. He’s hit very well from both sides of the plate, including 3 homers and 7 doubles vs RHP.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: ($2,900) & Randal Grichuk, OF: ($2,800) – Both guys have the power to hit it out at any time no matter the stadium. They hit lefties well, especially Grichuk who has 5 xBH in just 26 ABs to this point in the season. The Jays will be tough to get to unless you’re going the Nola, Pivetta, or lower, but these two can be a nice mini-stack vs Cole Irvin.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The Mets @ Cardinals looks like there’s a major chance of rain up to start time and through the first few innings. It looks to be fading off as the game goes on. Possible late start here but things could change. Check weather updates in St. Louis prior to using deGrom.
HOU @ NYY / MIL @ PHI – There’s going to be some lingering rain throughout the northeast later today. Be aware of possible delays, though I’m not sure it’ll be enough to stop the games from being played. Just keep an eye out in New York and Philly.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I don’t like betting against Greinke. BUT, this 8 ½ line in the HOU @ NYY game seems a bit low to me. Like I mentioned earlier, this game could be a pitcher’s duel, but I can see this game turning ugly if the bats are alive and well. These teams have met plenty in the playoffs and are going to be ready for this matchup. I’m taking the OVER.
