What is up everybody? Yeah, I know you’re checking your calendars right now. “Everywhere, aren’t you supposed to be here on Mondays?” Yes, I’ll be here on Mondays for ever and ever and ever, at least until the Greybot gives up and sells the site to Venutian Real Estate Prospectors. But, keen-eyed readers will remember that yours truly was promoted to “Clubbie,” and I’ve been filling out my desk with stolen lunches and dirtied laundry of the Razzball staff. I also get an extra DFS column every other Saturday. So, uh, hi!
Now, for DFS, I want you taking advantage of recency bias. Why? Because Rudy’s got your regressed data ready in the DFS Bot and I’m not going to replicate what he’s doing. Ya know — best of both worlds stuff! That said, I wish you the best of luck with whatever DFS slates you enter today, and here’s who I think has a chance of making the highlight reel today:
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Caution: Putting this in Saturday Morning: there’s some weather causing distractions and some players getting reactions from their vaxx and some other players just hanging around their Covid friends. So, you’ll need to be agile with your picks today. I’m putting a list of “pivots” at the bottom that don’t have a ton of detail, but should be lower-rostered and useful for DFS.
Jacob deGrom: SP, $11,000 — The pitching guy who just wrote a billion words about not drafting pitching early is telling you to take the most expensive pitcher in the slate. Well, yeah. You don’t win tournaments by choosing Chad Kuhl. ENYWHEY. DeGrom’s doing his thing and you’d be remiss to leave him out of a cash lineup against the Marlins, who have the 25th worst wRC+ in MLB through the first week. Of course, temper expectations: deGrom’s xERA in his first outing was above 5.00. We’re still in April and yes, the internet pundits looooove deGrom’s velocity. But a SIERA of 3.40 and the 5x factor difference between ERA and xERA means he’s really expensive and the best pick because (looks at slate) everybody else kinda sucks.
Carlos Martinez: SP, $6900 — No, no I don’t like this pick. But, let’s be fair: tomorrow when you’re inputting your lineups, I’m not looking over your shoulder watching. Milwaukee is the worst hitting team in the majors so far…or is it yet again? C-Mart was less than thrilling his first time out, but the Cardinals have a great defense and a mere “OK” performance on a weak pitching slate could get you a nice return. Saturday Morning Edit: Looks like rain in STL, check the schedule before submission lock.
Jose Urquidy: SP, $7800 — Oakland is off to a slow start, with 3 homers combined as a team along with a 26% K rate. Urquidy got super-lucky in his first start, but his 2.30 FIP shows promise. Again, it’s a weak pitching slate, and Urquidy is one of those contrarian picks that could return some money.
Zach Eflin: SP, $9600 — I’m watching the Braves crush the Phillies right now. But, before this drubbing, the Braves were the second worst batting team in MLB. Maybe they’ve got it figured out now? Sure. But they had a 32% K rate going into tonight. Eflin K’d 8 through 7 innings in his first outing — are we looking at a match made in contrarian heaven?
Michael Brantley (OF, $3800) and Carlos Correa (SS, $3000) — Oakland sends out Frankie Montas, who only made it 2 IP in his first start and had an FIP of 4.74 in 2020. And! The Athletics’ bullpen is a complete mess. In fact, the A’s relievers are the second worst in MLB right now. So, take your Astros hitters. Brantley’s got some wrist soreness, so watch out for him, but otherwise, you’re looking at two hitters that have historically crushed Montas (nearly 1.000 OPS in over 15AB each). So, get those stacks flowing!
Dylan Carlson (OF, $3100), Yadier Molina (C, $2500), and Paul Goldschmidt (1B, $3800) — Milwaukee theoretically has a good bullpen but they’ve been struggling right now. Adrian Houser — the projected starter for Saturday — is on a bit of a redemption tour, and he did pretty “meh” on his first outing. That said, he’s not a huge K guy, and the Cards walk into a premier hitting situation that could return a lot of value. Carlson, Molina, and Goldschmidt each look promising for their price point, with Carlson being the best value of the bunch. Be wary: storms are going through the midwest and could ruin this game. Saturday Morning Edit: Looks like rain in STL, check the schedule before submission lock.
Jordan Luplow (OF, $2700), Cesar Hernandez (2B, $2700), and Jose Ramirez (3B, $4100) — Cleveland faces off against Detroit, and the Tigers’ bullpen is the most prone to giving up the long ball of any pen in MLB. Cesar Hernandez is surprisingly effective against Tigers’ projected starter Tarik Skubal, and his .143 BABIP shows that he’s in a prime position for a breakout. At $2700, he’s a nice option. Luplow is hot right now and would be worth a start in a tournament because few people will be rostering him.
Cincinnati Reds: Hey, whoever you like! They’re the hottest hitting team in baseball going against the paltry Diamondbacks, so throw a couple of them into your tournament lineup to make the salary cap work.
Pivots: Matt Olson ($2700), Jesse Winker (watch wrist, not wrist watch), Trent Grisham ($2500 steal!), Juan Soto (Dodgers bullpen has been really bad so far), Trea Turner (Urned those treats), Ian Happ (leading off against PIT). Good luck!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
I’m no weatherman, but there looks to be a big-ass storm moving through the central and south. It might affect the Cardinals/Brewers game, the Royals/White Sox game, and the Phillies/Braves. Winds are projected to be pretty manageable throughout the US. Check your weather reports before submitting lineups. *Saturday Morning Edit* : The Royals / White Sox game has been postponed. Keep an eye open for other delays or postponements before submitting your rosters. If you’re doing a full slate, you might want to take advantage of the HOU/CLE pairs/stacks that I put above because those games look safe.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
I’m seeing Colorado at +150 right now against the Giants. There are five Rockies batters with an OPS greater than .900 against projected pitcher Logan Webb, and Webb — ya know — isn’t the kind of pitcher that sets the world on fire. Colorado looks like the underdog now, but the game’s going to be a shootout and the Rockies could walk out of there winners. Feel free to stack these teams too because it looks like hitters gonna hit.
