I can’t keep myself away from Phillies starter Aaron Nola on Wednesday as he takes on the Marlins. Nola has been rolling through lineups this season and is coming off of four consecutive outings with a quality start. Much has been made about his decrease in K-rate, but he’s still got a fantastic 3.27 FIP, which is the exact same mark he had last season. In fact, his Deserved Run Average has actually improved to 2.88 this year, largely due to the amount of weak contact he’s been able to generate. There’s never a bad time to start Nola, but his matchup today makes it an even easier decision. The Marlins are dead last in wOBA versus right-handed pitching, at just .271, and their 25.0% K-rate is the fifth highest in baseball. Nola also gets to face them in the Crayola Canyon, in front of all 12 Marlins fans. Wait, Marlins Man didn’t renew his season tickets? Okay, make that 11. Anyway, let’s get into more of my favorite picks…
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Andrew Heaney, SP: To quote Action Bronson, I’ll be “drinking Henny like I’m Kenny Lofton” on Wednesday night. And by Henny I mean Heaney! If you close one eye and ignore his blowup outing against the Giants, you’ll see that Heaney has had two fantastic starts this season, including his last where he struck out nine Yankees in just five innings, allowing only one earned run. He should be able to rack up some more whiffs against the Orioles tonight, as they strike out 25.9% of the time against lefties. Furthermore, Angel Stadium is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. He shouldn’t be tough to land in your drafts.
Francisco Lindor, IF: Frankie is getting back into his groove, batting .320 with a 1.052 OPS and two homers in the past week. Rangers starter Matt Moore is still just as bad (if not worse) than he was last year, so the Indians should have a big day against him. As their leadoff man, Lindor will have the opportunity to score lots of runs. I’d try to pair him with a guy like Michael Brantley or Edwin Encarnacion if you can.
Javier Baez, IF: For those of you living under a rock: Baez is absolutely destroying the ball this year. He’s already got seven homers with a .630 SLG, and we’ve got strong winds blowing out in Wrigley today. Baez has hit lefties much better throughout his career and gets one to face in Tyler Anderson.
Xander Bogaerts, IF: X-Man is another lefty-killer to take advantage of on Wednesday. He’s got a career 127 wRC+ against southpaws and has been killing it since returning from the DL. Royals starter Danny Duffy has gone full pumpkin this year, posting a 5.40 ERA, and he probably won’t have a fun time facing Bogaerts in Fenway.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: Hernandez has lived up to the hype thus far, flashing his potent power/speed combo and cutting his strikeout rate down to 21.7%. He’s facing Twins starter Fernando Romero, who is making his MLB debut. If Teoscar can hit this well against proven major leaguers, he should tee off on Romero.
Christian Yelich, OF: LOL, remember when Luis Castillo was supposed to be an ace? The dude can barely get anybody out anymore, and his home ballpark is one of the best hitting environments in the majors. Yelich should have an explosive day out of the two-hole… gross!
Marcell Ozuna, OF: Okay, after trash-talking every other starting pitcher on today’s slate, I think we’ve finally come to the worst of them all: Lucas Giolito. He’s got a hilarious 8.9% K-rate and 17.1% walk-rate (no, I did not mix those two up) with a 7.71 ERA. Ozuna has sucked this season, but he should have no issues against Giolito.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Chance of a thunderstorm tonight in St. Louis for the CHW-STL matchup, but it should only be a delay at worst.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Even with Wade Miley on the mound, I’ll give Milwaukee a chance at +110. I trust their lineup over the Reds if there’s a high-scoring matchup.
