Fantasy Baseball Advice

Seattle Mariners 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (24) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (24) | 2006 (27) | 2005 (11) | 2004 (12)

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.

The G-Sizzle Fizzle loses more carbonation as we head into September.  Grady Sizemore will undergo surgery prior to the end of the season.  This means you will lose him at some point this month.  The longer the Indians push him the more of a chance that he may not be ready for spring training.  The Indians are playing for $23 worth of trinkets right now so this is a no-brainer for them.  And a no-brainer is the Indians’ management specialty.  They called up Michael Brantley to eventually fill-in full-time for Sizemore.  Last night, Brantley played left field (went 2-for-4, batted 9th).  In 115 games in Triple-A, Brantley had 43 steals.  He’ll probably be a liability on average, but for those steal-starved teams out there — SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Left with a tight hamstring.  Had one of those last Thanksgiving on the Hormel.  Had to chew around it.

Michael Young – His hamstring is a little more serious with a strain.  If I had to guess, I’d say he’s headed to the DL.  Though, knowing the way Young loves his 200 hit seasons, he may just play gimpy.  Hehe, I said gimpy.

Neftali Feliz – Has one earned run, 26 Ks and ONE WALK (caps for emphasis and the guy reading over your shoulder) in 19 and two-thirds innings.  Holy heffin hey!

Josh Hamilton – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his season total to ten.  Almost as big a bust as the one he was seen licking whipped cream off of.

Chris Davis – 5-for-8 in yesterday’s doubleheader with a homer.  And no strikeouts!

Tim Hudson – Last time he pitched in the majors, I titled the post, “Whoscow for the Hudson,” and he went off to see, Dr. Freeze.  (Oddly, in the post where Hudson was injured, so was Michael Young.  They’re cosmically linked, I tell ya.  Kismet, I say.  When Michael Young slides, Tim Hudson’s pants get dirty.)  Hudson’s line this game (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks) is almost exactly what I would imagine you’ll get from him the rest of the season.  Iffy five inning games.  Worth it in some leagues, not in others.

Jorge Posada – 2 HRs yesterday.  Why doesn’t he have a “de la” in the middle of his name?

Carlos Guillen – It pains me to keep saying nice things about Guillen, yet here he is again with another homer.

Andy Marte – Now has 4 homers in the last seven games.  I dropped some schmohawk for him in one of my leagues.  This is a trust exercise.  Just fall into Marte’s arms.  He’ll catch you.

Carlos Carrasco – 3 IP, 6 ER.  Was in my September call ups Markie Post-thingie.  I said I liked him for next season.  Never said I liked him for this one.  Okay, I did like him for this one, but that was last December.

Cole Hamels – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Hey, Cole, nice of you to join us for September.

Jonathan Sanchez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  His walks aren’t a thing of beauty, but you know what is?  His collection of air sickness bags? No, I’m going to tell you, random italicized voice.  His Ks.  He has 145 Ks in 132 1/3 innings.  That makes him ownable everywhere.  Well, except in 4 x 4 leagues, but no one plays them anymore, do they?

David Wright - Went 1-for-3 in his return as he wore an American Gladiator helmet.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 Ks.  Glad to see he didn’t lose his lack of stuff in the minors.

Garrett Jones – Another homer.  Argh, I’m actually excited for Pirates.  Okay, pop quiz, hot shot.  Who’s been more valuable this year, Garrett Jones or Ryan Ludwick?  You infer the answer.

Mike Carp – Called up for the M’s and should see a decent amount of time.  He has moderate pop, not a great average.  Outside of deep leagues (>12), I’d just wait to see.  (BTW, that’s a greater than symbol and a twelve.  Not some kind of weird teenager texting language meaning a heart next to a coat hanger or something.)

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Has a 2.90 ERA on the year with 133 1/3 innings.  Is his name in the Rookie of the Year convos?  Hmm, I just did, didn’t I?  For what it’s worth, and I guess it is worth something since you’re reading this, I think Wells is going to slightly disappoint next year.

Jeff Manship – 5 IP, 1 ER vs. the Called It A Day White Sox.  Besides having a last name that sounds like a cruise hosted by Adam Carolla, Manship has good control and decent K-stuff.  Listen, if the Twins start him, he’s probably better than most.  He’ll have the same growing pains as most rookie pitchers, but could have matchup potential.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Another solid start from The dlR.  I hope the Rockies miss the playoffs just so dlR’s innings stay low(er) and I can draft him without worries next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – 1-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  You know what I really like here?  Besides the homer, he was only on base once (a walk) and he stole a base.  That’s the kind of initiative we need in September.

Clayton Richard – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If he didn’t pitch well in Petco vs. the Nats, there would have been problems.

Vicente Padilla – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  It’s nice in the NL West, ain’t it?

Felix Pie – HR yesterday for his 4th homer in the last eight games.  No idea where the power is coming from.  Maybe Aubrey Huff left behind some corked bats.  Whatever the case, when the player’s hot, grab them.  By the time I write about him in the Buy section of Friday’s post, Pie may no longer be hot.

Adam Jones – Left the game with an ankle injury.  Is it me or is this guy injured every other week?  Maybe he’s doing it to get a prescription of medicinal marijuana.