Fantasy Baseball Advice

Washington Nationals: Another turn on the closerousel for the Nationals, as Henry Rodriguez is no longer taking the ball in the 9th. BiBi showed the world on Wednesday that Davey Johnson was wrong for demoting him by allowing a homerun and walking a batter without recording a K. Tyler Clippard locked the door Tuesday with a clean outing and a K, picking up the save. He’s in the pole position for the job and has the skills (13.2% career swinging strike rate, 2.97 career ERA) to keep it until Drew Storen or Brad Lidge return. Sean Burnett has had slight issues with right-handed bats in his career – a near even walk-to-strikeout rate and a FIP/xFIP a full run higher than against LHB – and may grab the odd save based on matchups or if Clippard is used on consecutive days. Craig Stammen has flourished in his transition to the bullpen, but hasn’t been used in many late-inning situations as of yet and is likely third in the pecking order.

Cincinnati Reds: Sean Marshall continues his 2+ years of dominance by putting up career bests in K (31.4%), BB (4.4%), and GB (59.1%)… oh, and his .476 BABIP led to several blown leads and Aroldis Chapman inheriting Marshall’s post in the Red regime. Viva La Revolution! Chapman has struck out 43 of 91 batters faced and owns a 0.42 FIP this season. Those are not typos. He struggled throwing strikes last season and still put up a 3.60 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. He may well end this season with an ERA under 1.50 and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Word is that Chapman doesn’t like pitching in back-to-back games; Marshall will get a save opportunity in such a situation.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura has officially named Addison Reed the closer for the Pale Hose. Reed’s lowest K% in the minors was 34.2% – he’s the best pitcher in the White Sox bullpen and will package his saves in a bundle of strikeouts. Expect his walk rate to drop a little as an added bonus. Jesse Crain looks to be the add if Reed falters.

New York Yankees: Joe Girardi indicated Wednesday that Rafael Soriano will be the closer even when David Robertson returns from the DL. Soriano is missing fewer bats and throwing fewer strikes than last season, so if you own Robertson, enjoy the Ks and wait until Soriano lights himself on fire.

Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim Orange County: Ernesto Frieri has struck out 37 of his 82 batters faced this season, and 19 of 32 since joining the Angels. Scott Downs has sat down 7 of 50 batters on strikes. I did the math, it says Frieri should be owned. He obviously won’t continue to strike out 3 of every 5 batters he faces, but he’s a better pitcher than Downs and as soon as Downs has a rough inning I think Frieri officially gets the nod.

Chicago Cubs: Rafael Dolis farted liquid from the mound again Wednesday, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks before getting pulled. Kazaam! He throws his fastball 90% of the time and sports a K/BB ratio of 10/13. I’m amazed he’s even in the big leagues. James Russell is next in line for saves for now, and he possesses a 15/10 K/BB mark in 21 innings. That counts as sparkling on the Cubs. I honestly think Carlos Marmol falls back into the job when he comes back from the DL, and would be the only Cub I’d own at gunpoint. The entire Cubs bullpen is an unmitigated disaster.

Arizona Diamondbacks: J.J. Putz was hosed on what should have been a called second strike and a thrown out runner at second base, but alas, he surrendered two walks and a double, blowing his third save of the season Tuesday night. His velocity was 90/91 MPH for the night, and he’s had trouble with first pitch strikes this season (51.5%, down from 65.9% last season). He’s throwing total strikes at near career rates, and batters are chasing more of his pitches out of the zone than ever before; Putz’s problem is that hitters are teeing off on pitches in the zone, making contact at a 92.2% clip (86.5% last season). Assuming his velocity drop was a one night issue, I think he’ll regain his command and be fine. His struggles seem like statistical noise at this juncture.

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford cost Madison Bumgarner (and me) a win by booting a groundball, and Santiago Casilla (and my opponent) picked up the win in extra innings. No breaking news here, just wanted to reveal how petty I am. Sergio Romo is a better pitcher, but arm issues prevent him from handling an every day workload, thus Casilla is the man for the Giants.

As we mentioned earlier this month, we created an ‘expert’ league that follows the same rules as the Razzball Commenter League and will be included in the master standings.  Will the Expert League reign supreme (Iron Chef^TM) in competitive index or will several RCL leagues put the experts in their place?  We shall see…

Here are the participants in the first annual Razzball ‘Expert’ League (links if they posted a draft review):

Razzball – Grey Albright
Razzball – Rudy Gamble
Yahoo! – Brandon Funston
Yahoo! – Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! – Andy Behrens
FanGraphs – Eno Sarris
Hardball Times – Jonathan Halket
MLBTradeRumors.com/RotoAuthority – Tim Dierkes
Mastersball – Ryan Carey
Rotowire – Dalton Del Don
SI.com – Eric Mack
Steamer Projections – Dash Davidson

Here’s a link to the entire Draft Recap:

Grey:

As mentioned in our 2nd podcast, ESPN screwed me for messing with them for the last five years.  Right before my 1st pick, my computer crashed.  Here’s me during the draft.  “Hey, I have the 7th pick.  Awesome.  I’m gonna have a 1st baseman.  I might even get Votto.  I wonder who that lady is watering her lawn across the street.  Maybe I’ll stand up carefully to make sure I don’t knock over my coffee and get a better look–NOOOOOO!  Crap, mother-effin’, son-of-a-motherless-goat!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Okay, it’s rebooting… I have a minute and thirty seconds… Reboot!  DAH!  I drafted Robinson Cano!”  And then that dictated just about all my other hitter picks.  Since I had Cano, I couldn’t grab Kinsler, didn’t want a shortstop and the only 1st baseman or 3rd baseman within the vicinity was Tex and I wasn’t drafting him with my 18th pick.  So I took Giancarlo.  Then I really felt like I needed to make sure I had some sorta corner man so I reached for Zimmerman.  Not feeling totally comfortable with Zimmerman as my 3rd baseman, I reached for Hosmer for my other corner.  Then I felt like if Zimmerman got hurt again, I should have another 3rd baseman, so I grabbed Aramis, then I realized later on that Aramis wasn’t a clean bill of health either so I grabbed Chisenhall.  Then I dropped Chisenhall when he was demoted and grabbed Smoak for the two game Japaning Day, then, when those games ended, I grabbed Eric Thames.

I may have 5 aces when it’s all said and done.  I wouldn’t even need Gio on this staff, but he fell so far down that I wasn’t going to let him go.  I’m not worried about saves, even if my closers are little iffy.  SAGNOF!  Since I had Cano and Hosmer, I took some guys that may be average drains, but should give steals and power.  Though, I do think average will be one of my biggest concerns.  In true Grey fashion (I love to pick up and drop players and talk about myself in third person), I’ve already made a few moves on pitching too.  Dropped Fuentes (right after Balfour became the closer) and grabbed Bourgeois.  Bourgeois is the kinda of guy that if he sneaks into a large playing role or if I switch him in only when he plays, he could get me 30 cheap steals.  SAGNOF!  I dropped Stauffer and grabbed Lidge when Storen was hurting (Clippard was drafted) and dropped Crain for Henry Rodriguez.  It’s a bit of a shizzshow, but, in some ways, I like to be able to juggle my last roster spots so I don’t care I wasted a pick on Chisenhall, Fuentes, etc.  Rudy gets a lot more tied to his drafts than I do.  In the end, I think I still have a solid team.  By the time you read this, I may have made three more pick-ups and drops.

Rudy:

At this point in the draft season, I’m starting to get predictable in my early round draft behavior.  I was really happy picking 10th with the confidence that either Joey Votto or (more likely) Adrian Gonzalez would fall to me and I wouldn’t have to worry about overpaying for a 1B later in the draft.  As luck should have it, Grey’s computer crashed and he auto-picked Robinson Cano vs. his preferred Joey Votto pick who came gift-wrapped to me at #10.   Longoria was an easy choice at #15 as I figured there would still be top SPs on the board by the time I picked next at #34.  The experts were more aggressive than I figured at drafting SPs however as Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Lee, F-Her, and Lincecum were all off the board.  Luckily, I liked Greinke slightly more than F-Her and Lincecum.  But I also liked Jay Bruce for this pick and, in retrospect, probably should’ve gamed Greinke was the more likely of the two to make it me at pick #39.  Hunter Pence was the consolation prize.

I spread out my SP selections and seemed to have a lot of success nabbing K-friendly pitchers (Lester, Beachy, Morrow).  I specifically drafted Lewis and Nolasco in later rounds because of their solid WHIPs (which help balance out Morrow).  For the first time in years, I drafted the first closer off the board (Kimbrel – 6th round/63rd pick) as the value was too great given his obscene K-rate.  Marmol and Putz came at decent values at Rounds 11/12 and I was glad to be done with closers before a closer run occurred (10 closers went in the next 33 picks after Putz).

As for offense, I just drafted for value and was able to avoid inadvertently punting AVG or SBs.  I reached for Jose Altuve whom I think has 30 SB upside with solid AVG and, like several of my teams this year, got solid R/RBI value out of my other MI spots (Alexei Ramirez, Neil Walker).

All in all, this was about as good of a draft as I could’ve hoped for.  I don’t think my team has any major weaknesses and hopefully my team has good injury karma.  It’ll be interesting to see how well I do in this type of format (12 team, daily changes) – especially without Grey as co-manager

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

As I awake from my winter hibernation where dreams of twins named Thompson abounded, I realize the time is neigh to learn you all about the potential holds fantasy standouts for the upcoming year. Anyone that knows me knows I love relief pitching, come into my apartment you will see embroidered pillows with my favorite relievers over the years stitched in effigy. Now you’re prolly saying, “Smokey, my league doesn’t use holds,” I say blasphemy. Counting stats is the key here, holds are a category but the counting peripheral numbers they will aide is the key to fantasy prosperity. Everybody knows the key guys below that have a lot of value in most leagues, but I am here to tell you about them (again!) plus the guys that will be useful and aren’t the fantasy stalwarts that we are accustomed. Much props to the Don of Holds who is still searching for a job, Arthur Rhodes.  I hope his first hold is a masculine one.  So enjoy the list of these middle men who help out Holds for 2012 fantasy baseball:

AL

David Robertson - How good was he last year? He finished 11th in the C Young voting and 22nd in the MVP. It’s the highest ranking I could find since 1996 for a non-closing reliever.

Mike Adams - Has become the Cy Spurling of holds. Should reach consigliere status to Art Rhodes.

Glen Perkins - A personal fave of mine because he prolly goes 15/15. For those of you slow on the button, that’s saves and holds.

Jesse Crain - Won’t be caught up in the Reed/Thornton closing sitch. Will plod along as being the most underrated reliever in the AL, and make the All Star game because of it.

Greg Holland - Future closer, but has guys that look the part better for now in front of him. So he is relegated to set-up and has to bide his time like Cobra Commander.

Casey Janssen – Is behind the Latino puppet show known as CoCo and Sergio. Could be a good vulture win candidate again this year, and who doesn’t like something of the aviary variety.

Tony Sipp – Three 6 Mafia must have been fantasy ballers, predicting the future. Cause I would Sipp it faster then Jonny Jolly can make it. On a side note, go buy stock in Vinnie Pestano, if you don’t know now you ya know.

Scott Downs – One season in last 5 with an ERA over 3. Crazy good and will see tons of leads with the celestial bodies.

Joel Peralta - My second 15/15 guy here. Has the guy who used to carry P Diddy’s umbrella ahead of him. Yeah, nuff said.

Joaquin Benoit - Is it just me or whenever you see the name Joaquin you think about a cleft palette? Primary to Valverde, which is hamslapping fantastic.

NL

Sergio Romo - No Tony Romo cracks here… Okay, I lied.  He has the same amount of wins in the playoffs as Tony. Uber effective RH who could fill in if Wilson’s Beard has an out of body experience.

Tyler Clippard - The glasses play; I’m sorry, but they do. Back end of The Nats bullpen is scary good, too bad no one else knows it besides me.

Jose Veras - Who? Yeah, exactly. Had a sneaky great year in the Land of Three Rivers last year.

Marc Rzepczynski - Bobby Digital makes the list, for two reasons. One, I like attempting to spell his name and failing then having to cut and paste it. Second, he isn’t anywhere near the closer spot in the Lou and will see lots of hold opps.

Eric O’Flaherty - The other other white meat in Braves pen. Kimbrel and Venters get the pub, but this guy pitches literally everyday.

Edward Mujica - Is tied with Jim Johnson with J’s in their last name. That random factoid is brought to you by the alphabet. Primary set-up guy to Bell, and jumped over what’s his name.

David Hernandez - Literally waiting for a Putz to fail. Oh, the irony is just to easy write about so go out get a Mad Libs and create your own.

Bill Bray - Loogy’s and Dusty, sounds like a trailer park brochure description. Nope, it’s the Nati’s bullpen.

Antonio Bastardo - Pitches like he really has a daddy, though we read it and he seems like he doesn’t… Weird, but true.

Sean Marshall - Looks like there is a new sheriff in Cincinnati. Oh, Pun Fairy, you kill me. Here is a dollar go away. Madson’s elbow is kinda wonky already, so the Marshall could reach that 15/15 status.

Since our last Closer Look, we’ve had some comings and goings.  One coming was Pestano, who last year said Eataly should give out free pizza toppings if you’re wearing Crocs.  With Chris Perez going down for 4 to 6 weeks with the ever-mysterious oblique injury, Pestano should see some saves into the beginning of the year.  Double negatives aside, I wouldn’t not draft Perez.  He should resume the closer job once he returns because the Indians are committed to him, in the same way Courtney Love should be committed.  Another coming was Brett Myers, who will take over the Astros closing job.  If you grab Myers at a draft, you’re gonna get beat up.  Not speaking metaphorically.  If you draft Myers, you should be fine for 25ish saves.  Another bit of closer news pertains to Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour.  The A’s are saying Fuentes and Balfour are both up for the closer job.  Balfour is the better option, but clubs don’t always go with the best option.  (Actually, the best option would be Faustino De Los Santos, but he’s not going to be the closer right out of the gate.)  I’d draft Fuentes and Balfour (and FDLS in very deep leagues, an acronym that sounds like a dyslexic branch of Latter-Day Saints).  Finally, Javy Guerra was announced the closer to start the season by Don Mattingly, who lost all common sense once he shaved his mustache, which is not a coincidence.  Guerra could be the closer for the whole season while having one of the best middle men behind him, kind of how Marmol used to work that role.  Or Guerra could blow three saves in April and Jansen will be the closer by April 20th.  I think there’s a 50/50 chance either scenario happens.  I’d draft both.  If Jansen goes to the bullpen, maybe the free time will allow Kenley an opportunity to think about designing with something other than polka dots and prove she deserved to be a Project Runway All-Star (hey, four girl readers, who loves you?).  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Drew Storen (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
4. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
5. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Jose Valverde (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
7. Brian Wilson (Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla)
8. J.J. Putz (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
9. Heath Bell (Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo, Mike Dunn)
10. Carlos Marmol (Kerry Wood, Jeff Samardzija)
11. Joakim Soria (Jonathon Broxton, Greg Holland)
12. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek)
13. Ryan Madson (Sean Marshall, Nick Masset)
14. Jason Motte (+1) (Eduardo Sanchez)
15. Huston Street (+1) (Luke Gregerson)
16. Andrew Bailey (+1) (Mark Melancon, Bobby Jenks)
17. Sergio Santos (+1) (Francisco Cordero)
18. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, LaTroy Hawkins)
19. Kyle Farnsworth (+1) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

20. Javy Guerra (-6) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Frank Francisco (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
22. Rafael Betancourt (Rex Brothers)
23. Matt Thornton (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed)
24. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
25. Brandon League (Shawn Kelley, Hong-Chih Kuo)
26. Jim Johnson (+1)(Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Brett Myers (+3) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett)
29. Grant Balfour/Brian Fuentes (Joey Devine, Faustino De Los Santos)
30. Vinnie Pestano (-4) (Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, Chief Wahoo)