Fantasy Baseball Advice

Lance Berkman is scheduled to have arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will be out two to four weeks.  I expect he’ll miss at least a week of the season.  Maybe two.  And even though it’s at worst two weeks of the season, I dropped his projections (to see them, go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball), because when older players need knee surgery after bumping their knees, well, it concerns me.  Luckily for Astro fans, Ed Wade planned way ahead for an injury to Lance Berkman.  Step right up, Geoff Blum!  Wait!  This just in!  Ed Wade just traded Lance Berkman’s physician for a box of Triscuits. Wade, “If anyone can do this surgery, it’s this box of Triscuits.  They’re so woven!”  Anyway, here’s some other news in fantasy baseball:

Jose Reyes – As you probably know by now, Reyes is going to miss 2 to 8 weeks with a wonky thyroid.  He’ll likely begin the year on the 15-day DL.  Which is not the same as being on the DL for the entire year.  Hopefully.  I said this about the whole Reyes thyroid issue when it happened.  I’ve also updated my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, top 100 and top 300 rankings.  Right now, I have Berkman in a Cousteau-deep league and Reyes in a league with no bench.  If you need me, I’ll be on the roof of my building waiting for someone to push me.  Since this isn’t a leg issue, I wouldn’t turn down Reyes if he fell to me in the 4th round.

Carlos Beltran – Some people wondered if the Mets could keep their injury news streak alive in 2010.  So far, so good, huh?  Beltran says he should be ready to start rehab games in April, which would put him on a timetable to return to the Mets towards the end of April.  He’s not a safe pick, but I’d start considering him around the 100th overall pick.  Doubt his steals return to their previous glory, but he could be the three-hole hitter for the majority of the season and get 20+ homers.

Brandon Lyon – Faced live hitters today for the fist time.  I’m assuming those live hitters were happy.  Lyon should be ready in time for the start of the season.  I still think he’s the guy the Astros turn to to close out most games.  Lindstrom should still be owned for those vulturing and handcuffing.

Gaby Sanchez – Inside track on the 1st base job.  He’s my backup for Berkman.  Wish us well.

Brian Roberts – Taking pain meds… Aw, Sickie Roberts.  I haven’t owned Roberts in many years because I thought he was overrated, but I was starting to come around on him.  Now that he’s still dealing with a herniated disc, maybe I’ll go back to my original stance.  Hey, his herniated disc is making me boomerang! (<–Australian humor)

The murmurs of Heath Bell getting traded to another team by July are getting louder.  (BTW, I love the word murmurs.  I really wanted the survivors on Lost to call The Others, The Murmurs.  Wouldn’t that have been awesome?!  Okay, maybe me.)  Prepare for a dozen or so posts titled, “For Whom the Bell Tolls,” at some of our weak sister sites.  And by “weak sister,” I’m talking prison slang and I mean ESPN.  I moved Bell down one whole spot.  I’m not worried in March about someone who might get traded in July.  He will probably drop one or two spots each month until July.  If you get 23 saves, a 1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 42 Ks in 37 1/3 innings pre-All-Star Break, you’ll be mad you drafted him?  Bee tee dubya, those were his 1st half numbers last year.  Then who knows where he goes.  Maybe Lidge and Madson finally give Manuel a coronary and Bell takes over the closing duties in Philly as Victorino player-manages.  Or maybe Bell goes somewhere else.  You get the picture; it’s still early.  Don’t overestimate-slash-overthink-slash-overrate… Just don’t “over” anything.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Francisco Rodriguez (+2) (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
6. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (-1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
10. David Aardsma (-1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Brad Lidge (+3) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
25. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
26. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
27. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
28. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (Jeremy Accardo, The Pigeon That Dave Winfield Killed’s Vengeful Grandson)

We all know Chone Figgins loves stealing 2nd base, but he might be starting early this year. After a brisk calisthenic session, Don Wakamatsu decided to try Figgy at 2nd base with Jose Lopez shifting to 3rd base.  The Mariners haven’t had this amount of speed at 2nd base since they faced David Eckstein and Ichiro moved up 50 steps.  Suddenly, Figgins’s Sparky Anklebiter power and top tier speed looks much better.  It would catapult him to the top 7 of the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010.  I’d rank him right after Cano and in a promising tier.  Going for steals at 2nd base wouldn’t hurt nearly as much at 3rd base.  But he’s not there yet and, frankly, I don’t think the move to 2nd is going to happen, barring an injury to Jose Lopez.  When you have players comfortable at their position, you don’t mess with it for s’s and g’s.  But since we’re going down this road, it helps Jose Lopez’s value too.  Not as much though. Or maybe Lopez will replace Kotchko at 1st.  Ah, rumors, surrounding me every day.  Anyway, here’s what else is happening in fantasy baseball:

Russell Branyan – Landed with the Indians.  Yippee.  He’s covered in the top 20 1st basemen post that is actually the top 24 1st basemen post.  Now tough actin’ Manny Acta is saying Branyan’s going to play 1st base, LaPorta is going to play left field and Michael Brantley… Well, Brantley’s shizz out of luck.  Brantley’s value obviously plummets if he starts the season in the minors.  It’s still early so things can happen.  Doesn’t look good right now.  My real question is how did Manny Acta get another job managing a Major League team?  Did he really impress that many people in Washington?  A career .385% managerial winning percentage sparked interest?  For some reason this made me think of my grocery shopping.  Expectations are super low when I go grocery shopping.  I buy frozen fried chicken and toilet paper.  That covers everything.  Literally.  But no one’s hiring me to do their grocery shopping.  This is Manny Acta.  He’s a manager that buys easy-to-prepare fried chicken and toilet paper.

Eric Gagne – The Canadian ex-Dodger admitted to using HGH.  He should’ve blamed it on socialized medicine.

Felipe Lopez – Looks headed to the Cards.  Does nothing to his value, which is already mentioned in the top 20 2nd basemen.

Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom – The Astros know they’re going to win 70 games, they’re just not sure who’s going to close them.  My guess is Lyon will get the majority of the saves.  Ed Wade said, “I know there have been a lot of successful teams over the last dozen years or so who have used more than one closer to get to the finish line.” Look at Ed checking his facts or so!  As of right now, I’d draft both of them.  If you draft Lyon, you should try and get Lindstrom too.  In fantasy baseball and S&M, they call this handcuffing.  If you play with people like me, your leaguemates will immediately draft Lindstrom right after you draft Lyon.  Miserable cork-soakers!

Cameron Maybin – He’s excited to hit 2nd this year.  That makes two of us, friend.

Francisco Liriano – Francisco Liriano reported he’s healthy and eager to take the mound.  Only problem is Liriano reported that in January of 2008.  I only point this out as a reminder to keep health reports, positive and negative, in perspective during Spring Training.  Every year the Royals are a contender in February, Boof Bonser’s lost weight, Milton Bradley’s turned over a new leaf, Manny’s going to retire and Jesus Colome reminds a reporter it’s Hay-Zeus.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Crawfish Boxes.

1) Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom or Door Number 3?  Who’s going to be the closer for the majority of 2010 and what kind of numbers do you see them putting up?

Despite the gaudy contract he just signed (3 yr/$15 million) I don’t think that Brandon Lyon will end up closing that many games for the Astros. He is, as much as I and fellow Astro fans may want to deny, a slightly above average relief pitcher. He if plenty good enough to be a solid set up man, but ill suited in my estimation to be our regular closer.

Matt Lindstrom entered 2009 as the gas tossing Marlin closer. After injuring himself at the World Baseball Classic, Lindstrom never achieved the sort of success in South Florida that the Fish would have liked. A year later, Lindstrom isn’t penciled in as the Astros’ closer, but he is in the running. A 100 mph fastball and a decent slider are what Lindstrom offers.

Bottom line though, Lindstrom has never finished a ML season as a closer, and Lyon has had mixed results in the role. Doors 3 (Alberto Arias), 4 (Jeff Fulchino), or 5 (Samuel Gervacio) may have to be opened by season’s end. This might not be a bad thing, however, as all five have their strong points and offer the Astros an enviable amount of depth at the back end of the bullpen.

2) In the last two weeks of 2009, J.R. Towles hit 2 homers and batted over .400.  Before that, he was a Morganna-sized bust.  Can he finally breakout in 2010?

Wow! A Morganna reference! I’m 24, so you’re lucky I caught the reference. Anyways, J.R. Towles has amassed a grand total of 234 major league at bats in his entire career. So, it’s pretty unfair to call him a bust. That being said, J.R. is an athletic catcher who is very capable of being a 10 HR/10 SB guy if given the necessary at bats. He’s shown the willingness to walk in the minors, and hopefully that skill translates if given the opportunity in Houston. Sadly (for Towles), scouts believe 2008 first round draft pick Jason Castro is almost ready for full time action, so Towles may have to show his stuff early in 2010 for either a back up slot with the Astros once Castro is called up or possibly for a job with another club.

3) Hunter Pence turns 27 this year and looks on the verge of a breakout that even Ed Wade can’t stop.  What kind of year can he put up?  35 homers, 15 steals?  30/10?  Hopefully something better than Pedro Feliz?

I’m going to hold off on the 35 HR prediction, but 25 HR, 15 steals and a better BB:K ratio than in 2009 could certainly be in order. Couple his offense with his stellar defense in right field, and Pence is a slightly below All Star level talent who the Astros are happy to have in the lineup.

4) Last year, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman seemed to begin their descent over the hill.  Can they slam on the brakes and be top tier hitters again in 2010?

While both players are in their mid-30s, and both hit for a good bit of power, their games are fairly distinct from one another. Lance is a more patient hitter who is more helpful than a bag of sand on defense. Carlos is an unmotivated, high contact, low K, professional hitter in the Matt Stairs mold. Lance should be able to be a productive hitter for as long as he wants to play (and if you read between the lines with Lance, that may not be past his current contract). Carlos’ skills don’t translate well into old age, so Astros fans should hope Lee is able to hold on for as long as possible…at least until an AL club in need of a DH gets greedy and takes on his contract.

5) Tommy Manzella sounds like he should be in culinary school and Jeff Keppinger is the answer to the question, “Who is Brett Myers giving a wedgie to?”  So what becomes of shortstop?  Can Manzella offer anything besides a delicious Chicken Parm?

Chef Manzella is set to prepare a feast for the city of Houston this summer:

As an appetizer, Manzella will offer up quick hands and feet paired with an accurate throwing arm.

For the main course, Chef has been working hard on honing his batting stroke and toughening up for the long haul of a 162 game season.

And for dessert (everybody’s favorite), Tommy accents a slightly older vintage of player at third base (Pedro Feliz), giving the Astros the sort of defense that will save runs left and right.

All for an affordable price of….league minimum.

Jeff Keppinger was a pleasant surprise in 2009, and should get plenty of at bats in 2010 at 2B, SS and 3B. If not striking out was a game….he..um…would be good at it.

Okay, so it’s not the best 2010 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2010 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting a player from every 12 players, according to my top 300 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  So it would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Lincecum in the first round and I was able to take Longoria and Howard, but since they’re both in the first 12, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Also, as we all know, once you get into the 100s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  For this exercise, I’m going to limit myself to a player just like in a snake draft, no matter what.  So if I choose Pujols, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then a player from somewhere in the next 12 picks.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench.  Anyway, here’s the best 2010 fantasy baseball team:

C:  Chris Iannetta (15)

1B: Albert Pujols (1)

2B: Brandon Phillips (4)

SS: Elvis Andrus (10)

3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)

MI: Alcides Escobar (16)

CI: Ian Stewart (9)

OF: Justin Upton (2)

OF: Adam Jones (5)

OF: Raul Ibanez (8)

OF: Corey Hart (13)

OF: Ryan Ludwick (18)

UT: Brandon Wood (24)

P: Josh Johnson (6)

P: Cliff Lee (7)

P: Matt Cain (12)

P: Jonathan Sanchez (17)

P: Gavin Floyd (21)

P: Mat Latos (23)

P: Francisco Cordero (11)

P: Octavio Dotel (14)

P: Bobby Jenks (19)

BENCH:

P: Brandon Lyon (20)

P: Scott Downs (22)

P: Matt Lindstrom (25)

So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.