Fantasy Baseball Advice

Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them.  Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks.  Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess!  I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before.  I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.”  Wha’ happened?  Did someone poison the bullpen water?  Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers?  There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.”  To recap this month in closing quickly:  Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop?  Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level.  Got all of that?  Yeah, I’m not sure I did either.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli)
8. J.J. Putz (-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw)
9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs)
10. Jose Valverde (-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers)
12. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen)
13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
14. Grant Balfour (+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15. Brett Myers (+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
16. Joe Nathan (+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

18. Sean Marshall (+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19. Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
20. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21. Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
22. Jonathan Broxton (+6) (Aaron Crow)
23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
24. Frank Francisco (-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez)
25. Alfredo Aceves (-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard)
26. Carlos Marmol (-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood)
27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica)
28. Scott Downs (-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins)
29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago (-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain)
30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

Since our last Closer Look, we’ve had some comings and goings.  One coming was Pestano, who last year said Eataly should give out free pizza toppings if you’re wearing Crocs.  With Chris Perez going down for 4 to 6 weeks with the ever-mysterious oblique injury, Pestano should see some saves into the beginning of the year.  Double negatives aside, I wouldn’t not draft Perez.  He should resume the closer job once he returns because the Indians are committed to him, in the same way Courtney Love should be committed.  Another coming was Brett Myers, who will take over the Astros closing job.  If you grab Myers at a draft, you’re gonna get beat up.  Not speaking metaphorically.  If you draft Myers, you should be fine for 25ish saves.  Another bit of closer news pertains to Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour.  The A’s are saying Fuentes and Balfour are both up for the closer job.  Balfour is the better option, but clubs don’t always go with the best option.  (Actually, the best option would be Faustino De Los Santos, but he’s not going to be the closer right out of the gate.)  I’d draft Fuentes and Balfour (and FDLS in very deep leagues, an acronym that sounds like a dyslexic branch of Latter-Day Saints).  Finally, Javy Guerra was announced the closer to start the season by Don Mattingly, who lost all common sense once he shaved his mustache, which is not a coincidence.  Guerra could be the closer for the whole season while having one of the best middle men behind him, kind of how Marmol used to work that role.  Or Guerra could blow three saves in April and Jansen will be the closer by April 20th.  I think there’s a 50/50 chance either scenario happens.  I’d draft both.  If Jansen goes to the bullpen, maybe the free time will allow Kenley an opportunity to think about designing with something other than polka dots and prove she deserved to be a Project Runway All-Star (hey, four girl readers, who loves you?).  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Drew Storen (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
4. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
5. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Jose Valverde (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
7. Brian Wilson (Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla)
8. J.J. Putz (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
9. Heath Bell (Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo, Mike Dunn)
10. Carlos Marmol (Kerry Wood, Jeff Samardzija)
11. Joakim Soria (Jonathon Broxton, Greg Holland)
12. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek)
13. Ryan Madson (Sean Marshall, Nick Masset)
14. Jason Motte (+1) (Eduardo Sanchez)
15. Huston Street (+1) (Luke Gregerson)
16. Andrew Bailey (+1) (Mark Melancon, Bobby Jenks)
17. Sergio Santos (+1) (Francisco Cordero)
18. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, LaTroy Hawkins)
19. Kyle Farnsworth (+1) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

20. Javy Guerra (-6) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Frank Francisco (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
22. Rafael Betancourt (Rex Brothers)
23. Matt Thornton (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed)
24. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
25. Brandon League (Shawn Kelley, Hong-Chih Kuo)
26. Jim Johnson (+1)(Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Brett Myers (+3) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett)
29. Grant Balfour/Brian Fuentes (Joey Devine, Faustino De Los Santos)
30. Vinnie Pestano (-4) (Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, Chief Wahoo)

We try to keep you ahead of the game here in The Bottom of the 9th, allowing you to make RP changes before most people in your leagues by examining rocky situations (whether thanks to injury or incumbent performance) and plotting a course of action. We’re still going to do that in a few paragraphs, but first, with teams near the 81-game mark of the season, let’s review the biggest surprises of 2011 thus far.

Joel Hanrahan was one of the last closers off the board in March, and because of that and his excellent strikeout numbers in 2010, he ended up on a lot of my teams, especially as he was named the team’s closer over Evan Meek pretty early in the drafting season. All he’s done at the (about) halfway point is sit atop the closer rankings with 22 saves, a 1.24 ERA and 0.94 WHIP without blowing a save opportunity. He’ll obviously be drafted much higher next year

Craig Kimbrel wasn’t even a lock to close, with fantasy owners having to choose sides between Kimbrel and Johnny Venters in many drafts and auctions. While Venters has been the better fantasy pitcher overall — can you believe he’s still No. 1 in Yahoo’s player rater among RPs? — Kimbrel has paid huge dividends on his draft spot. He current ranks as the fifth best closer in the game, with 20 saves and 58 strikeouts through 38 innings.

Finally, the biggest surprise may be the top of the relief charts in general. Toss out RP-eligible starters and the top 10 relievers in the game in order are Venters, Hanrahan, Francisco Cordero, Brian Wilson, Drew Storen, Kimbrel, J.J. Putz, Kyle Farnsworth, Fernando Salas and Adams. Ryan Madson ranks 11th. How many of those guys could you nail as top 10 relievers at the mid-point of the season? Wilson sure, Kimbrel and Putz maybe. You tell someone on March 31 that Cordero would be the third best reliever in fantasy through June and they’d call you Mrs. Cordero.

It just reinforces the old adage: don’t pay for saves. And if you do, pay a very small amount.

Quick Hits

Ryan Madson is currently on the shelf, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to run out and grab more Phillie relievers in hopes of finding some saves. He should only miss a few more days, and there isn’t even a set interim closer to grab, though Antonio Bastardo is pitching so well (like, almost Venters-level well) that one could argue he should be owned in more leagues anyway. Your top-five non-closing RPs currently include Venters, Adams, David Pauley, Bastardo and Tyler Clippard.

Brandon Lyon is out for the season (as I’m sure you’ve heard), meaning we can cash in our “10 Saves Under (-105)” ticket at any time. It also means the until recently unknown Mark Melancon is locked into his closing job for the year, making him a top-20 closer and making the 50 percent of fantasy leagues in which he’s available look pretty dumb. I’d easily dump Dodgers and Blue Jays to add him, as well as any elite non-save guys outside of Venters.

Joe Nathan is back from the DL — if you were a Nathan owner earlier in the season, you’re probably saying, “So what?” However, he looked much better in his previous rehab assignment than he did at any other point this year, leading one to believe he may finally be recovered from Tommy John surgery. Matt Capps has a 0.87 WHIP and a 20:2 K:BB ratio, so one could argue his closing gig is safe. However, Matt Capps has a 4.06 ERA and five blown saves in 16 chances, so one could argue he’s on the way out the door. At any rate, Nathan will need at least a few weeks of great pitching before the Twins harbor any thoughts of a switch. If you have a free roster spot and want some potential post-All Star Break saves, Nathan is a good add.

The Dodgers have managed just two saves this month going into Sunday’s action. Jonathan Broxton should be back with the team by this time next week, and while he won’t be thrown back into the fire immediately, he should have his closing gig back by the All-Star Break. I’d think long and hard about trying to flip Capps to the Broxton owner in your league.

In the ever-revolving Toronto closer situation, Frank Francisco has the team’s last three saves, making him the Blue Jays Closer I Guess At Least For Right Now of the Week. Frank Frank hasn’t allowed an earned run since June 6, bringing his ERA down to 4.50. He has a good K rate (26 Ks in 22 innings), but I still don’t trust him. Beggars can’t be choosers though, so if you’re desperate for saves, grab the 48 percent owned player.