Fantasy Baseball Advice

In September, Nick Markakis hit a wall like Super Dave Osbourne.  For the month, he’s currently ranked behind Grady Sizemore (who hasn’t played since September 3rd), Cory Sullivan and Justin Maxwell for value amongst outfielders.  If those names don’t sound familiar to you, they shouldn’t.  They suck.  Hold up, Albright.  You’re telling people to grab Edwin Encarnacion and drop Markakis? Yes, it’s a weird time of the year.  But if you hold onto guys for name value, you’re going to lose, especially in H2H leagues.  The flame has gone out on Sparkakis and it’s time to move on in one year leagues.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Edwin Encarnacion – Need a guy that won’t run out a pop up?  Looking to fill your team with lollygaggers?  No need to look further!  For a limited time only, Encarnacion is batting third and hitting .400 over the last week.

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink – Octatt Thornbrink, or some combination there within will get Sox saves.

Hank Blalock – Scroll down to morning post.  Go ahead, move your mouse.

Martin Prado – Ah… What to say?  Seriously, what?  He’s been hot recently (over .500 in the last week).  You need more?

Jody Gerut – Batting .500 over the last week with 3 homers.  His name doesn’t seem so girly now does it?  Okay, but not as girly as Suzy.

Every Padres Pitcher – They’re home for the final week.  Stock up!

Brian Duensing – Next week, he gets the Tigers and probably (teams’ final pitching schedules are iffy) the Royals.  He has an under 1 ERA vs. the Tigers in two games and the Royals’ bats have chlamydia.

Wade Davis – Gets the Orioles and the Yankees in the final game of the season.  He doesn’t come without risk, but crossing the street comes with risk, especially in New Delhi.

Rafael Furcal - About time.

Ronnie Belliard – Hitting for average, light power and speed and playing over Orlando Hudson.  Actually, Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson should just start their own team.  The Dirty Hudsons.  They can play in Weehawken overlooking the grand Hudson River.  Instead of The Splash Zone, they can have The Rash Zone.

SELL

Ian Kinsler – Yay, he played more than 120 games.  Not well, unfortunately.  In September, he ran out of gas like OPEC in 2078. (Figures courtesy of Al Gore.)

David Wright – You’d think I didn’t like the Mets the way I’m pushing people to lose Beltran and Wright.  Not true.  Just this year.  Now to go along with Wright’s warning track power, he’s saying he’s scared coming to the plate because of Post-Plunking on the Head Syndrome.  Hopefully, he can get over this by next year, but for the final week I’d look elsewhere if there’s other options.

Chipper Jones – Seriously, drop him.

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched Their Last Game – Even if you’re simply putting in a middle reliever.  It’s do or die time, fellas (and two girl readers).  I’d wish you good luck, but luck’s for beginners and the leprechauns, use your skills!

Hank Blalock was called Mr. September by his manager.  I think he meant it as a compliment.  Last year, he hit eight homers in 95 ABs in September.  This year, batting .360.  In the last seven games, it’s up to .400 with 2 homers.  Luckily, he’s also playing every game, because he’s the only one hitting for the Rangers, which means he’ll continue to play.  If you’re currently rocking an underperforming corner guy try out Blalock.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!  (BTW, I have a theory why Blalock hits well in September.  The Texas summer tires the Rangers hitters out.  By September, they’re done, except for Blalock because he never plays a full season.  So this theory would make even more sense if Blalock’s other good month is April.  Yup, checks out.  In the last three years, April’s his 2nd best month.  Check.  Mate.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Guitar Arroyo continues to roll in the 2nd half.  Hopefully, I don’t have to field too many questions in March from people asking if they should draft Arroyo in 2010.  You should not.  I’m all for grabbing him next July though.

Willy Taveras – 2-for-4 as he led off.  This start came at the expense of Drew Stubbs.  Oh, Dusty, you and your decisions.  I think Stubbs will continue to get the majority of the starts.

Lastings Milledge – HR yesterday.  Hitting .440 over the last week with two steals, as well.  Will he be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell?  Maybe, depends what Late Afternoon Grey puts on the menu.

Vernon Wells – HR yesterday.  Wow, so now we’ve had Rios, Hawpe, Dye and Wells homer on consecutive days.  Tomorrow, David Wright!

Vicente Padilla – 5 IP, 8 baserunners, 4 ER.  Well, he left in line for the victory.  That’s about all I can say nice about him.  He’s terrible.  And his resemblance to this guy is scary.

Rafael Furcal – HR yesterday.  He was the lead in yesterday’s roundup, so I’m going to be brief.  He’s going to end this season well (obviously) then he’s going to tear it up in the playoffs leading to him being overrated once again next year.  Thank you, Magic Eight Ball.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 26th homer yesterday to go along with his 34 steals.  A guy with 30/30/.300 ability who hasn’t even hit his prime yet?  Yeah, I think he’s going to be a top 10 ranked guy for me next year.

Ryan Braun – 0-for-5 yesterday.  Speaking of top ten, Braun’s still there, but he definitely hasn’t ended the season well.

Luke Gregerson – He got a rare 1 2/3 IP inning save yesterday.  I don’t think it means anything other than Bell’s been overworked lately.

Franklin Morales – Came into yesterday’s game in the 7th inning.  That just about does it for his value.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  He also has 18 steals and a .290 average.  Yeah, he’s going to be above Rollins in the rankings next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – Sat out yesterday with a hamstring issue.  Guy who relies on his legs with a hamstring issue during the final ten days of the season is not someone you need to wait around for in one year leagues.  I know, it sucks.  I like him too.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Who doesn’t love NL West pitchers?  Who?  Show yourself!

Derrek Lee – Left the game in the ninth after his first attempt and steal of a base yesterday.  He didn’t come out of the game immediately, so hopefully it’s nothing major.  Or nothing, Major.  If that’s your rank.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his 66th base yesterday.  Member a few years ago how excited people got about Crawford and would draft him in the 2nd round?  Well, Ellsbury is doing what Crawford used to do.  Steals don’t have a face, but if they did, I think they’d look a lot like Ellsbury.  Also, while I’m on the subject, who remembers in May of this year when Buster Olney said Crawford could steal 100?  Now, Olney’s forgotten more baseball than I’d ever know, but, seriously, when will people stop hyperbolizing what someone does through a month of baseball?  Guess it sells people on the ESPN Hindsighter.  Wow, this was a huge tangent.  Sorry.

Adam Kennedy – 3-for-5 with his 20th steal.  He’s batting .290 on the year with 11 HRs.  Member during your draft you couldn’t decide when to draft Alexei so you took him in the fifth round?  You would’ve been better off with Kennedy.  Who knew?

Eric Patterson – 6 for his last 10 with a steal and a homer.  He’s playing every day and could rack up steals quickly.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-5, and a steal.  See Eric Patterson, or 1/8 of an inch above.

David Aardsma – Returned from an injury to get a save.  What injury, you ask.  It turns out Aardsma was out for a few days with back stiffness.  In one of the more bizarre ways a player has been injured, his back stiffened while he was reading a book.  A relief pitcher hasn’t been hurt this bad from a book since Jose Mesa read Omar Vizquel’s tell-all book.

Dexter Fowler had a .394 OBP in almost 1300 minor league at-bats.  In his first big league season, he has a .371 OBP (through whenever I wrote this).  I’m focusing on OBP  because you’d like to have your speedsters on base… *cough* Taveras *cough*   Is Fowler capable of 50+ steals?  I suppose, but I wouldn’t count on that.  No Sir Ree Bob.  (BTW, I like the Urban Dictionary examples for No Sir Ree Bob.  I don’t remember that conversation happening between the Iraqi Information Minister and George W. Bush, but I don’t pay too much attention to politics.)  I’d optimistically predict 35+ steals, 10+ homers and a .285 average.  Shane Victorino called, he wants his stats back, but Andrew McCutchen picked up the phone to say Dexter was in the shower.  I have no idea what’s going on there.  Now, Victorino is a top twenty outfielder, so that’s Fowler’s upside.  For the price you can probably keep Dexter, it makes him well worth the risk.  I’m not saying keep him over Miguel Cabrera.  Please, we’re talking within reason.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Kendry Morales – This year he’s been nearly as valuable as Mark Teixeira.  Zoinks!

Eric Young Jr. – We started this sucker with a Rockie and, Harang nabbit, we’re gonna finish it with one. So Junior’s not really getting any playing time right now, but this isn’t about this year, is it? Rhetorical! 2010 should be Young’s year to shine and when he shines he’ll be doing it with 40+ steals. For a guy that you can probably keep on the super cheap in deep leagues, that’s a lovely thing. Not a Lovey thing, that’s J.P. Howell’s Mom.

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

For a quick summary of each minor leagues leader boards, Rotoworld’s (Circling the Bases Blog) Matthew Pouliot complied the AAA OPS leaders, AAA ERA leaders, and Eastern League OPS and ERA leaders(AA). Not all of the names you’ll recognize, some you will because I wrote about them (Carlos Santana), others you will because they are quad-A players (Chris Shelton, John Bowker), and many notable players are not on the lists because they didn’t amass enough innings or at-bats to qualify (Tommy Hanson, Madison Bumgarner). Also, over at FanGraphs’ Mark Hulet wrote about our favorite Cuban Dayan Viciedo, who I mentioned over three months ago. Hopefully you enjoys these links, otherwise I just feel like a tool for throwing them at you.

Ethan Martin | SP/RP | Los Angeles Dodgers | DOB: 6/6/89 (20) | 6-2 | 195 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | LAD #3 prospect according to Baseball America (2009)
Has no Cube ratings

Two Dodger pitchers in two weeks? Yes, I am sorry, but they have some intriguing prospects. Martin was a high school standout as a third baseman and only in his senior year did he start to pitch. He was considered a second round third baseman for the 2008 draft as a high schooler. However, for his senior year at high school, he was needed to pitch and during a game in which he pitched against some tough opponents in Georgia (Eric Hosmer, if I recall correctly) and dominated them. He went on to win the Baseball America High School Player of the Year award in 2008 and was also voted Georgia State’s Player of the Year as well. As a high school pitcher he was 11-1, had a .99 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 79 innings (disclaimer – this doesn’t include the state championship game). He didn’t pitch in the minors in 2008 because he tore his meniscus in his right knee in a post-draft workout. The Dodgers decided they wanted him pitching and not hitting. Why you may ask? Due to the fact that he has three above average pitches. His fastball runs anywhere from 91 to 96 mph, usually sitting between 92 and 94 mph; a (“plus”) tight curve that he throws from 79 to 82 mph; and a splitter. I would say that those are pretty good reasons. 2009 was his only professional year pitching and here is how he did:

2009 (A) 10.8 K/9 | 5.5 BB/9 | 100 IP | .36 HR/9 | 3.87 ERA | 1.46 WHIP | 19/27 GS/G

Other than his blinding amount of walks, those numbers aren’t too shabby. However, it is important to note that he is still a very raw pitcher (much like is). He doesn’t have the years of pitching to back up his enormous amounts of talent. He had 13 wild pitches and hit 10 batters, and walked way too many hitters to be highly effective. The strikeout rate is fabulous, he kept the ball in the park and his FIP is 3.45 while he left 67 percent of runners on base. Beyond the walk rate, the rest of his peripherals are very promising. If he can even remove a third of those walks, he could be on the radar of many fantasy players by late 2010 and definitely in 2011. He is still very young, but don’t forget this name.

Andrew Lambo | OF | Los Angeles Dodgers | DOB: 8/11/88 (21) | 6-3 | 190 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left | LAD #1 prospect according to Baseball America (2009)
Cube Ratings: Power (87) | Speed (16) | Contact (31) | Patience (51)

Yet another Dodger, but at least one with a bit more flair. Yes, flair and controversy. Many sites and other non-Baseball America sources don’t rank Lambo quite so high. Baseball Intellect ranked him the Dodgers fourth best prospect calling him, “average at best,” and question his declining patience among other notable aspects of his game. However, you look at him, and he still has tons of talent. Coming out of high school, his maturity was questioned because he had to transfer to a school 35 miles from his house due to truancy and reefer (it’s a gateway drug!). Today, most say that he has out grown his childhood and is much more mature.

Lambo, other than having an amazing last name, possesses tremendous amounts of raw power (not Ryan Howard power) and bat speed. Matter of fact, that is truly his most promising talent. Baseball America says that he runs well below average and is an average fielder at best with a quick first step to make up for his sluggish speed. He did earn a Midwest (A-level) League All-Star appearance in 2008 and in 2007 he earned the Dodgers’ Guy Willmen Award as the best first year player. Baseball America also said that if he did well at AA, he’d be up a the end of the 2010 season. Here are his numbers before I say anything more:

2007 (R) .343/.440/.482 | 181 AB | 15/5/.174 (2B/HR/ISO) | 15.6 K% | 14.4 BB% | .399 BABIP
2008 (totals) .295/.351/.482 | 508 AB | 35/18 (2B/HR) | .353 BABIP
08 (A) .288/.346/.462 | 475 AB | 33/15/.174 (2B/HR/ISO) | 23.3 K% | 8 BB% | .349 BABIP
08 (AA) .389/.421/.407 | 36 AB | 2/3/.361 (2B/HR/ISO) | 25 K% | 5.3 BB% | .458 BABIP
2009 (AA) .256/.311/.407 | 492 AB | 39/11/.150 (2B/HR/ISO) | 19.3 K% | 7.3 BB% | .298 BABIP
Career Vs LHP .317/.372/.523 | 388 AB
Career Vs RHP .270/.333/.422 | 793 AB

I don’t expect to see him up near the end of next season. A few things of significance to note. The first being the high BABIP until this year; secondly the trend of walks; and lastly, the gap power and ISO trend. Lambo’s ISO at Rookie and A ball are identical and his ISO at AA is pretty close too. However, since Rookie ball, he has seen his walk rate cut in half, his strikeouts increase slightly and, finally, a season in which his BABIP isn’t inflating his overall numbers. It will be interesting to see what next year brings and if he can claim that the 2009 is his outlier. On a couple of positive notes, he is hitting a lot of doubles and may see those turn into home runs. He also doesn’t strikeout like Mark Reynolds.

At only 21, the homer power isn’t quite there, his patience has deteriorated, and many of his early minor league numbers are highly inflated due to his BABIP. Not to be negative on his upside, but James Loney was suppose to turn his doubles into home runs too and he never did. Other than Ethier and Kemp, I cannot recall their last top power hitting prospect to actually do what they were drafted for. With that said, Lambo could be the next Loney or Ethier. He could continue to hit doubles with marginal power (Loney) or eventually hit like Ethier. Keep in mind that Ethier didn’t get his ISO up and over over .200 until last year at age 26 (and hit 20 HR) and this year he has hit 31 HR. I would expect to see Lambo start at AA again next year as he struggled quite a bit, and a mid-season promotion to AAA with a September call up.