Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jake Peavy limped away into the sunset with a walking cast and a .98 difference between his ERA and his FIP, which means his ERA could’ve been below a 3 when he went down.  Pardon me as I cry into a bowl of beer-battered onion rings.  Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and a frozen Ted Williams are standing on a cloud somewhere mocking us.  Baseball gods, why didn’t you take Joe Blanton?  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs.  If your guy is on the list, there’s hope.  Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you! (FYI, I did this on Sunday, so the numbers may be slightly off, but the gist remains.  Oh, and loved loved loved what Merchant Ivory did with The Gist Remains.)

Jorge de la Rosa – 1.89.  Member what I said two sentences ago about trading for these guys?  Yeah, ignore that for this guy.  He’s a very risky starter.  Caveat Jorge.

Carl Pavano – 1.63.  Has a 5.73 ERA and a 4.10 FIP.  Hmm… Are these buy lows?  Or just “Continue to Ignores?”  Good question, Razzball reader.  I’m ignoring Pavano.

Andy Sonnanstine – 1.25.  These FIP lists never work out the way I want them too.  I’m not going after Sonnanstine either.

Francisco Liriano – 1.09.  How does that quote go?  Best intentions is a dish best served without any intentions?  Is that it?  Yeah, Liriano’s sitting on a 4.82 FIP.  So he’s not as bad as he’s been, but he’s still not good.

Justin Verlander – 1.05.  Wow, he has a 3.39 ERA and a 2.34 FIP, while striking out almost 11 batters per nine.  I know, Greinke, Greinke, Greinke… but Verlander could win the Cy Young this year.  Believe it or not, I’m walking on air…

Jon Lester – .95.  Over 10 K/9 and under 3 BB/9.  Then throw in a team that will give him run support.  Lester!

Scott Baker – .92. There were some trying times early on for Baker’s owners, but his June has been terrific.  He’s still an injury risk, but I’d own him at this point.

Joel Pineiro – .86.  Ignoreio.

Gavin Floyd – .85. Has a 3.80 FIP, which makes him someone that’s worth being on your team rather than waivers.

Javier Vazquez – .75.  Could be below a 3 ERA right now… If only Cox could pull him from the game in, say, the 6th then pitch him again in the 7th.

Okay, now picture you’re a Mets fan who was in a coma for three months and you just looked at the starting lineup.  You’d be like, “Jeremy who?  Cora what?  Tatis huh?  Why are the Mets playing a split squad game in June?”  Um, yeah.  Listen, Comatose Mets fan, you might want to sit down.  Carlos Beltran hit the DL yesterday with a sore knee.  The Mets are saying Beltran should be back in two weeks.  Yeah, and Reyes will be back three weeks ago.  At this point, you really can’t do anything but wait for Beltran to return.  Hopefully, there’s some decent outfielders on waivers for you to grab in the interim.  I grabbed David Murphy and Jonny “Hey, Khalil give me back my H” Gomes.  Gomes should be the Reds DH for interleague so he should get starts for a week, then I’ll need to look elsewhere.  Jake Fox is a decent play in interleague, as well.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ervin Santana – Went to the Disgraceful List.  No way!  Come on!  Really?  Shocker!

Scott Kazmir – Solid rehab outing where he didn’t walk anyone.  Might need one or two more rehab starts then should be back.

Alex Gonzalez – Had bone chips removed yesterday and will be out for a month.  Hopefully the doctor had more success in removing those chips than Gonzalez has had hitting baseballs.

Grady Sizemore – Says he’ll be ready to return today.  Better get out your “I Heart Grady,” t-shirt.

Yunel Escobar – Out with a strained hip flexor.  This could totally cramp his shuffleboard game.  Yunel dealt with this earlier in the year and it sidelined him for a week, so he might miss some time.

Josh Outman – Has elbow tightness and is, um, out, man.

Trevor Cahill – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Turned in a good outing in what was a good matchup.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners.  So far he’s had two games all year that were terrible.  Sometimes safe works.

Matt Palmer – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Palmer?  I hardly knew her!  Oofa!  So far I’ve said about Palmer, “I wouldn’t touch him in 12 team leagues,” “Before you get crazy with yourself, he’s a thirty-year-old rookie and he’s not Dennis Quaid,” and “Who’s Matt Palmer?  A soap opera actor?” And that’s me quoting me!  So you kinda get the sense of what I’m thinking about Palmer going forward.

Ryan Ludwick – Second homer in the last four games.  Your time to buy low on him may be running out.

Daniel Murphy – HR yesterday.  Batting around .350 for the last week.  Let’s not be delusional that he’s going to completely fill-in for Beltran on your fantasy team, but maybe he can give you one hot week then find someone else next week.  Pick and troll.

Rafael Soriano – Got the save yesterday with Gonzalez taking care of lefties in the 8th.  Soriano has 45 Ks in 32 2/3 IP, .98 WHIP and a 1.38 ERA.  Um, that’s pretty good.

Albert Pujols – Reports say he called his shot on Sunday.  Would that be an HGH shot?

Joey Votto – Set to return on Tuesday, saying he felt batty, but in a good way.

There’s a few people who are going to understand what FIP is.  The people who scored a 2400 on the SATs.  Or 1600 if you’re old school, literally.  The people who use a Bunsen Burner to light their pipe.  The people who know what is in a Twinkie.  You know, real smart people.  Me?  I just know that Twinkies are delicious.  Luckily, there’s people out there that figure out these highfalutin numbers like FIP and give ‘em to us plain and simple.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Kevin Millwood – -2.06 difference.  Surprise, surprise or no surprise, no surprise.  Either way, Millwood has been getting lucky on balls in play, leaving a ton of guys on base that should be scoring and, before yesterday, hadn’t been striking out anyone.  The summer months in Arlington + Millwood = Uh-oh.

Matt Cain – -1.72.  Seems like this guy’s been a sell high guy since his first start of the season.  Here’s the thing, stranding almost 90% of baserunners is SS Minnow-type numbers.  Hold him, and you may end up looking like Gilligan.

John Lannan – -1.71.  Few strikeouts, plenty of walks, Nats pitcher, lucky on balls in play… I think you’ve heard enough.

Johnny Cueto – -1.54. He’s cut his walks this year, which is a good sign, and his FIP is only 4.10 so that’s not terrible.  He’s young and will probably tire as the season goes on so he’s a decent sell candidate, but I wouldn’t move him for an Intellivision, unless old school video games are your thing.

Trevor Cahill – -1.18.  He’s in a similar boat as Lannan.  No Ks, plenty of walks, a team that doesn’t score many…  Blech.

Rick Porcello – -1.14.  He may have a correction in July and August, then, because of his age, he’ll probably get shutdown towards the end of August.  Or he’ll have starts skipped.

Zach Duke – -1.03. His FIP is only 4.21.  You’ll take that mark on the year from Duke and like it.

Joe Saunders – -1.02.  I’ve been saying not to buy this guy since the preseason, so I don’t need to say more, right?

Ted Lilly – -1.02, which is a 4.06 and he’s about a 4 ERA pitcher so that’s not surprising. With his Ks, he’s well worth owning.

Yovani Gallardo – -1.01.  It bummed me out to see him on this list.  He’s pitching closer to a 4 than a 3 ERA.  Luckily, he’s K’ing over 9 batters per nine.  I’d put that in my pipe and light it with my Bunsen Burner any day of the week.

CC Sabathia left his start with biceps tightness.  Or is it bicep?  Hmm…  Either way, it’s not great to hear about an arm issue with your fantasy ace.  Right now they’re saying no tests are even necessary.  Give me two hundred CCs of a White Russian and I’m asking this, you pay one hundred trillion dollars for a player and then you don’t send him for tests when he hurts his bicep(s)?  Are they joking?  Seriously, is this Candid Camera?  I thought I saw my Adam Lambert poster’s eyes move.  Is there a camera behind there?  Send me a signal, throw me a line.  Hopefully, tests aren’t necessary because it’s so obviously not a problem.  They don’t need to administer tests for how Sabathia feels about his new home park, The Jetstream.  To the left, to the left… Now, up, baby, up… He has a 3.99 ERA at home and 3.35 away.  His 6 K/9 is more troubling.  That would be the lowest mark of his career.  Even last year in April when he was struggling, he was K’ing more than one batter per inning.  Hopefully in the 2nd half of the year he can rearrange the girth and makes things right.  (Fun with anagrams!)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Disgraceful List just got one more as the Sawx made room for Smoltz.  Neither funny nor that insightful, but you’d think there would be some kind of rule by the MLB that teams can’t just DL someone because they’re ineffective.

Ryan Howard – In and out of the hospital with a fever.  Phillies doctors said he’d be fine, he just ate a quart of ice cream too fast and his body temperature was trying to overcompensate.

Carlos Beltran – Going for an MRI on Monday for his knee even though he complained days ago and played on Sunday.  Um, okay.  Supposedly he only has pain when he decelerates abruptly.  Here’s an idea, slide!

Endy Chavez – Out for the season so Transylvania’s favorite son, Wladimir Balentien, should get the starts.  Now the Mariners just need all of their major league and minor league catchers to hurt themselves so they have to play Jeff Clement.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday.  Has 10 homer power, but right now he’s scorching hot, batting over .400 for the last week.  He’s worth a flier over the schmohawk behind door number 3.  For what it’s worth, last week I dropped Kennedy for McGehee in one league.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 3 Runs.  According to ESPN, Coghlan’s only owned in 3.1% of leagues.  Actually, I kinda understand that.  In June, he has 1 homer and 3 steals.  Excuse me while I burp.

Don Kelly – 2-for-4 and batting .417 since his callup.  He’s a minor league journeyman who has some light speed.  Not speed of light.  Totally different thing.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks.  It’s like 2008 never happened.  But, you know what?  I remember it.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  Note from the author (me).  This was sent in by a longtime reader, Tarasco’s Secret Stash, “Ortiz’s swing this year has been interesting to watch evolve lately, and it’s finally clicking. Dave Magadan first tried the Drew back-shoulder tap as his first timing correction, but that didn’t really seem to get him out of his funk. Papi was rocking that timing mechanism for a couple weeks in May, until they started trying his current approach, which is much quieter and more vertical. He’s setting his hands smoothly now, Hideki Matsui style, instead of waggling the bat or cocking his wrists, and he’s instead leaving the hands up higher and the wrists more loaded. That’s letting him dip slightly to load his weight back while keeping the wrists much more steady, and it’s keeping his swing plane on the ball better. His hip rotation is still strong, which is the best sign for him going forward. He’s able to turn through balls as well as years past, and he seems to have rediscovered his bat path over the last couple weeks. He’s drilling the ball to left center at Fenway of late.”

Dallas Braden – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid fill-in for this week without Peavy.  I’m sticking for now and going with him in Oakland vs. the Rox in his next start.  If I were feeling particularly lucky, I’d roll the dice with Cahill (vs. SF, COL) or Garrett Olson (vs. Padres, LAD) this week.  I’m not feeling lucky, but some of youse may be.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  The Wandwagon rolls again.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Nice start vs. the Nats.  I’d take a flier on him for a fifth to sixth fantasy starter.

Lyle Overbay – Hit his 9th homer yesterday with 5 RBIs.  You’re showing Derrek Lee and the dealer’s showing Lyle Overbay.  That’s a push.

Khalil Greene – Two games, two homers.  Now that he has his emotional baggage safely stored in his overhead compartment, he’s mollywopping the ball.  Worth a flier for cheap power at your MI spot.

Gil Meche – 3 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  It was the Cards, man.  The Cards.  Pitch around Pujols (who had 6 RBIs in this game).  Pitch. Around. Him.  Come on!

Michael Cuddyer – HR yesterday.  Hitting .444 over his last week with 2 homers, which is also known as Joe Mauer every week.

Geovany Soto – HR yesterday.  Clearly he’s found his power stroke with 3 homers this month, but he’s still batting .238 in June and only has 6 RBIs all month.

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Got the Win after 6 starts when he could’ve easily been victorious.  I’m still not endorsing him past matchups and his next matchup’s kinda eh.

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Finally listened to Nolan Ryan as he emphasized the importance of the K.

Chris Davis – Over the weekend, Davis became the fastest man ever to 100 Ks.  Maybe Nolan Ryan should be careful about to who he’s emphasizing the importance of the K.

Troy Tulowitzki – 3-for-3.  His average has been on the rise all monthowitzki.

Matt Holliday – 0-for-4, batting .269 on the year with 8 homers.  Where’s that blogger/guy/doode who in the preseason said Holliday just needed to get familiar with Oakland then it would all start clicking?  Is he familiar yet?

Jeremy Accardo – Left yesterday’s game after tweaking something on his right side.  Eddie Vedder says, “Jeremy’s broken…”

Right now betting on Jimmy Rollins to turn it around seems like a Horn Bet.  Unless Ben Zobrist is rolling the dice.  Rollins is too old, he’s too tired and he’s too… Wait, he’s not blind.  Though his average might make you think he could use some of Ortiz’s eyedrops.  His line on the year is 40/6/27/.225/10.  I just popped a zit onto a mirror and it spelled out, “Blech.”  Rollins’s K rate, ground balls and fly balls are about where they should be.  But, and it’s a J. Lo-sized but, his BABIP is sitting at .227.  That’s way below his career rate.  He’s been caught stealing five times which is a bit disconcerting, but he had 47 steals last year.  You telling me he lost that much of a step at 30-years-old?  Grey doesn’t think so, friend.  His average will pick itself up, his steals will come around and he has 15 homer power.  I don’t buy that he’s suddenly done, which is to say I do Buy him.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in Fantasy Baseball:

BUY

B.J. Frasordo – Grey unplugged, “This is for Cito Gaston.  Frasordo, why don’t you come to your senses?  You don’t let guys hit for the fences…“  Frasor, Ryan then Accardo is the way I’d grab them.  I would not own more than one, unless you’re really hurting for saves.  Get off the bullpen benches, open the gate…  You better let somebody close for you, before it’s too late…

Nate Schierholtz – For full disclosure, I secretly want him to fail so I don’t have to keep spelling his last name.  He’s worth grabbing in NL-Only leagues for some potential, but power doesn’t translate well to San Fran, except for the guys on ‘roids.

John Mayberry – While Raul Ibanez is out, Mayberry will get the majority of the starts.  He’s an all or nothing guy with some holes in his swing.  If you need some pop, give Mayberry a week and soon you’ll be whistling and fishing with Andy Taylor for a new outfielder.

Kyle Blanks – Now Chubb, stick em.  Kyle Blanks, was called up today and commenter, Corey, already gave him the nickname, The Pillsbury Fro Boy.  Ever wonder what Prince Fielder would look like playing outfield?  Check out the Padres.

David Murphy – He’s pretty much useless against lefties, but if you have the luxury of starting him only against righties, he has some decent value in deep leagues.  He’s not going to win you any leagues, but he could fill-in for a hurt outfielder.

Carlos Gomez – SAGNOF!

Casey McGehee – If the Brewers are batting him leadoff, he’s worth a flier in leagues 12 team or deeper to see how long he can stay hot.  Though his minor league numbers are pretty yawnstipating.

Brett Cecil – Worth grabbing just for his Saturday start vs. the Nats.  After that, we’ll need to see if and when he’ll start again.

Matt Downs – The Aints shipped Burriss off to the minors and gave the 2nd base job to Matt Downs.  Shame on you, Matt Downs, for having two T’s in your first name.  Don’t you know one T is all the rage?  This isn’t a Buy as much as a “Wait and See.”  Maybe Downs gets hot for a week or so, but he’s probably in over his head like Michael J. Fox in The Secret of My Success.  If Downs gets/has 2nd base eligibility in your NL-Only league, you can take a look, but I’d expect him to go back to the mailroom rather than sleep with Sabean’s wife and successfully run the Giants front office.

SELL

Brad Hawpe – His homers are down so far.  There’s a good chance he gets traded.  And if anyone thinks he’s going to hit .340 on the year, I have a can’t miss way to make millions from the comfort of your sofa for $19.95.  It will literally change your life!  Now don’t sell Hawpe for a used Hypercolor t-shirt, but I’d explore potential trades.

Nick Blackburn – Mr. Blackburn has a 6-2 record, a 3.09 ERA and a popular list of celebrity fashion don’ts, so why doesn’t anyone own him?  Cause he makes Aaron Cook seem like a strikeout pitcher.  He’s now under a 4 K/9.  That’s pretty terrible.  If you own him, you’re playing with fire, matchstick man.  So when I say Sell here, I’m more saying hold and proceed with caution.

Andrew McCutchen – Your window to trade The Dread Pirate could close at any time.  Ask someone who fielded offers on Bonifacio in the first week of the season.  Though ignore advice to sell him in keeper leagues.

Magglio Ordonez – When an old school manager tells an old player that they’re going to sit, the good ship lollipop is done sucked dry.

Nick Johnson – Averaging 2 homers a month.  Unfortunately, the season is not 20 months long.

Adam Kennedy – His June has been one big grassy knoll.

Jeff Francoeur – After last year’s travesty, you gave him another go and he gave you 28/4/30/.251/4 through two and a half months.  Might be time to say this is as good as it baguettes with Frenchy.