Fantasy Baseball Advice

As some of you know, we developed our own Player Rater methodology called Point Shares about a year ago. Since then, it’s been one big poontrain….zooming past Statgeek Station. Perhaps it’s because my hat and eyewear aren’t goofy enough?

Anyway, we’ve done some informal comparisons in the past w/ ESPN but – after having a prolonged, dorktastic debate – I decided to take it one step further.  I created a test where I pitted our Point Shares against two other player raters:  ESPN and RotoTimes.

The test went like this:  Create 10 random 10 team leagues and calculate the standings using the real stats.  Then do the same using the rating points for each of the services (so if you add up the ESPN HR player rater points for each team, the one with the most points gets a 10 in HR).  The team point totals calculated by the player raters is compared to the point totals from using the real stats and we added up all the differences (so if the real points total was 70 and the player rater projected 68, it’s worth 2 points).  The lower the point total the better.

Before we go into the results, it’s worth noting that this test puts our Point Shares at a disadvantage.  Why?  Our methodology factors in position and projected team standings so that you can use it to directly estimate the impact of a trade or draft pick.  We adjust our ratings by crediting points against the average found at the player’s position instead of the average hitter.  All stats equal, we know that a catcher will be much more valuable than a 1st baseman (why else would people draft Russ Martin and V-Mart in the 3rd round last year?).  Geovany Soto and Justin Morneau both hit 23 HRs.  While RotoTimes and ESPN ignore position and credit each with the same number of points, we have a 0.5 difference.  This is saying that – assuming you fill the rest of the rosters up with average players – owning Soto will give you a 0.5 advantage in HR points vs. owning Morneau in a 10-team league.

But a test where you just add up rosters takes this out of the equation.  You could conceivably be perfect just by creating a ‘rating point’ completely proportional to the real total.  So 20 vs. 30 HRs could be worth .2 and .3 points or 2 and 3 points, etc.  Will those numbers help determine the value of 20 vs. 30 HRs?  Not really.

Okay, with that said, the results of the test are as follows (if you want to see the spreadsheet, click here – warning: it’s messy).  Out of 100 teams, the total points off by the Player Raters was:

RotoTimes – 112
Razzball Point Shares – 143
ESPN – 152

Our Point Shares were the most accurate for 3 of the 10 leagues while RotoTimes claimed at least a share of 1st in the other 7 (ESPN tied them 3 times).

At a category level, I performed correlation tests between the ‘real’ standings and those of the player raters.  100% would be perfect.

As you can see, Point Shares held up pretty well to ESPN and RotoTimes despite taking on the extra burden of factoring in position and tying it to expected point gains/losses in the standings.  The test did shine light on some improvements we can make on pitcher counting stats (W, SV, K) – note the higher correlation we have on ERA/WHIP because we can directly tie it to IP.

Final summary:

1) RotoTimes is the most accurate of the three.  Combined with the facts that you can both customize the rankings based on league size, categories, roster size, etc. and they provide $ estimates, we’d say this is the best pure ranking tool.

2) Point Shares have proven to be in the same league as these other player raters.  Given the extra utility of Point Shares because it directly estimates the impact on team points of player moves, we’d say our Point Shares are the most useful of the three.

3) ESPN, while not the ‘testwide leader’, did pretty well – especially in hitting stats.  Their biggest pure weakness is ERA/WHIP as it would appear that they don’t factor in IP like Razzball (and, we assume, RotoTimes).  But we’d say their biggest total weakness is that their player points mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.  They are arbitrary numbers that could be used to rank players but not to estimate their value in the standings or worth at the draft table.  They do a good job, though, at keeping it updated throughout the year…

I took part in my second mock draft for 2009 and was hoping for a smoother draft this time around. I showed up on time and found the perfect 2009 draft iTunes mix of Fiddy and Sheryl Crow. So far, so fresh. Going into this draft (sponsored by Behind the Plate Fantasy), I wanted to do one thing, draft a pitcher really early and see how it affected the rest of my draft. Since this was a mock 2009 draft, I wasn’t too concerned. In other words, I was winging it. Okay, without further ado, my second 2009 fantasy baseball draft (Mock, ya’ll):

Here’s my (mock) draft notes that I jotted down as I drafted:

1st and 2nd picks: I was a bit surprised Johan Santana was still there at the 14th pick. I would never draft him there, but for this (mock) experiment, it was good value. Even if I’m content with finding pitching later, I think he’s about as reliable as a fantasy ace as you’re going to find. I took him here because this is a mock and I’m interested in seeing how my offense works out taking a pitcher this high. BTW, Pedroia went in the second round. Drafting while on drugs is bad!

3rd and 4th picks: I took Aramis and David Ortiz. Here I’m just trying to set the offense straight. Hopefully Ortiz has a (mock) bounce back year in 2009. Webb, Peavy, Hamels and Halladay were all on the board and I’m already regretting taking Santana with my 2nd pick. Some other guys that went before my picks that I wouldn’t have wanted anyway – Brian Roberts and Russell Martin.

5th and 6th picks: I took Vlad and almost took Abreu until I realized this wasn’t a draft for 2001, so I grabbed Adam Dunn. At this point I feel like I’ve set my offense back on track and can begin to grab some pitchers again. That was a mighty deep ditch I had to dig myself out of for five rounds. In the fifth round, I would’ve preferred just about everyone instead of Vlad… Well, except Jeter and Mauer.

7th and 8th picks: I took Jay Bruce with my 7th pick. The logical explanation is also the most obvious, so let me explain by saying Dusty Baker briefly inhabited my body. And before you mock my mock, someone took Andre Ethier in the 7th round. I’m not sure Andre Ethier would take Andre Ethier in the 7th round. I grabbed Josh Beckett in the 8th round. Another sign that there was plenty of pitching to grab late.

9th and 10th picks:  Someone took Konerko and some of the ‘perts chimed in, “Haha! That dude is done,” and “I agree.” I didn’t say, “I agree,” I’m just saying someone said they agreed, but I do agree. The ninth round is too early for Konerko. He’s like Delgado going into 2008. Wait, but Delgado just had a solid season…. Hmm… And I just took Delgado. And Cano. Mocking on…

11th and 12th picks: Carlos Marmol doesn’t have the job officially, but this will prolly be one of the top value picks of the (mock) draft. If they were giving out mock trophies, I would’ve just won one. Then I grabbed Burnett and officially have secured too much pitching, but you cannot argue with Burnett here. I might try the Santana pick with my 1st or 2nd pick again in a mock draft, but this has all but sealed my draft strategy again for 2009. I just don’t see myself as a pitching early type of guy.

13th and 14th picks: I took Yunel and Wilson. Hey maybe Yunel will get traded to the Padres and really suck! Wilson’s hard to argue with here, he’s the epitome of SAGNOF. Not sure how I went from grabbing Burnett to Yunel in one round. Was I skipped a few rounds?

15th and 16th picks: I was waiting on Greinke or Javier Vazquez. Greinke was taken a few picks before me. Scooped! I think I’m going to end up with Javier Vazquez on a lot of teams in 2009. He seems to be very undervalued. I mean, I snagged him with the 191st pick. That’s fool’s gold! (Or some cliché that applies.) So my staff is Santana, Beckett, Burnett and Vazquez. I think I could trade away half of that staff and be fine. I’d prolly target Adrian Gonzalez with Beckett. Or something similarly fresh. (BTW, I’m bringing fresh back. You’re welcome.)

17th and 20th picks: I’m skipping around now because this shizz is getting wickety-wack on the too-long-for-the-Razzball-reader’s-attention-span tip. I grabbed Theriot for middle infield because my team has no speed. Did I mean to (mock) draft a team with no speed? Not especially, but I could trade Johan for Taveras and still have plenty of pitching. Then I grabbed Rauch with the 20th pick because I think there’s a good chance he’s going to be closing in the desert in 2009.

21st, 22nd, 23rd picks: I usually look at these picks as guys that are hot in spring training or total sleepers that I don’t care if I drop before the season even starts. Salty, Blalock and Corpas fit that (mock) bill.

Schadenfreude has me tuned to The Pickup Artist every Sunday night. C’mon, Simeon, neg the target! Schadenfreude had me floating on a cloud for two days last week after I saw pictures from an old high school buddy’s wedding. He got fat and bald! Ha! I’m in shape and I have my hair!  So schadenfreude should have me thrilled to see Utley with an injury. Unfortunately, Chase Utley is different. Chase’s injury leaves me with no joy. You know how you use words when you’re writing that you would never say in real life? Well, I’m unabashedly a fan of Chase Utley, and I don’t think I’ve ever said “unabashedly” in real life. This Buick is unabashedly economical! But that’s how much I like Utley, I can’t express my love for him in words I normally use.  Is this because I know Utley loves him some hookers? That can’t hurt, but it’s more than that. It’s more than his slicked-back, I’m-Tom-Cruise-in-The-Color-of-Money douchebag hair and his cooler-than-Eckstein hustle.  It’s… Maybe it’s his love for hookers. Either way, his injury could have him out until June of 2009. If you’re keeping him with a price tag higher than $25, you really need to reevaluate your Chase Utley keeper situation, right? Well, when he broke his hand in 2007, he bounced back quicker than anyone thought was possible. Can he do the same with this hip injury? He’s got the mettle. (There I go again using a word I would never use in everyday conversation.)

Hey, yo, Bo knows this and Bo knows that, but Bo don’t know Jack because Bo don’t know when Utley’s going to be back… So yo, yo, what’s the best case scenario? Everyone seems to think the injury to Chase’s hip will keep him out of any baseball-related activities until at least mid- to late-March aka the end of 2009 Spring Training. Let’s give him two weeks later to be safe. Then he needs at least two weeks to get up to speed. That means we’ll see Utley at the beginning of May at the earliest. This wouldn’t kill Utley’s production for 2009, but it might hurt the perception of his value in 2009. So, for the first time in a while, Utley could actually come as a bargain. I imagine he’ll fall to the late second or third rounds of early 2009 drafts. If you’re not drafting until March, then there’s a good chance we’ll have a better idea when exactly Utley will return and his value will either rise or fall. Right now, I want Utley in the second round.  Remember in the preseason of 2008 when ‘perts were comparing Pujols to Jim Abbott? Remember what that did to his draft value? Yeah, and he just won the NL MVP. For keepers, it depends on your situation, but I’d still look to hold onto Utley for 2009. He’ll still give you more than 99% of the other 2nd basemen, even if he misses a month. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Carlos Marmol – When I went over the Gregg trade for fantasy, I mentioned that I thought Gregg might become the closer because Piniella might pull some boneheaded “experience matters” maneuver. That’s not to say Marmol won’t have value or won’t get plenty of saves, whether he has the job officially or not. Don’t forget, Gregg is garbage.  Even with Wood admirably holding down the closer job in Chicago last year, Marmol still came in 13th on the list of top 20 closers for 2008.

DON’T KEEP

Joe Saunders – If keeping Saunders causes you to have an erection longer than thirty seconds, you should see a doctor.

It’s easy to look back at a league you just lost in and come up with several ‘What ifs’ that would’ve led your team to victory.

I’m going to take a look at one of my expert league teams that sucked it – coming in 8th out of 12 in a league set up by Brock for Broglio and co-won by Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority and Tim McLeod of Rotorob.  Rotonomics finished a disappointing 10th, obviously hobbled by their Timlessness.

I finished with 57.5 points.  The co-winners finished with 95 points.  How much of these 37.5 points could I have reduced with just a little draft luck.

Below are my picks along with hindsight grades and some info on whomelse was on the board.  Just making three different decisions – all three near coin-flip – would’ve netted an estimate 26 extra points and could’ve put me in contention.

• Pick #8 – Jeff Francouer.  Swap with Jason Bay who actually ranked higher based on my Point Shares but I moved him down b/c he fucked me with moose antlers the previous year.  Point gain (using Point Shares) is 9.82 points (Bay was +4.11, Frenchy was -5.71)
• Pick #9 – Juan Pierre.  Swap with Jacoby Ellsbury who went a few picks later would’ve netted 6.09 points (+1.48 vs. -4.61)
• Pick #14 – Khalil Greene.  Swap with fellow Dhyslexic SS Jhonny Peralta who went a pick later nets 10.29 points (1.86 vs. -8.61).

The rest of the blame would have to go to FA pickups. Of the top 40 most valuable players drafted after #200, I had two (Fuentes and Torres) and traded Fuentes soon after for Rickie Weeks (ugh).  RotoAuthority drafted McLouth (5th most valuable with an ADP greater than 200) and picked up Cliff Lee (MVP > 200 ADP) and Aubrey Huff (6th most valuable > 200 ADP).  RotoRob didn’t score with FA hitters but had Ervin Santana (3rd most valuable) + drafted bargains (Roy Halladay & Mariano Rivera) + a great trade (Johan Santana’s great 2nd half for a crappy 2nd half from Utley – the trade was w/ me BTW…).   (To see a list of the top fantasy bargains of 2008.)

So there you have it.  A draft with four great picks out of the first 6 ruined by an awful 7th-9th, a coin-flip in the 14th, and missing out on just about every impactful FA.  And if the three picks above didn’t suck so much, I wouldn’t have had to trade Johan’s great 2nd half (2.10 ERA in 110 IP) for Utley’s mediocre one (46/8/35 in 247 ABs).

In an offseason of questionable moves for the Royals, they just one-downed themselves.  Or is it one-upped? Coco Crisp was traded to the Royals for Ramon Ramirez. This trade says more about the state of baseball than much else. The Sox send a fourth OF/bench player to the Royals where he’ll be a starter and major key to their offense. Surplus is nice when you have it, ain’t it, Epstein? If the trade were going the other way, I can only assume a middle man for the Sawx is about a number two starter on the Royals. Anyway, here’s some 2009 fantasy baseball implications for this trade:

Coco Crisp – Coco Crisp will be a starter again. For the Ministry of Silly Names, this is a great day. For everyone else, this means a very cheap potential 15/20/.280 hitter has just entered the league.  Also, with the peasant Royals, Crisp will prolly be the leadoff man, but don’t think that means much in the way of runs. David DeJesus was their primary leadoff man in 2008 and he only scored 70 runs.

Mark Teahen – This trade pushes Teahen to the bench.  Not a big loss for fantasy.

Ramon Ramirez – Has solid stuff for a middle reliever and I would consider grabbing him late in deep AL-Only leagues if you’re a Mr. B. Don’t go crazy though, he’s not really a mixed league candidate just yet.

Justin Masterson – Boom goes the dynamite!  Or is it boom goes his fantasy value? With the addition of Ramirez, Masterson could be heading into the rotation or the Sawx might use him for trade bait while his value is high. Everything I’ve read on Masterson says he’s a solid middle reliever who could be exploited in the rotation. Personally, I think a Sawx starter has value in the right matchups, even if he’s Danny Masterson little brother.