The Moment of Zen:
Today, I’ll again turn to a famous koan. I have actually seen and heard different versions of this paradox, often referred to as a “double bind,” and I’ve been unable to locate the original one. So, below, I relate the koan as it has been told to me:
A Zen master held up a stick to his student and asked, “What is this?”
After a pause for deliberation from the student, the master further explained, “If you tell me this is a stick, I will hit you with it. If you tell me it is not a stick, I will hit you with it.”
The student thought for a moment, then walked over to the master, grabbed the stick, and broke it in half.
This is the type of thought exercise that Zen can be both famous and infamous for. The question itself, “What is this?” seems simple enough until a consequence is added as pressure for the answer. But of course nothing in Zen is simple – except that all of Zen is apparently simple. Ah, very clear, indeed, wouldn’t you agree? Hence, both the fame and infamy.
When introduced to this koan the first time, particularly to the master’s question, “What is this?” referring to the stick in his hand, my thoughts immediately went to the impermanence of reality. I also considered the limitations of our perceptions, whether biological, spiritual, or due to being conditioned by society or expectation. I began to consider whether anything is, in fact, really as it appears to us. Maybe the stick isn’t a stick – maybe I just perceive it as such.
Then, as the koan closed with the student grabbing the stick and breaking it, only then did I become aware of how much I had overthought the master’s question. The thought of rejecting the two options the master gave never once occurred to me; I was looking for something, I don’t know, deeper? More sophisticated?
In my study of Zen, I am reminded again and again how much I complicate things that might actually be quite simple if I were to stop trying to outthink whatever it is and instead simply start addressing the parts of the question, whether they are articulated or not, that can be addressed if only I’ll let myself see those parts.
How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?
When this article is published, we will find ourselves at the All Star Break. As someone who isn’t particularly interested in pageantry, I find myself mostly using that downtime from the fantasy calendar not to religiously watch the home run derby or the All Star Game itself. Instead, like anyone else who wants to win in fantasy baseball, I look at my teams to try to determine where I can feasibly make up ground in standings.
Years ago, when I first started to take fantasy more seriously and started these ASB-assessments of my teams, my focus was always on the big, shiny stats: homers, stolen bases, wins, saves, and ERA were the ones that got most of my attention. To me, this made sense because hitters who are good at homers end up driving runs, RBIs, and batting average. So more homers is obviously better, right? With pitching, if I can find someone who is getting a lot of wins, that’s probably because he is good at Ks, ERA, and WHIP. There’s nothing particularly misguided about that thinking – if you find the best players, they are going to help your team. The problem, of course, is if you’re in a league with players who know anything about fantasy, they are also looking for those same things, so all the players who could be picked up have already been picked up. How can I improve my teams if everyone is doing what I’m doing?
I have come to understand that I was too focused on whether the stick was, in fact, a stick. As I’ve gained more experience in the game, I’ve slowly learned that shifting my focus away from those most obvious stats might actually help me more; in other words, instead of staring at the stick to see if it’s a stick, I’m learning to consider less obvious options.
Fantasy managers overlook lots of stats that actually correlate strongly to fantasy success. Offensively, instead of obsessing over homers, I’ve learned instead to look closely at plate appearances or at bats as a driver of opportunity, and then I’ve learned to identify runs scored as an indicator of untapped value. My thinking is simple – if a batter is getting to bat often, good things can happen, and if a player is scoring runs, that means he’s getting on base, which may necessarily lead to things like RBIs and batting average. Similarly, in pitching, I’ve learned to look at innings pitched as a driver of opportunity and K/9 as an indicator of untapped value. Again, the simplistic thinking is if pitchers are getting innings, good things can happen. If they are getting a high ratio of Ks for whatever time the pitcher is in the game, that means he might be given more innings, allowing more Ks, opportunities for wins, better ERA, and so on.
If this seems overly simplistic, it kind of is. But for some reason, other fantasy managers seem less interested in these stats that are right in front of us. In other words, there’s something in my power to do that others in my league might not be doing. It sounds too easy and obvious to work, yet it helps every year.
In that spirit, this week I’ll point out a few lesser-known players who are excelling in these oh-so-obvious, yet under-utilized markers of value. Maybe we can find some diamonds in the rough that will put our team on top in the end. I’ll be going through this process in real-time – so as I make discoveries, I’ll be recording them. I’m trying my best to go into this process with no expectations in terms of players I might find who are doing something I like.
To keep this article from going on forever, I will focus only on hitters this week.
My very simple hitter process is to track ABs / PAs, both season long and over the last 15 days, to see if I spot some unexpected names and then cross-reference those names with rostership on ESPN and Yahoo. If the players are under 65% rostered on both ESPN and Yahoo, I then cross-reference BBs and Rs to see if anyone is turning opportunities to bat into times on base and times crossing the plate.
To start with, here is the rostership data (as of July 12th) in NFBC Online Championship 12-team leagues (to represent high-stakes) and in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues (to represent some of the most popular fantasy sites):
| Name | NFBC OC | ESPN | Yahoo |
| Brett Baty | 34 | 3.4 | 6 |
| Josh Bell | 63 | 17 | 25 |
| Alec Bohm | 97 | 17.7 | 40 |
| Kody Clemens | 100 | 29.5 | 49 |
| J.P. Crawford | 12 | 6 | 9 |
| Nick Gonzales | 62 | 16.2 | 38 |
| Kyle Karros | 18 | 9.7 | 28 |
| Chase Meidroth | 74 | 9.1 | 29 |
| TJ Rumfield | 100 | 63.2 | 48 |
| Gavin Sheets | 91 | 12.6 | 11 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | 34 | 3.4 | 6 |
This table is the pure data of the names who are among the top 75ish hitters in terms of either PAs or ABs (again, I checked both season-long and over the last 15 days) who also popped up on the BBs and / or the Rs lists (season-long or over the last 15 days). All stats are as of beginning of day on Sunday, July 12th (before Sunday games were played).
| SEASON-LONG | |||||||||
| Name | Appeared on which list? | Seas. PA | Seas. AB | Seas. R | Seas. HR | Seas. RBI | Seas. BB | Seas. AVG | Seas. OBP |
| Brett Baty | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
||||||||
| Josh Bell | PA/AB: Seas.
Runs: Seas., 15-day |
371 | 340 | 48 | 13 | 60 | 27 | 0.25 | 0.307 |
| Alec Bohm | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day |
369 | 334 | 30 | 11 | 47 | 25 | 0.216 | 0.279 |
| Kody Clemens | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
||||||||
| J.P. Crawford | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
330 | 280 | 37 | 10 | 25 | 44 | 0.21 | 0.327 |
| Nick Gonzales | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
368 | 335 | 50 | 4 | 41 | 28 | 0.304 | 0.368 |
| Kyle Karros | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
319 | 274 | 47 | 9 | 34 | 40 | 0.266 | 0.364 |
| Chase Meidroth | PA/AB: Seas., 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas. |
388 | 342 | 54 | 7 | 31 | 37 | 0.272 | 0.345 |
| TJ Rumfield | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
380 | 332 | 42 | 12 | 47 | 39 | 0.298 | 0.382 |
| Gavin Sheets | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
318 | 277 | 34 | 14 | 40 | 37 | 0.223 | 0.324 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: 15-day Runs: 15-day |
The players with the gray boxes instead of data are the ones who showed up on the 15-day lists only, but not the season-long lists. Since their good performance (or opportunity) has been recent, I didn’t want to clutter the table with even more data.
The players on the above list aren’t super exciting players (well, I think there’s an argument to be made in favor of a couple of them) – or at the very least, weren’t expected by most fantasy managers to be super exciting players. Yet, as we can see, there are some strong stats in this list. Those stats become even clearer if I extrapolate them to a season-long 650 PA pace:
| BASED ON SEASON-
LONG |
|||||
| Name | Appeared on which list? | R per 650 PA | HR per 650 PA | RBI per 650 PA | BB per 650 PA |
| Brett Baty | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
||||
| Josh Bell | PA/AB: Seas.
Runs: Seas., 15-day |
84.10 | 22.78 | 105.12 | 47.30 |
| Alec Bohm | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day |
52.85 | 19.38 | 82.79 | 44.04 |
| Kody Clemens | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
||||
| J.P. Crawford | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
72.88 | 19.70 | 49.24 | 86.67 |
| Nick Gonzales | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
88.32 | 7.07 | 72.42 | 49.46 |
| Kyle Karros | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
95.77 | 18.34 | 69.28 | 81.50 |
| Chase Meidroth | PA/AB: Seas., 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas. |
90.46 | 11.73 | 51.93 | 61.98 |
| TJ Rumfield | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
71.84 | 20.53 | 80.39 | 66.71 |
| Gavin Sheets | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
69.50 | 28.62 | 81.76 | 75.63 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: 15-day Runs: 15-day |
For the R, HR, and RBI sections, I’ve boldfaced any R / RBI numbers that surpass 70 and any HR number that surpasses 18. Obviously, extrapolated numbers are imaginary – there’s no guarantee that these guys will continue to perform at the level they’ve achieved so far. But it’s interesting to see the types of numbers that they’ve paced out for up to this point.
If I break the table into the last 15 games (again, stats end as of beginning of day July 12th), here is what we’d end up with:
| 15-DAY LIST | |||||||||
| Name | Appeared on which list? | 15-day PA | 15-day AB | 15-day R | 15-day HR | 15-day RBI | 15-day BB | 15-day AVG | 15-day OBP |
| Brett Baty | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
52 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 5 | .289 | .346 |
| Josh Bell | PA/AB: Seas.
Runs: Seas., 15-day |
53 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 5 | .271 | .340 |
| Alec Bohm | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day |
56 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | .188 | .304 |
| Kody Clemens | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
54 | 49 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 3 | .265 | .296 |
| J.P. Crawford | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
53 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .170 | .264 |
| Nick Gonzales | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
61 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 10 | .380 | .492 |
| Kyle Karros | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
60 | 49 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 9 | .327 | .450 |
| Chase Meidroth | PA/AB: Seas., 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas. |
53 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 | .227 | .333 |
| TJ Rumfield | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
56 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | .340 | .446 |
| Gavin Sheets | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
53 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | .167 | .321 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: 15-day Runs: 15-day |
60 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 18 | 7 | .385 | .450 |
Again, to help better contextualize how good some of these numbers might be, I’ve extrapolated the 15-day numbers out to a season-long 650 PA pace:
| BASED ON 15-DAY LIST | |||||
| Name | Appeared on which list? | 15-day R per 650 PA | 15-day HR per 650 PA | 15-day RBI per 650 PA | 15-day BB per 650 PA |
| Brett Baty | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
112.50 | 12.50 | 62.50 | 62.50 |
| Josh Bell | PA/AB: Seas.
Runs: Seas., 15-day |
85.85 | 49.06 | 110.38 | 61.32 |
| Alec Bohm | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day |
69.64 | 23.21 | 58.04 | 58.04 |
| Kody Clemens | PA/AB: 15-day
Runs: 15-day |
132.41 | 48.15 | 156.48 | 36.11 |
| J.P. Crawford | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
49.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 73.58 |
| Nick Gonzales | PA/AB: Seas.
BB: 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
95.90 | 10.66 | 85.25 | 106.56 |
| Kyle Karros | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas., 15-day |
119.17 | 43.33 | 119.17 | 97.50 |
| Chase Meidroth | PA/AB: Seas., 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day Runs: Seas. |
85.85 | 12.26 | 49.06 | 110.38 |
| TJ Rumfield | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
81.25 | 0.00 | 34.82 | 92.86 |
| Gavin Sheets | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: Seas., 15-day |
36.79 | 12.26 | 61.32 | 110.38 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PA/AB: 15-day
BB: 15-day Runs: 15-day |
140.83 | 65.00 | 195.00 | 75.83 |
Just as I did before, for the R, HR, and RBI sections, I’ve boldfaced any R / RBI numbers that surpass 70 and any HR number that surpasses 18 (with all of the same caveats about how extrapolation is imaginary, etc.).
From these lists, here are some quick takeaways:
Brett Baty: Baty’s playing time opportunity has changed dramatically, and he has the skills to make that opportunity matter. He needs to be more of a target in most leagues, certainly 12-team and deeper.
Josh Bell: Bell isn’t exciting, but the dude produces runs. He’ll have slumps, but his season-long numbers are routinely there. In 15-team and deeper, he’s a must roster. In 12-team, he’s worth considering.
Alec Bohm: Bohm’s season hasn’t been what he would want, but he’s certainly not a zero on teams. For 15-team and deeper, he’s a steady run producer.
Kody Clemens: What does this guy have to do to get fantasy managers’ attention? He’s having a strong season and needs to be rostered everywhere.
J.P. Crawford: Crawford’s a deep-league (only) run source who is apparently selling out for more power.
Nick Gonzales: This guy has been a steady source of runs all season. In 12-team or deeper, Gonzales is interesting.
Kyle Karros: It’s time to give Karros his due. He may be making a star turn, yet few seem to be noticing.
Chase Meidroth: Won’t help you at all in batting average, but the guy scores runs.
TJ Rumfield: All this guy does is hit. And his home park is great for batting average.
Gavin Sheets: Sheets offers steady, if unexciting, contribution. He’s a must roster in 15-team and deeper, and he’s interesting in 12-team.
Esmerlyn Valdez: Valdez, a top prospect in the Pirates system, is off to a ridiculous start. Obviously, his pace will slow down, but he’s exciting and is hitting the ball hard over 50% of the time, with a 92.1 mph EV, 112.7 mph maxEV, and a near 30% Barrel%. Yes, please.
I hope this different way to look at fantasy stats has helped turn you on to some players you might have missed – it certainly did for me. Next week, I plan to continue this process and take a look at pitching. Enjoy your ASB; we’ve earned it! Until next week. –ADHamley
Too much man. Tough read.