No Doubt

Name Team Start 1 Start 2
Jose Berrios MIN LAA @SEA
Shane Bieber CLE @CHW BAL
Aaron Nola PHI MIL COL
Chris Paddack SD @LAD PIT

Chris Paddack has been a complete monster to start the season, rewarding his owners with a 1.55 ERA, 0.69 ERA, and 46 Ks in only 40.2 IP that comes out to a 30.7% K rate. While the BABIP may be a bit fluky at .176, the batted ball profile vs his arsenal has been impressive. He has only given up 4 barreled balls in 93 batted ball events to go along with the 5th lowest line drive rate allowed. At the Dodgers isn’t ideal, but there’s no way you could sit him down in a 2 start week the way he has performed. Plus, that change up is NASTY!

 

Throw Em If You Got Em

Name Team Start 1 Start 2
Matthew Boyd DET HOU OAK
Robbie Ray ARI PIT SF
Kyle Gibson MIN LAA @SEA
Jack Flaherty STL @ATL @TEX
Brad Peacock HOU @DET @BOS
Joe Musgrove PIT @ARI @SD

Donkey Teeth and I profiled Matthew (side note: why couldn’t he just have stayed as Matt?) Boyd on the Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports podcast. Both match ups are tough this week, otherwise, he’d be in the No Doubt category.

Following a Shaky (Knees Festival was a blast) start to the season, Kyle Gibson has gotten it together in his last 4 games to the tune of 24 IP, 2.25 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 28 Ks (29.8% K rate). Among qualified starters last season, Gibson was 22nd in swinging strike rate, and this season he has added 1.7% to his rate to 13.2%, which is good enough for 14th best. Both his inside the zone and outside the zone swing rates are improved from last season and he’s 9.9% on his first strike rate.

Brad Peacock went back to the windup for the first time in years to the tune of a 7 inning outing, admittedly against the Royals, with 3 hits, 12 Ks, 1 BB, and no runs allowed. The starts vs Oakland and at Minnesota have certainly hurt his overall numbers, but if you remove those starts, he’s sitting at a 1.86 ERA right now. You can’t go back and remove those starts, but he’s certainly better than his current 4.30 ERA, supported by his 3.36 FIP. This move back to the windup is worth monitoring and should be picked up for his 2 starts this week.

 

I Don’t Like It…But I Accept It

Name Team Start 1 Start 2
Jerad Eickhoff PHI MIL COL
Yusei Kikuchi SEA OAK MIN
Brandon Woodruff MIL @PHI @ATL
Kyle Hendricks CHC @CIN @WSH

Just like Lando, you may not like it, but will probably accept these 2 start pitchers. All 4 of them are positive values on Rudy’s player rater for the year, but for one reason or another, may cause a bit of hesitation this week.

Eickhoff has performed well, but how can you trust a pumpkin Charlie Brown? As Donkey Teeth and Grey discussed on the podcast, Eickhoff has ditched the slider for a cutter and is getting better whiff raters on it than 2 out of 3 seasons he threw the slider. He has scrapped the sinker and is leaning primarily on 3 pitches, FB, change, and Slider.

 

Brown Paper Bag

Name Team Start 1 Start 2
Mike Foltynewicz ATL STL MIL
Jonathan Loaisiga NYY BAL TB
Tyler Skaggs LAA @MIN KC
Wilmer Font NYM @WSH @MIA

Mike Foltynewicz stays in this category for this week, but some breathing exercises may be necessary as he throws this week. After coming back from the bone spurs in the elbow, Folty has struggled with his velocity as he’s down more than 2 mph on his fastball. In a 2 start week, I’m willing to throw him out there and hope that he’s just shaking off the rust, but I can’t help wonder if he’s still injured. The one positive is that he’s continued to cut down on his walk rate, but the drop in strikeouts is likely not worth the trade off for your team. Come on Folty, show us something this week!

 

Eyes Wide Shut

Name Team Start 1 Start 2
Brett Anderson OAK @SEA @DET
Nick Kingham PIT @ARI @SD
Danny Duffy KC TEX @LAA
Reynaldo Lopez CWS CLE TOR
Sonny Gray CIN CHC LAD
Andrew Cashner BAL @NYY @CLE

Danny Duffy is this week’s Streamonator 2 start free pick. He is the only member of this group that rates as a positive start across both for the week. He’s been a bit lucky to start the year with many signs pointing to a regression on the way. Despite the 3.06 ERA, he has a 1.36 WHIP with a 4.59 FIP. I’m not buying for the season, but he’s probably your guy if your bargain hunting for a 2 start guy this week.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Name Team Start 1 Start 2
Freddy Peralta MIL @PHI @ATL
Shelby Miller TEX @KC STL
Ryan Carpenter DET HOU OAK
Jeremy Hellickson WSH NYM CHC
David Hess BAL @NYY @CLE

 

  1. Looks like Trent Thornton gets a 2 start week @SF and @CHW. A brown paper bagger even with 2 plus match-ups.

  2. Chucky says:
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    Mixed emotions on Freddy with two tough road games, Atl and Philly. Just wondering if the new follower role suits Freddy differently. He beat a non too shabby Wash lineup on getaway day. I think this is a genuine test for Freddy facing two tough lineups on the road. If somehow we can find the silver lining a week from now, Freddy could be back in the fantasy god’s good graces.

    • I like Freddy P’s FB and curve, but until he figures out the change or another 3rd pitch to mix in, I think we’re just going to see a lot of up and down from Freddy. Due to a lack of a 3rd pitch and his on and off relationship with his control, just doesn’t get deep into games (51st highest pitches/PA).

  3. dingo37 says:
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    Will Caleb Smith go twice? Throw em if you got em?

    • Marlins have 2 days off this week, so, while it’s possible Smith could get 2, the Marlins would have to skip somebody in the rotation. I’d imagine you likely only get 1 from Smith this week, but 2 next, as I doubt they want to skip people in the rotation and pile up innings on his arm.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Hope Puerto Rico was good!

    • Thanks Grey. Everything went well down there. Also, appreciate you feeding and talking to Donkey Teeth while I was away.

  5. Adam says:
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    Are we sure Paddack gets 2 starts? I thought the dodgers were using a 6 man rotation.

    • Not absolutely 100% positive, but the Padres said the 6 man rotation would be temporary, and they sent Cal Quantrill back down to AAA with no starting pitcher replacement move made yet.

  6. Sully says:
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    Weaver going twice this week or next?

    • DBacks have 2 days off this week. There’s potential for 2 starts if they skip somebody in the rotation, but I doubt that happens. He’s likely a 2 start guy next week.

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