Two Start Pitchers, Week 8: Bearish on Paddack’ington

No Doubt

Chris Paddack has been a complete monster to start the season, rewarding his owners with a 1.55 ERA, 0.69 ERA, and 46 Ks in only 40.2 IP that comes out to a 30.7% K rate. While the BABIP may be a bit fluky at .176, the batted ball profile vs his arsenal has been impressive. He has only given up 4 barreled balls in 93 batted ball events to go along with the 5th lowest line drive rate allowed. At the Dodgers isn’t ideal, but there’s no way you could sit him down in a 2 start week the way he has performed. Plus, that change up is NASTY!

Okay this Chris Paddack changeup was FILTHY pic.twitter.com/TkPaMPzJUj

— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) May 7, 2019

Throw Em If You Got Em

Donkey Teeth and I profiled Matthew (side note: why couldn’t he just have stayed as Matt?) Boyd on the Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports podcast. Both match ups are tough this week, otherwise, he’d be in the No Doubt category.

Following a Shaky (Knees Festival was a blast) start to the season, Kyle Gibson has gotten it together in his last 4 games to the tune of 24 IP, 2.25 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 28 Ks (29.8% K rate). Among qualified starters last season, Gibson was 22nd in swinging strike rate, and this season he has added 1.7% to his rate to 13.2%, which is good enough for 14th best. Both his inside the zone and outside the zone swing rates are improved from last season and he’s 9.9% on his first strike rate.

Brad Peacock went back to the windup for the first time in years to the tune of a 7 inning outing, admittedly against the Royals, with 3 hits, 12 Ks, 1 BB, and no runs allowed. The starts vs Oakland and at Minnesota have certainly hurt his overall numbers, but if you remove those starts, he’s sitting at a 1.86 ERA right now. You can’t go back and remove those starts, but he’s certainly better than his current 4.30 ERA, supported by his 3.36 FIP. This move back to the windup is worth monitoring and should be picked up for his 2 starts this week.

I Don’t Like It…But I Accept It

Just like Lando, you may not like it, but will probably accept these 2 start pitchers. All 4 of them are positive values on Rudy’s player rater for the year, but for one reason or another, may cause a bit of hesitation this week.

Eickhoff has performed well, but how can you trust a pumpkin Charlie Brown? As Donkey Teeth and Grey discussed on the podcast, Eickhoff has ditched the slider for a cutter and is getting better whiff raters on it than 2 out of 3 seasons he threw the slider. He has scrapped the sinker and is leaning primarily on 3 pitches, FB, change, and Slider.

Brown Paper Bag

Mike Foltynewicz stays in this category for this week, but some breathing exercises may be necessary as he throws this week. After coming back from the bone spurs in the elbow, Folty has struggled with his velocity as he’s down more than 2 mph on his fastball. In a 2 start week, I’m willing to throw him out there and hope that he’s just shaking off the rust, but I can’t help wonder if he’s still injured. The one positive is that he’s continued to cut down on his walk rate, but the drop in strikeouts is likely not worth the trade off for your team. Come on Folty, show us something this week!

Eyes Wide Shut

Danny Duffy is this week’s Streamonator 2 start free pick. He is the only member of this group that rates as a positive start across both for the week. He’s been a bit lucky to start the year with many signs pointing to a regression on the way. Despite the 3.06 ERA, he has a 1.36 WHIP with a 4.59 FIP. I’m not buying for the season, but he’s probably your guy if your bargain hunting for a 2 start guy this week.

I Immediately Regret This Decision