Starter Notes for Week 24…

      • The Padres and Athletics are both throwing a 6-man rotation this week.
      • The Dodgers are giving Hyun-Jin Ryu a pass on his next start, but haven’t announced when he will make the next one yet, or how the rotation will work this week. While Ryu will be skipped, the Dodgers are also getting Rich Hill back this week, which could maintain the 6 man rotation.
      • How the Dodgers handle the rotation means that Walker Buehler may or may not have 2 starts this week. The good news, of course you’re starting Walker Buehler. The bad news, not sure that he’s getting 2 starts, but he’d be a ‘No Doubt’ guy if he does.
      • The Yankees Tuesday starter has yet to be announced, but should be a 2 start option whoever they throw. My best guess right now is that it’s a bullpen game with Chad Green starting.

 

No Doubt

Name Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 PR 2nd Half ERA 2nd Half FIP 2nd Half K/9 2nd Half BB/9 2nd Half HR/9
Jacob deGrom NYM ARZ LAD 19.3 1.91 2.38 11.18 2.32 0.55
Shane Bieber CLE @LAA MIN 24.6 2.95 3.04 10.85 1.77 1.06
Ryan Yarbrough TB @TEX @LAA 11.9 1.93 2.09 8.92 0.24 0.48

What do you want here, you’re starting these guys.

Pretty…Pretty Good

Name Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 PR ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Zack Greinke HOU OAK @KC 19.7 3.82 3.88 7.92 2.05 1.17
Madison Bumgarner SF PIT MIA 11.2 3.47 3.56 8.23 1.67 1.03
Lance Lynn TEX TB OAK 15 3.65 3.35 11.61 3.65 0.95
Zack Wheeler NYM ARZ LAD 4.4 3.42 3.74 6.27 2.47 0.76
Aaron Nola PHI ATL BOS 13.9 3.44 3.70 10.06 3.04 1.06
Zac Gallen ARZ @NYM CIN -1.8 2.08 3.44 10.54 4.31 0.64

Lynn has the highest fastball velocity of his career in his age 32 season. His pitch mix has changed slightly as he’s moved away from such heavy sinker usage and throwing more of the four seamer and cutter. Whatever the changes, they’ve worked all season and Lynn is going to be an interesting pitcher to evaluate and rank for next season.After a rough 2018 that had people thinking he was done as a quality MLB pitching option, Lance Lynn has bounced back, and while I know it’s not a fantasy baseball stat, do you realize he has the 2nd highest WAR (at Fangraphs) among pitchers and 9th overall. Lynn has the best K rate, BB rate, and swinging strike rate of his career along with the 11th best batted ball rate (min. 300 events).

 

Gotta Have Faith

Name Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 PR ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Jose Quintana CHC @SD PIT 7.8 3.67 3.52 9.27 2.08 1.12
Max Fried ATL @PHI @WSH 12.1 3.02 2.68 11.01 2.31 0.71
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS NYY @PHI 12.6 2.57 4.28 7.97 4.37 0.90
Trevor Bauer CIN @SEA @ARZ 7.8 6.79 4.91 11.92 4.07 1.96
Mike Fiers OAK @HOU @TEX 10 2.90 4.71 6.53 2.90 1.31
Mike Foltynewicz ATL @PHI @WSH -8.3 3.31 4.19 8.54 3.86 1.10
Jose Berrios MIN WSH @CLE 9.2 5.37 4.25 10.26 3.47 1.42

There’s an argument to make that Trevor Bauer should be closer to No Doubt territory given his recent run, but he’s too talented for me to bury like that with 2 plus match-ups. Bauer’ fastball velocity is down the last couple months. He’s throwing less curveballs and sliders, which has added to the number of four seamers and cutters he’s throwing.

The cutter is not high on the list of impressive pitches that Bauer can throw and may be why he’s struggling. The curve and slider have been useful pitches this season, and I wonder if there is an underlying injury that has made Bauer adjust his mix. However, the thing that makes Bauer great, his mix of pitches and advanced approach, are also what get him in trouble at times as he is constantly tinkering and adjusting his pitch mix.

 

Maybe, Maybe Not, Maybe Go F*** Yourself

 

Name Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 PR ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Jon Lester CHC @SD PIT 2.9 4.98 4.37 8.68 3.54 1.29
Ivan Nova CWS KC @SEA -6 3.36 4.71 4.30 2.15 1.07
Wade Miley HOU OAK @KC 10.3 3.48 4.69 7.95 3.64 1.33
James Paxton NYY @BOS @TOR 8 4.37 4.47 11.80 3.23 1.94

A couple big names and couple names you probably don’t trust (and for good reason). Ivan Nova and Wade Miley have performed well in the second half, but won’t rack up the strikeouts. Jon Lester and James Paxton have both been a roller coaster ride after the All Star break, but I feel better about Lester with this week with  2 good match-ups.

 

Do You Feel Lucky Punk?

Name Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 PR ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Jordan Lyles MIL @MIA @STL 1.8 4.63 5.59 8.87 3.86 2.12
Jakob Junis KC @CWS HOU -1.4 4.26 4.03 8.36 2.20 1.17
Michael Wacha STL @COL MIL -9 4.44 5.38 9.23 3.42 2.05
Robert Dugger MIA MIL @SF -12 4.00 5.88 6.00 3.50 1.50
Anibal Sanchez WSH @MIN ATL -0.4 4.79 4.53 6.87 3.51 1.12
Chase Anderson MIL @MIA @STL -3 4.89 5.63 7.26 3.38 1.86
T.J. Zeuch TOR BOS NYY -5.7 4.50 2.71 9.00 4.50 0.00

Well do you? You better because each of these guys has the potential to blow up on you at any moment and each of them has at least one tough start other than Jakob Junis. If you’ve been following this article all season, you know Junis is a constant battle between my poor evaluation of him and the Streamonator’s love for him.

T.J. Zeuch may be the primary/bulk pitcher following Wilmer Font on his days. So, if you’re in a quality start league, or if you happen to use game score, he may take a hit in his value this week.

 

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance

Name Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 PR ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Justus Sheffield SEA CIN CWS -13.7 5.40 4.49 10.13 3.38 1.35
Merrill Kelly ARZ @NYM CIN 0.1 6.02 5.14 8.77 3.44 1.89
Elieser Hernandez MIA MIL @SF -8.3 5.21 6.19 7.58 3.55 2.13
Patrick Sandoval LAA CLE TB -11.9 5.23 4.28 9.58 3.92 1.31
Cal Quantrill SD CHC @COL -3.4 4.91 3.94 6.75 2.05 1.02

Free Streamonator Pick of the Week: Streamontaor likes Patrick Sandoval getting the Indians and Rays, although, I’d like Justus Sheffield’s starts more facing the Reds and White Sox at home if you’re looking down in this area.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Name Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 PR ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Trevor Williams PIT @SF @CHC -6.4 5.96 5.81 6.46 3.48 1.99
Dario Agrazal PIT @SF @CHC -10.5 6.02 6.46 4.46 2.45 2.01
Logan Webb SF PIT MIA -13.4 6.50 4.55 9.00 3.00 1.50
Chi Chi Gonzalez COL STL SD -18.2 7.09 7.06 4.64 4.91 2.18
Edwin Jackson DET NYY BAL -21.6 7.22 5.69 7.22 4.08 1.88
Ty Blach BAL LAD @DET -18.9 9.82 6.49 6.87 5.89 1.96

 

Projected 2 Start Days and Opponents

Team Projected 2 Start Days Opp. 1 Opp. 2
AL EAST
BAL Tuesday LAD @DET
BOS Monday NYY @PHI
NYY Monday, Tuesday @BOS/@DET @TOR
TB Tuesday @TEX @LAA
TOR Tuesday BOS NYY
AL CENTRAL
CWS Tuesday KC @SEA
CLE Monday @LAA MIN
DET Tuesday NYY BAL
KC Tuesday @CWS HOU
MIN Tuesday WSH @CLE
AL WEST
HOU Monday, Tuesday OAK @KC
LAA Monday CLE TB
OAK Monday (6 man) @HOU @TEX
SEA Tuesday CIN CWS
TEX Tuesday TB OAK
NL EAST
ATL Monday, Tuesday @PHI @WSH
MIA Monday, Tuesday MIL @SF
NYM Monday, Tuesday ARZ LAD
PHI Monday ATL BOS
WSH Tuesday @MIN ATL
NL CENTRAL
CHC Monday, Tuesday @SD PIT
CIN Tuesday @SEA @ARZ
MIL Monday, Tuesday @MIA @STL
PIT Monday, Tuesday @SF @CHC
STL Tuesday @COL MIL
NL WEST
ARZ Monday, Tuesday @NYM CIN
COL Tuesday STL SD
LAD Tuesday? @BAL @NYM
SD Monday (6 man) CHC @COL
SF Monday, Tuesday PIT MIA

 

  1. Alex says:
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    I wouldn’t dare starting Trevor Williams at Chicago, but is he worth a start @SF? Streamonator has it at -$1.6, but the projected line isn’t too ugly as far as ERA and WHIP go. I just need solid innings since I’m benching Berrios and Paxton in Boston.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      No. Still wouldn’t start him only at SF. Has to be a better 1 start streaming option out there.

  2. William Hung says:
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    Lester pitched today

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Thanks! They swapped Lester/Hendricks for match-up purposes. Hopefully that works better for Hendricks than it did Lester.

  3. Ty Inez says:
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    Kyle Hendricks switched with Lester making him a 2 start

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Thanks!

  4. LenFuego says:
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    “Jon Lester and James Paxton have both been a roller coaster ride after the All Star break.”

    Not sure why you would say that about Paxton. He has won every single one of his last 7 starts, with a 2.98 ERA. a 0.95 WHIP, and a K/9 of 10.8 over that period. Yeah, he had some rough spots before that, but he has been killing it since the calendar turned to Auguste. (I should know, I traded him away just before that 7th last start.)

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Post ASB and last 7 aren’t quite the same thing. I’d imagine the bad starts in July are why you traded him in August. One of those 7 includes a 5 IP, 4 ER outing, but you’re right that he has gotten it together here at the end of the season.

      • LenFuego says:
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        Yeah, I agree what you said was factual because you referred to post-ASG and not “since August 1”, but it just seemed like a comment missing the forest for the trees … like captioning a nude photo of Alicia Vikander as “woman with green background” :-)

        Paxton had that knee injury back in June or so, and it seems like it simply took him until the end of July to shake it.

  5. Ghost of Grady Little says:
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    Johnny Cueto debuting tomorrow and might get 2 starts this week. Worth a shot?

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Worth picking up, but I don’t think I’d be rolling him out there even w/ 2 starts.

      It’s possible that the Giants run a 6 man rotation, so, may not get 2 starts. Also, he’s had a long lay off including a couple set backs, I’d play it safe and see what he looks like first. It’s late in the season and I try to avoid ratio blow ups (for all the good it seems to do this year).

      • Ghost of Grady Little says:
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        thanks

  6. muskysmell says:
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    Just wanted to get your reasoning for Wheeler bring ranked above ERod in this week’s ranking.

    Wheeler seems pretty meh to me and the matchups don’t look great

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      It’s probably a bit of bias against ERod as I don’t trust him to not blow everything up here at some point, but I should likely give him more props for what he’s done recently. His ERA in the 2nd half is a sparkling 2.57, but that comes with an 88% LOB, 4.29 FIP, and a 1.37 WHIP that doesn’t really line up with his 2nd half performance.

      Wheeler hasn’t been quite as dominant in the 2nd half, but I trust him to maintain his level of performance more. Also, Wheeler gets to stay home for 2 vs playing the red hot Yankees and then going to a hitter friendly park in Philly. Would be nice if Wheeler could get the strikeouts going again, but I believe those will come around.

  7. Ben says:
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    Has any info come out about the Tuesday TBD Yankees starter? Juicy match up there with Edwin Jackson going for Detroit. Thinking about grabbing Nelson Cortes for the week in my deep AL only to try and snag a bulk relief win.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Still nothing yet. Chad Green threw 3 innings yesterday, so, not sure he’s the opener any longer. Loaisiga only threw 1 yesterday, maybe it’s some Cortes/Loaisiga combo?

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