No Doubt

Player Team Start 1 Start 2
Stephen Strasburg WSH CWS @SD
Blake Snell TB @DET @BOS
Shane Bieber CLE MIN NYY
Luis Castillo CIN @STL @PHI
Chris Paddack SD PHI WSH
Walker Buehler LAD @ARZ @SF

Time waits for no man, except Walker Buehler. Walker Buehler could finish a complete game shut out in 26 outs. Walker Buehler gets Chick-Fil-A on Sunday, in California. Walker Buehler killed the dog and John Wick begged for his life.  His name is actually Skywalker, but didn’t think they’d allow the Jedi to play in the league. Walker Buehler doesn’t teabag anyone, he potato sacks them.

Ok, ok, I could go on all day with Walker Buehler/Chuck Norris themed jokes, but Buehler has gotten it together in May and righted his season putting him into the No Doubt category this week despite being rouged up a bit in his last start. For the season, it’s been 3 bad starts that have hurt the season line, but it’s not like we can ignore them and your teams stats certainly don’t get any breaks.

However, in May, even with a bad start against the Mets, Walker has a 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, K rate is up 7.4% to 27.4, and the walks down from 9 in March and April to only 3 in May. BABIP is about the same for each month, but his left on base rate normalized closer to his rate from 2018 along with his overall numbers.

 

Pretty…Pretty Good

Player Team Start 1 Start 2
Kyle Hendricks CHC COL STL
Max Fried ATL @PIT @MIA
David Price BOS @KC TB
Aaron Nola PHI @SD CIN
Noah Syndergaard NYM SF COL
Masahiro Tanaka NYY @TOR @CLE
Frankie Montas OAK @LAA @TEX

I was hesitant that Frankie Montas’s breakout was legitimate, but after 2 months of great production, it’s hard for me to ignore. He’s added a splitter to his repertoire this season and it’s made all the difference. While still hesitant to fully buy-in for keeper/dynasty purposes, I’m on board this week despite facing 2 offenses in the top half of the league in scoring. New pitches have a tendency to get figured out, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good pitch.

The splitter has a nice 24.10% whiff rate, 61.54% ground ball rate (slider is at 64%), .192 batting average against (slider .167), and a .234 slugging against (slider .250). In short, the splitter and slider are both performing exceptionally and it shows in the numbers.

 

Throw Em If You Got Em

Player Team Start 1 Start 2
Madison Bumgarner SF @NYM LAD
Robbie Ray ARZ LAD @TOR
Griffin Canning LAA @CHC SEA
Wade Miley HOU @SEA BAL
Zach Davies MIL MIA PIT

MadBum might deserve to be in the tier above, but a match-up vs the Dodgers is about as bad as they come, other than maybe the Twins, and his performance this season has only been serviceable, not exceptional.

While I’m not fully buying into Miley or Davies, they’ve performed well on the season and both have 2 good starts this week. Griffin Canning has to go to Wrigley with the Cubs on a tear as a top 10 offense in May, but tough to sit a guy that has given up 2 earned runs in his last 18 IP. Donkey Teeth and I profiled him on the podcast this week if you want to hear more about our thoughts on Canning.

 

Brown Paper Bag

Player Team Start 1 Start 2
Eric Lauer SD PHI WSH
Jon Lester CHC LAA STL
Dylan Bundy BAL @TEX @HOU
Yusei Kikuchi SEA HOU @LAA

Big drop off from the haves and have nots this week. Eric Lauer and Jon Lester are two guys heading in opposite directions in their last 3 starts. Lauer has allowed 3 ERs in his 18 IP with no walks to the tune of a 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 48% ground ball rate.

In Lester’s last 3 starts, 10.29 ERA and 2.14 WHIP have been brutal and destroyed all the good work he was doing early in the season. While he was getting lucky early on, he’s been a bit unlucky (and bad), but the .412 BABIP at least means it hasn’t been all bad. Lester is a veteran and I expect him to right the ship at some point, but this 2 start week is based on faith, not the recent numbers, hence, the airplane barf bag that comes along with starting him.

 

Eyes Wide Shut

Player Team Start 1 Start 2
Corbin Martin HOU @SEA BAL
Pablo Lopez MIA @MIL ATL
Jeff Hoffman COL @CHC @NYM
Genesis Cabrera STL CIN @CHC
Clayton Richard TOR NYY ARZ

Donkey Teeth saw Genesis Cabrera when he was recently in Nashville and we talked about it on the podcast. He’s essentially a 2 pitch guy at this point, but with a FB that averages 96 and can get up to triple digits, he’s not a bad guy to take a shot on if you need to look in this tier.

Free Streamonator Pick of the Week: Corbin Martin. The Streamonator loves Martin’s 2 starts at Seattle and home for the Orioles. We talked about Corbin on the podcast with Griffin Canning, but in a nut shell

Corbin Martin has good stuff, but the control is leaving things right over the middle of the plate and his opponents are not missing right now. This may be his last attempt at maintaining his rotation spot before the Astros look elsewhere in the organization, or maybe from free agency…

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Player Team Start 1 Start 2
Steven Brault PIT ATL @MIL
Wade LeBlanc SEA HOU @LAA
Ryan Carpenter DET TB MIN
Drew Smyly TEX BAL OAK

The Twins and Royals both have TBD 2 start pitchers this week. For the Twins, it looks like Martin Perez or Devin Smeltzer. Perez would fit in the Throw Em If You Got Em and Smeltzer, while intriguing, would fall to Eyes Wide Shut.

The Royals could throw Jakob Junis (Brown Paper Bag) or Glenn Sparkman (Regret This Decision).

With a doubleheader on Saturday, Tampa may have an opener/primary 2 start in there, but I don’t know.

Angels have thrown some 6 man rotations out there, but if they don’t, Felix Pena could get 2 in this week as well, which’d put him in the Throw Em If You Got Em tier.

 

AL EAST 2 Start Days Predicted Start 1 Start 2
BAL Tuesday @TEX @HOU
BOS Tuesday, Sat. Doubleheader @KC TB
NYY Tuesday @TOR @CLE
TB Tuesday, Sat. Doubleheader @DET @BOS
TOR Tuesday NYY ARZ

 

AL CENTRAL 2 Start Days Predicted Start 1 Start 2
CWS X @WSH @KC
CLE Tuesday MIN NYY
DET Tuesday TB MIN
KC Tuesday BOS CWS
MIN Tuesday @CLE @DET

 

AL WEST 2 Start Days Predicted Start 1 Start 2
HOU Monday, Tuesday @SEA BAL
LAA Monday, Tuesday @CHC/OAK SEA
OAK Tuesday, Sat. Doubleheader @LAA @TEX
SEA Monday, Tuesday HOU @LAA
TEX Tuesday, Sat. Doubleheader BAL OAK

 

NL EAST 2 Start Days Predicted Start 1 Start 2
ATL Tuesday @PIT @MIA
MIA Tuesday @MIL ATL
NYM Tuesday SF COL
PHI Monday @SD CIN
WSH Tuesday CWS @SD

 

NL CENTRAL 2 Start Days Predicted Start 1 Start 2
CHC Monday, Tuesday LAA/COL STL
CIN Tuesday @STL @PHI
MIL Tuesday MIA PIT
PIT Tuesday ATL @MIL
STL Tuesday CIN @CHC

 

NL WEST 2 Start Days Predicted Start 1 Start 2
ARZ Monday LAD @TOR
COL Tuesday @CHC @NYM
LAD Monday @ARZ @SF
SD Monday, Tuesday PHI WSH
SF Tuesday @NYM LAD
  1. stevie says:
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    Chase Anderson is listed for Tuesday-Sunday. What’s your tier for him? Home against Mia and Pit.

    • Throw Em If You Got Em

  2. dmax04 says:
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    Points league ROS (big bonus for wins) –

    Canning or Kikuchi

    • ROS, I’d say Kikuchi overall has more points b/c he’ll throw more innings/starts, but I think Canning will produce better while he is starting.

  3. hondo says:
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    Cannings first start was changed like 3 days ago from @CHC to vs OAK at home

    • Thanks for the update. Did the research and put the article in on Friday, so, didn’t have that update at the time.

  4. JB says:
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    Nice research, as always. Question. Does SD still have Paddack on a 5 day rest schedule? He has been slated for a two-start week multiple times this season, only for him to get pushed back every time. Even when he had 5 days rest on a two start week, he missed his 2nd start due to a stiff neck.

    • They’re spacing his starts out from what I can tell. The one time they were going to let him go twice, he did have the injury. He lines up for it this week again, but if they keep him on the long rest, it will be another week he doesn’t give us 2. Haven’t heard anything official how they will handle it so figured I’d rank him as if he gets it.

  5. LenFuego says:
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    I am petrified of throwing Bieber against the Twins and Yankees. He has a three HR against game and a four HR against game in his last four starts. What gives you the confidence to put him high up in the No Doubt category?

    • He’s been really good this season in all but 3 starts. Both starts in Cleveland where he’s got a sub 3 ERA on the season. Even against 2 good offenses, there’s no way I’d be sitting him.

      • LenFuego says:
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        Hmmm. Those are not just good offenses – they are literally the best two road offenses in MLB, the only two averaging over 6 runs per road game. I am probably still going to bite my lip and start him, but oh boy, it makes me nervous.

        • Fair enough. If you wanted to demote him to Pretty…Pretty Good I wouldn’t argue with it, but either way you’re throwing him out there in a 2 start week. Maybe if you have 10 or less teams, I could see being picky, but I’m not worried about throwing him out there.

  6. LenFuego says:
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    Doesn’t Eduardo Rodriguez also have two starts this week because of getting moved back a day? Assuming he does, where would he rank?

    • Does look like ERod gets 2 this week. Throw Em If You Got Em

  7. Chucky says:
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    Ray v LAD and @ Toronto a better bet than ERod @ KC and v TB? Love Ray @Toronto but The LAD on the road in the humidor? Think I’d rather take my chances with ERod. I’m actually starting Joey L v Philly instead of the two start Ray, agree?

    • I likely would start ERod in his 2 match-ups over Ray, but I’d still probably go with Ray over Lucchesi. You get 2 starts, and fwiw, Ray has a 3.32 home ERA this season and a career 2.82 ERA vs the Dodgers who have been a top offense since Ray entered the league.

  8. Ivan Make Basket says:
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    Im gambling on martin. Seattle looks like they need an off day.

    • His stuff is good. Start to start for now, it just depends if he can manage to command it enough not to leave it hanging over the middle of the plate.

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