The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page. Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty. So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three. Math’s been berry, berry good to me! Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
21. Daniel Hudson – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Anibal. I called this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings? Yeah, crazy like a fox!” In 2011, Hudson’s K/9 was 6.85 as he struck out only 169. That seems like the absolute basement and I’m banking on him striking out quite a few more guys in 2012. In Triple-A, he had a K/9 of 10.41 and in 2010 he had 7.93 in the majors. He had the third fastest, um, fastball in the Senior Circuit, but hitters made decent contact with pitches outside of the strike zone. I expect that’ll change in 2012 and he’ll bump up his K-rate by at least 1. To show my love, I almost put him in the top 20 starters. Instead, he’s in an extended tier that started there. I can only give so much love. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.40/1.18/190
22. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ve ranked Zimmermann on the high side, but I was thinking about how it probably won’t matter. Last year everyone and their lunch had an ERA under 3. If that happens again, and I see no reason why it won’t, then there will be dozens of pitchers to own. You’ll probably be able to draft Greinke, Zimmermann and wait seventy picks. I’ll go over more about drafting strategy later. As for Zimmermann, the K-rate will be better this year and if he holds the gains he made with his walk rate, he might just be a top 10 pitcher this year. Yes, the Nats will be good. 2012 Projections: 14-6/3.25/1.15/170
23. Matt Garza – In 2009, Garza had a K/9 of 8.38 for the Rays. I mention this so it doesn’t seem that outlandish to think he can repeat his K/9 from last year of 8.95. Is he as sexy a name as the others in this tier? Nope. Can he be as productive? Maybe more so. I wouldn’t let it worry me too much that Epstein seems absolutely dead set on moving Garza. Shizz happens as Forret Gump invented, don’t let it play too much into your drafting. 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.40/1.25/190
24. Anibal Sanchez – I shocked myself with this ranking. Nearly fell off my Barclay Lounger! Anibal was that good last year? He (she?) was! His K/9 of 9.26 and BB/9 of 2.93 were the best rates of his career. Is there a chance he goes back into the junk drawer this year? I guess, but why? He’ll be 28 years old and entering his third full year, if you exclude his early years when he bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, battling injuries. I love Anibal this year and I’m not sure if that should make me feel uncomfortable because of his gender-confusing first name. I’m gonna type up a manifesto about my Anibal love in the weeks to come. I may even type it up using only the blinks of my eyes to show how dedicated I am. He is the Marlins’ ace. Screw Josh Johnson and the stretcher he rode in on! 2012 Projections: 15-8/3.50/1.24/190
25. Josh Johnson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hanson. I call this tier, “The ‘perts that are taking these guys are puff, puff, puffing; I’m passing.” Josh Johnson and his porn star brother, Gosh, can show up at my house and plead their case for me drafting Johnson, and I will not. Because of injury risk, I’m down on Johnson. Okay, maybe I could’ve reworded that. Someone can tattoo how healthy Johnson will be this year on the inside of my eyelids and I’ll ignore it. I will not read one single “He’s healthier than he’s ever been in his life!” report from Spring Training. Maybe we’ll see each again in 2013. For now, I’m like John Bobbitt and I’m without Johnson. 2012 Projections: 10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP
26. Ian Kennedy – My feelings against Kennedy aren’t quite as extreme as Johnson. He’s just being overdrafted because of his 21 wins from last year. If he had 15 wins, no one would’ve said anything about him not being in the top 20. Who knew there were so many Murray Chasses (Chassi?) out there. He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year. Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid. Will he shat the bed? I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it. He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price. And for all those haters who think I’m stupid for avoiding Kennedy, I go back to the fact there are a gazillion, give or take a million, starters to choose from. If I’m having concerns about one guy, you’ll excuse me if I avoid him and take one of the other gazillion (plus or minus a million) pitchers. 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.12/180
27. Yu Darvish – I already went over my Yu Darvish fantasy. It’s sexy and I know it. 2012 Projections: 14-7/3.60/1.10/190
28. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter is just too flaky for me. One year — 2.89 ERA; another year — 5.78 ERA. What he actually is is (stutterer!) a 3.75 ERA pitcher. What side of the 3.75 ERA bed Beckett wakes up no one knows, except for maybe some country singer no one’s ever heard of. 2012 Projections: 14-9/3.60/1.20/185
29. Ricky Romero – For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — I almost put Romero in the sexy name tier. He seemed to fit in there better than Garza, but when it came down to it, I wanted Garza more than I wanted Romero. Last year, Romero had an ERA of 2.92 but an xFIP of 3.80. Romero — what a joker! His K-rate two of the last three years has been 7.13 and 7.12. Um, they’re okay. Finally, a cool name and an uncanny resemblance to LL Cool J does not make him sexy for fantasy. Sorry, RR Cool Jay. 2012 Projections: 13-12/3.75/1.20/170
30. James Shields – Shields and Beckett are tomato-tomato with a different emphasis. Good Ks, all over the map with their ERAs. What I’m looking for from starters is the most trustworthy names I can find (even if Gallardo and Greinke don’t feel trustworthy). Like a 1800’s soldier who just saw his first gun fired, I just don’t trust Shields. 2012 Projections: 13-11/3.70/1.25/190
31. Tommy Hanson – I felt like mmmdropping Hanson even lower, but settled on him here in a tier where I’m saying others are drafting these guys before me, i.e., I won’t own them, I before E except in Teixeira, I hope everyone can follow to not draft Hanson. Think Hanson can be a Cy Young-type for many years, but I don’t trust his shoulder to be right this year. I doubt 200 regular season innings is going to improve that. 2012 Projections: 9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP
32. Matt Moore – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Luebke. I call this tier, “Yummo!” I already went over my Matt Moore fantasy. I wrote it while buying a Pacman-shaped potato chip on eBay. As for Friedman saying Moore is going to get a full season, I’ll believe it when I see it. ZiPS is giving him 140 IP, others are giving him 160… I can’t bring myself to go above 150. He still doesn’t have a full season under his belt yet in the majors. Too many things can go wrong. I will say if I gave him 180 IP, I’d raise the ERA projections about .20, WHIP about .02, Wins (3) and Ks (20). 2012 Projections: 10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings
33. Max Scherzer – I already went over my Max Scherzer 2012 fantasy. There’s lots of love in that post. If you read it in the dark, you can almost feel my erection. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.70/1.30/195
34. Ubaldo Jimenez – Look at me giving Ubaldo another chance. I’m one forgiving ess oh bee (except when it comes to Brian Bonsall ruining Family Ties). Last year Ubaldo held his K-rate from his terrific season in 2010, but just had a bit of crappy luck. I don’t expect a sub-3 ERA, but he’s also not the 4.68 ERA guy he was last year. If I’m right, this is good news for all the Colorado-area parents that named their kids after Ubaldo back in 2010. The bad news, they have to move to Cleveland. 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.27/190
35. Shaun Marcum – Member when March Grey said Marcum would start the 2011 All-Star Game? What a dog-faced fool! March Grey, “There’s more of me in you than you care to admit! All of you!” Look at you grandstanding like you’re Al Pacino. March Grey, “Hoo-ah!” Marcum didn’t take a step forward last year like I thought he might with the move to the NL, but he still performed admirably and if he has even the slightest of gains, he’ll have a great year. If he just repeats last year, it’s still solid. 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.17/160
36. Brandon Beachy – Here’s a guy that could jump to the top 10 for next year or bomb and become a sleeper for 2013. If he can turn in 170 innings with his 10+ K/9, you’re looking at a pitcher that is going to exceed this ranking by a lot. If something sophomore slumpy happens, then you’re gonna have a wasted draft pick on your virtual hands. Of course, his season may not be that cut and dry and be somewhere between those two predictions. But what fun is that? (BTW, there’s no reason to ask why Beachy is below other guys that have worse projections. Beachy has more risk because of the lack of track record, hence the ranking.) 2012 Projections: 12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings
37. Brandon Morrow – I already wrote a Brandon Morrow 2012 fantasy sleeper post. A real snoozer in the inverse. 2012 Projections: 13-9/3.85/1.28/210
38. Cory Luebke – Out first appearance of a Hodgepadre in the starter rankings. I can’t believe I haven’t written a sleeper post on Luebke yet, but that’ll all change after I fill my Adderall prescription. Last year, Luebke had a K-rate of 9.92 and a xFIP of 3.02. You need more? You shouldn’t. But fine, for you anything! He can control his walks to the tune of under a 2 BB/9, as he did in the minors. He’s only 26 years old (as of this writing) and he pitches in Petco. When I say giddy, you say up. Giddy… Up! Giddy… Up! P. Diddy… Up! Fooled you. 2012 Projections: 9-8/3.25/1.09/170
39. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.” I’ve never been a fan of Carpenter. His Ks are solid, his ERAs are solid, his WHIPs are solid. My dislike is unwarranted, basically. Right? Or not right? He’s only topped 200 Ks once in his career and that was back in 2005 when he threw 241 2/3 innings. Anyone who owned him last year when he was 1-7 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP as of June 17th, probably won’t go near him this year either. We can be friends. Wait by your phone, I’ll call you. 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.25/165
40. Johnny Cueto – I’ve liked Cueto since he emerged on the scene. Liked him even more when he Zabka’d LaRue. We’re gonna take a break this year. His peripherals last year were a mess. 6 K/9, 3.90 xFIP, crazy low BABIP… Crouching Cueto, Hidden Dragon Breath Stats. 2012 Projections: 11-6/3.80/1.25/130
