After the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top something-something’s? Cute, random italicized voice.  We have the top 40 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2011 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  Actually, when I point it out, it gets more clerical.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball:

21. Jacoby Ellsbury – This is a continuation of the last tier in the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Tabata.  Jacoby should put the nickname D’Ellsbury behind him and bounce back, but he also might be bouncing back from the bottom of the lineup.  As Rico Petrocelli might say, “That’s a not so nice.”  Be careful to not pay top dollar for SAGNOF.  2011 Projections:  90/7/70/.290/45

22. Brett Gardner – He’s that much worse than Ellsbury?  Rhetorical!  I’ve taken part in 2 1/2 mocks so far — really three, but I was kinda hungover during one, so we’ll say it’s half (actually, I am saying it and I’m not we but whatever)  and Gardner has gone near the end of the draft.  What gives?  Didn’t he have a much better year than Ellsbury?  Sure, Ellsbury can be better, but how much better than Gardner?  Oh, and Gardner don’t take no jive from no Western Union messengers.  2011 Projections:  105/7/55/.270/45

23. Jose Tabata – I kinda love Tabata.  I’m having a hard time separating him from Ellsbury and Gardner when you remove their names and just look at their stats.  Okay, all of their stats but their Runs.  But Ellsbury’s an injury risk and Gardner’s a “Are they playing him and where are they batting him in the order?” risk.  At least we know Tabata will play.  I mean, who else are they going to play?  The Pirates will run him out there every game at the top of the order assuming he’s healthy.  And the Pirates offense could surprise.  There, I said it!  2011 Projections:  90/6/40/.280/40

24. Colby Rasmus – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stubbs.  I call this tier, “I’m enthused about these guys, but what happened to all of the outfielders that are a lock for big numbers?  Seriously, WTF?”  I enjoy a 25/15 outfielder like Rasmus just as much as the next man, woman or dwarf, but where’s the forty home run outfielders?  Where’s the guys that can go 30/30?  As mentioned before, I wish to implement a rule that allows one position each year to use steroids.  The fans won’t know which position it is and then they can have fun guessing.  This year, I’d let outfielders do the honors.  Oh, and not only is Rasmus iffy for 25/15 but there’s a good chance La Russa poisons his oatmeal.  2011 Projections:  95/25/80/.265/15

25. Jay Bruce – I kinda like how Jay Bruce continues to move up the fantasy rankings each year even though he’s still yet to put up a huge season.  People are just dying to make him a first round draft pick.  He hits 35 homers and steals 10 bases and he’ll be there.  The thing is, he can do it.  Oh, man, I’m just as guilty as anyone.  2011 Projections:  85/32/100/.270/7

26. Mike Stanton – Bill James has Stanton down for 38 homers.  You have to appreciate the crazy fanboy aspect to it.  I picture Bill James cutting articles of Stanton out of magazines while watching Big Love and squealing when Harry Dean Stanton appears.  Stanton IS (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) capable of 38 homers, which does make him exciting, but don’t put it in the bag until it’s paid for.  (Also, went over my 2011 Mike Stanton fantasy already.)  2011 Projections:  70/32/80/.250/7

27. Curtis Granderson – His splits aren’t making the first team cheer squad.  Probably my first ranking that I’m really not comfortable with but what are you gonna do with a potential 25+ homer, 15+ steal guy?  If you own him, you’re probably gonna need a bench outfielder to slot in when Grandy is either on the Yanks bench or just facing a lefty.  Even if you sit him vs. lefties, you’re going to get solid production from him.  2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.260/15

28. Adam Lind – I went over Lind in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.  (Note:  He only has 16 games in the outfield.)

29. Grady Sizemore – *Grey shrugs*  That’s me answering your pregunta about whether or not Sizemore will be healthy.  He’ll only be 28 years old for the majority of the 2011 season.  It’s not like he’s old like, say, Carlos Belchran.  Sizemore should have some left in the tank if his gams and mollywhoppers are at a 100%.  If I have one single question mark in the first few rounds of my draft, I wouldn’t touch Sizemore.  If I’m pretty confident with the guys I take up front, then I could see gambling on him.  2011 Projections:  90/18/65/.270/22

30. Drew Stubbs – I already sopped up my Stubbs fantasy with a ShamWow.  I almost put Stubbs up above Victorino in the top 20 outfielders.  Oh em gee, right?  I kinda love him, but like my Native American friends I have some reservations.  If Dusty Baker only gives Stubbs 250 ABs, it wouldn’t surprise me at all.  Why?  Because Dusty’s effin’ loco.  If Stubbs hits .210, it also wouldn’t surprise me.  If Baker’s crazy tendencies and Stubbs’ average break right, Stubbs could be a top ten outfielder.  2011 Projections:  95/18/65/.260/32

31. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from Hart until Huff.  I call this tier, “You’re paying for a career year and you should avoid these guys unless they fall in drafts.”  Let’s see, Hart’s strikeouts went up, his walks went down and his HR/FB% was abnormal.  Sounds terrific.  Maybe you, Hart and Bautista can have a foursome with 1996 Brady Anderson.  You know you like sideburns.  2011 Projections:  70/21/80/.260/10

32. Vernon Wells – Wells’ year wasn’t exactly a career year.  He’s had better.  But that was a long time ago.  Also, his underlying stats aren’t screaming that he can’t repeat his year.  But II, The Return of But:  he’s way too fragile (hey, he’s Italian!).  I wouldn’t draft Wells with your team.  Ain’t worth the headache.  Oh, and the move to the Angels does nothing to his value.  2011 Projections:  60/21/70/.280/5

33. Ben Zobrist – Zobrist also didn’t have a career year last year.  You’re paying for his 2009 career year.  Zobrist’s projections can be found at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  Go there, Google translate it to French and learn a new language.

34. Aubrey Huff – I’m guessing Huff’s projections are in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  WILD F**KING GUESS!!!  Sorry, lost my shizz there for a second.

35. Torii Hunter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Lee. I call this tier, “Old is as old does.”  If you draft any of the guys in this tier, you might be over the age of fifty and started your draft prep an hour before your draft.  Hey, I’m not judging.  Cust kayin’.  For those who like word puzzles –> Are E: Double I: Eh.  Hunter’ll get you 18-22 homers and 8-12 steals.  Best thing you can hope for is a hot April and you flip him on May 1st for a slow starting Alexei Ramirez.  2011 Projections:  70/20/85/.280/10

36. Carlos Beltran – Some extra risk involved with this schmohawk but he’ll probably put up the same numbers as Torii Hunter.  That’s more an indictment of Hunter than anything.  Or maybe it’s indicting both on charges of name value meaning more than actual value.  2011 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/10

36 1/2. Vladimir Guerrero – He gets a half because he won’t have outfield eligibility in all leagues. (Only 19 games.  Just missing for ESPN, CBS and leagues that require players to have two knees.)  I think Vlad can be productive again when he’s healthy.  Just don’t know if I’d count on him playing in another 150+ games like last year.  DH, or no DH.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.295/5

37. Manny Ramirez – I don’t believe he has 30 homers left in his bat over the course of a full season.  He shouldn’t kill you in the other categories when he’s on the field.  Basically, Nick Swisher with a better average and more interesting hair.  The move to the Rays does nothing to his value, unless he hears where he has to play home games, tries to squeeze himself into an orange juice carton and hurts himself. 2011 Projections:  75/22/85/.300

38. Bobby Abreu – If you think this last tier and a half is boring as dog balls, the top 60 outfielders post is better.  You have my guarantee!  If not, I will refund your money!* (*Offer only good if you didn’t pay any money to me and I don’t have to refund you anything.)  2011 Projections:  80/15/70/.280/17

39. Nick Swisher – He was crazy lucky with his balls batted into play so he just started swinging at everything within ten inches of the plate.  The amount of balls he swung at outside the strike zone went from 17.3% in 2009 to 25.7% last year.  A really terrible sign, but assuming Swish finds his old plate discipline he should be fine.  If he doesn’t, he might hit .220.  2011 Projections:  80/27/90/.250

40. Carlos Lee – Went over Carlos Lee’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

40 1/8. Juan Pierre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of this post.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  As for Pierre, see tier name for further explanation.  BTW, Juan Pierre promised to hit his one homer this year on your birthday.  2011 Projections:  85/1/35/.300/50

40 1/4. Peter Bourjos – I have a Bourjos sleeper post already written, but haven’t posted it yet.  See ya this afternoon!  2011 Projections:  70/10/55/.255/30

40 1/2. Michael Bourn – I had a dream where Michael Bourn was drafting a fantasy team and his outfield consisted of Nyjer Morgan, Juan Pierre and himself.  Oh, Michael.  2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.265/45

40 3/4. Nyjer Morgan – Nyjer Morgan had a similar dream but he drafted the girl from Precious, Oprah and Camryn Manheim.  Oh, Nyjer!  2011 Projections:  70/2/30/.260/40

40 7/8. Austin Jackson – Not exactly straight SAGNOF if that’s what you’re into sniffing, but Jackson’s also due for a regression on last year’s average and he doesn’t give that much more than steals.  You say tomato, I say the same but with a different emphasis.  2011 Projections:  85/5/40/.265/30

40 7/8 and a half. Rajai Davis – Um, steals?  2011 Projections:  70/4/35/.290/40

40 7/8 and seven-eighths. Scott Podsednik – If there’s a “Ballplayer’s Wife Is Hot” category in your league, you might want to reach for Podsednik.  2011 Projections:  60/3/25/.290/30

 
  1. DrEasy says:
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    Apparently the Jays are interested in signing Podesdnik (Alex Anthopoulos seems to have a speed fetish), and if that happens we might witness a SAGNOF platoon of Pods + Rajai… In any case I still hope the Jays sign a proper hitter (i.e., not Pods) that could push Rajai to the bench, but which would hurt his fantasy value, obviously.

  2. AJ says:
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    No Pagan at 40 15/16?

  3. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    Merci beaucoup pour les projections.

  4. Ned Shakeshaft says:
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    You think Pods’ wife yells, ‘SAGNOF! SAGNOF!’ when they’re bangin’?

  5. Rabbit says:
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    So for potential 30 HR guys in this tier who got Bruce and Stanton and that’s it? Again emphasizing the thinness (thinosity?) of the OF position this year. It’s tempting to go for power by drafting three top guys at the 1B, 3B _and_ CI positions and go SAGNOF, avg and Runs in my OF positions.

  6. Mets fan says:
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    Grey no pacman jones?

  7. Cain Fan says:
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    Grey,

    As you have mentioned throughout these rankings, it seems like offense is much thinner than normal (aside from catcher, which is weird in itself). How will this affect your drafting strategy compared to years past, even less focus on pitching? Could you have a piece on the “new days” of fantasy baseball? Gracias!

  8. Swagger Jackers says:
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    Drafting outfielders has sucked in mock drafts so far. After you miss a few elite options to fill out your infield instead, everything turns into garbage and you’re forced to reach for Dunn or Stanton to get any power.

  9. BKK says:
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    I love how the top 40 turns into the top 48. It’s like going to McD’s and saying “Super size me”!

  10. camram003 says:
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    could you clarify why you would draft tabata over bruce and stanton, especially since power is scarce? and you can get cheap steals later.

  11. Eddy says:
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    Hmm, I was surprised to see Tabata this high up.

    Damn it, Grey, this means I’m no longer going to get him post-15th round in razzmocks anymore!

  12. dave says:
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    Peter Bourjos ? Really Grey? That guy ass raped my team every chance he got.

  13. GopherDay says:
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    Wow, I’m suprised to see no Delmon…Seems that he would have more value than pretty much Vernon Wells on down. Is he a player you don’t like?

  14. Tom says:
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    Grey no love for Jason Bay – i would think he would at least be in the top 40 no?

  15. LMack says:
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    Surprised to see you slip Swisher and Lee over Carlos Quentin. He put up the lines you projected from both of them in 527 PAs last year. I remember 2010 Grey liking CQ, finally giving up in him because he can’t stay on the field?

  16. Spartacus says:
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    Hey Grey et al,

    Wanted to get a few feedback opinion on a great idea my commish came up with in our keeper league.

    Owners always complain about unfair trades in keeper leagues especially ones with contracts, minor keepers etc… and what to do about them.

    My commish came up with an idea for letting each owner have one challenge per season. If the owner throws the “challenge flag” the trade in question goes up for a vote. But win or lose on the challenge, the owner can only challenge once per season.

    This way each owner feels some way to correct a bad trade and it wont clog our emails with votes on every trade that comes through.

    What do you guys think?

    Rgds,

    Sparty

  17. pogotheostrich says:
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    It seems early to be picking up burners without any other skills.
    I’m curious where Markakis falls because I probably take him over any of the last 10 OF listed.

  18. kwak says:
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    Gotta join the chorus. No love for Delmon?!?

  19. i like how grey throws in entire tiers of old dudes based on where they’re likely to get drafted by other people instead of where he actually likes them and then tells you not to draft them. i think it’s just his way of forcing you guys to actually read the blurbs.

  20. polczek5 says:
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    was that a Christmas Story allusion? Awesome!

  21. polczek5 says:
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    whoa, deja vu. i could of sworn i’d read that Swisher blurb somewhere…

  22. Stephen says:
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    @Eddy: shhhhhh, Keep the Craig Kimbrel ADP low so we can all draft him.

  23. thegeniusking says:
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    Whole list is SAGNOF. Blech. Fantasy must have been so much more fun in the early aughts.

  24. Wilsonian says:
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    What do you think of Dom Dom and Desmond? Are they in the top 60? I’m thinking about targeting them soon in my draft as most of these foos are already

  25. tom thumb says:
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    I feel like people don’t get it. Just because someone is ranked higher doesn’t mean he is liked more. CarGo is a perfect example. Obviously he is ranked much higher but the value in someone like Delmon is much better

  26. Mets fan says:
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    Grey who do you think could be this years cargo?

  27. Jackie says:
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    Keeper question:

    5×5, 12 team mixed league ($260).

    Keeping Votto for $1 and Stanton for $1.

    Who do I keep from:

    Santana: $1
    Weeks: $4
    Neil Walker: $1
    Eric Young: $1
    Travis Snider: $1
    LaRoche $6

    Thinking Weeks. Thoughts?

  28. Mets fan says:
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    I like him if he could put togther some consistEncy..I like Adam jones alot this yearhe really showed his talent after they hired showalter what’s his current adp at mdc?

  29. THE BEAST says:
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    Grey:
    Obviously you’re getting some slight backlash from your loyal followers about guys we both know you like more, we like more, and everyone likes more (Delmon / Pagan / Quentin / etc.)…

    And I know you’ve explained that a bunch of the old-timers and SAGNOFs are in a tier that you don’t necessarliy like and are essentially ‘below’ the aforementioned guys you do, so why not save yourself the explanation and actually put them in their rightful place in a tier above wastes o’ time like Beltran, Bourjos, etc.

    If you personally wouldn’t draft Beltran above Delmon, and you know your like-minded contingent won’t either, doesn’t that dictate the need for a more respectable seeding and subsequently a lower heart rate for you and us both? After all, this is YOUR (our) blog, and we both know in your heart where guys belong and where they don’t. We don’t cater to the (inferior) masses. They can draft Torii Hunter all they want.

    Cust Kayin’….

  30. tom thumb says:
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    @wilsonian
    I think you missed my point. Even though a Guy is lower on the list doesn’t mean grey doesn’t like him or he isn’t great value. Quite the contrary. I used the cargo example. Just Cuzco he will outperform a lot of guys ( and thus is ranked higher) doesn’t mean he is more well-liked than someone like Bruce who returns great value. Does that make sense?

  31. The Krukker says:
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    Swing Tabata batta swing?

  32. Sir Larry says:
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    Grey, more suitable allegory for the players between 40-41:

    – SAGNOF Bargain Bin…”Fractional Sale! All items 1/8th off (and below)”, or
    – The plush toy coin-op arcady game where you use the clamp to grab an outfielder…”Snag a SAGNOF. Everyone’s a winner!”

  33. LMack says:
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    I wasn’t trying to critique the method, Grey. I dig it. Keep on doing you.

  34. THE BEAST says:
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    Fair enough Grey, I hear ya.

    Jay came in right after me with a similar post in regards to confusing your actual, literal rankings, and creating a post that is more enjoyable to read by mixing in schmohawks intermittently.

    You the Man hombre, no doubt, and I can almost literally see the rock and the hard spot you are stuck between on this issue.

    I suppose the main downside is for those (newer) readers that aren’t as familiar with your musings, the contradiction in what you’re saying and how you’re ranking can be off-putting when it comes to trying to locate clear, concise information for draft material. Sucks to be them.

    Regardless, keep up the solid work brotha…. The dead horse is battered enough

  35. Neil says:
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    The problem with BPA and rankings is that they go off the rails so quickly. Experts can’t agree on a top 5, let alone a top 50 or top 100. There really is very little difference between huge clusters of players (e.g. #50 to #75, #75 to #125, etc.).

  36. Big Mike says:
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    @Grey,

    First, I still love the columns, and the fact that you post new stuff all winter, unlike most everyone else. Thanks, man!

    Second, keeper league question: I’m in an odd, 12 man, 7X6 keeper league (5X5 plus obp, slg, holds). Snake draft, goes 300 players deep. We can keep up to 8 for up to four years, but get compensatory picks at the end of Round 1 if we keep only 7. So basically, anyone who you would expect to be gone by your compensatory pick would be kept. I’m sitting on six definite keepers: Teix, Reyes, Posey, Cruz, Liriano, Latos. For the last 1-2 slots, I’ve got Krispie & Delmon Young, and Moobs Butler. We use LF/CF/RF, so keeping the Young-sters would give me all three OF slots filled. Moobs would be my IF/UT, but he’s hitting the long ball in 2011, won’t he?

    Who gets tossed back?

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