All the final 2021 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2021 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for next year (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t know. Not entirely. Entirely. Like when you had a knee replacement, this is a recap! To recapitulate the recap, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. We’re (me’re) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2021 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Max Scherzer – You know these first two guys, so I’m gonna run roughshod over some of these starters talking about fantasy pitchers in general, then will come back to the same points another 15+ times in this post. Are. Dot dot dot. You. Dot dot dot. READY!? There are 15 of the top 20 starters that went after the top 15 starters were off the board. 15 of 20! Starters are about as reliable as a 1979 Betamax. Why am I pointing out after the top 15? Because I tell all youse to draft a starter after about 15 are off the board or the top 45 overall. The top ten starters by ADP this year were deGrom, Cole, Bieber, Bauer, Yu, Giolito, Buehler, Nola, Max and Castillo. Three were in the top 10 at the end of the year. Even outfielders, which were pretty horrific this year, had five of ten. In the overall top 20, starters were easily the worst position to return investment with four of six being bad, and the two that “returned” investment were Cole and deGrom, one of which didn’t pitch after the All-Star break, and missed starts before it. To put Gerrit Cole’s season into context. He was ranked around the same place in my rankings as Machado, and returned slightly less value. Think about what a disappointment Machado felt like. Cole was a much bigger disappointment because he was actually drafted before I ranked him, and he was one of the good starters! Continued in next blurb. Preseason Rank #10, 2021 Projections: 12-6/3.47/1.12/237 in 174 IP, Final Numbers: 15-4/2.46/0.86/236 in 179 1/3 IP
2. Walker Buehler – Did starters we liked end up in the top 20 starters? Yes, clearly, which makes what I say even more important: you can draft five starters from after the top 40 starters are off the board and do fine. Incredibly, it’s like this every single year and no one tells you this. I’m not exaggerating. The names are right in front of your eyes. You wanted Gausman, Peralta, Lynn, Musgrove, and Bassitt? Funny, so did I and I wrote sleeper posts for Bassitt, and Gausman, and explicitly said draft Lynn, Musgrove and Peralta. Did I miss on Wainwright, Fried, Rodon, Robbie Ray and Wheeler? 100%. It didn’t matter because you could’ve easily drafted plenty of these other guys; pitchers I told you to draft. Preseason Rank #7, 2021 Projections: 14-5/3.07/1.00/188, Final Numbers: 16-4/2.47/0.97/212 in 207 2/3 IP
3. Julio Urias – Irrelevant for fantasy, but can we talk about how the 1st three starters this year were from the Dodgers? No wonder they won 105 games and had two of the most disappointing hitter seasons in Cody Belanger and Mookie Betts. Okay, back to talking about pitchers in the abstract, looking at me ranking Urias 27th overall is neither here nor there. It means nothing. What means something is when I told you to draft Urias in every league. In most of my leagues, I did fine with my pitching, even though I didn’t draft pitching high, but you can’t tell me I did any worse at pitching than guys who drafted starters early. I liked Jesus Luzardo, who sucked, but that’s much better than the people who drafted Bieber? At least I didn’t need a top 12 overall pick to get Luzardo. Preseason Rank #27, 2021 Projections: 11-5/3.41/1.10/131 in 139 IP, Final Numbers: 20-3/2.96/1.02/195 in 185 2/3 IP
4. Zack Wheeler – Was way off on Wheeler. Again, his ranking means nothing, what means something is when I told people to avoid him. So, what went wrong in my process? His 2020 wasn’t indicative of anything. His K/9 from 2019 to this year: 9, 6.7, 10.4. Props to you if you saw that coming. I didn’t. Think if anyone’s being honest, they’d say they didn’t see it coming either. Preseason Rank #35, 2021 Projections: 13-8/3.87/1.12/161 in 182 IP, Final Numbers: 14-10/2.78/1.01/247 in 213 1/3 IP
5. Corbin Burnes – I put Burnes in a tier to draft, but as I said back in the preseason, it was all lip service. I loved Burnes, but I didn’t rank him high enough to actually draft him. My big problem with him was his innings from 2020 to 2021, and how many he could throw this year. It clearly wasn’t a huge issue. What I didn’t factor in enough in general was something that’s obvious in retrospect. I knew pitchers would be throttled, they couldn’t throw 200+ IP, and hardly any did. What I didn’t factor in is if you have everyone throw 170 IP, then a guy like Burnes throwing 167 IP is very valuable. Burnes throwing 167 IP isn’t as valuable only if there were a ton of guys throwing 200 IP, and that wasn’t the case. Preseason Rank #28, 2021 Projections: 8-8/3.06/1.19/167 in 124 IP, Final Numbers: 11-5/2.43/0.94/234 in 167 IP
6. Gerrit Cole – Wrote a Gerrit Cole schmohawk post in the preseason, saying, “(Sticky stuff) isn’t a non-issue for Gerrit Cole. Suppose he can’t get his Bubba-patented sticky substance, does that affect him? What if it already has started affecting him?” And that’s me predicting May through September’s storyline for Cole! So, was he overrated? He’s not as flashy as my schmohawk pick, Dom Smith, who clearly was a bust. But Cole was going in the top 5 picks overall, and drafted 1st overall in a ton of leagues, and my projections for him were actually better than he did, so, yeah, he was a schmohawk. Finally, Gerrit Cole was the top AL starter, and he was the 36th best overall player. Um, gross. Preseason Rank #2, 2021 Projections: 16-6/2.77/0.94/266 in 205 IP, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.23/1.06/243 in 181 1/3 IP
7. Robbie Ray – My preseason rankings are as easy as clicking the link at the top of the page that says rankings so there’s no use in lying. You couldn’t have given Robbie Ray to me. If you would’ve told me I’d be wearing skinny jeans by July walking around my house, screaming, “I’m my Blue Jay of happiness!” I wouldn’t have believe you. If you would’ve told me Ray was going to be a top 10 starter in March, I would’ve asked for your address, and sent some white-jacketed healthcare workers to your house. Incredibly, the only thing he needed for any of this to happen was increased command. But going from a 7.8 BB/9 to 2.5 BB/9 seemed like a mighty tall ask. Preseason Rank #115, 2021 Projections: 8-10/4.58/1.43/203 in 164 IP, Final Numbers: 13-7/2.84/1.05/248 in 193 1/3 IP
8. Kevin Gausman – He was basically my number one starter to make sure you get on every team, and I wrote a sleeper, and he was in my “starters to target” and I drafted him everywhere I could, so, yeah, I liked Gausman. Only thing I truly missed on with him was how many IP he could throw, but that was especially hard across the league. Preseason Rank #29, 2021 Projections: 10-9/3.49/1.09/188 in 154 IP, Final Numbers: 14-6/2.81/1.04/227 in 192 IP
9. Adam Wainwright – Okay, his year was ridiculous, and that’s coming from someone who thinks he’s a Hall of Famer — not 1st ballot, but he should be in. I say all this so when I undercut his 2021, you know it’s not from a place of hate. He is being so propped up in the Player Rater by his wins that if you give him Burnes’s wins, he becomes about as valuable as Bassit, which makes sense with his K/9. Oh, still great, but this top 10 ranking is a little goofy. Preseason Rank #117, 2021 Projections: 9-10/4.31/1.40/132 in 159 IP, Final Numbers: 17-7/3.05/1.06/174 in 206 1/3 IP
10. Carlos Rodon – Haha:
Just absolutely killing it. Killing it as in “smarts.” Not a great look there from the Fantasy Master Lothario (don’t abbreviate it!). Okay, now’s when I defend myself. Rodon’s ADP was 450th overall. I rank up to 500-ish, so I missed on him, but everyone missed on him. Except Dave S. apparently. Did I correct the mistake? On April 15th, I said, “The stuff, as they say, is there, so, yes, I’d pick him up in all leagues just to see if this isn’t a complete fluke.” And that’s me quoting me! I don’t tell you to pick up everyone in all leagues. I corrected course two weeks in when he was still available in 85% of leagues. He’s definitely not “very terrible.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-5/2.37/0.96/185 in 132 2/3 IP
11. Charlie Morton – I told you to draft Morton, and liked him a lot, but, whoa, was I off on his projected IP. I way overestimated the affect of 2020 on him. Preseason Rank #52, 2021 Projections: 9-6/3.84/1.16/128 in 118 IP, Final Numbers: 14-6/3.34/1.04/216 in 185 2/3 IP
12. Brandon Woodruff – Nailed his preseason ranking and it is merely luck if a guy ends up ranked 12th overall here and was 12th in the preseason. I’m not being modest. Trust me, I’m not modest. As I keep saying, my starter rankings are more like “Draft a guy from these five starters” and “Not from these five.” I did want to draft Woodruff, but was I higher than his ADP? Close, but nah. Preseason Rank #12, 2021 Projections: 11-5/3.12/1.01/189 in 154 IP, Final Numbers: 9-10/2.56/0.96/211 in 179 1/3 IP
13. Jacob deGrom – He only had 92 IP. I will now cackle for four hours. Look at his stats. He had a double nickel WHIP. What, and I will finish this thought after proper emphasis, the eff? Is that real? His ERA was 1.08. His numbers look like a reliever that is in the running for the Cy. Give him the saves’ fantasy value ($14.5) that Liam Hendriks got, and deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball by $4 over Scherzer. That is insane. Oh, I wasn’t drafting him, but still, I can appreciate it. Also, that reminds me of something, last year Fantasy Pros ranked my starter rankings the best, and that’s s wildly ridiculous because I don’t even rank how I’d draft, which everyone knows who’s read my starter rankings. For unstints, I ranked deGrom after Cole this preseason, which was nuts, but it would seem smart now out of context, except I didn’t do it for “drafting” I did it to tell you who “not” to draft. Preseason Rank #3, 2021 Projections: 16-4/2.51/0.95/244 in 193 IP, Final Numbers: 7-2/1.08/0.55/146 in 92 IP
14. Freddy Peralta – I said early in the season, “Freddy Peralta is an ace, aside from his walks. If he can lower his walk rate, he’s a top five starter. Right now, he’s roughly a top 15 starter.” And that’s me quoting me! In March, I said, “(FreddyKBB) will start the year in the rotation. It had been so long since we heard any good news, I had forgot what it sounds like. This right here is what it sounds like.” And that’s me pointing out once again I loved FreddyKBB! I drafted him in Tout, in my RCL and in my NFBC leagues. I loved him so much, and he did as expected. Muah! Preseason Rank #69, 2021 Projections: 8-4/3.77/1.21/151 in 107 IP, Final Numbers: 10-5/2.81/0.97/195 in 144 1/3 IP
15. Jose Berrios – At one point this year, I said something after a particularly rough outing about Berrios, you just have to leave him in your lineup and he’ll be worth it at the end of the season. And that’s me paraphrasing me! Starters weren’t good this year, but if you had 190+ IP, it would be hard to not be at least somewhat valuable. The crazy thing is Berrios’s year-end stats were much better than “somewhat.” Well, not crazy crazy, like Robert Durst admitting to murder on an HBO documentary, then getting life sentence, then it seems like almost immediately he’s about to die. Preseason Rank #25, 2021 Projections: 13-7/3.76/1.19/196 in 191 IP, Final Numbers: 12-9/3.52/1.06/204 in 192 IP
16. Joe Musgrove – If someone’s momma is named Musgrove, and you want to insult them, you say, “Joe Musgrove?” “Joe Mama Joe Musgrove?” Hmm, how’s that work? I need to do yoga with Donkey Teeth to find the answer. The biggest surprise for me with Musgrove is his age. He’s 28?! He’s about to rattle off five consecutive productive seasons, huh? Preseason Rank #44, 2021 Projections: 11-9/3.81/1.23/161 in 152 IP, Final Numbers: 11-9/3.18/1.08/203 in 181 1/3 IP
17. Lance Lynn – Speaking of Donkey Teeth, that clown called me out for not drafting enough pitching in a league, when I took Lance Lynn in the 5th round of the draft and he took Blake Snell in the 2nd round. I’m gonna be on my deathbed still talking about that. If Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind was real, I’d tell them to take everything out but that! Preseason Rank #16, 2021 Projections: 15-8/3.61/1.11/212 in 204 IP, Final Numbers: 11-6/2.69/1.07/176 in 157 IP
18. Max Fried – As I mentioned in the Buehler blurb, I might be close on Fried’s projections and ranking, but I was avoiding him in the preseason, so it’s irrelevant. Do other people tell you stuff like this? I haven’t ready any other fantasy content in like 10 years, so I don’t copy anyone, but it feels like it’s pointless if someone says, “I’d draft all 120 of these starters.” Because, no, they wouldn’t. Every person I know is “out” or “in” on a guy. Maybe I’ll do an addendum to my rankings next year where I give you 50 guys I would draft. Not 50 starters, but 50 guys across all positions. Preseason Rank #20, 2021 Projections: 14-7/3.64/1.22/164 in 171 IP, Final Numbers: 14-7/3.04/1.09/158 in 165 2/3 IP
19. Frankie Montas – All the starters in this top 20 have more in common than past top 20 rankings. Any ideas? Think about it. Okay, I’ll just tell you! All these starters were on winning teams. deGrom, I guess you can exclude, but when he was pitching for the Mets, they were still good. So, chicken or the egg with a good team? Gonna say chicken, because if the team isn’t good, then no wins and it’s hard to be a top 20 starter without wins. Think about that. Wins, something almost totally out of a pitcher’s hands, is propelling a lot of value. Remind me again how pitchers should be drafted high. It’s so dumb when you really stop to think about it. The top 20 3rd basemen had nothing to do with team wins. Hitters who can actively change their value vs. pitchers who need others to give them value, and people are saying draft starters first. That makes no common sense, and no starters give you saves, so there’s no five category starters, except the 9-category Ohtani, who will be along in the top 40 starters. Preseason Rank #48, 2021 Projections: 9-11/3.91/1.21/148 in 142 IP, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.37/1.18/207 in 187 IP
20. Chris Bassitt – Clearly, I can talk about starters and starters’ strategy all day, so this post is running long. Chris Bassitt’s blurb will amount to: He was a top 20 starter season, even after missing six weeks, and I gave you a preseason sleeper post on him. You’re welcome. Preseason Rank #40, 2021 Projections: 12-8/3.49/1.18/156 in 162 IP, Final Numbers: 12-4/3.15/1.06/159 in 157 1/3 IP
