How many people have driven halfway to the hospital thinking they’re dying only to realize if they go to the hospital they really will die, then pulled over into the shoulder and wept? No one? Wow, brave souls. Listen, if it’s not meant for sobbing into it, it shouldn’t be called a shoulder. That’s all I have to say on that. So, I’ve already given you updated 100-games-played projections in my 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, but this, here, this thing you’re reading here, this is some thoughts on specific shortstops whose value could change based on a shortened season — shortenstopped season? Hmm, needs work. I’ve already done Corona timeline updates for the 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and catchers. The top 20 shortstops for 2020 fantasy baseball were updated with new projections for a 100-game season. Anyway, here’s thoughts on the top 20 shortstops for 2020 fantasy baseball with the new Corona timeline:
7. Javier Baez – Before everyone falls out of their seat screaming, “But I drafted him already! Don’t you dare change his ranking now!” There’s no change for Baez. Just wanted to briefly discuss his new projections: 64/19/67/.286/4 in 366 ABs or, if you prefer our Steamer hitter projections: 58/21/62/.273/9 in 374 ABs. Actually, I prefer Steamer’s projections too. That would be sweet for my team where I drafted Baez. Either way, his steals are what I wanted to talk about. five steals difference between those two projections seem like no big deal, but imagine there’s about 1,000 guys who are 5-foot, six and three-quarters inches like yours truly. We’re told to line up by height (this is not a recurring nightmare from my elementary school days or anything). With all the extremely average height men and not-at-all-short sexpots standing there, it’s hard to tell who is taller. So, we start judging on hair, and my hair is glorious and pompadour’d up nice and high so I’m at the front of the line. That’s what this season could be like with steals. Aside from some pituitary gland cases like Mondesi or Treat Urner, everyone is going to be 5-foot, six and three-quarters inches tall with speed. So, Baez’s five steals difference could be huge. Therefore, ergo, vis-a-vie, is Baez more of a 4-steal guy or 9-steal guy? Well, that’s the thing, I’m not sure we know. In a short number of games, a guy like Baez could steal, say, six bags in one series (and not just if all teams just play split-squad games and he gets to face Jon Lester). Steals rack up fast. Baez could steal three bags in one game and blow away preseason projections in one good month. Or with more games in a shortened period of time, players will run less, saving their legs. Yes, this was 400 words to say “I don’t know,” but it needed to be said.
14. Tim Anderson – Okay, last point made again to beat a dead horse — sorry, PETA! — Anderson is projected for 13 steals in my top 20 shortstops and, yes, if he gets, say one steal a week, which is his usual average, then 13 steals sounds about right, but he’s the type who could steal 10 bags in one month and put up a 20-steal season in only 100 games. No one, not even me, is saying he will, but that’s the thing about steals. Usually over the course of a 162-game season steals even out. A guy steals 10 bags one month, then takes a month off, then gets hurt, then returns with three-steal months for three months (this hypothetical sounds oddly specific), but in a short season, there’s less time for regression — or flattening of the curve, did I just invent that saying?
18. Carlos Correa – I moved Correa up in my rankings! For the first time ever, I could see drafting him! We’ve turned a corner, y’all! What has been Correa’s problem for his entire career? Playing 162 games. Guess what won’t be a problem this year. It’s a brand new day! You, “Whoa, so much enthusiasm, so where did you move him?” He went from 143rd to 133rd overall in my top 500! Exciting, right? Hello? You still there? I hear heavy breathing, but not sure if you threw your phone against the wall, and your St. Bernard is licking the phone. Okay, so not a huge difference, and, in all likelihood, Correa is still off the board by the time I’m drafting him, but I moved him above Didi and Dannys Antana, because I would draft Correa over them, and I wouldn’t have before the shortened season.
25. Jorge Polanco – In the 1st half last year, which is about the same number of games we’re looking at this year (said me confidently without any confidence), Polanco’s stats were 57/13/42/.312/4 in 356 ABs. I’m not saying he will do that, but if he does, he will be a top 12 shortstop. Starting fast is going to make all the difference this year. So, is Polanco regularly a fast-starter? Or as Prodigy would scream, “FAST-STARTER!” No, Polanco isn’t, which is why I didn’t move him up. Historically, he’s been a slow starter, if you put aside last year, but last year might’ve been a corner turning. He’s turnt? Maybe, but impossible to say. Just thought on Jo-Po, besides my usual thought on Jo-Po which is, “Is Jo-Po the prison in Massachusetts or a nickname for Jo Polniaczek ?”
Thanks for the heads up on Baez, passed him up early in both RCL leagues! Stay safe out there. One thing about social fisting, err…..I mean social distancing….the dog loves me being home more!! And no you sick Razzballers, I don’t fist the hound just an ill fated early morning attempt at some humor!!
Snacks! I think our dog is wishing we’d go out more, it’s a little tiring for him
Grey;
Which side of this trade do You like:
Canha $10 + Luzardo $10 versus
Olson $20 + Mercado $10
Al only league
Olson side
Ps:
I think there’s a decent likelihood 2020 is cancelled, each value will be bumped by $5 for 2021. So the exercise is really 50/50 assessment on 20/21.
As of 21, Olson will likely be at value if roughly $25-30. Mercado harder to project. Luzardo hardest to project, but huge potential to shoot up to $20+ value.
Olson side for me and it is not really close.
At the same price, Mercado > Canha. Canha’s profile is a dime-a-dozen these days, but Mercado’s potential 20/20 is hard to find.
Olson vs. Luzardo is apple-to-orange, but I would take Olson over the uncertainty of a young pitcher like Luzardo every time, even at a higher price tag.
Plus, in Al-only, 1B is very thin.
Thanks!
Olson
Agree with others
Grey!!!
Awesome SS report!
a. So, yeah I didn’t sign up any of these guys. Bummer!
b. MLB quote of the day for May 12, 1975
‘You must try to generate happiness within yourself. If you aren’t happy in one place, chances are you won’t be happy in any place.’
Ernest ‘Ernie’ Banks, aka Mr Cub, aka Mr Sunshine. The pride and joy of his alma mater (The Booker T. Washington High School), the first NL player to win back-to-back MVP awards (1958 and 1959). Banks holds the MLB record for most games played without a postseason appearance (2528). He was also famous for saying ‘It’s a beautiful day for a ballgame….Let’s play two!’ off of his love for baseball.
Cheers,
Ante
For the past 5 years, I have been a regular (everyday) reader and a sporadic (at best) poster on the best fantasy baseball site in the business….Other reading Grey’s post, the thing I look forward to every day is the MLB quote of the day….Thank you Ante!!….If I had more than two thumbs, they would all be up!
*Other “than”, that is
You are your own grammar Nazi Mex
Thanks, mex!
A. Maybe a good bummer
B. Very relevant right now, thank you, Ante!
Grey!
a. Thanks, man. The relevance was by chance though I did see he started out his career at SS so that’s not bad. A Cubs’ legend for sure.
b. All good this side. Hopefully the season can start July 1 that would be really great.
Cheers,
Ante
That’s nothing, you should try my Mulligatawny.
Anything coconut milk…I’m in!
You should try my vindaloo…it burns all the way through…you’ll still be thinking of me tomorrow when you poo poo…
Well worth the line…even comes with an armoire for your time…
I love Indian food, even though every time I eat it, it rips through me
Agreed. It’s insame. Makes you earn it.
She says it’s getting the poison out…
Also liked mex’s Spike reference.
Haha, yeah, it gets the devil out of colon…And I love it! Cleans you right up!
You guys need to stop talking shit…………….
About Phillies? Never!
Oh, about the Cleveland team
LOL yes that Indiian food and it fine after affects
Haha
I made a Spike reference? I didn’t know that. What was it?
What time do you get up to write this ? Or should I say go to sleep ? Best read of the day.
Thanks!
Since he broke out in the 2nd half of 2017, Baez has been a fast-starter the last 2 years. more to like!
I took a chance on Paxton last night, passing on Hand @152. Reports from the Yankees are promising in that he’s throwing regularly w/out any pain. Assuming the season doesn’t start much before June 1, and that there was no structural damage, in that they removed a cyst by a microscopic diskectomy, I don’t think the risk was greater than the reward he could bring, if he’s ready or close to ready when the season opens. I don’t think safe will win you much at Best Ball points
I like Hand, but don’t see too many quality starters down the road, and I only had 4 at that point.
Also went with Kingery @149 over JD as my 4th o.f. ( with multi position).
works for me. I’m not super high on Paxton, but I can see that working out good
Okay, thought experiment, if someone is a fast starter, does that mean they’ll be a fast starter in, say, July, when the season starts, or did April and May pass, when they are fast starters, pass and they no longer will be
I guess by that response you didn’t like my independent picks. :(
Oh, sorry…I missed them, I saw Coolwhip’s comment, replied and then the comments section jumped down to next area…I like Pax and Kingery…Those picks make sense…I love Kingery, I think JD might be a tad better in Best Ball, but they’re close
Thanks Grey. Feel a lot better about my own judgement.
Regarding Kingery, he’s still only 25 and finally has a mgr. in Girardi who I would expect to play him regularly and not jerk him around. I like Davis as well, but the Mets, you know, and just what if Cespedes does play.
Paxton or Hand was my choice, as Ryu was taken and I wasn’t ready to jump up to draft Odorizzi.
I love Kingery https://razzball.com/scott-kingery-2020-fantasy-baseball-sleeper/
I’m just saying in a Best Ball, maybe I’d go JD, but they’re close
IMO, fast-starter hitters are those that are able to capatilize on pitchers as they find their footing at the start of a season (regardless of when the season begins). I think in Baez’s case its due in part to his swing-happy style. He has sub-par plate discipline but has elite hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball ability… this i think plays into fast-starting for him, as pitchers may not be as crisp with their command and break and the scouting reports aren’t as fresh. So as a season begins, odds are in his favor. If this is true, then the season beginning in the heat summer would help him even more, lol.
That makes a lot of sense…I wonder if there’s any way to back it up with stats…Like guys with lower OBP have better Aprils, usually
hmmmm… something to think about. Might take it another level, not necessarily low OBP but those with high Con% and Sw%. If only I had the time to dig into such numbers… LOL
Haha, yeah, you should do some digging!
hmmmm… so after some initial digging i found some interesting information. This deserves its own post! now i need to go a little deeper for some why/how…. to the batcave!
sidenote: Baez is shocking not the highest swing% in the last 3 years. LOL. CDick is.
Yeah, do a post…Just ping Donkey and tell I told you to do a post or have it for your next one…
I was thinking the same thing. Cool may be on to something if it’s a matter of end of season burn out. It may have more to do with OBP issues causing higher variance…
Was also thinking how easy it would be for Mondesi to hit .220 now.
Yeah, huge variance on AVGs this year…I’d imagine someone hits .370+ too
Arraez?
If he’s leading off…I’m all over him
He might hit and steal 2/2 in 100 games, but that AVG, could be .375
Just realized I don’t know what variance means but it just sounds mean…
I don’t know what mean means
john means?
I don’t know him either
Thinkin the delay favors the hitters. Many bats warm up with the weather, and after the 4 week ramp up I think they will be super ready to go.
Baez plate discipline is reckless, but it’s his plus-plus bat speed (and Whip mentioned hand-eye coordination) that makes him special. Dude takes a hack!
Yeah, I could see that
I was kind of wondering the same the same thing regarding top prospects who are young and kind of on the cusp. You could argue that this hurts guys like Wander Franco and IanAnderson, they lose development time. However if they do get called up and teams are more inclined to go with best roster over service time they could get quite a bump in value. There are probably greater risks and rewards possible in a 100 game format. I think I’m more likely to draft Wander or Daulton Varsho, though I already have a few shares of both in deeper formats.
Yeah, upside in 100 games changes things…Wander isn’t up? Cut him and grab a hot bat, because you only need someone for 3 months vs. 6 months
How does the shortened season effect Mondesi value? 25 steals instead of 15 seems easier to ivercome than 30 instead of 50.
I bumped him up a little…more time for the shoulder to get to 100%
Most guys who steal, say, 15 bags, will steal 7 or less, so relatively 25-30 steals is still a lot
In a S+H league. I have Rogers, Neris, N. Anderson and the Astros Ryan Pressly.
Last year Pressly was a dominant setup man and had 31 Holds and 3 Saves. Year before that he had 14 Holds.
My league is very shallow in number of teams and roster spots. Trying to balance S+H counting stats with good ratios and if I should drop Pressly for a closer to keep pace with another team that carries Yates, Chapman, Ottavino and Lugo.
The best remaining closers are Raisel, Colome, Workman, LeClerc and Kimbrel (who had a miserable outing in spring training to follow up his miserable 2019). None of them have great peripherals.
It’s my first time playing in a S+H league and not sure if I’ll get more out of a set-up guy to bank on Holds or a closer for counting stats. Would you keep Pressly for Holds or drop him for one of the closers for Save counts?
I’d grab Kimbrel there
Who would you drop for him?
You’re not concerned about Kimbrel? Where would you rank him overall for closers?
I could probably convince a team owner to trade E. Diaz for one of my RP. He’s not a fan of Diaz.
So saves and holds are separate or no? Pressly is good for Saves+Holds, don’t see why you’d lose him
Saves and holds are combined.
Keep Pressly – and N. Anderson instead of picking from those available closers?
Thanks for your help.
Don’t see why you’d switch, at least not right now
Thx Grey.
Would you attempt to trade either of my RP (Pressly, Anderson, Nerris) for E. Diaz instead or hold?
Nah
This is probably obvious, but in a short season (could be very short) injuries and consistency matter more than in the past. Even small 14-30 day DL trips will make a HUGE difference in a payers value. This is also true of slumps.
I’m sure there are math geniuses out there much smarter than me, but it sees that some analysis in to the likelihood of injury and consistency would be a good idea.
I assume older players are more likely to get hurt, 10 day DL trips for minor injuries that it takes longer to recover from and probably certain positions are also more likely to get hurt. That should shift values.
Also players that have wild swings in performance should also be thought of as more risk. Think R. Odor…that guy could win you the league this year if you have him and he’s hot, but could also lose you the league if you have him when cold. There must be some statistical measure that tells us who are the steady eddies vs the wild cards in such a shortened season.
I don’t agree with consistency…In a 3 month season, I want a guy who will be hot for 6 weeks vs. a guy who gives one home run every ten games — also, likelihood of injury is pretty much impossible to guess for most hitters…
consistency needs go up though in:
1. deep leagues
2. h2h in general
obv you are speaking about 12 team roto in general, so neither of those. consistency would actually go DOWN in a shorter season (need for it), you’d rather have risky picks who might win you leagues likely, and in 12’ers it’s FAR easier to drop some super cold guy than deep spots. and ALL the stats count the same in roto so somebody who’s upside hits helps a TON. some dude that has 3 great weeks in h2h but the other 10 or so bad is death in h2h’s and deep leagues.
Oh, in 12 teamers, it’s gonna be like we played a whole season and now it’s July with how long leashes are…If a guy isn’t good in July, you have no time to hold him
right, so upside but low or no consistency guys you could replace anyway for 12’ers.
Yeah
The Scheme was great…
Got to see this Mafia movie starring Marsellus Wallace next.
Haha, looks like some of the movie producers I’ve worked for!
I’ve been watching more reruns of 1980’s games and one thing stood out about the SS position. It was way, way worse back then then people even realize. Trammel and Yount would have filled in today’s game well, and of course the Wizard of Oz could play in any generation, but most of the rest would have a hard time reaching AAA in today’s game. They had no power, not much speed and were great defensively at balls hit to them but lacked the amazing coverage today’s SS have. This position more then any other makes me grateful for the time period of baseball we are in.
Yeah, as I say sometimes, I think this generation grew up watching A-Rod at short and decided it was a power position
True. Tell me what you think of my team I drafted last night. I like the versatility that my position eligibility give me and the pitching has a better floor then the other three 12 team 5x5s
C: Garver
CI:Bellinger,Bregmen,Antana, Diaz, Nunez
MI: Biggio, Segura, Newman, Castro (Bregmen too)
OF: Just Dongs, Robles, Guirrel Jr, Seoul Train, Teoscar H., Adell (Bellie, Antana, and Biggio too)
UT: Alvarez
SP: Morton, Greinke, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Weaver, Archer
RP: Chapman, Kimbrel
Looks ok on hitting, I don’t like Bregman, but you must’ve got him cheap if you had a top 5 pick for Cody…I think you’re low on speed tho, might be close….Your pitching is fine, I don’t like Greinke or Archer
This was my fist share of Bregmen but I wouldn’t be surprised if I pick up more for a slight discount. His road splits have been impressive. For instance, it is a super small sample, but last year in the 2nd half of the season on the road he hit .397 with a 1.333 ops and a .528 wOBA. He is a guy that I’m predicting will be fine without the distraction of listening for trash cans clanging 400 feet away.
During the draft it didn’t fall my way early on in pitching so I just went solid solid over upside. Archer was a late round dart throw. I’m hoping that now that Searage is gone that he will be deployed better.
Have a great weekend!
Not worried at all about trash cans, I’m worried about his fly ball rate and fly ball distance
You too!
I know I just reached (for the 3d straight time), but Walker @ 169, before my 172 turn, is what I did. Not dying for a catcher, and I can pick up a 5th o.f. (and a 6th/7th/8th…) later, as well as a 6th/7th/8th/9th s.p., or 2nd & 3d r.p. Even if your projections may be a tad high, he serves well as a 2nd 1st baseman, and a solid util. bat. Plus, the guy after me had back to back picks, and has no 1b or util., and his other choices were Voit and then Cron.