Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know the fantasy baseball season is delayed. For those that are living under a rock, stay there, especially if you have toilet paper. True story alert! Cougs and I are doing this thing called Shipt, where you get a remote personal shopper to go to the store for you. So, we sent them to the CVS to get me Suave deodorant — Don’t tell me it’s a female deodorant, either. Do you often describe a female as “suave?” I didn’t think so! — soap, hand sanitizer, paper towels, and, of course, toilet paper. The shopper notified us from the store, they had nothing we ordered, but did we want anything else? We were like, “Sure, peanut butter cups.” When the apocalypse came, we ordered someone to get us toiletries and when that failed, we got candies. Books will be written about the fall of the United States, and there will be a chapter on how we all just shrugged when we got dem candies placed on our doorstep. And, yes, I am now wiping with tiny gold aluminum foil. With this series, I will take a look around the 2020 fantasy baseball rankings to see if there’s any differences now that we might only play a 100-game season. Projections have been updated on all my positional rankings. This is using the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball as our guide. Anyway, here’s thoughts on the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball with the new Corona timeline:

1. J.T. Realmuto – He was the only catcher in my top 100 for 2020 fantasy baseball, and perhaps the biggest proponent for position scarcity. Sadly (depending on your POV), he also takes the largest hit with the new timeline. His value was so tied up in the large sample size. It didn’t matter if Realmuto was going to hit 22-25 homers or steal 5-7 bags; it mattered that he was going to get all of those runs and RBIs across all his at-bats. All those at-bats he’s no longer getting. Prior to the All-Star break last year, there was roughly 90 games. Figure if we get 100 games this year, catchers will be rested at least once a week and, well, Realmuto had 308 ABs pre-ASB last year and his new projections are at 325 at-bats, so all of this checks out. It’s as if we’re playing until the All-Star Game. His new projections are 56/15/51/.278/2, but his pre-All-Star break numbers last year? Well, he had 10 homers, the same as Jason Castro and Carson Kelly. In fact, look at this, and try to avoid becoming nauseous:

Pre-All-Star Break:

J.T. Realmuto: 55/10/42/.273/4

Jason Castro: 27/10/24/.257/0

Of course, Realmuto’s numbers are better, but are they that dramatically better that some people are drafting Realmuto in the top 50 and Jason Castro is going around 370th overall? This is not to say Jason Castro is good. He could be passable, but that’s the whole point. In a short season, there won’t be time for regression, or in Realmuto’s case, an opportunity to stretch out his floor. That floor, which makes him so good, will be limited because he pounds you with at-bats, raising his value in runs and RBIs. Without those at-bats, Realmuto’s projections look like, well: Steamer hitter projections:

Player A: 60/14/44/.270/2
Player B: 49/15/45/.270/4

Player B is Realmuto. Any guesses on who Player A is? His name rhymes with Zoey Blotto. For this reason, and so many others, I’ve decided to do the brave thing during this pandemic. The only honorable thing that can be done. I’m social distancing from J.T. Realmuto and moving him down in my top 500.

5. Mitch Garver – Since the dawn of time, there’s been one catcher who has homered more than 30 times in 100 or less games:  Mitch Garver in 2019. There is only two catchers in history who hit 25 homers or more in 100 or less games, Ivan Rodriguez was the other. That was when he was going by the name Pudge, i.e., when it wasn’t ironic, and he was still on steroids. Prior to 1960, Stan Lopata was the only catcher to top 16 HRs in 100 or less games. Lopata was, according to Wikipedia, the first NL catcher to wear glasses. If any NL catchers are reading this, you can make history and become the first to wear a monocle. (In the AL, Darrell Porter wore a monocle on the Royals in 1978 for one game, when he couldn’t find any tape to hold his glasses together.) With all this said (that is totally true and relevant), I’ve moved Garver up in my top 20 catchers. Before everyone started going viral enough to make influencers jealous, I was worried Garver would be limited in a 162-game season, but if the Twins need to put their best foot forward for 100 games, Garver could be the best catcher in the league. Wouldn’t that still make him the cream of the crap? Yeah, possibly, but still.

31. Manny Pina – I have him projected for 19/7/22/.230 in 196 ABs. For what it’s Werth, Steamer has Pina down for 144 ABs. Mean’s while, he recorded 79 ABs in the 1st half last year, as a backup. Really hard to figure most backup catcher at-bats in a shortened season, and Pina is harder than most. If MLB returns (please, God), then the assumption is they will try to play as many games as possible in a shortened time period. For unstints, they were playing 162 games in roughly 183 days. Now, they might try to play 100 games in 105 days. For most positions, this isn’t a big deal, but managers might be forced to rest catchers more than other hitters. So, catcher backups could see more reps. Point for Pina! Moreover (when someone says ‘moreover,’ they are being so super serious they should get punched in the face), Omar Narvaez and Manny Pina could be in a straight platoon vs. a starter/backup. Instead of screaming ‘natch,’ I will now do the same with CATCH! Could Pina get two games a week to keep Narvaez fresh? Could most starting catchers be rested more? I don’t have an answer for you yet. When baseball announces how long the season will be and when it will start, it will be clearer. Austin Allen, Austin Hedges, and Manny Pina could all have more value. James McCann and Tyler Flowers? Well, “Flowers & McCann” sounds like a gay Flowers in the Attic, but so many backup catchers’ values could get a slight boost in deep leagues. In short after going long, I haven’t moved Pina, due to the Corona timeline, but if you like Pina Coladas and making love to a catcher in a two-catcher league, I’m with you. By the by, for those finding this post after googling “Pina Colada + Corona,” leave that Jimmy Buffet concert right now and go home until further notice!

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Bamabterry
Bamabterry
2 years ago

Where is the break even point here? At what amount of ab’s does the fact that the top few catchers getting 1/5 (or whatever that number is) more ab’s not matter? Would this also apply to scarce stats, like steals?

William Hung
William Hung
2 years ago

Happy Week 3/4 of quarantine! Hope you all are staying sane!

Awesome cast with Harold this week! I got a chance to eat at his restaurant right before he took his hiatus a few years ago

gino napoli
gino napoli
2 years ago

“I could see Trump opening everything back up in like a month honestly.”

Stop saying this. Trump does not and never did have the authority to shut or open the economy. The various actions by governors and mayors in states and counties across the USA do and did. Trump strutting around acting like it was up to him is complete BS.

It was never his decision. He never made the “shelter-in-place” orders and banning of gatherings of 50 or more — state and local officials did. So stop acting like Trump was the conduit of these decisions.

This is just Trump typically claiming ownership of things he never did. Everything about this narcissist is political and based upon others needing to kiss his fat ass. Him and the entire Rethuglican party only care about pushing their pet projects and blaming the opposition for all of their irresponsibility. He interjects to stop PPE shipments to Michigan because the Governor is a democrat, and then makes statements to make himself look good that are not true. Meanwhile the EPA is gutting pollution regulations and CAFE requirements are being gutted by the car industry he claims to have brought back.

They are playing politics in the middle of pandemic and salivating over how to profit. There is not a shred of integrity by any of them.

I know people will say I’m political when I state these facts, but seriously what does it take for his slavish followers to realize he’s taking this nation and this democracy off the cliff ?

eballs
eballs
2 years ago

With Verdugo having time to get “healthy”, do you see Pillar getting a decent amount of at bats, or do you see him more as a platoon guy? Also, what’s your stance on Christian Vazquez?

Adam
Adam
2 years ago

Luis robert or Baez? Keeper 5×5 obp

Primetime
Primetime
2 years ago

Grey, Doing out extended draft. 10 team keeper OBP. Didn’t have a 1st or 3rd and I like how my team is going.

Next pick I was either going Rosario twins or Laureano A’s. What do you think?

Freeman
Moustakas
Arenado
Story
Bellinger
Stanton

U- M Chapman

Bieber
Glasnow
Nola

Primetime
Primetime
Reply to  Primetime
2 years ago

Or too early pull trigger on Julio urias?

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
2 years ago

Love the theme of these posts!

Random Q, who’s a better closer bet while things are in flux, Henesley, Hudson, or Magill?

Thanks!

Adam
Adam
Reply to  Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
2 years ago

Luis robert or Baez? Keeper 5×5 obp

Earl
Earl
2 years ago

if they get back to playing, do you still see Nick Anderson getting ‘full time’ saves for Rays?

I ended up drafting him as my RP2 but now have had regrets as many people seem to indicate that the Rays will have committee for saves so Anderson will have lower amount of saves than a ‘full time’ closer.

Thoughts?

Earl
Earl
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I seem to like Anderson but I only have taylor Rogers, Anderson and Joe Jimenez as my closers so u can see that my closer situation is little dicey in 5x 5 12 team roto.

Guy offered to trade Liam Hendriks and Adrian Houser to me for my Anderson and Lance McCullers. Trade analyzer seems to indicate that is bad trade for me and I am also pretty high on Lance this year.

Earl
Earl
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Trade Analyzer has it as:
Houser – -$1.80 and Henriks at $13.30 for total of $11.50

McCullers – $6.80 and Anderson at $10.80 for total of $17.10

Taking it that u think Houser is closer to Lance than that and that Henriks is much better closer than Anderson??

Guess I will have to decide what to do and if I want to take chance with Anderson or not.

Thanks

Earl
Earl
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I know u seem to love Houser. Would you take him straight up for McCullers or are u saying it is maybe pretty close between them.

Thanks and hope u are taking care of yourself and others around you.

Wake Up
Reply to  Earl
2 years ago

Rogers
Anderson
Jimenez

is a pretty decent bullpen

don’tthink Anderson to Hendriks is a big upgrade

Anderson is berry good

Jays for days
Jays for days
2 years ago

Rendon or Baez to play utility in a 5×5 obp keeper league to play a utility spot. I have moncada at 3rd already and story at ss

toolshed
toolshed
2 years ago

I read all of the comments and cited my source (usa today). If they do ease up and play, it will require baseball to think out of the box. I read tony Clark’s comments about being open to playing at neutral sites, empty stadiums, etc.. but when is the last time baseball did anything that was considered progressive?

toolshed
toolshed
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I agree and I want baseball as much as everyone else. It just seems like a big ask at the moment and the players seem like they may have to cave to make it work.

thehombre
thehombre
2 years ago

Grey,

Thanks for this. I will be adding/ dropping catchers all season per usual. Stream C!

I just wanted to share this with you knowing you are a hip hop guy. I am a big Outkast fan and this made my day last week. Enjoy!

https://twitter.com/fakeshoredrive/status/1242114239449399296

KrazyIvan
KrazyIvan
2 years ago

I got as many Garver shares as I could. CoolWhip got him in one league right before my queued up next pick. Towards the end of the season he was playing nearly everyday. They would give Cruz a day off when Mitch wasn’t catching so he could DH in his place. He was batting leadoff…oh I miss baseball.

Speaking of missing baseball and catchers, last night I watched game 4 of the 1976 WS. Saturday night me and the fam watched the Bad News Bears, which was supposed to be set in 1976. As weird as I am there is a method to this madness.

Any hoos, not to be mixed with any ho’s, what was I saying, ahh yes catchers and game 4. So, the only player my 10 year old son recognized was Johnny Bench and he was curious of why he was batting 6th in the lineup (Thurman Munson raked at the plate that night and shamed filled me as die hard Yankees fan who had never uttered the name Thurman Munson to my only son). The play by play had made mention Bench’s struggles and low and behold when I looked it up his season resembled much of the crap we have to pick over for catchers now.
But, as fate had it, Bench changed his batting stance during the playoffs vs the Phills and Yankees. He closed his batting stance and put up superior numbers over those 7 games (all Reds wins): 12 hits, 6 for extra bases, 3 HRs, 7 runs, 7 RBIs. That and threw out every stolen base attempt except one. He had a 23 game postseason streak of not allowing a steal broken in game 4 by a Mickey Rivers SB.
That’s all, and BTW, Kelly Leak was safe.

KrazyIvan
KrazyIvan
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I hear ya. I was in New England then so I was out the main Yankee media and just grew up worshiping Donnie baseball, Willie Randolph, and Dave Righettii-wondering why Winfield could never do “enough” and left scratching my head of why someone thought Steve Balboni was a good idea.

KrazyIvan
KrazyIvan
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Haha! What about Pag’s at third base. WTH!
Why couldn’t Covid hit NY in 89 instead?!

KrazyIvan
KrazyIvan
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Nice!!!
If only this guy didn’t get hurt: Then our #2 pitcher wouldn’t have been Dave LaPoint!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bub07gwRgzY

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  KrazyIvan
2 years ago

They thought Balboni was such a good idea that the Yankees traded Fred McGriff, Mike Morgan and Dave Collins for Dale Murray and Tom Dodd (had to look up the actual names). McGriff was “blocked” because Balboni was the 1B of the future.

As a Yankee fan at the time, the ’80’s were brutal.

183414
183414
Reply to  KrazyIvan
2 years ago

Randolph and Winfield was my oldest son’s favorite Yankees. Believe it or not mine was Catfish Hunter. I started out a Giants fan with Willie Mays my 1st idol. Became a Yankees fan when the Giants traded Mays to the Mets. Why is Steinbrenner not in the Hall of Fame ?

183414
183414
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I was at the A.L. Championship game for Chambliss’ walk off against the Royals. Went to all the World Series games in ’78 and ’79. Reggie’s 3 h.r.’s one of the greatest sporting events I’ve ever seen. Secretariat winning the Belmont by 31 lengths 2nd. Giants beating the undefeated Patriots with my oldest son, sitting in the Club Level, after buying 1 go 6 Super Bowl jackets signed by the entire Giants team will always be number 1. I actually never left left the stadium from the opening kickoff until the final gun.

Coolwhip
Reply to  KrazyIvan
2 years ago

Oh hey there… *wave*

KrazyIvan
KrazyIvan
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Howdy Coolwhip. What reruns/movies about baseball are you watching?
And no, I want trade for Garver by giving up Dylan Bundy. The post-post-post hype sleeper is in the bag.

Coolwhip
Reply to  KrazyIvan
2 years ago

Last weekend watched the replay of 2017 WBC, good times.

This week watched Major League, Moneyball, and the 1988 world series with Gibby. Might dig up the Angels 2002 WS this week.

Moneyball is a great movie (surpirsing from me as that was a bitter pill year for Angels fans), but also comical in that nearly the entire movie they never mention Zito, Hudson, Mulder, and Lidle easily being the best 1-4 rotation in all of baseball to play up the roll of Hatteberg. LOL. Imagine making a movie about the 2019 Nationals and completely glossing over Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin and the run Sanchez had, in order to play up Howie Kendrick…. hmm, you know, thats a really good comp.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

LOL… so true

KrazyIvan
KrazyIvan
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Have you seen the Battered Bastards of Baseball? I was thinking of checking that out.
I did watch Ken Burnes Baseball up through the 40’s.
Cool story, my friends dad knew Spaceman Lee and I got to play catch with him. I learned in Burnes’ miniseries that Lee’s aunt was one of the best pitchers in the All American girls league during the war.

Coolwhip
Reply to  KrazyIvan
2 years ago

I have not, might check it out.

Wake Up
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Do it it was great.

183414
183414
Reply to  KrazyIvan
2 years ago

I don’t miss mlb.com, but I so miss baseball. Got turned off to Vasgershianm and the other sheep insisting that there was no proof that the Astros did anything other than bang on drums. Just so silly that they think no one would have caught on, and that time would have made their cheating almost impossible w/out taking all the time and making all the noise to communicate to Phil Collins or Ginger Baker to play the drums.

Goldirocks
Goldirocks
2 years ago

Looking for community advice:
Keep forever dynasty league -keep 20 mlb players. 12 team 5×5 usual categories…
Competitive team – Would you trade both Correa and Gallo away for T Story, if ur OF waa filled and you already owned Sano (high HR power/low batting average and speed- can fit into utility where Gallo had been)?
Or is that an overpayment/ selling too low on Correa – and should wait to see if he gets his value back this year before trying a move?
Comments appreciated… tks!

Goldirocks
Goldirocks
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Tks! I was leaning that way too! Then started second guessing…

JJ
JJ
2 years ago

In the possibility of a shorter season with more double headers, do you push to have a good bench bat to fill in when guys are getting rest? I came out of my draft and realized I filled all of my bench spots with SP and have a few guys that most likely will get days off and no one else to plug in ( Stanton, Andujar, Urshela ). I think I could deal away from my pitching to secure a good bench bat. Thoughts on that strategy?

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  JJ
2 years ago

Agree with Grey that it is player and league dependent. I will add though that I suspect most guys of the type you listed are going to get rested by not playing one game of the double-headers rather than get complete days off — I doubt your league allows you to substitute out for one game of a double-header, so I would not be overly concerned about adding a bench bat. If you have an opportunity to pick up a quality bat for an expendable pitcher, sure, that is always worth looking at, but there is no time crunch on that just because guys are going to get rested in double-headers.

183414
183414
Reply to  JJ
2 years ago

In the old days (I’m 72), the stars all played bot games. Even just your “good” players. Stengel would rest Berra on occasion, or play Elston at catcher and play Berra in left.

Jolt In Flow
Jolt In Flow
2 years ago

Cream of the crap! My favourite new saying.

oh… and good article btw. Thanks Grey.

Uncle Ernie
Uncle Ernie
2 years ago

Good morning Grey. Without any roster info. Which side would you favor. Bogaerts and Moose for Altuve and Muncy. Thanks

Coolwhip
2 years ago

LOL… btw Gman, Pudge while he was yoked was ironic, Pudge now pudgey is apropos/comically coincidental ;-)

Homer's got the runs
Homer's got the runs
2 years ago

Keeper trade question. 12 team keeper in h2h league standard OBP league where 14 players are kept.

Team A gets Albies, Buehler and Kingery

Team b gets Bregman, Snell and Ian Happ?

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  Homer's got the runs
2 years ago

That trade amounts to:

A) stud infielder, stud pitcher and super-utility upside guy, all entering their prime, for
B) stud infielder, stud pitcher and super-utility upside guy, all entering their prime.

It is a pretty pointless trade, except as a pure wager, which would not even exist unless the gambler in you has a hunch one way or the other, so why do you even care what Grey or anyone else thinks anyway? Just go ahead and place your bet on your hunch.

(Bregman and Happ having lifetime OBPs 50 points higher than Albies and Kingery, respectively, tilts this to B for me, but it is close, and like I said, why do you care what anyone else thinks on a raw wager like this.)

Homer's got the Runs
Homer's got the Runs
Reply to  LenFuego
2 years ago

It fills needs team A is getting more speed and what should be a better starter. Team b is getting more power and OBP. Both teams would be dealing strengths for weaknesses. So value should matter no?

Homer's got the Runs
Homer's got the Runs
Reply to  Homer's got the Runs
2 years ago

Sorry I listed team A And B wrong. Team B would be getting the speed and better starter.

183414
183414
Reply to  Homer's got the Runs
2 years ago

A better starter ? Yeah, if only he didn’t have a history of shoulder or was it elbow problems. That counts.

183414
183414
Reply to  Homer's got the Runs
2 years ago

Forgot Team A will more than double the speed of the buzzer man and Happ.

183414
183414
Reply to  Homer's got the Runs
2 years ago

Sorry dude, typed my reply before seeing your redo.

183414
183414
Reply to  Homer's got the Runs
2 years ago

On the same page Homer !

Wake Up
2 years ago

Thanks for keeping up the content and the haha’s.

Keep your chins up this to shall pass.

https://youtu.be/1mRec3VbH3w

Wake Up
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Many say I couldn’t be stranger…

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

mmmmmmhhhhhhh fair,,,,deep fried foods

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

and a massage chair

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

my back is fucking killing me

Wake Up
Reply to  J-FOH
2 years ago

Oh the old massage in a bottle

LOLmets
LOLmets
2 years ago

We’re supposed to be overreacting to players performance after the first weekend of games right now… Just to make things seem a little normal, below is what my comment would have been on this date in an alternate reality where the world isn’t on lockdown-

“Porcello looks like he’s going to be a steal.

Would you drop Benintendi and pick up Domingo Santana?”

Coolwhip
2 years ago

Well, ain’t that a mitch. hahahaha (laughing hysterically) hahahaha. If season becomes a sprint, most of Garver’s off-days will become Yasmani off-days… i.e. DH days on the off day that they give Cruz an off-day.

He just might have 18+ HR in a 100 game season. You have Bregman/Freeman penciled in for 19. hahaha. Not sure if thats crazy talk, or crazy like a fox. But I have signed up for it wherever i could for the low low price of around pick 140 or pennies on the dollar in auctions.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

In that scenario he wouldn’t just be a top catcher, but probably a top 50 player. LOL (breathe… breathe…)

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

I like him, but still don’t see it. Launch angle is elite, but There’s got to be some regression here. Simply on the HR/FB at 29%.

I’m more in the camp if he gets 300ABs in a shortened season he hits 10-12 HR.

Coolwhip
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Right Knoche, regression down from 30 HR n 100 games. Launch angle not the only thing elite with him, lol. From my deep dive “…top 5% in Barrel%, xSLG, wOBA, and Hardhit% that benefited from a 15.3% average Launch Angle. And his EV+ (on balls in the air) was good for 7th in all of baseball.” And in AAA his HR/FB was 20%, not sure what was going on with him in 2018, but this isn’t out of nowhere.

You think he’s really going to regress 66% with those underlying numbers? sure it’s possible, but it’s tough for me to lean that heavy when he’s hidden in an even more stacked lineup.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

I agree with this 100%. I’m out on Garver.

Watched a lot of him last year as I owned him and was against him a bunch. This is completely anecdotal but it feels like whenever he swung the bat last year he hit a homerun and whenever he hit a homerun it barely went over the wall.

Before last season where he hit 31 homers in 300 at bats (insane) he had a total of 7 homers in 350 at bats across 2 seasons with the twins.

Last year was a complete fluke for Garver. He won’t come close to repeating.

Sell.

Coolwhip
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

his avg HR distance was 400, and if you look at fangraphs not one of those projection systems in 100 games are giving him less than 16 HRs. I don’t see the heavy fluke… just a little extra luck… the HR/FB is a little high, but not stupid high when you look at his batted ball metrics. Maybe it goes down 30%? but that would still be 18+ HRs, 50% around 14-15 HRs. *shrug*

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

I’m not trying to rain in your parade but….

This guy Mitch Garver had a 2.4 HR % in the minors (1828 at bats and a total of 51 homers).

In 2018 where he got around 300 at bats for the twins his HR % (HR per AB) was 2% as he hit 7 homers.

Last year where he hit 31 homers in around 300 at bats his HR % was 8.64%

I think last year he just ran really really good in a 300 at bat sample. Think Chris Moneymaker winning the 2003 world series of poker.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

The % for the stat actually uses HR per plate appearance, not HR per at bats.

Courotsey of the baseballcube.

That’s why the % seem a little off. But the principal still applies. Last year was the exception, not the rule.

Coolwhip
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

Right, in AAA it was 4.57%, and his XBH was 49.5% compared to 56.5% in 2019… I think its reasonable to see it this year something around 6%/53%, it wouldn’t shock me.

Coolwhip
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

Nah, I get it and i’m with you in skepticism… but players can change approach, swing mechanics, adjust… his AAA numbers look like what he did in 2019… then he was called up end of 2017, 2018 and struggled for a “year”. Most catchers usually do while they learn the MLB level, his approach and swing profile have all changed/improved since last year.

https://ibb.co/7KGp5yY
Look at that graph for xSLG same is true for his wOBA… you draw a line through the center of that, its trended upward ever since he was called up. That looks a normal players development pattern. Like i said, i agree the 29% has got to come down because of the short 300 ABs, but its hard for me to forecast that disappearing by more than 40%

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

I just showed you Mitch Garvers HR% in the minors. It was 2.4% in a large sample size.

His HR% in 2019 was 8.64%

That’s a huge difference. Like yuge.

He wasn’t hitting close to as many homers in the minors as he did last year in 2019 in the bigs. Not saying players can’t get better, but you’re trying to tell me that Garvers 2019 is in line with what he did in the minors which isn’t close to being accurate.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

And you’re comparing baseball situations to Bitcoin and Chris Moneymaker in 2003.

He’s using his AAA HR%. You’re using his entire minor league career, yes? So including 5/6/7 years ago. Who cares?

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Cram It
2 years ago

Lol. Guess we’ll see what happens.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Cram It
2 years ago

Also I guess 2018 was 5,6,7 years ago when his hr% was 2% like milk.

Coolwhip
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

My main point is that in the last 3 years, he has clapped in 2 of them (which is why he was called up, Twins saw the growth). Every underlying metric supports more toward the 2 than the 1. And his growth charts look like a developing talent: cycles of adjustment, dip, adjustment, dip while still continuing to climb supported by elite-level plate discipline.

183414
183414
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

Don’t back down Cool. Let others be skeptical. I don’t care what he did in the minors or high school. I care what he’s done in the bigs. I like him a lot. Problem is that I only was able to get him at his adp (119) in my 1st of 10 drafts.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

and if Giancarlo can somehow get 100 games of ABs… hahahaha
In 2017 he had 26 HR in first half, 33 in 2nd… likey? hell no… but what if… “your AL league leaders in HRs for 2020 are neck and neck between Garver and Stanton, its been one hell of race to 30…” Mr Prorater’s head is going to explode.

Wake Up
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

This could definitely happen but I’ll lean Sano.

Wake Up
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Best
Shape
Of
His
Life!

Spoiler alert

It’s oval

Coolwhip
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

i am the walrus

Coolwhip
Reply to  Wake Up
2 years ago

LOL right or both… Twins *could* double up the league in runs scored etc.

Smitty
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Mitch gonna rake

Shoegum Reynolds
Shoegum Reynolds
2 years ago

I was thinking quite the opposite from you Grey (which is often a sign I’m wrong). I was thinking the shortened season would lead to less rest days for the best catchers because there would be no need to protect them from the rigors of a 162 game season. I’m thinking the same about the over 35 yr old posit players. And, using the same logic for pitching might we not see the best starting pitchers scratching 8ip per start and the best closers routinely going 2 innings?

lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood
lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood
Reply to  Shoegum Reynolds
2 years ago

They will be playing more double headers and have less off days

183414
183414
Reply to  lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood
2 years ago

Love double headers. Grew up in the 50’s. Was awesome. Ernie Banks was the man.

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  Shoegum Reynolds
2 years ago

Assuming we have a season at all, I would not be at all surprised to see teams playing 8 games every week – 2 double-headers and one day off. In that scenario, backup catchers would definitely play one game of every double-header and probably one other game during the week, so 3 out of every 8.

LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
2 years ago

” I’m a pitcher not a catcher ……….” Billy Bean on coming out of the closet

LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

LOL……nicely done

The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Love playing both sides of the coin.

“If the Twins need to put their best foot forward, Garver could be best catcher in the league”

“For most positions, this isn’t a big deal, but managers might be forced to rest catchers more than other hitters. So, catcher backups could see more reps.”

Hmmm…..How many shares of Pina and Hedges did you have again?

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

They sound like Rizzoli and Mild.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Haha

Wake Up
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Agreed!

Wake Up
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Pina and Hedges is a Hawaiian Fencing Solutions Company…

Wake Up
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Hahaha

@joeurso1
@joeurso1
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

I thought the same thing when I read that.

Wake Up
2 years ago

I like Pina Coladas and Corona Premiers…I am into yoga pants not sure if anyone has noticed yet but you can see the butts…not sure if I’ve ever made love but I do like to wear a cape when I fuck…and if it’s a Friday night I might be eating a cheese burger…anyway looking to cheat on my wife…hope she doesn’t read this…fingers crossed… it’s starting to rain…

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Wake Up
2 years ago

Haha Wake!

Wake Up
Reply to  FrankGrimes
2 years ago

Francis!

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Wake Up
2 years ago

Agree with Wake

frank cloud
frank cloud
2 years ago

Since baseball is up in the air, time to start that music/TV blog imo….i need a new show and a rap group. I just finished Ozark…what else you got?

fracloud
fracloud
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

yes to both, man craziest people are from the south. Started Earthgang after you mention them before on here. Solid

Mex
Mex
2 years ago

I’m generally not someone that posts my teams. But times are slower, so I figured why not.

A little background: 11 team, mixed, 5×5 roto. Keep upto 5 FOREVER. Wacky rule: We only get 3 non-DL moves a year. If a guy gets replaced on an MLB roster(IL’d, sent to the minors, suspension, paternity, etc), then we can move him to our “bench” and pick up someone off the WW as a replacement. Other than that we have 3 moves all year. So , when Jon Gray is sporting a nifty 5.52 ERA and 1.42 WHIP after 6 starts, you either pray he turns it around, hope he gets IL’d or burn one of your moves. It makes draft day that much more interesting/important. One other thing, I co-own this team, which means you sometimes end up with guys that you might not normally draft. My co-owner is a real close friend, but he and I don’t necessarily have the same philosophy on types of guys we like. He is influenced more by the CBS rankings than I am.

C- Jansen
C- Mejia
1B – Cahna (1B got away from us a little)
2B – Albies ( keeper)
ss – Story(keeper)
3b – Machado
IF – Edman
IF – E. Suarez
IF – Tatis (keeper)
OF – Harper(keeper)
OF – Castelanos
OF – W. Calhoun
OF – Schwarber
OF – Cespedes
U – Happ

SP- Giolito(keeper), Nola, Urias, Uriquidy, Weaver, C. Martinez, D. German(will be replaced once season starts)
RP – Diaz, Gallegos, Leclerc

Felt guys like Suarez, Calhoun, Cespedes, Weaver, Urias, Uriquidy all benefit from the delayed start this year.

Thoughts? Since I do draft this team with a friend, I always come away with mixed emotions.

Thanks. Stay safe everyone and don’t forget to maintain a circumference of about 36ft when out in public.

Wake Up
Reply to  Mex
2 years ago

Agree with OTS

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Mex
2 years ago

Theres some sketchy spotd on the back end of your offense. Starting canha, Yoenis and Happ isnt ideal with only 11 teams. That IL rule and only 3 moves is quite the wrinkle.

You’ll be rooting for half your team to get hurt!

Do you have to drop the player you picked up when the player comes off the IL? Or can you drop the IL guy?

Mex
Mex
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

Once a guy gets put back on the MLB roster, we then have 2 weeks to decide what we want to do. We can drop the IL guy or activate him and drop whoever we want. So we grabbed German with our last pick…so when he gets reinstated he ends up being a “free” pickup, assuming he will be better than whoever our worst picture is at that time.

I kinda like Cespedes, if he is healthy he will play and produce… we are both long suffering Mets fans, so we definitely had some home team bias when we picked him.

Mex
Mex
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Agree 100% about Canha…I am liking Machado more and more this year, he seems to be underappreciated/undervalued in most drafts i have seen.

galica
galica
2 years ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome top-20 catchers report!

a. I told you last week you could sell dog food to a cat person. Now I’m saying you should be a salesman on commission only, you’d make a fortune.

b. Alfaro’s my catcher, drafted in round 25 in one league and round 20 in another one. Hopefully he’ll be fine. The joy of drafting a catcher in round 25 is if you drop him for 2019Garver you don’t feel badly at all.

c. There were some surprisingly not bad catchers on the wire for most of last year. Like James McCann and Yan Gomes to name two.

d. MLB quote of the day for April 15, 1981

‘When Steve Carlton and I die, we’re gonna be buried 60’6″ apart.’

James Timothy ‘Tim’ McCarver. Initially I was looking for a Steve Carlton quote but given this is a top-20 catchers post I made it about McCarver.

Cheers,
Ante

Wake Up
Reply to  galica
2 years ago

Digging these quotes!

Agree with Wake

LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
Reply to  galica
2 years ago

I find it hard to imagine Tim Mcarver saying anything in that few number of words

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  galica
2 years ago

MccCarver also said in 1986: “Kevin Mitchell will never hit a lot of home runs because he hits the ball too hard.” That is from memory, so it may not be exact, but if it is not exact it is very very close. Mitchell hit 150 HRs in the following 5 seasons.

toolshed
toolshed
2 years ago

I know everyone is expecting baseball at some point, but did you see what the players and the league agreed to on friday?

The season will not begin until:

1. There are no bans on mass gatherings that limit the ability to play in front of fans

2. No travel restrictions

3. Medical experts determine that playing games will not pose a risk to the health of teams and fans

It is going to be awfully hard to check all three boxes within a reasonable amount of time even if this thing starts to stabilize. We are far from having this situation stabilized. Sorry to be Debby Downer. Nobody wants to hear it, but I think we are a lot closer to having no baseball than we are to playing a shortened season.

Ambradbu
Ambradbu
Reply to  toolshed
2 years ago

I could see Trump opening everything back up in like a month honestly. He clearly wants this to end. There wouldn’t be baseball then, and probably not till late may or june, but I think its way too early to think there won’t be a season at all. Once other businesses start to open back up these leagues will start up too, even if it is not in front of fans. There was even a statement right after that MLB will consider playing in empty stadiums. No one can really say at this point I guess though..

toolshed
toolshed
Reply to  Ambradbu
2 years ago

The players and the league agreed to playing only until the 3 conditions are met. This all happened on friday. The players still have an agreement in place with the league. Even on the most optimistic schedule, I dont see how all 3 conditions can be met.

Golf Knife
Golf Knife
Reply to  Ambradbu
2 years ago

I think we all want this to end. That of course won’t make it end. Stay safe and use common sense.

Wake Up
Reply to  Golf Knife
2 years ago

Agree with Wake

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  toolshed
2 years ago

As far as I can tell, this isn’t true… specifically #1….

“1. No governmental edicts on mass gatherings that would prevent teams from playing in their home stadiums”

Playing in front of fans will probably be a long while, but the agreement said nothing about playing in front of fans. Unless you have another source?

Here’s the ESPN write-up: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28964249/what-mlb-deal-players-means-2020-season-beyond

Wake Up
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

Agree with J Foh

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

#1 did occur, but they also left it open to possibly change. See below.

“Players want to play,” MLBPA executive director Tony Clark told USA TODAY Sports on Friday. “That’s what we do. Being able to get back on the field and being able to play, even if that means their fans are watching at home. Being able to play for their fans is something they’ve all expressed a desire and an interest to do, and to do so as soon as possible.”

Clark told USA Today Sports that the players are “very open” to games being held in empty stadiums and at neutral sites.

“That possibility exists,” Clark said. “… The opportunity to play in neutral sites is something both sides are willing to discuss.”

LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

If it drags on too long they will play in empty stadiums……….i could even see them changing the schedule to regional play to minimize travel. MLB will think outside the box and get some sort of season in…………….the players and mgt want to be safe but no one wants to skip a season

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Exactly, Knoche.

Toolshed posted that the season wouldn’t start until they could play in front of fans. That’s both the biggest hurdle and the part that doesn’t appear to be true.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  toolshed
2 years ago

Remember in 2017 when Bitcoin went from like $3000 to $20,000 in just a couple months? Then it crashed really hard back down to around $3000? I remember.

The massive run in bitcoins price saw it rise to nearly $20,000, and there seemingly was no end in sight. People were predicting that by now a single Bitcoin could be worth hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. But that didn’t happen. Reality set in, and it crashed.

I expect a similar outcome with the current virus scare. Right now there’s no end in sight, but that doesn’t mean the end of the mania isn’t near.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

It’s coming to a head. The pimple is about to pop.

DonnieB
DonnieB
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Are you talking about Aquino?

183414
183414
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

100% !!!