How’s everyone doing two weeks into a quarantine? I posed for an hour trying to take the perfect picture of myself for this tweet:

Can you think of a better use of time? Whee! I just literally yelled, “Whee!” and did a little dance, then washed my hands. I’m batshizz crazy and I work from home. This quarantine made me realize my only real hobbies outside of baseball are going out to eat and spending money. I’m not just on day 17 of a quarantine; I’m also on day 17 of receiving nothing but dank toilet paper memes from my mom. I guess it’s better than Pizzagate. Whee! I did it again. The Whee Dance, as I’m now calling it. Any hoo! The top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball were updated with new projections for a 100-game season. With this series, I will take a look around the 2020 fantasy baseball rankings to see if there’s any differences now that we might only play a 100-game season. Projections have been updated on all my positional rankings. Anyway, here’s thoughts on the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball with the new Corona timeline:

12. DJ LeMahieu – Listen, y’all, I ain’t tryin’ to be a hater. I don’t drink no Haterade. Occasionally, I do type words that, when read together, make it sound like English is my second language. So, I hate DJ LeMahieu, and already wrote a DJ LeMahieu overrated post, so what more needs to be said? Well, more, apparently. His 100-game projections are  58/10/48/.288/3 in 368 ABs. Doode, that’s horrid. But, I’m a self-professed hater, so let’s look at Steamer hitter projections for LeMahieu:  60/12/44/.285/4. Yo, I’m about to file a trademark infringement on Steamer for infringing on my horrid projections for LeMahieu. Let’s just look at some comparable Steamer projections:

Jorge Polanco – 58/12/53/.281/5
David Peralta – 50/13/48/.279/2
And this one…well, prepare to have mind blown: 40/13/42/.260/4

Okay, the last projections aren’t as good as LeMahieu, but they’re also Nick Solak’s projections and he’s being drafted 220 spots later. LeMahieu is like the Realmuto of 1st basemen. If there was a positive about either of them, it was that over 162 games they at least gave you great counting stats. In only 100 games, these guys get majorly dinged, which sounds like what happens to Cougs’ car at least three times a year (she’s the worst driver you’ve ever seen). I’ve dropped LeMahieu even further in my rankings. In a regular season, LeMahieu would’ve been a death-by-a-thousand-cuts. In a shortened season, he is a poison pill that will take you out in *snaps fingers*. My top 100 and top 500 have been updated.

14./15./16. Miguel Sano/Hunter Dozier/Christian Walker – I wrote sleeper post for each of these guys — for those without Google:  Miguel Sano sleeperHunter Dozier sleeperChristian Walker sleeper  — so I’m obviously a fan. A big, big ceiling. They have. Not a big, big, big ceiling fan. Sorry, if Yoda’s reading. Actually, three bigs for Sano, two bigs for Dozier–Okay, you know what? I’m stir crazy, and trying to decide whether to go to living room or bedroom for Easter. But all those fans and circling–my-finger-by-head-to-indictate-craziness aside, their 100-game projections are gorgeous, Sano thru Walker respectively:

51/27/58/.241/1 in 323 ABs
48/18/54/.255/2 in 337 ABs
51/19/57/.257/2 in 342 ABs

In all seriousness, in a shortened season, Sano looks like a top 25 hitter.

19. Edwin Encarnacion – What I said in my top 20 1st basemen for Edwin stands out more in a shortened season, calling him a poor man’s Nelson Cruz. Since then, everyone on a cruise is a poor sucker aka Nelson Quarantined-on-a-Cruise. Since we’re here, I may as well point out that Cruz is interesting in a short season too. In fact (Grey’s got more!), anyone who gets dinged for not being able to stay healthy all year, has an interesting outlook on the corona timeline. It’s all about that $/Game on our auction values. If you put “1b” in empty box below Pos on our auction values, it will sort to only 1st basemen. If you click $/Game, it sorts to best $/Game. There’s Edwin above LeMahieu. Any hoo! Edwin is projected for 20 homers by Steamer. He’s only 1 of 39 guys getting that many HRs in 100 games. I’ll give you a fun little trick to use on our projections. If you put “>19.5” in the empty box under HR, it will list all the guys with at least 19.5 projected homers. Then click HR and it will put them in order. (#3 is Alonso and #15 is Olson — all hail, Albombso and Allahson!)

23. Joc Pederson – Okay, remember what I said about 127 words ago about $/Game. Pederson has the 7th best $/Game (Howie Kendrick is 5th best, and what I’m about to say for Pederson goes for him too). There’s a balancing act of sucking on the teat of $/Game and realizing in a shortened season some guys will be platooned out of the lineup at same rate they would’ve in a full season. If Kendrick (or Pederson) would’ve played in 130 games in a 162-game season, it doesn’t mean they will now play 100 games in a 100-game season. They will now only play 80-ish games in 100 games. Pederson’s shortened-season home run projections 44/19/38/.251/2 in 249 ABs are *licks fingers like after some Nashville hot chicken* Yummers! But everything else for him is just okay. So, I still like Pederson to a certain extent, but about Howie…

45. Howie Kendrick – Okay, remember what I said about nine words ago about Kendrick? He’s being propped up by his batting average. His shortened-season projections from Steamer are 32/8/34/.308/2 in 214 ABs. Batting average is the stat with largest variance and up next are runs and RBIs. As our Steamer hitter projections show, it means Howie gets 66 hits. Sixteen less hits, or one less hit per week in a four-month season, and Howie’s hitting .234, then his runs and RBIs will bottom out and he’s not making it up with anything else. If we have a 100-game season, batting averages are gonna be bonkers. Someone might hit .400 and guys you expected to hit .270+ could hit .220. Keeping track of baseball stats this year is gonna be like keeping stats for jai alai. Some goofy shizz is gonna happen. “Patrizo, yo tengo 34 basket catches? That’s a nuevo record!” Then, we see Patrizo, a Venezuelan jai alai-sman, wearing a 45-foot basket on his hand.

 
  1. hondo says:
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    My Dad used to use Whee! as a demeaning term towards shallow thoughts.Since his IQ was over 180 and mine is not,I heard this a lot.

    Seeing it so many times in one article has triggered my fight or flight or bong hits issues.

    Door #3 makes the 1st and 2nd moot.

    And Eff Trump and Obama for all this.And especially that William Henry Harrison guy,he had to get sick and die in DC.He cursed the Nats home opener celebration that is not happening.

    Goddam I’m bored.

    • Dave D says:
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      Does anybody really believe this is Trump or Obamas fault? Not me. It’s pretty clear this is serving a function the question is to what end. I don’t think its an accident that the Virginia governor shut the state down until 6/10. Why is a Wednesday in mid-June being chosen? Well, it also just so happens to be the day after the state election . Suppress the vote? Commit fraud with mail-in ballots? It worked tremendously well in Orange County, CA in 2018.

      I’m with you on grieving the loss of a normal opening day. Its awful. It would be nice be able to focus on MLB and fantasy baseball, but when someone takes that away with a sinister plan its good to try and figure out who it is that is responsible. It’s certainly not Trump nor Obama. There is nothing natural about this virus nor the response.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Virginia is for lovers and write-in ballots on toilet paper

        • Biff Malibu says:
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          I can’t sacrifice squares for a write in. Where my drones @?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            HAHA

        • Dave D says:
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          Haha!

      • 183414 says:
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        You mean Black Face Northum who allows abortions after birth. These despicable politicians doing their best to destroy our country.
        How come there was never hourly postings of previous pandemics or abortions or murders ? Data models all being incorrect. Not saying this isn’t the flu, but until each and every American is tested to see if they have had the Wuhan virus or have it, we don’t know the true numbers of fatalities. Also I’m certain that many of those claimed to have died from the virus have had other medical issues which may well have been the cause. Democrats would love write in ballots.

        • Moonraker7 says:
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          Dude, no need for the Republicans vs Democrat stuff.

          • 183414 says:
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            Sorry if I offended you.

        • Cram It says:
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          Seriously, take your exaggerated tropes to the FOX news comment sections…you’ll have more like-minded friends there.

          • 183414 says:
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            I couldn’t care less what party these wonks were. I’d throw Barr’s ass out as quick as anyone. You don’t know a thing about me, dude. Not a clue. Btw, I don’t tell you where to go, so buzz off.

          • Tom says:
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            Cram fashions himself as the comment enforcer usually comes across as a douche.

            • DonnieB says:
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              A total douche.

            • 183414 says:
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              He’s nor enforcing anything. Acts like 2 of those bullies when I was a kid. Just a miserable myopic bore.

        • Dave D says:
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          Well, one thing is for sure, this COVID is a field day for any megalomaniacs in power. If taking away civil liberties is the endgame, then this virus has been a smashing success and you better bet they’ll keep them coming to keep the masses corralled in the future. We’ll see how this plays out in the coming weeks, but it’s not looking good for civil liberties in the future. This makes the Patriot Act look benevolent.

          • 183414 says:
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            Some people are always angry and telling others where to go. Sheep mentality !

            • Dave D says:
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              True, true. I just want the liberty and freedom to make the best choices for myself and my family. I don’t want politicians making choices for me. I fear they’re building up for more mandatory everything, which I detest. Let people make their own decisions.

              • 183414 says:
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                Spot on !!!

    • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
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      Go with the Bong

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Maybe I have a super duper high IQ!

      William Henry Harrison is the root of all problems

      • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
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        . Technically harrison died of a respiratory disease. cou;ld have been crorona……………WHeEeeeeZZe

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Welp, that’s a bummer!

  2. galica says:
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    Grey!!!

    Nice report, man. Enjoyed it, that was the purpose right?

    a. Hey, nice pic! You lookin’ buffed man! You poppin’ steroids? Did Canseco’s distributor leave you a pleasure pack from THAT podcast? Don’t answer, someone is watching us. Seriously, looking good under the bath robe. Sorry I can’t see the ‘stache under the mask but I bet it’s a booty too.

    b. I’m more into the idea that it will be max 100 games once it gets started. I’m being pessimistic so that if we get more I won’t be let down too much. Expecting more for the eventual letdown.

    c. MLB quote of the day for May 26, 1997

    ‘Hands down. It’s funny, listening to guys around here talking about a 45-minute trip, how long that is. In Florida, that’s the shortest trip we got.’

    Derrek Leon Lee, aka D-Lee. He’ll always be remembered for his first half of the 2005 season when he hit .376 with 72 RBIs and tied with Sosa for 27 HRs and finished the season with a career best 46 HRs. His .335 BA made him the first Cub since Bill Buckner to win a NL batting title.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, Ante!

      A. Dude, I am so swole!

      B. I think 100 games could be a ton of fun, maybe it keeps people engaged longer too

      C. What an amazing season that was

      • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
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        I that your real pic shopped on there????; al this time i thought you looked like Keith Hernandez

        Joe Exotic looks like White Goodman in the Dodgeball movie

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, that’s my real face with a face mask… I wish I looked like Keith Hernandez!

          • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
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            and all this time i thought your profile pic was real……..can’t believe anything on the internet these days

      • galica says:
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        Grey!!

        a. Thanks, man. I loved Derrek Lee.

        b. This is my RCL team.

        Alfaro
        Albombso
        Villar
        Urshela
        FTJ
        La Stella
        Mondesi
        Carlson
        Marte
        Mercado
        Soler
        Stanton
        Miguel Andujar
        Bench – Madrigal, Grisham, Hilliard

        SP
        S Gray
        Heaney
        Odorizzi
        Richards
        Ryu

        RP
        Nick Anderson
        Chapman
        Kintzler
        Workman

        On this team, who would you rather have?

        1. Hilliard
        2. Wade Davis

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A. Derrek Lee was one of the all-time greats…Such a huge fan of his…His leg drops

          B. Hilliard

      • 183414 says:
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        Wouldn’t be a marathon so much, that’s for sure. Will end up with 1/2 the teams in the playoffs, like basketball and hockey.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You remember the 81 season?

          • 183414 says:
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            Naagh, was working too hard and doing too much coke.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              HAHA

  3. Primetime says:
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    Grey, Doing out extended draft. 10 team keeper OBP. Didn’t have a 1st or 3rd and I like how my team is going.

    Next pick I was either going Rosario twins or Laureano A’s. What do you think?

    Freeman
    Moustakas
    Arenado
    Story
    Bellinger
    Stanton

    U- M Chapman

    Bieber
    Glasnow
    Nola

    Or too early pull trigger on Julio urias?

    • Fungazi 2.0 says:
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      Get some speed man

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hmm… Laureano, close tho

  4. Tom says:
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    It’s time for the NFBC to cancel the leagues and refund everyone’s money that finished drafts or started drafts before this pandemic took hold here in the USA. Clearly a new draft strategy has to be employed with the new reality.

    • packers2018 says:
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      Good point!

      1. Hard call for the NFBC. People were drafting teams well before the Corvid virus was made public. Lot of money on the line for the NFBC. They most likely won’t make a decision until MLB does.

      2. However, it would be interesting if they gave a credit to be used for this year only. There would be plenty of new drafts with everyone on the same playing field and keep the interest up.

      3. If the credit was a TBD, plenty of folks wouldn’t draft a team this year with the uncertainly of a season……

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Not a bad idea, packers…Give everyone opportunity to redraft

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          It has. But the NFBC starts leagues in November and the landscape changes from those that start in March already. Not sure this is different than guys randomly drafting a guy who hasn’t signed yet in December. At least as far as how they’re setup

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yeah, true too…No easy answers here…. I think giving everyone the option to redraft, might not be a bad idea, but it’s a slippery slope, for sure

            • The Great Knoche says:
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              I mean I agree, but mostly because Id want to do another slow draft, not because of the delay.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Ha, yeah, same…I’m still shocked they cut them off

                • Dave D says:
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                  The worst part is I had to divert my hockey winnings to cover lost income instead of doing a high stakes league. Just took my truck in today and need $1800 repairs. Ouch. Maybe I’ll do a $125 league when the dust settles. I’m not sure what the hell will happen with the NHL season which affects my bottom line in NFBC leagues.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Damn, what happened to the truck?

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Shocks, struts, brakes w/calipers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, it’s a tough call, the landscape has changed since even drafts in early March

    • 183414 says:
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      They’ll be having faab’s before the season starts. Will be a lot more bidding than most years. Really difficult and U think wrong to cancel those drafts. Not talking about slow drafts since they don’t have any faab. I never expect to win the 1 I play every year, but fair point on Draft Champions. Perhaps they can allow 1 faab before the season starts.

  5. LOLmets says:
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    Say it ain’t so man!!! I deleted my twitter becasue I can’t take how social media during this mess, but I just clicked your Twitter to see you stole my joke yesterday and passed it off as your own!?!?

    “Razzball
    @Razzball
    We’re supposed to be overreacting to players’ performances after the first weekend of games right now…So, to make things seem a little normal:

    Rick Porcello looks like he’s going to be a steal! Spend as much FAAB as you need on him!
    11:39 AM · Mar 30, 2020”

    To be fair, I’ve been stealing fantasy baseball takes from you for years and passing them off as my own. I guess we’re even.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, I said a while ago, anything in the comments is free to use… That joke didn’t do as well as I would’ve thought either, it was a good LOL

      • LOLmets says:
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        Oh no, I want at least 4 cents.

  6. LOLmets says:
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    *how social media reacts*

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Get in the RCL and draft without knowing what’s up with the season!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Better yet, spend an hour with friends and not thinking about quarantines

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          I signed up for a draft with the Fantasy Alarm guys tonight through RTsports thinking exactly this. Plus the should be a bunch of pushovers compared to most RCLs

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yeah, not sure…But I’m rooting for you!

    • Snacks Zillion says:
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      Snacks is in! Thanks

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Aw, sookie, it’s Snacks!

    • Dase says:
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      It says on the home screen it’s a premium league. Each drafter has to pay $6.66 by June 11th. Is this true or is it being switched to a free league?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Nah, it’s free, they remove the charge

        • Dase says:
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          Great, glad I kept a spot, thanks for responding.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            No problem

  7. eballs says:
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    With Verdugo having time to get “healthy”, do you see Pillar getting a decent amount of at bats, or do you see him more as a platoon guy? Also, what’s your stance on Christian Vazquez?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Think the OF is 4 man rotation…JBJ is out most days prolly…Vazquez is their catcher, nothing’s changed for him

      • eballs says:
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        Right, but with the delayed season, would you consider targeting a catcher like Vazquez late in drafts or are you still liking catchers such as Alfaro and Kelly instead?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I went over catchers yesterday and their changes…I still am punting and am fine with Vazquez

  8. Saint says:
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    Amateur question. Where on Fangraphs can I view the 100 game projections? All I can see is the full season.

    Thanks to anyone in advance for their response

  9. Woolly the Mammoth says:
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    Dear Fantasy Master Lothario,

    Any thoughts on Spencer Howard? Where would he be ranked if he gets a spot in the rotation during this shortened season? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I really don’t see him giving real IP this year…It would kinda shock me if he’s in the rotation, tbh…But I’d rank him around Pablo Lopez if he’s there…Maybe I will add him, I’m toying with it

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      What an iconic duo!

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        FYI if your mask isn’t n95 it’s basically useless lol

  10. Mex says:
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    So, in one of my leagues(I posted about it yesterday), we dont have a bench and we can only draft guys that are on an MLB roster. But we are allowed allowed to have a minor leaguer on our team. So, once the regular draft is complete we have a minor league draft. Who do you think are the top 5 – 10 “minor leaguers”, guys that will get their first action this year.

    I have the 4th pick, so Robert and Adell will most likely be gone. How would you rank the next best minor leaguers(or guys that got like < 50 AB's last year)? Mountcastle and Carlson I imagine would be some near the top of the list.

    As always, thanks. And be safe.

      • Mex says:
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        Duh! I forgot about that…My brain has been self quarantining on its own lately…Any new LaCroix flavors on your hit list? Is grapefruit, I mean, pamplemousse still numero uno?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Dude, La Croix is so hard to get during this quarantine…I’m at the mercy of the store and whatever they send me… It’s been mostly Key Lime, which is so lame