How’s everyone doing two weeks into a quarantine? I posed for an hour trying to take the perfect picture of myself for this tweet:
Call me Joe Neurotic pic.twitter.com/6Igr4FM8gO
— Razzball (@Razzball) March 22, 2020
Can you think of a better use of time? Whee! I just literally yelled, “Whee!” and did a little dance, then washed my hands. I’m batshizz crazy and I work from home. This quarantine made me realize my only real hobbies outside of baseball are going out to eat and spending money. I’m not just on day 17 of a quarantine; I’m also on day 17 of receiving nothing but dank toilet paper memes from my mom. I guess it’s better than Pizzagate. Whee! I did it again. The Whee Dance, as I’m now calling it. Any hoo! The top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball were updated with new projections for a 100-game season. With this series, I will take a look around the 2020 fantasy baseball rankings to see if there’s any differences now that we might only play a 100-game season. Projections have been updated on all my positional rankings. Anyway, here’s thoughts on the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball with the new Corona timeline:
12. DJ LeMahieu – Listen, y’all, I ain’t tryin’ to be a hater. I don’t drink no Haterade. Occasionally, I do type words that, when read together, make it sound like English is my second language. So, I hate DJ LeMahieu, and already wrote a DJ LeMahieu overrated post, so what more needs to be said? Well, more, apparently. His 100-game projections are 58/10/48/.288/3 in 368 ABs. Doode, that’s horrid. But, I’m a self-professed hater, so let’s look at Steamer hitter projections for LeMahieu: 60/12/44/.285/4. Yo, I’m about to file a trademark infringement on Steamer for infringing on my horrid projections for LeMahieu. Let’s just look at some comparable Steamer projections:
Jorge Polanco – 58/12/53/.281/5
David Peralta – 50/13/48/.279/2
And this one…well, prepare to have mind blown: 40/13/42/.260/4
Okay, the last projections aren’t as good as LeMahieu, but they’re also Nick Solak’s projections and he’s being drafted 220 spots later. LeMahieu is like the Realmuto of 1st basemen. If there was a positive about either of them, it was that over 162 games they at least gave you great counting stats. In only 100 games, these guys get majorly dinged, which sounds like what happens to Cougs’ car at least three times a year (she’s the worst driver you’ve ever seen). I’ve dropped LeMahieu even further in my rankings. In a regular season, LeMahieu would’ve been a death-by-a-thousand-cuts. In a shortened season, he is a poison pill that will take you out in *snaps fingers*. My top 100 and top 500 have been updated.
14./15./16. Miguel Sano/Hunter Dozier/Christian Walker – I wrote sleeper post for each of these guys — for those without Google: Miguel Sano sleeper; Hunter Dozier sleeper; Christian Walker sleeper — so I’m obviously a fan. A big, big ceiling. They have. Not a big, big, big ceiling fan. Sorry, if Yoda’s reading. Actually, three bigs for Sano, two bigs for Dozier–Okay, you know what? I’m stir crazy, and trying to decide whether to go to living room or bedroom for Easter. But all those fans and circling–my-finger-by-head-to-indictate-craziness aside, their 100-game projections are gorgeous, Sano thru Walker respectively:
51/27/58/.241/1 in 323 ABs
48/18/54/.255/2 in 337 ABs
51/19/57/.257/2 in 342 ABs
In all seriousness, in a shortened season, Sano looks like a top 25 hitter.
19. Edwin Encarnacion – What I said in my top 20 1st basemen for Edwin stands out more in a shortened season, calling him a poor man’s Nelson Cruz. Since then, everyone on a cruise is a poor sucker aka Nelson Quarantined-on-a-Cruise. Since we’re here, I may as well point out that Cruz is interesting in a short season too. In fact (Grey’s got more!), anyone who gets dinged for not being able to stay healthy all year, has an interesting outlook on the corona timeline. It’s all about that $/Game on our auction values. If you put “1b” in empty box below Pos on our auction values, it will sort to only 1st basemen. If you click $/Game, it sorts to best $/Game. There’s Edwin above LeMahieu. Any hoo! Edwin is projected for 20 homers by Steamer. He’s only 1 of 39 guys getting that many HRs in 100 games. I’ll give you a fun little trick to use on our projections. If you put “>19.5” in the empty box under HR, it will list all the guys with at least 19.5 projected homers. Then click HR and it will put them in order. (#3 is Alonso and #15 is Olson — all hail, Albombso and Allahson!)
23. Joc Pederson – Okay, remember what I said about 127 words ago about $/Game. Pederson has the 7th best $/Game (Howie Kendrick is 5th best, and what I’m about to say for Pederson goes for him too). There’s a balancing act of sucking on the teat of $/Game and realizing in a shortened season some guys will be platooned out of the lineup at same rate they would’ve in a full season. If Kendrick (or Pederson) would’ve played in 130 games in a 162-game season, it doesn’t mean they will now play 100 games in a 100-game season. They will now only play 80-ish games in 100 games. Pederson’s shortened-season home run projections 44/19/38/.251/2 in 249 ABs are *licks fingers like after some Nashville hot chicken* Yummers! But everything else for him is just okay. So, I still like Pederson to a certain extent, but about Howie…
45. Howie Kendrick – Okay, remember what I said about nine words ago about Kendrick? He’s being propped up by his batting average. His shortened-season projections from Steamer are 32/8/34/.308/2 in 214 ABs. Batting average is the stat with largest variance and up next are runs and RBIs. As our Steamer hitter projections show, it means Howie gets 66 hits. Sixteen less hits, or one less hit per week in a four-month season, and Howie’s hitting .234, then his runs and RBIs will bottom out and he’s not making it up with anything else. If we have a 100-game season, batting averages are gonna be bonkers. Someone might hit .400 and guys you expected to hit .270+ could hit .220. Keeping track of baseball stats this year is gonna be like keeping stats for jai alai. Some goofy shizz is gonna happen. “Patrizo, yo tengo 34 basket catches? That’s a nuevo record!” Then, we see Patrizo, a Venezuelan jai alai-sman, wearing a 45-foot basket on his hand.
