Back in late February I took down the ADP for the top 300 players with the intention of later reflecting on that data. I knew it would come in handy when thinking up an idea for a future column, and my clairvoyance has been fulfilled.

I’ve always been a proponent of NFBC’s ADP because of the amount of money their leagues generally require in order to play ($125+, upwards of $5,000+ in main events). It eliminates crazy outlier picks better than your casual ESPN mock drafts, and paints a great picture for value in rotisserie leagues.

As ‘weekly lock’ are their standard format, it deviates a little bit from our typical RCL that we have on this fantastic caldron of fantasy knowledge know as Razzball, but heading into the last week of drafts, I hope this will give you a great idea of the fluctuation of players in across the league.

The time frame of the change, as you will see, is between February 28th and March 26th. I’ll break up some of our specimens based on overall ADP, as players who are going later in drafts (150+ overall) have much more room to rise and fall than a player in the top 50.

To address players who have fallen due to a temporary injury, I’ve eliminated guys like Ian Desmond, Alex Reyes, and David Dahl, in favor of taking a look at performance and playing time based fluctuations. If you desire the +/- of any other player you don’t see here, feel free to mention in the comments below and I will dig in and find it for you (as long as their in the top 500).

Keep in mind, in order for a player to fall by a given amount, that player has been drafted further above or further below what their ADP on March 26th states. This is because NFBC ADP is a rolling average. For Yoenis Cespedes to increase from 59.08 to 56.66, he would have been drafted, on average, higher than the 56.66 overall from March 26th says. Not simply the +2.42 spots my interval of change shows you!

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Risers and fallers in the top 100 overall

Player ADP on 2/28 ADP on 3/26 Change (+)
Jacob deGrom 71.51 63.44 8.07
Edwin Diaz 82.23 77.79 4.44
Masahiro Tanaka 88.96 84.52 4.44
Ken Giles 91.98 87.71 4.27
Carlos Martinez 68.99 65.13 3.86
Wil Myers 57.71 54.24 3.47
Danny Duffy 102.89 99.55 3.34
Ryan Braun 50.15 46.99 3.16
Stephen Strasburg 55.07 51.96 3.11
Nelson Cruz 41.06 38.07 2.99
Gregory Polanco 65.20 62.38 2.82
Kenta Maeda 100.86 98.28 2.58
Yoenis Cespedes 59.08 56.66 2.42
Hanley Ramirez 82.23 80.02 2.21
Matt Carpenter 72.33 70.24 2.09
Yu Darvish 35.03 32.95 2.08
Seung-hwan Oh 73.62 71.92 1.70
Noah Syndergaard 19.93 18.34 1.59
Willson Contreras 91.40 89.89 1.51
Matt Kemp 98.50 97.02 1.48
Chris Archer 53.52 52.05 1.47
Jose Abreu 62.19 60.73 1.46
Robinson Cano 32.51 31.06 1.45
Kenley Jansen 48.29 46.96 1.33
Trevor Story 31.82 30.66 1.16

This chart specifically captures players who were near the top 100 overall as of yesterday, the 26th of March. These are your elite talents, and if they possess a generous uptick, like Jacob deGrom (+8.07), it means a lot of owners are adjusting their valuations and drafting without reservation.

deGrom has had a fantastic spring, posting a .91 WHIP over 15.1 innings, with 17 strikeouts, and a 2.93 ERA. He’s been dominant, using his tantalizingly attractive four pitch mix at an elite level. This ADP adjustment, to some extent, may be confirmation that he looks and feels healthy after undergoing elbow surgery in the off-season to remove his ulnar nerve. When deGrom is in fact healthy, ranking him inside the top 15 SPs is a must with his control and ability to generate swinging strikes (12.7% in 2015). I am unbelievably pleased that I nabbed deGrom back in early March for only $17 in CBS Sports’ expert NL-only Roto league. Grey usually dominates the group, but me and my $1 players have our sites set on his crown.

Edwin Diaz (+4.44) and Ken Giles (+4.27) are two closers who I have ranked as my fourth and fifth relief pitchers, and from the looks of this data, that seems parallel with how owners are reacting. More perplexing is that Giles has seen a similar uptick without the high profile innings that Edwin Diaz amassed in the World Baseball Classic. With the improved defense in Seattle, and overall optimism for the Mariners’ performance in 2017, Diaz’s role will be one of great value based on his current ADP. If you expect the Mariners to hit their projected 85+ wins, you may have been the reason for this ADP shift.

Putting aside the rise of a player like Gregory Polanco (+2.82), which will likely adjust downward after the news of his shoulder injury, I’m most surprised by what seems to be some consensus betting on age with the likes of Nelson Cruz (2.99+), Hanley Ramirez (2.21+), Matt Kemp (+1.48), and Robinson Cano (+1.45). In a world where prospects and upside rule the draft boards, it sometimes makes sense to deviate and hedge your Trea Turner and Alex Bregman picks with stability in guys who have track records of consistent production.

Player ADP on 2/28 ADP on 3/26 Change (-)
Zack Greinke 97.60 102.71 -5.11
Dee Gordon 45.95 49.51 -3.56
Eric Hosmer 103.12 106.65 -3.53
Buster Posey 38.34 41.48 -3.14
Todd Frazier 75.08 77.75 -2.67
Adrian Beltre 83.70 86.37 -2.67
Mark Trumbo 69.72 72.34 -2.62
Brian Dozier 35.50 37.79 -2.29
Max Scherzer 11.25 13.46 -2.21
A.J. Pollock 35.64 37.84 -2.20
Jake Arrieta 33.12 34.89 -1.77
Ian Kinsler 76.17 77.78 -1.61
Xander Bogaerts 28.03 29.58 -1.55
Billy Hamilton 50.78 52.33 -1.55
Andrew McCutchen 68.23 69.41 -1.18
Jonathan Lucroy 53.63 54.73 -1.10
Kyle Schwarber 77.18 78.23 -1.05
Justin Verlander 42.05 43.02 -0.97
Chris Sale 20.81 21.73 -0.92
Zach Britton 57.75 58.53 -0.78
Corey Seager 20.25 20.96 -0.71
Jean Segura 54.24 54.94 -0.70
Jonathan Villar 20.36 21.04 -0.68
Jon Lester 36.30 36.92 -0.62
George Springer 34.20 34.8 -0.60

For what it’s worth, the top five fallers inside the top 100 picks were all players who went down with injuries: David Price, J.D. Martinez, Ian Desmond, David Dahl, and Jason Kipnis (removed from above). While this can sometimes be the cause for inflation of other players’ ADP, the list above provides some interesting takes on names that I’ve seen distinctly different responses on.

One of the most interesting trends is the falling of players whose value is based greatly on steals. Dee Gordon (-3.56), Billy Hamilton (-1.55), and to a lesser extent Jonathan Villar (-.68), are three players that I do not own on any of my five teams so far this year.

The consensus that steals are scarce is something I will always accept, but react to in a different way than many others. I drive up the value of players with power and speed, as opposed to excessive steals production. Think Max Kepler, Kevin Kiemaier, Bryce Harper, and others who give me confidence to eclipse the 20 HR mark, but also a bit of gravy in the steals category. My argument for that strategy is much broader, but I think the point holds even with simplification. While I wasn’t expecting to see this same philosophy reflected in aggregate ADP data, it is worth noting the SAGNOF philosophy is alive and well.

RIP to Buster Posey (-3.14) and Jonathan Lucroy (-1.10), as well as the rest of the catcher position. The only thing that makes me remember that catchers exist are two catcher leagues, and even then I’m always leaning towards the likes of Austin Hedges and Travis d’Arnaud. The community isn’t far off this smell, and rightfully so.

Player ADP on 2/28 ADP on 3/26 Change (+)
Neftali Feliz 301.13 244.45 56.68
Greg Holland 323.98 291.41 32.57
Jarrod Dyson 245.11 220.3 24.81
Francisco Liriano 322.90 298.54 24.36
Jose Peraza 130.69 106.75 23.94
Lance Lynn 305.41 282.01 23.40
Keon Broxton 186.14 165.12 21.02
Cam Bedrosian 223.30 204.06 19.24
James Paxton 182.57 164.33 18.24
Jose Reyes 308.18 291.09 17.09
Travis d’Arnaud 293.96 277.08 16.88
Jharel Cotton 254.85 238.91 15.94
Greg Bird 249.06 233.69 15.37
Alex Cobb 310.64 296.35 14.29
Lance McCullers 178.08 163.99 14.09
Brandon Kintzler 280.06 266.23 13.83
Daniel Norris 292.33 279.06 13.27
Fernando Rodney 266.32 254.01 12.31
Aaron Nola 209.22 197.42 11.80
Austin Hedges 305.31 293.6 11.71
Shawn Kelley 223.78 212.91 10.87
Eric Thames 190.32 179.57 10.75
Ivan Nova 273.45 262.7 10.75
Marcus Stroman 161.12 150.54 10.58
Drew Smyly 222.98 212.4 10.58
Jim Johnson 202.91 192.44 10.47
Garrett Richards 249.31 239.68 9.63
Gio Gonzalez 298.27 288.65 9.62
Matt Wieters 201.06 191.52 9.54
Michael Pineda 212.12 202.6 9.52

No surprise to see a smattering of saves throughout this list of risers. While Neftali Feliz (+56.68) takes the cake as one of the better bargains if you got in on the Brewers’ closer early on, I like the reaction to a player like Jim Johnson (+10.47) even more. Crawling back to the idea I mentioned with Edwin Diaz, pitchers on good teams will, on average, see proportionally more save opportunities and the Braves are one squad heading into 2017. Although the product on the field may not be the playoff bound, with the energy in their new stadium, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Braves follow the path of the Phillies and White Sox of 2016. Strong starts, with sour finishes. Johnson closed the second half of 2016 with a .228 average against, 41 strikeouts over 33.2 innings, and a pristine 2.14 ERA. He’s the clear closer on the team, and although there are some electric arms behind him, the veteran induced confidence he radiates and control he showed at the end of last season, makes me eerily confident that we’ll see a full season of saves from the 33 year old.

A lot of upside arms have also seen an increase in ADP. Lance McCullers (+14.09), Jharel Cotton (+15.94), Lance Lynn (+23.40), and the love of my life, James Paxton (+18.24), all stand out. Each with their own facets of risk, but I wouldn’t be shocked McCullers and Paxton in top 20 SP discussions, with Cotton and Lynn cementing themselves as insanely good values past the 19th round.

Player ADP on 2/28 ADP on 3/26 Change (-)
Chris Carter 260.12 290.97 -30.85
Derek Norris 281.61 310.72 -29.11
Adam Ottavino 162.31 183.35 -21.04
Tyler Thornburg 308.98 323.28 -14.30
Raisel Iglesias 170.89 184.56 -13.67
Orlando Arcia 265.20 278.72 -13.52
Hector Neris 234.63 248.04 -13.41
Drew Pomeranz 215.11 228.2 -13.09
Andrew Miller 105.12 115.92 -10.80
C.J. Cron 231.68 242 -10.32
Dellin Betances 173.05 182.72 -9.67
Josh Bell 287.90 297.27 -9.37
Evan Gattis 103.64 112.14 -8.50
Adrian Gonzalez 168.16 176.55 -8.39
J.A. Happ 189.42 197.36 -7.94
Ben Zobrist 172.74 180.26 -7.52
Matt Harvey 144.56 152.03 -7.47
Ryan Madson 235.21 242.52 -7.31
Jason Heyward 253.55 260.8 -7.25
Kevin Pillar 298.90 305.71 -6.81
Hernan Perez 181.76 188.53 -6.77
Mike Moustakas 202.80 209.47 -6.67
Cameron Maybin 295.78 302.41 -6.63
Josh Harrison 273.70 280.3 -6.60
Jorge Soler 286.65 293.23 -6.58
Collin McHugh 283.88 290.29 -6.41
Julio Urias 166.24 172.29 -6.05
Javier Baez 118.48 124.49 -6.01
Jedd Gyorko 245.71 251.6 -5.89
Hisashi Iwakuma 270.70 276.5 -5.80
Brian McCann 165.89 171.6 -5.71
Brad Miller 161.55 167.24 -5.69
Yoan Moncada 240.34 246 -5.66
Curtis Granderson 279.27 284.89 -5.62
Yangervis Solarte 283.74 289.33 -5.59
Hunter Pence 208.17 213.32 -5.15
Adam Duvall 153.72 158.83 -5.11
Matt Holliday 260.62 265.73 -5.11
Zack Greinke 97.60 102.71 -5.11
Hunter Renfroe 231.20 236 -4.80

I’ll leave you with a few thoughts on two players that I disagree with the ADP fall of in our range.

In deep leagues specifically, with extended benches, Yoan Moncada (-5.66) is a player I would love to stash. There comes a point in where blindly throwing darts for depth is about as successful as Dave Stewart’s GM’ing skills. This makes me inclined to stash players that may not be up for a few months, but with an extended bench, won’t cost me the flexibility of depth at positions I’m weaker at. Think Lewis Brinson, Cody Bellinger, and Bradley Zimmer.

Moncada has all the tools in the world to succeed and while we likely won’t see him up until sometime in June, if there is any player to burst on the scene and win the AL ROY in a Gary Sachez-esque fashion, Moncada is the man. Some hope of breaking camp may have been embedded in the February 26th ADP, which means the fall is reasonable, but I’d be happy to nab the top prospect in baseball just path the 20th round.

Drew Pomeranz (-13.09) is another player whose ADP drop I’m not fully on board with. David Price and his UCL took a leave of absence, and one of the only arms in the depths of the Red Sox’s rotation that intrigues me is Pomeranz. He posted a 3.32 ERA between the Padres and Red Sox last season, with an even more impressive 26.5% strikeout rate. While I always shy away from southpaws in Fenway – see Chris Sales- there is more upside in Pomeranz than his competition, and I’ll pray for his swinging strikes to maintain, rather than banking on the health of Eduardo Rodriguez. Even if he swings from the pen to the rotation, Pomeranz is still a nice late round flyer.

You can follow Lance on Twitter, @LanceBrozdow, if you prefer to act like a proper millennial.

  1. Cheese says:
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    FYI – the charts should probably read 3/26 and not 2/26

    Otherwise this is great and very helpful! Perfect timing for my draft tomorrow.

    • Lance

      Lance says:
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      @Cheese:
      Hmm, should be fine now, I’m not seeing any issues. This is the flux from 2/28 through 3/26 (yesterday), so maybe a bit of confusion! My apologies.

      And no problem, I always fine stuff like this valuable and I’m glad others do too!

      • Cheese says:
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        @Lance: It is fixed now :)

  2. Packers says:
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    Great stuff. Thanks for doing our homework.

    • Lance

      Lance says:
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      @Packers:
      Anytime!

  3. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Based on the results of my three NFBC drafts so far, I should mention to anyone reading this that you’ll probably have to go even higher than the ADPs listed here to get any of the top six positive movers in the top 100 (deGrom, Diaz, Tanaka, Giles, C-Mart, and Myers) in that format. Probably have to go 10-15 picks higher for each of them.

    Peraza has gone in the 80-90 range, Broxton in the 125-140 range, Paxton in the 135-150 range, and Bedrosian in the 140-160 range as well. Holland and Bird have gained steam also. Not likely to see much of a discount on those players.

    Nice post, Lance!

    • Lance

      Lance says:
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      @Big Magoo:
      Completely agree. I mention briefly in the beginning what you’re talking about!

      Because it’s rolling or aggregate ADP data, an 8 spot jump is not at all the actual ADP jump. Degrom in particular is an outlier because his draft stock was already pretty high. Which speaks to your point that he is basically a top 5-8 SP now.

      It’s probably best to look at the change relative to other players of similar overall ADP.

      Appreciate the clarification just in case some missed it in the intro. Thanks man.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Lance: Yup, I saw the disclaimer. Just wanted to hammer the point home to anyone who scrolled right down to those helpful ADP charts that you made that they’re likely to miss on deGrom at pick 60+ or Broxton at pick 150+ in this format if that’s where they’re being targeted. Gotta jump up a bit earlier to get those types of players. Great job again.

        • Lance

          Lance says:
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          @Big Magoo:
          That’s a good point actually.

          I bet a lot of others were just attracted to the visuals haha I know I am.

          Thanks!

        • OldNavy says:
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          In auction draft I paid $3 for Bird I was going to pay up to $18 money I had left. In one snake draft 14 team league hth 11 pitchers went before my 39th pick. It is crazy how much starters and closers are being drafted in the first 100 picks.

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @OldNavy: That’s a great deal on Bird. And yeah, it depends on the format, but high end pitching usually flies off of the board in high stakes and/or weekly leagues. The 200 inning workhorse aces and the elite closers are generally viewed as safer from a performance standpoint (if not a durability standpoint) than the respective hitters in that draft range. They don’t last long.

          • Lance

            Lance says:
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            @OldNavy:
            Gotta love the ability to reallocate $15 hahahaha

    • Sport says:
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      @Big Magoo:

      Big and Lance. I like both of your works (Anything new this year Big?). So here is a question for both of you! I have been offered Salazar (plus a high draft pick) for my Arrieta in a keeper league. He also wants my Kintzler. No problem, usually, but it’s a 15 team league where value on saves is crazy. I also have Daniel Hudson and Koda Glover, so do you like their chances of getting saves for me so I can part with Kintzler?

      • Lance

        Lance says:
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        @Sport:
        Thanks! Appreciate it a lot.

        This one is tough

        It may seem a little contrary to popular belief, but I tend to do that on some things. I have Arrieta and Salazar ranked very close to each other for the coming season. I see a lot of reasons why Arrieta won’t be top 20, even though his floor for wins will likely be pretty high (gimmie the better pitcher over the one with wins any day of the week). A few reasons why for me, and I’d even do so with the continual injuries for Salazar, but I’ll spare you a book.

        Kintzler isn’t a good pitcher either, I have absolutely no problem letting him go. I’d even for a guy like Capps or Barraclough, who we have no idea if they will get saves, but if they do, will be substantially better than Kintzler will ever be. He’s going to be the first performance based closer to lose his job in my opinion. Koda on your team makes me more confident in the move as well.

        I don’t mind being bold here at all.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Sport: Hey Sport! I don’t have the free time to devote to writing a regular column this year, so I’m sitting this one out. Even daily leagues like the RCLs are a bit too time consuming for my schedule, so I’m sticking with the NFBC weekly format. I’ll be popping into the comments whenever I’m able to though.

        As for your question, it depends on how high the draft pick is that would be included in that deal and what caliber of player you’d be able to land with that pick. I’m not a huge fan of Salazar though (control, durability), so unless you think you’d be able to get a high end player with that pick, I’d probably hold there. Hudson and Glover are purely spec plays too (though good ones), so you’d probably be sacrificing saves in the deal as well.

        • Lance

          Lance says:
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          @Big Magoo:
          NFBC Weekly are great leagues Big, I love the weekly lock more than daily personally.

          Focuses on a bit more skill, which I like.

        • Sport says:
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          @Big Magoo:
          Thanks for the feedback from both of you!!! He has offered a sixth rounder. We keep four (2hitters/2pitchers) so it would be a 75-90 value. I think I might try to get his sixth rounder. I have Kluber as my other keeper, and got McCullers as well, but can he stay healthy (just like Salazar)? I also have Melancon, Kintzler is my second closer.

          • Lance

            Lance says:
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            @Sport:
            Nice man. 6th rounder really isn’t too much, especially at 75-90 value. Who do you think you’ll be able to get you hands on with that pick?

            I’d say McCullers is much more of a health risk than Salazar. Danny just has general ailments that keep popping up. McCullers has a clear issue and really not path around it. He throws his knucklecurve (whatever you want to call it) a ton, and that puts precise strain on his elbow. The kid is an unbelievable pitcher when healthy, I can’t deny that, but even if he throws 180 this season I don’t think he’ll escape the injury risk. It’s going to linger like Tanaka and Richards have felt and will feel, for a while.

            I still am going Salazar though, I just really don’t like Arrieta this season. It may be a bit of my bias coming through and I completely acknowledge and understand Big’s side to this argument as well.

  4. Longbeachyo says:
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    Quick trade question… Mccullers and Springer for Betts? It’s a 6×6 league w/ obp & k/bb + qs (not W)
    Thanks!

    • Lance

      Lance says:
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      @Longbeachyo:
      This is an interesting one man.

      I particularly am not one of the Betts top 5’ers heading into drafts. I actually have Harper ahead in roto, call me crazy, but it was a decision I made prior to Spring. I just think a lot of the production Betts had doesn’t have the most impressive peripherals to back it up in the coming season. He’s still an elite talent, don’t get me wrong, but I’m gonna take a discernible skill like the elite upside Harper brings in both HR/SB over the 230+ potential in the counting stats dept that impresses the most when looking at prior year stats.

      Circling back to your trade here, however, I think I would ship both those for Betts.

      The amount of risk embedded in McCullers is extremely obvious, as with any pitcher who use some a breaking ball that much, and if he’s all that the Betts owner desires to get this deal done, I’m fine with shipping the upside for a player like Betts, who has a very high floor despite my criticism.

      The 6×6 format with OBP and K/BB only helps the Betts side.

      Best of luck!

  5. malamoney

    malamoney says:
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    Nice work Lance. How are you ranking Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Quintana, Gerrit Cole and Danny Duffy?

    • Lance

      Lance says:
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      @malamoney:
      Malamoney! Thanks man.

      I actually have them all within 8 spots of each other on my SP board.

      Tanaka, Quintana, Cole, and Duffy, is how I have them. Which is conveniently how you have them. I like Cole a lot this year at his value, he’s who I have ended up with most. Quintana with the high floor, Tanaka you will have to pay up for it seems. Duffy with the FB – HR problems pushes him to the bottom for me (but still top 30).

  6. curse says:
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    just got offered t story for my g Stanton ,,,,,,,yes or no

    • Lance

      Lance says:
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      @curse:
      Hmmmmmm.

      Give me your format, but I have Story ranked ahead in roto.

      • Curse says:
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        @Lance: 12 team espn h2h points

        • Lance

          Lance says:
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          @Curse:
          Both gonna K a ton, which isn’t too appealing in pts, it’s close, but I’ll take Story for relative health, Coors, and the SS factor.

  7. Cheese says:
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    Trade offer proposed, their I. Desmond for my G. Sanchez. Roto (6×6), unlimited keeper (forever).

    Thoughts? Was maybe going to try to parlay my Sanchez for their Noah but their SP staff is thin.

    • Lance

      Lance says:
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      @Cheese:
      I’m gonna take Sanchez if keeper forever.

      You have a shot to score a generational catcher and are giving up a player who has had his struggles in his career. Catchers suck, but Sanchez is the clear #1 in dynasty (and has a shot at being the better player in 2017).

      • Cheese says:
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        @Lance:

        Awesome, thanks!

  8. ThE sHiT says:
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    Nice work Lance, very helpful for my draft 2moro!

Comments are closed.