While most things stay the same, the more they don’t change. I believe this is the old adage that I read on the men’s room urinal wall. I had to skip past the “For a good time call or be here at 7:00 PM for a good time” stuff, but that struck me as something that made sense so I am running with it. How it relates to steals this week is that steals are a patterned beast. Last year there were 2,527 steals across MLB by all 30 teams. The number of importance right now is the number from the leadoff spot in the mine-up. That number is 674 steals, or 27.5% of all the teams steals came from the top of the order. For your curiosity, the next four spots with steals frequency are 2nd, 8th, 7th and 9th. The next four spots combined to make up nearly 40% of the remaining steals. Which, if you are a math wizard, steals aren’t the favorite destination for the meat of the order. Now, not every hitter hit at the top of the lineup last year. So figuring out who is going to hit where in the lineup and predicting that teams propensity to steam from that spot is the trick. Digging a little deeper and some other SAGNOF tidbits are after the jump…
So staying on topic here, let’s use examples… Because who doesn’t like useless example of cherry picked stats? I am using Byron Buxton for this exercise. Last year he had 29 steals in 30 attempts. Good for top-seven in all of baseball. He had 21 of those steals from the 7-9 spots in the order, while OBP demon Brian Dozier manned the leadoff and managed 16 steals from that position. Dozier is fully expected to man the initial batting spot in the Twins lineup, but what if he doesn’t? That is what I am questioning on the capability of guys like Buxton. Now, I am no fool and understand that stealing a base is an individual based stat and you have to get on base to actually steal a base, but based on teams propensity to steal from the leadoff spot more often than not drafting straight leadoff hitters for steals acumen seems to be a when in doubt draft him instead type strategy.
So for giggles let’s look at the opposite effect from what I just discussed with Buxton, who steals more from the other spots in the lineup. What about guys who only steal from the leadoff spot but are in a battle to do so? Look at A.J. Pollack and David Peralta in Arizona. Both popular SAGNOF players based on season projections, but what if Pollack hits second and Peralta hits first which has been discussed? Last year, Peralta had more steals from the second spot in the lineup, compared to Pollack having more in the top spot. So it is either by opportunity or placement, but drafting as a speculative bet on Pollack leading off and Peralta hitting second or vice versa could make a difference of 5 steals here and 5 steals there. So here are some more potential leadoff guys that are being drafted lower but have that sassy SAGNOF appeal…
Tim Beckham – His second half last year vaulted a ton of hype into this season… or did it? Currently being drafted in the 260 range on NFBC and is currently projected to hit in the first slot for the slugging Showalters. Had elite speed coming up through the minors, posting multiple 20-steal seasons. Unfortunately, speed is not the Orioles game as they are a bash and base to base team. Needs to improve on the second half .328 OBP to be a real threat, but would you complain if he went 25/10 from the leadoff spot as the 26th middle infielder off the board?
Yoan Moncada – If the juice and AP wasn’t already rising crazy, the thought that he has almost 30 at-bats from the top spot for the Pale Hose. Has the wheels and the OBP in the minors to say he could be that guy to be the table setter. Currently being taken in round 10-11 in most drafts, and that number should only increase once he has his spot in everyday lineup figured out.
Leonys Martin – Seems to have the ultimate spot for the Tigers on most days. Current ADP is a SAGNOF fifth outfielders dream, at 400-plus. He also has the bats behind him to scare pitchers into paying attention, just can he get on base enough to have sustainability on an everyday basis. I think he can do just enough on a Tigers team that will struggle this year.
Ian Kinsler – Maybe I’m old, but how are more people in love with Ian this year? ADP isn’t killer, but the counting stats for his career, plus the opportunity to score 110 plus runs this year is just too tantalizing to take. The Angels had 27 steals from the leadoff last year which is a top 10 number with guys like Revere and Yunel Escobar being some of the culprits there. Draft Kinsler, do it for me.
Brandon Nimmo – Injuries may get him to opening day in the outfield, his OBP and base skills may plant him atop the Metropolitan’s lineup. Great bats behind him just like the Leonys love fest I just threw at ya. Conforto return and his own success are the two biggest handcuffs. Mr. Handcuffs says” those are some big things, btw”.
Denard Span – Seems like he goes from one team to another, and is like Joe Louis old. But he still has above average OBP skills for a geezer in SAGNOF terms. the Rays are a moshed up bunch of bats in weird spots, but no true first. Span fits the bill and with 176 career Sb’s and a career OBP of .348 he is the best the Rays have at their disposal right now.
10/150 9th
