Like anything else at Razzball, I strive to find humor in the face of Fantasy Baseball. I devote this article to Razzball reader and commenter Brent who wrote last week in the comments, “Such a strange article. How can an article about steals not even mention Jacob Young. And Oswaldo Cabrera has one single steal this year. Not 11.” Well, Brent wanted Jacob Young so I am delivering. Brent also couldn’t be bothered to read that the Speed Dials section of the article includes 2023 stats as well, but I digress.
This also goes out to our resident in house songwriters SON and CoolWhip. Below is my version of Teach Your Base Stealers.
You, who are on the road (81 games a year)
Must have a code
That you can live by
And so become SAGNOF
Because the base is just a goodbye
Teach your baserunners well
Their tardy jumps are hell
They slowly go by
And feed them on your dreams
The one they swipe
The tags they’ll slide by
Don’t you ever ask them, “Why?”
If they’re thrown out you would cry
So, just look at them and sigh
And know we love you
And you of rookie years (Can you hear and do you care)
Can’t know my fears (And can you see)
That your knees will tear by (You must be Healthy)
And so please help (To teach your rookies)
Them with your health (What you believe in)
They seek the SAGNOF (Make a world)
Before they can’t run (That we can Speed Dial in)
Teach your baserunners well
Their tardy jumps are hell
They slowly go by
And feed them on your dreams
The one they swipe
The tags they’ll slide by
Don’t you ever ask them, “Why?”
If they’re thrown out you would cry
So, just look at them and sigh
And know we love you
Thank you, I’ll be here all week.
Onto the SAGNOF. Let’s talk about Jacob Young. He’s available most places only being owned in 13% of leagues at ESPN. He’s tied for fifth in steals in MLB with 12, has hit for average at .308, and scored 20 runs already this season, a lot of which he was hitting out of the #9 spot.
Now that batting average is likely to regress a bit, but his K-rate in the majors across the last two seasons is at 16.9% with a BB-Rate at 6.3%. His swinging strike percent this year sits at just 5%. I wouldn’t expect a batting average below .250, and while he won’t get you any power he will get on base, steal bags, and score some runs for you.
Now the really juicy SAGNOF stuff. Jacob Young is 10th in MLB in sprint speed, and he is 25 for 26 on stolen bases in MLB across 2023 and 2024. He has been hitting in the leadoff spot the last week or so when in the lineup which has really upped his value.
So what’s the Jacob Young downside? His name is Victor Robles (And the rest of the injured Nats OF) and he will be coming back this week I would think as he is currently hitting .350 on a rehab assignment at AAA. Here’s some fun Robles facts. He has had just one fantasy worthy season in MLB in 2019 where he hit .255 with 17 Home Runs and 28 stolen bases. This is his 8th season in the big leagues, and he has only reached 400 At-bats twice because of injury and poor play. His 2023 Small sample size showed much improved plate discipline. He is only 26 years old and this guy has had more chances to make things happen in MLB than I did as a bartender in my twenties.
So with Robles coming back up what does that do for the dynamic within the Nats lineup? I think they’ll have four primary OFs in Young, Robles, Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario, (They’ll have more decisions to make as Joey Gallo is due back soon too, also being out on a rehab assignment. Lane Thomas also won’t be out too long) I think Robles will play vs all lefties and might steal one start a week from Young. Once Gallo/Thomas get back all bets are off until we find out if someone if getting cut or what the dynamic will be. Hopefully Jacob Young can just hit himself into the lineup going forward.
Here’s the current Stolen Base Leader Board through Monday, May 6th
Still seeing the leaderboard with Elly atop of it. My Pre-season favorite Jose Caballero is currently tied with Acuna at 14 stolen bases…and 2 Home runs.
The Speed Dials
We went 1 of 4 last week. Remember these are exact dates to pickup and stream steals guys in daily leagues. That means we are now 6 for 24 on the season. Reminder these stats and analysis includes 2023 and 2024 data.
Cardinals vs Mets – Wednesday May 8th
Masyn Winn – Masyn will face off against Jose Quintana and the Mets today and look to pick up his 6th steal of the season. Since the start of 2023 across AAA and the majors he is 24 for 28 on the basepaths. He isn’t the fastest spring speed in MLB, but checks in just outside the top 50 at 28.6 Ft/second. Quintana allows .080 SB/IP and opponents have a 90% success rate running against him. The catcher will either be Tomas Nido who is in the top half of catchers in throwing rating, or Omar Narvaez who is a imperfect 17 for 17 in allowing runners to steal bases.
Diamondbacks vs Reds – Thursday May 9th
Jake McCarthy– Jake hasn’t taken off anywhere near the rate he did in 2023 despite an OBP over 40 points higher and a similar rate of ABs. Sprint speed is tied for 27th in MLB at 29.0 ft/second and he’s 29 for 34 on the bases the last two seasons. Hunter Greene will oppose with a .151 SB/IP and opponents succeeding at 82.1%. Reds catchers aren’t the best in MLB, Luke Maile has a 23% rate of throwing out runners while Tyler Stephenson hasn’t cut anyone down since 2022.
Rockies vs Rangers – Friday May 10th
Brenton Doyle – Doyle has gotten on base at a much higher clip than last season, but doesn’t have the bags to show for it yet on pace for 14 steals vs 22 last season. He’ll face off against Jon Gray and the Rangers Friday night. Gray actually moves to home rather well and has 32% of runners against him cut down, but the sheer level of traffic puts him as a target. Jonah Heim is 41st of 57 qualified catchers in cutting down opposing base runners.
Marlins vs Phillies – Saturday May 11th
Jesus Sanchez -After only stealing three bases in 2023, Sanchez already has five stolen bases this year in 300 less plate appearances. His sprint speed is actually below MLB average at 27.4 ft/second, but I think after watching a few of his steals he gets a nice jump and Skip may have noticed that and is giving him a green light a bit more. His opposing battery mates are likely Spencer Turnbull and J.T. Realmuto. Turnbull can be run on with a .123 SB/IP and 100% opponent success rate. J.T. on the other hand is one of the better catchers throwing guys out cutting down 24% the last two seasons.
As always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Love the lyrics — you even nailed the harmony vocals in the 2nd verse.
Thanks. It’s a gift.
Nice.