List season continues this week here at Razzball. It’s a stressful time for yours truly, if I’m honest with myself, as I don’t have time to write about everything I’m noticing just under the surface of prospect world. Stress isn’t negative all the time. It’s also exciting in this case. Tickles the geek inside my haunted carnival of a baseball mind to check in with each and every prospect and rearrange them rung by rung, tier by tier.
I’ll try to stay concise in between the tiers here, but you can access a more in-depth consideration of each individual player by clicking on their names or skimming around in the 2022 Minor League Preview Index.
Here’s a link to the top 25, Prospect Rankings Update: Corbin Carroll Headlines Top 25 for June 22.
26. OF Jackson Chourio | Brewers | 18 | A | 2024
Chourio gets his own tier because he’s kind of on his own island at the moment. If you asked ten prospect-tracking people to pick the number one guy by this time next season, you’d probably hear Chourio’s name more than once.
27. 3B Josh Jung | Rangers | 24 | AAA | 2022
28. 3B Jose Miranda | Twins | 23 | MLB | 2022
29. SS Marco Luciano | Giants | 20 | A+ | 2023
30. OF Brennen Davis | Cubs | 22 | AAA | 2023
A healthy Josh Jung is a top ten guy. Torn left labrum is scary stuff for any ballplayer, but especially for a right handed power hitter. That front shoulder is doing a lot of work.
Jose Miranda is a pretty good example of a front-shoulder-dominant hitter, reminiscent of Albert Pujols to my eyes. He didn’t start his career like Pujols did, but that was only ever a stylistic comparison. He’s still having the swings-at-everything problem some premium contact hitters experience at the highest level, but he’s also slashing .361/.378/.722 with 3 HR and a 218 wRC+ over his last 11 games. I’d say he’s rewarding the organization for its confidence in him, but Minnesota demoted him in the middle of this stretch.
You could argue to put Marco Luciano lower. I wouldn’t quibble with dropping a no-speed, low-contact power bat, but hope remains that Luciano becomes something better than that. He reduced his strikeout rate by 14 percent year-over-year in High-A after scuffling for a 36 game stretch there last season. Have to be wary of the phrase “repeating the level” when it’s used in contexts like this one. I mean, sure, it’s technically true, I guess, but it’s not the same as spending a full season somewhere and then not graduating in the eyes of your organization. It will be interesting to see how the team handles his early success because it currently looks like he’ll be in AA as a 20-year-old before the year ends.
If I can give Jung a pass despite a frightening injury with potentially deleterious impacts over the long term, I can extend the same courtesy to Brennen Davis, who doesn’t have Jung’s plate skills but brings big power upside in an era (is each new permutation of the baseball an “era” now?) where that’s dwindling. Davis had surgery to alleviate a vascular malformation that pushed against a nerve, which sounds a little like blood clots and seems scary in ways well beyond baseball, but we’ve got little choice but to hope for the best. Might be a good time to buy if a contender is looking to use his spot in your league, but I would definitely want discount pricing.
31. OF Esteury Ruiz | Padres | 23 | AAA | 2022
32. 2B Ezequiel Duran | Rangers | 22 | MLB | 2022
33. RHP Edward Cabrera | Marlins | 23 | MLB | 2021
And now we reach Oddball Herrera’s moment on the list. Major credit and thanks to Oddball for pointing me in Esteury Ruiz’s direction on a bi-weekly basis in this space. Hope you read the comments and nabbed Esteury early in your leagues because he’s looking like a star. Hasn’t slowed down either as I’ve been checking his lines just about every day, slashing .361/.429/.778 with 4 HR and 8 SB over his last ten games. Preposterous.
Ezequiel Duran is one of those really irritating guys I liked way before it was cool but don’t have anywhere now that’d I could use him in every single league. I did a solo podcast back in 2019 and rambled on and on about Duran. Wish I’d listened to myself.
When healthy, Edward Cabrera features otherworldly stuff, such as a 94 mph changeup, 83 mph slider and 99 mph fastball. He looks healthy and unhittable at the moment.
34. 2B Vidal Bruján | Rays | 24 | MLB | 2021
35. 3B Elehuris Montero | Rockies | 23 | AAA | 2022
36. C Henry Davis | Pirates | 22 | AA | 2023
I’m concerned about Brujan being disproportionately damaged by the new big league fooly balls. He’s looked good on defense, and Tampa tends to give plus defenders a lot of time to figure out the hitting side of their game. Brujan is drilling everything into the ground, but he’s still showing positive plate skills (8% BB, 14.7%) and might be able to find some holes in time (.155 BABIP). I’m not thrilled to see he’s 1-for-4 stealing bases, but I saw two of those CS happen in the moment, and they could not have been closer.
Elehuris Montero got promoted again this week. He’s limiting strikeouts and producing power at AAA, so let’s hope he gets an extended opportunity. That’s never gone wrong, right? Hoping the Rockies will play a guy who has nothing left to prove in the minors?
I’m impressed Davis is already in AA after dominating High-A for 22 games (179 wRC+). Trouble is he’s been on the IL since mid May or he might have landed even higher. He only got two games in at Double-A but homered in his first.
37. OF Robert Hassell III | Padres | 20 | A+ | 2023
38. C Francisco Alvarez | Mets | 20 | AA | 2023
39. OF George Valera | Guardians | 21 | AA | 2023
40. 1B Triston Casas | Red Sox | 22 | AAA | 2022
41. OF Michael Harris II | Atlanta | 21 | MLB | 2022
42. OF Pete Crow-Armstrong | Cubs | 20 | A | 2025
Robert Hassell is another guy who’s repeating a level but not really repeating a level. After struggling for 18 games in High-A last year, he’s come on strong in 2022, slashing .305/.374/.449 with 6 HR 15 SB in 43 games.
There’s nothing in New York to stop Francisco Alvarez from his multi-season charge to claim that job. His ETA says 2023 here because that’s a veteran team with an inside lane on the playoffs, but he could debut this season and make the playoff roster if he stays hot. Pretty rare for a catcher to accelerate his timeline like that though.
Feels like George Valera has been around forever, but he’s just 21 and sailing through AA slashing .281/.388/.491 with 8 HR, 2 SB and plus plate skills (14.4% BB, 23.9% K).
I don’t know what to do with Triston Casas, who I’ve never liked as much as consensus. He deserves a spot, but his .248/.359/.457 slash line is less than you’d expect from a corner bopper the prospect world loves to hype.
I can’t overstate how much I love typing “crow” into a search bar and finding the baseball player I want. He’s yet to be really tested in the lower minors, but his defense is good enough to float the profile through some potential barren patches.
43. SS Marcelo Mayer | Red Sox | 19 | A | 2025
44. RHP Max Meyer | Marlins | 23 | AAA | 2022
45. RHP Camilo Doval | Giants | 24 | MLB | 2021
The Sawx elected to send Marcelo Mayer to full-season ball, where he’s slashing .323/.393/.527 despite a 29 percent strikeout rate.
While hitters get patience when they turn up on the injured list, pitchers get punished in the list-making math. Maybe Max Meyer is just fine after resting with ulnar nerve irritation, but that’s not a bet I’m willing to place.
Camilo Doval hasn’t been dominant this season, but he has been the Giants closer stretching back their playoff run last season. Not often we have a no-doubt saves-accumulator on the prospect list. I’d trade a lot of guys above him for Doval straight up in the right scenario.
46. OF James Wood | Padres | 19 | A | 2025
47. SS Cristian Hernandez | Cubs | 18 | CPX | 2025
48. C Gabriel Moreno | Blue Jays | 22 | AAA | 2022
49. SS Masyn Winn | Cardinals | 20 | AA | 2023
50. OF Luis Matos | Giants | 20 | A+ | 2024
James Wood returned to the field on June 7 after about a month on the shelf. Have to consider injuries a small factor here because Wood is such a unicorn: a 6’7” center fielder with plus speed and double-plus power.
One nice thing about Cristian Hernandez is the power should play even with the fooly balls. It’s aggressive to run him up the list before he faces any full-season pitching, but the topside here is tremendous. He homered in his first game in the complex league this season, for what it’s Weurtz.
Gabriel Moreno hasn’t hit for power this season, which is a little concerning when he’s trying to break into a tightly contested catching corps. I still like the player a lot, but his timeline is drifting back to the future.
Masyn Winn has cleared hurdles beyond his age and come back from dreadful slumps to get hot again. His power upside remains in question, but the speed, contact and defensive skills give him a fast path to playing time.
The big league baseball creates new questions for Moreno, Winn and this last name in the fifty: Luis Matos, who I think has the power and plate-skills to overcome it, even if it slows his ascent to an everyday role. He’s mostly here because he slumped and then got hurt. I think the hit tool would’ve proven out given more time.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
Hey Itch!
What’s your take on Gelof so far this season? Seems like the only A’s prospect that is hitting at a good clip other than Langeliers (who has gone a bit cold since his scorching hot start).
I’m curious as to your thoughts on Emmanuel Rodriguez and Carson Williams. Are they top 100 players for you? What do you think of James Wood? Too small a sample size at the moment, but he seems to have a better hit tool than we previously thought.
Just looked again and noticed that Wood’s in your top 50 already. My bad.
Where do you rank a guy like Taj Bradley? He looks pretty solid this year and not sure many people know about him.
Hey Itch would love your thoughts on a trade. Trout for Pete Crow Armstrong, Marcelo Mayer, and Noelvi Marte. Dynasty league. Thank you!
Hi Itch!
Any reason why Liover Peguero didn’t move up? I thought his showing this year merited some progression.
Also, do you see Evan Carter moving up. He has flashed great tools this year.
Hi
Can you delete this message?
Did Luis Garcia graduate from prospect status or miss your top 50? If the former where would you slot him? Thanks!
Thanks Itch! Great stuff.
I am looking to fill a couple bench spots with potential keepers for next year in my $1000 H2H Daily Points League. These guys can be kept for $20 next year. I am aiming for maximal upside in the next 2-3 years and don’t care if they give me anything this year.
I currently have:
$20 Corbin Carroll
$20 Oneil Cruz
$20 Andrew Vaughn
$20 Keibert Ruiz
$40 Adley Rutschman
$40 Spencer Tork
$40 Jared Walsh
I need two more from the list below who would cost me $20 to keep next year unless noted otherwise, also, would you cut any of the above to pick a 3rd or 4th from below?
Trent Grisham
Steven Kwan
Alec Bohm
Jesus Sanchez
Ramon Laureano
Trevor Larnach
Nick Senzel
Tristan Casas
Miguel Vargas
Josh Lowe
Robert Hassell
Noelvi Marte
Jordan Walker
Anthony Volpe
CJ Abrams ($40)
Really appreciate any thoughts you have!
I should also note that any other prospects that you deem more fitting than those I listed would be great to have your stamp of approval on as well! Thanks!
Itch, Thx for the rankings! Realistic scenario for Ben Joyce to join a MLB bullpen in the fall and be the closer next year?
Thanks, Gordeon!
Better chance he’s a closer somewhere next year than joins a pen this year, I think, but it’s not out of the question. Would be a tremendous achievement on Joyce’s part.
I can keep anywhere from 2-4 minors each year. I generally like to keep guys that are close to the bigs in case they get called up and can help my squad that season, with the exception of young guys with huge upside. Current minors on my roster are Oneil Cruz, Jung, Miguel Vargas, Matos, and Pasquantino (and Kelenic but that was unplanned…womp womp).
Eury Perez, Elly de la Cruz, Tovar, Lawler and Gunnar Henderson are all available from your top 25. Should I make any swaps in your itchy opinion?
Eury, Gunnar and Tovar top the list given the proximity angle.
You probably won’t be able to keep Cruz or Vinnie as minor leaguers, depending on your settings.
Jung, Eury, Tovar, Vargas, Gunnar, Elly . . . would be my focus
I know that’s six not four. I’d do my best to squeeze Elly on there depending how the season goes.
i visit this site everyday just to see if you posted anything. maybe i have a problem. but i will say the first time i saw miranda swing, the name that came to mind was pujols. thanks for the great content
I was reading this as I walked out of a meeting and stopped in my tracks. Feels awesome to read comments like this one. Thanks, Chilly!
Yes Ruiz! I think this is an appropriate ranking that encapsulates a guy who has some scouting red flags, isn’t exactly young for his level, but has been putting up truly absurd numbers. Best offensive player in professional baseball level numbers.
He is up in AAA now and hit a homer this evening though apparently everyone on the team did, that’s the PCL for you. I will be watching that BB:K rate (and the Padres horrible outfield) like a hawk because whether or not that carries over from AA is the biggie
also worth noting he was playing LF tonight
When do you think Ruiz might have an opportunity ? SD seems to want to stick with its OF and 2B slots so does he need an injury (or multiple injuries) to get the call?
I’m not sure what Oddball thinks of the timeline, but I just sped it up a bit knowing they jumped him to AAA, which means mid-season all-star games should have no impact on his timeline. Nomar Mazara might stick this time, is one potential surprise factor. He was dominating in AAA, and he’s only 27. Stranger things have happened.
Thanks for doing this. Not feeling super great about Noelvi Marte falling off the list entirely. I know the stats are underwhelming but sheesh, that’s a steep fall. Is Tovar a better long term SS stash at this point? He certainly seems closer to the bigs.
Tovar is going to be a top 5 prospect going into next year, plus he looks like a lock to stick at SS AND to have Coors going for him. I am not sure there is a SS I would stash over him, especially because Gunnar looks destined for 3B
Though Gunnar to third May be an upgrade considering positional scarcity!
Yeah I agree with Oddball Herrera and your initial question: Tovar > Marte in just about every fantasy way. Marte probably has a little better top exit velo ceiling, but that’s only relevant when you’re making perfect contact.
Hey Itch, always love the work and appreciate the perspective.
How close is Joey Wiemer to your top 50?
Hey fivepoundbass,
And thanks for the kind words!
Close. Wiemer coming up quick.
How close is Brayan Bello to being on this list? What are your thoughts on him?
I think he’s good. Stuff is certainly strong enough to survive in the AL East as a starter. Velocity has ticked up year-over-year for a few seasons now. Pretty Sunny forecast for him at the moment.
I don’t mean to be dismissive with “good.” I started to say something about how I really into Bello in this space years ago and have been a little surprised how long it’s taken for him to get much shine, but I struggle to say that kind of stuff, so here it is in an after-comment comment because I didn’t like how that first one reads off the top.
drop which of these for chourio? hedbert, j.allen, pereira?
dang, I don’t wanna drop any of em, but I think you could get Pereira or Hedbert back, so I’d drop one or the other in that order.
Dustin Harris was previously 28. Where do you slot him now? I have him in a couple of leagues.
He’s coming up quick. Speed floats the profile even if he’s not mashing, but he does have to mash to make room for himself on a big league roster because he’s not a plus defender, and his 99 wRC+ in 43 AA games is doing him no favors. It’s sort of just bad timing that he’s in a slump right now as we take this particular snapshot.
He got super hot mid-season last year and just kept getting hotter, and he’s 10-for-12 stealing bases, so I wouldn’t drop him anywhere just yet.
itch, your stuff is amazing
with e.ruiz, we dont have minors, just 2 NA slots, which i have o.cruz and j.walker in right now and already have vinnie p wasting a bench spot.
does ruiz require a spot on my bench when vinnie eventually gets the call? How close do you think this is happening and possibly making an impact this year?
Thanks, Umpy70!
I wish he were in AAA. Would make this math a bit easier, but San Diego has never been an every-step-of-the-way kind of developmental org, so it might not matter.
I do think he’s a sharp add when Vinnie’s spot clears. Has difference-making potential. Could honestly be any day now. Could be he stays in the minors all year. Sorry that’s not real helpful, but I don’t have a good read on Preller’s plans at the moment.
Ruiz is in AAA?
just recently
Excellent . . . (in my best Mr. Burnes voice)
Thanks for the heads up! I wondered why he hadn’t played since last week. Seems he’s been traveling/moving. Debuted in AAA yesterday.
Itch I love it …. Ok to drop Yepez for Ruiz ? 12 team keep 10 + 12 farm/stash …. Thank you per usual
Thanks, Lower the Jolly Roger!
Yepez is coming up quick on the list, assuming he’s still eligible by Sunday, and I suspect you have time to shop him before pulling that lever. If no takers on Yepez and you don’t need him for this year, I do think Ruiz is the better long-term piece.