After focusing on pitchers last week, I felt that we should examine what makes a good points league hitter. We already know the total bases are the main points driver when you boil it down. Home runs are worth 6 points but 4 of them come from touching all the bases. Go to a list of all players and sort by total bases, while it may not match the top 10 points scorers, but all those players are doing quite well.
So lets get started with the top 10 hitters on the season.
Shohei Ohtani – 241 Still great, still a cheat code, still an outlier as a fantasy asset.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 216 Your current points leader among batters and also tied for the home run lead.
Ronald Acuna Jr – 183 Matching Vlad’s home run totals and proving worthy of being the number one pick.
Jose Ramirez -175 The fabled 30/30 season may not happen but 30/20 should be well within reach.
Nick Castellanos – 168 The breakout I didn’t see coming. His preseason projection put him in the top 50. Good, but not nearly this good.
J.D. Martinez – 167 Just Dong has been more than that this season with an average north of .300.
Matt Olson – 165 He’s been excellent, with good power while maintaining a very solid average.
Kris Bryant – 164 Enjoying a nice bounce back season and rewarding those that took a chance handsomely.
Fernando Tatis Jr – 163 Making it a three way tie at the top of the home run leader board. I imagine he would be challenging for the top spot if he hadn’t missed time due to injury.
Max Muncy – 163 Mad Max is raking and with that lineup around him, the points should keep flowing.
Marcus Semien – 160 What a season so far. His team mates may have stolen the hype preseason but right now he’s only looking up at Vlad.
The list could go on and on and indeed there are quite a number of guys who check in around the 150 point mark on the season. Now, all of these guys obviously have high total base counts. Runs, RBIs and steals are nice, but total bases drive points leagues. That’s hardly new information if you’ve been following my columns (thanks loyal readers, you da real MVPs) but what we haven’t gotten into yet is how to project that and to identify guys who could be heading for a breakout.
It would be great if there was a single stat that could tell us everything we need to know. But is there? Well lets take a look. We can’t use batting average (AVG), like roto leagues because it doesn’t account for total bases. a 2 for 4 night with a couple singles is the same as if they were doubles as far as average is concerned. Yet the pair of doubles would net you 4 points instead of only 2. On base percentage (OBP) is better because it includes walks but that still doesn’t help with multi base knocks. That’s where slugging percentage (SLG) comes in. This actually accounts for total bases and weights them appropriately. Now we have two stats that tell us more for points leagues than AVG, although neither paint the whole picture. Fortunately there’s one more ratio stat we can use. OPS is simply adding OBP and SLG. Sorting by OPS yields a top 10 list with seven of the top point scorers (Vlad, Castellanos, Acuna, Bryant, Muncy, Just Dong, Olson) although the order isn’t identical. Semien checks in at 12, Shohei at 15 and JoRam at 21 so fairly close to the top 10. Tatis doesn’t have enough at bats to qualify for the MLB global list but his OPS of 1.087 would put him second only to Vlad.
Now unfortunately there are a couple issues with OPS for fantasy. One, it does not factor in runs, RBIs or steals. The only stat that shows us total fantasy points, is… drumroll… total fantasy points. And second because of the at bat qualifier not every player appears on the season long list. MLB does allow you to change the filter to only look at the past 7, 15, or 30 days. The Player Rater is the probably the best way to evaluate player performance because while it is geared towards category leagues, it does include OPS. The takeaway is to use all the tools. And when taking advantage of the player rater’s rest of season projections, make sure you look at the OPS projection. That is the best indication of total bases. The way I see it is that the more total bases you have the more opportunities for runs. And for the speed guys, you can’t steal second if you never get to first. RBIs are a little harder to square in relation to total bases but you could look at it as a double has a higher chance of scoring a runner from first than a single does. It’s not a perfect analogy, but you can view total bases similarly to innings for a pitcher. A bankable stat that provides the baseline. Everything else is icing on the cake.
And of course I can’t leave you without some wavier pickups.
Tyler O’Neill is probably rostered, but he’s playing too well for you to not take a peek.
Jonathan Schoop is cooking with gas. Unfortunately, the Tigers don’t offer him a ton of help, but deeper and more desperate leagues he can offer some relief. And really, with the way the injury report has been growing, who isn’t in a desperate league this year?
James McCann can give you a boost at catcher if you’ve been getting a whole lotta nothin. He could just be the flavor of the week, but there could be more than that here. Pick him up and find out.
Pavin Smith is a guy I told you grab previously. At least some of you listened as his roster percentage has roughly doubled, but he’s still out there in many a league. If he is, grab him for your corner infield.
Patrick Wisdom is out there for all of you in deep leagues that have been ravaged by injuries. Even if it’s just a flash in the pan, 21 points in a week should get your attention. As long as the Cubs have injury issues of their own, he should at least have regular at bats.
Kolten Wong has been a top 10ish second baseman. That’s not sexy, but it’ll get the job done.
Mauricio Dubon has put up respectable point totals for a utility man. However, he could find himself in the lineup everyday with the Giants recent injury situation. That would make him much more interesting.
As always, drop you comments here or hit me up on Twitter @deltaxi1842
