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Did anyone actually see that The Adjustment Bureau movie?  I only remember the trailer, but I imagine a lot of those dudes in bowler hats tinkering with Jeff Samardzija yesterday.  Sheesh!  As Lone Star would say to Princess Vespa, “WELCOME TO REAL LIFE!”  PS – go Brewers.

Anyway, whilst Samardzija got dusted by the regression fairies, Roenis Elias is a guy I’ve thought about a few times cracking my weekly top 100, but I could never pull the trigger.  I spot started him here-and-there across a few leagues with middling results, and the few times I’ve watched him, he’s been kinda blah.  Given it wasn’t my full attention… Big looping curveball and a decent heater from a lefty is good enough for the Majors, but is it good enough for your mixed fantasy league?  Then I saw he went all shutty-outty on the Tigers yesterday, and felt he warranted a harder, GIFfy look.  As a guy available in a ton of shallower leagues, I decided he’d be a perfect candidate for this week’s Profiling:

First Inning: Elias opens the game with a 91 MPH fastball to Rajai Davis for a called strike one.  Another heater is a tad outside and slapped foul, then that big bender at 79 gets Davis to dribble it to third, and a great barehand play by Kyle Seager gets the speedy Davis by a step.  Big play there – easily could’ve been an infield hit.  A 92 MPH fastball is fouled by Ian Kinsler, then a change-up at 87 – that didn’t look like a good pitch – gets belted to center, but James Jones tracks it right in front of the track for a pretty hard-hit out.  Some good fortune early on.  And up is the big fellah – Miguel Cabrera takes a fastball low, another heater is way outside, change-up at 87 is cut on and missed, fastball on the hands at 93 is fouled back, then a nasty 80 MPH curveball bending 10-4 gets Cabrera swinging to end the inning. That curve is nasty, and 93 from a lefty’s heater with deception is solid, but I don’t like that change-up only 5 MPH slower, even though Miggy did miss one.

Second Inning: Shockingly getting a run of support off Max Scherzer early, Elias starts Victor Martinez with a fastball low, again is low, then is outside – 3-0.  Can’t blame Elias for being tentative to V-Mart.  And another fastball is outside, four-pitch walk.  I understand the caution, but on all fastballs.  Hmmm.  But he’s right back in the zone with a heater to Torii Hunter 0-1, Hunter fouls off a curve, then a high fastball at 92 ties up Hunter who can’t quite hold up his swing for Elias’ 2nd K.  That was a bad looking hack – fooled him there.  Fastball on the outside to Austin Jackson – that looked mighty outside – then a nasty change-up at 85 gets AJax to whiff, 0-2.

Elias-ChangeUp

Man, that was so much better than the change-ups in the first inning – I might’ve been wrong to doubt that pitch.  The 0-2 is an 83 drifting change outside, 1-2, then fastball is way upstairs, 79 MPH curve is in the dirt – full count.  Back to the change – this one at 83 and working it!  Jackson is way in front, strikeout number three, and I’m sold.  That’s three good pitches for Elias working right now.  Elias starts Nick Castellanos with a 77 MPH curve backdooring him, and if that keeps working for strike one – it’s understandable how well Elias did in this one.

Elias-Curve1

Next pitch is a fastball off the plate, and Castellanos reaches and pokes it to center for a single.  That was certainly a ball, so credit Castellanos.  92 MPH fastball is in there to backup Tigers catcher Bryan Holaday, then a change-up is grounded weakly to Elias, and it’s an easy out to end the inning.

Third Inning: A fastball is fouled off by Danny Worth to start the third, then a check swing foul, then another nasty change-up – almost looked like a slider it had so much downward and lateral movement, for Elias’ 4th K.  So through the first 9, 7 first-ball strikes, but is outside to Davis, then a high fastball is rocketed, but it’s speared at first for an out.  That was a loud one.  Huge breaking ball goes too far inside to Kinsler, same spot with the change, then he has to go to the heater at 93; it’s smoked again, but Seager backhands it for the third out.  Two very hard hit balls there – Elias is having some luck helping as well.

Fourth Inning: Still up 1-0, Elias is back to the big bats and starts Miggy with a change-up way outside, another change low, fastball low, and down 3-0 just like the top of the 2nd.  Elias gives him a fastball right down the middle, and Miggy greenlights it and flies out to center.  Lucky break there, but was an easy out.  I would’ve expected a little more patience or better contact from arguably the best hitter in baseball.  VMart takes a curve for strike one, a change-up breaks in there (geez, again looks like a slider, crazy), big curveball gets nicked foul, change-up outside, fastball fouled out of play, change-up outside, 2-2.  Nice AB from VMart, and he taps a curveball to the mound – Elias doesn’t field it cleanly, but Brad Miller is able to scoop it up and VMart’s incredibly slow wheels keep him from an infiled hit.  Wasn’t hit hard, but for 80% of major leaguers that’s a hit.  94 MPH heater is in there to Hunter, that’s his best so far, fastball way inside, then a curveball gets a weak grounder to end the inning.

Fifth Inning: A fastball is outside to Jackson, then low and outside, then AJax chases ball 3.  That’s three of the five innings he’s started iffy.  Change-up that looked outside barely nibbles the black 2-2, then a perfectly placed 93 MPH fastball doesn’t get the call inside, full count.  Good location though.  He then bends a curve at 78, it swooshes in the backdoor to get Jackson looking.  Wow, good stuff.   Change-up is a dandy and gets a big swing and miss from Castellanos, bends that curve in there, 0-2.  Fastball at 93 is some chin music, 1-2, Castellanos fights off another heater, then again backdoors Castellanos and freezes him, 6th K, two down.

Elias-Curve2

First-pitch fastball is rocketed foul by Holaday, then a hanging change-up at 87 gets laced to center for a single.  Elias hasn’t been perfect with those, got caught with a mistake there.  Worth takes a curve in there, fastball high, curveball in the dirt gets a swing called on the appeal, then the 1-2 curve is rolled to third, and the play is made to end the inning.

Sixth Inning: Elias gets another two runs for a 3-0 lead, and starts Davis with a fastball outside, 0-1.  Davis has two near hits so he’ll be a tough out.  Elias gets a change-up in there, Davis swings and misses on a curveball dipping low, another curve is tapped foul, then a heater at 93 is laced – but a few feet foul first base side.  Another near hit for Davis.  Fastball is high, then another curve is popped straight up and collected by Mike Zunino for out #1.  Elias is pounding the zone with curveballs – pretty impressive.  Outside at 93 to Kinsler, a hanging curve outside is tapped foul, fastball outside, a good change-up at the knees is in there, then a curveball in the dirt gets Kinsler trying to hold his swing, but he’s called out at the plate.  Kinsler is upset, but replay shows it a good call.  Fastball low to Cabrera, heater at 93 inside, fastball again gets the call on the outside corner, then a hanging change gets grounded to short to end the inning.

Seventh Inning: VMart opens the 7th and takes a fastball outside, fouls a heater off, change-up is high, fastball outside, down 3-1. Elias goes to a fastball in a dangerous count, and VMart pops out to shallow right, one down.  First-pitch change-up is rocketed towards the mound, and Hunter splits the gap up the middle for a well-hit single.  Another first-pitch change-up is hit in play by Jackson, but it’s an easy flyball to right, two down.  Elias gets a curve in there to Castellanos, change is low, then the 1-1 fastball is off the end of the bat for a lazy flyball to left, inning over.

Eighth Inning: Elias’ pitch count is solid at 92, and starts outside with the fastball, another heater fouled off by Holaday, fastball inside, a great curveball at 76 gets the zone, then another at 79 – a little faster and sharper – gets a swing-and-miss, one down – 8 Ks.  Worth takes a fastball low, change-up in there, then a fastball runs too far inside and nicks Worth for a HBP.  So he’ll have to work around a baserunner, but the first-pitch curveball is grounded right to third with Seager playing in, and even with the speedy Davis it’s a very easy double play.  Great timing.

Ninth Inning: Hoping to go the distance, Elias is at 101 pitches and is outside at 92 to Kinsler.  Velocity still there.  Change-up is outside – wait it’s called a strike?!  That was way outside!  Another change sliced foul, curveball barely tapped foul, another curve pulled foul, then a well-located fastball at 93 on the outside edge gets flown out very lazy to center, one down.  So two more tough outs, and Elias hits 94 on a first-pitch strike to Miggy – wow.

Elias-Fastball

Might have been his best first-pitch fastball all game.  Again at 94 outside, then a curveball chopped up the middle gets fielded cleanly for an easy out.  Last but not least is in the insanely hot VMart, and the first pitch is a heater flown out to center for an easy catch, and complete it up!  Amazing that it’s the Mariners first CG this year and a fantastic game from Elias.

Final Line:  W  9 IP  111 Pitches (72 Strikes)  0 ER  3 Hits  1 Walk  8 K  Gamescore: 88    Gamescore+: 83.4

Final Analysis: Any time you go the distance it’s a dandy, and Elias came to play.  But both according to my Gamescore+ and at my eye level, Elias had some luck going for him.  Especially early.  Rajai Davis got thrown out on a great play from Seager to start the game, then Kinsler hit one to the track (hardest hit all game).  If those go differently, this could’ve been a completely different start.  A few other outs were loud, and home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt gave Elias a huge outside corner.  All that said, all three hits were singles, his breaking stuff was mostly nasty, and the “lucky” outs would’ve only been singles as well.  

Starting with the heater, it usually sat 91-93 and topped at 94.  Elias’ delivery has a little deception, but the fastball is an average pitch.  I may have oversold it in the open.  But the off-speed is where he excelled, throwing a change-up when it was good at 84-85 – when bad at 87.  As I mention a few times through the recap, it occasionally has some big downward and lateral break making it look like a slider.  Then his best pitch – the curveball – is a power pitch going 76-80.  This may sound hyperbolic, but his stuff reminds me of Chris Sale.  Huge bending breaking ball with a change-up and fastball.  But Sale’s command is better and he has a much better heater.

So where to adjust my rankings to let Elias in?  Well, he still barely cracks it right now.  This was obviously an outlier game as he’s only gotten to 7 innings twice in 11 starts, and never past 7.0 IP.  His Gamescore had never topped 65, so this was certainly a career-game for the youngun.  I think his overall numbers look about where they should be, and this complete game isn’t a sign of out-of-nowhere acedom.  His fastball isn’t good enough to get over control issues if he doesn’t have the change-up and curveball working.  With a young pitcher without a glowing pedigree on his off-speed stuff – I think it could get him in trouble here and there.  However when it’s all working, you get games like this shutout or the 10 K performance at the Yankees.  Going at TB next seems decent, but then the Yankees come to Seattle for a second turn against him.  That will be a big test.  If he doesn’t get shelled in that one, it looks like it’ll be at San Diego mid-month.  That’s one that’ll for sure look saucy in a couple weeks.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto – green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
2 Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
4 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
5 Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
6 Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
7 Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
8 Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
9 Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
10 Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
11 Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
12 Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
13 Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
14 Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
15 Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
16 James Shields, Kansas City Royals
17 David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
18 Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
19 Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
20 Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
21 Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
22 Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
23 Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
24 Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
25 Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
26 Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
27 Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
29 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
30 Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
31 Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
32 Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
33 Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
34 Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
35 Chris Archer, Tamp Bay Rays
36 Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
37 Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
38 Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
39 Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves
40 C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
41 Nathan Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
42 Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
43 Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
44 Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
45 Jesse Chavez, Oakland Athletics
46 Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
47 Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
48 Zach Wheeler, New York Mets
49 Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
50 Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals
51 Andrew Heaney, Miami Marlins
52 Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
53 Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds
54 Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
55 Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers
56 Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
57 Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
58 John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
59 Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
60 Jon Niese, New York Mets
61 Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
62 Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
63 Drew Pomeranz, Oakland Athletics
64 Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
65 Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
66 Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
67 Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
68 Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs
69 Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
70 Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves
71 Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays
72 Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
73 Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers
74 Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers
75 Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
76 Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs
77 Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
78 Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians
79 Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers
80 R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
81 A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies
82 Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox
83 Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
84 Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
85 Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins
86 Rubby De La Rosa, Boston Red Sox
87 Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
88 Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
89 Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
90 Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles
91 Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
92 Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
93 Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies
94 Roenis Elias, Seattle Mariners
95 Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
96 Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
97 Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
98 Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
99 Liam Hendriks, Toronto Blue Jays
100 Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres

Dropped Out: Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians (7.00+ ERA 2.00+ WHIP in the Minors?!), Nick Tepesch, Texas RangersBronson ArroyoArizona Diamondbacks

  • I’m not really worried about Scherzer, but 2+ walks in 4 straight before yesterday, three bad ones in a row, it’s just enough of a nitpick to slide him down a couple.  Plus yesterday was 9 hits and 4 earned against the Mariners with no Robinson Cano!
  • Don’t look now, but Homer Bailey has quality starts in 5 of his last 6 games.  It’s still under the radar since he hasn’t had that dominant outing yet, but I’m encouraged enough for a green.
  • You wanna know who might be the most consistent pitcher in baseball?  Yovani Gallardo.  As in, consistently “meh”.
  • I might be crazy – but I’m all in on Heaney who looks ready right now.  I thank all you commenters for making me consider Heaney over all the middling guys and I realized since I see him being an impact arm right away – he needs to be ranked as such.
  • Ugh, friggin’ Doug Fister.  I mighta been wrong there.
  • Smyly is making me frowny.
  • Yikes, Danny Salazar is even worse in the Minors.  This is going to take a while.
  • If we talk about Minors, we have to cross our fingers that’s not in Tony Cingrani’s future.  Lately he’s been pitching as good as Gallardo in the consistent blah department.
  • Ya know, I was down on Quintana heading into the year and he’s pretty solid.  Not much upside, only a decent K rate, but won’t destroy you.  Probably an oversight to not have him ranked yet.
  • Another setback for Pineda.  Should rub some pine tar on his back…
  • Speaking of rubbing, Rubby De La Rosa!  Stuff looked pretty good.  Cautiously optimistic.

Thoughts on the Elias adjustment?  Rankings got a craw in your britches?  Shoot comments below and merry pitching!