Just spent more time than I care to admit (47 seconds) thinking about if this is the first San Francisco Giants player I’ve ever called a sleeper. Congratulations, Thairo Estrada, you’re the first Giants hitter I’ve liked since Barry Bonds! What does Thairo Estrada win? *digs through pockets* How does a losing Powerball ticket sound? No? A stamp card for TCBY? I’m not sure if TCBY is still in business, but if they are, you only need seven more yogurts for a free one. Not interested? Geez, picky, picky. By the way, I kinda like J.D. Davis too at his current ADP, but not enough to write a whole post. How did Thairo Estrada breakthrough like Jim Morrison on mescaline? Last year his stats were: 14/21/.260 in 488 ABs and he’s currently being drafted around 185th overall, so that’s a sleeper, said like The Simpsons’ Jasper would say, “That’s a paddlin’.” This is going to be one of those sleepers, where I just try to prove that a 15/20 hitter wasn’t a fluke last year, because Thairo Estrada was a top 100 overall guy on the Player Rater last year, so we just need a repeat performance. By the by, I’m finding a lot of success in the 90th to 95th overall on the Player Rater from last year. Eyeing Taylor Ward, Rowdy Tellez, and Thairo in that five-player range. Also, in there is Ian Happ, who I kinda like, but that’s for another day. So, what can we expect from Thairo Estrada for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Thairo Estrada sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Hanukkah miracle! Or late Hanukah miracle, depending on when Hanukkah is this year. The Jews should really decide on one day to start Hanukah each year, and stick with it. It’s better for branding. Anyway II, the Thairo Estrada sleeper:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Wed 8/6
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | DET | OAK

Remember when you could play as Yoshi for the first time in a Mario game? Maybe it was Mario Tennis. Maybe you could count riding him in that first SNES game? Remember how great it felt to win a Mariocart race as Yoshi? 

Boston members. 

Though they lack a truly elite prospect, the Red Sox have assembled an exciting group of hitters that should matriculate to Fenway in waves over the next few seasons. Best system I’ve seen here in four years doing these lists. Took me a long time to whittle down to these top ten. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Finally, a trade! No team but the A’s could make Sean Murphy into the impetus for a three-team trade with eight players involved. Sean Murphy to the A’s; Oakland gets Kyle Muller, Esteury Ruiz, Freddy Tarnok, Royber Salinas and Manny Pina; Milwaukee gets William Contreras, Justin Yeager and Joel Payamps. Braves turning William Contreras into Sean Murphy, presumably at DH and catcher, is such a why bother for the Braves that I wonder if Alex Anthopoulos just had to trade William Contreras because he wouldn’t agree to a 17-year, $12 million deal. “You won’t agree to being a Braves player for life for $75,000 a year? Then, I’m sorry, you have to go.” We know Billy Beane, Anthopoulos and the Brewers’ GM, whoever that is, don’t play fantasy baseball, because if they did, they’d know to never pick their catcher scab. Ron Popeil, food appliance guru and master fantasy baseballer, once said, “Set it and forget it.” Seriously, I’m trying to figure out the difference between Murphy and Contreras and I am at a literal loss. In Oakland, the will is gone; and in Atlanta the William. Sean Murphy was the 6th best catcher on the Player Rater last year, and, while it looks like he overperformed on average, there is something to a team as bad as the Vegas A’s just rolling a guy like Murphy out there for 150-ish games. It’s Murphy’s Law. In a better lineup, he might lose a few at-bats, but, as said above, he has the DH too. For 2023, I’ll give Sean Murphy projections of 66/20/73/.244/1 in 502 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Grey and B_Don (basically Grey couldn’t find anyone better, yet) are back for the 2023 season! We’re here to jump into the moves from the winter meetings. We start the podcast with Aaron Judge re-signing and some discussion about the different baseballs in use last season, and well, we rant a little bit…

Then, we move on to the signings. We talk about Trea Turner heading to Philadelphia and the Bryce Harper injury news. The Rangers bolstered their pitching rotation with Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi, but how interested are we in them? The Mets followed suit and added to their rotation with Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana. We go on to talk about the other signings including Jose Abreu, Xander Bogaerts, Willson Contreras, Mitch Haniger, Josh Bell, and the other meaningful-ish signings.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As mentioned many times in the past, there’s different types of fantasy baseball sleepers. They can’t all be, “Who the H-E-double hockey sticks are you talking about?” Some guys are going to be no dur sleepers. Jake McCarthy is interesting because I think he might be both, depending on what kind of league you’re in. I could see him being a “What the H-E-double hockey sticks” in some leagues with people who are immersed in fantasy baseball all year long. There’s others though, who don’t follow fantasy baseball year-round. and these people are the real freaks. They have lives six months of the year when there’s no baseball? That sounds nuts, to be honest. For those absolute freaks, they might not realize how good Jake McCarthy was last year, and could let him slip in drafts. The slightly hilarious thing is the big box sites like ESPN are in this group, as they also cater to the freaks. I have no idea at this point, as I write this in October, and you read it in December, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jake McCarthy ranked around 275 overall at ESPN, if at all. He’s the kind of guy that is just completely overlooked. Therefore, ergo, vis-a-vie, if you’re seeing Jake McCarthy 2023 fantasy baseball sleeper and thinking, “No dur.” You’re right, he should be no dur, but he won’t be no dur for all people. If you’re thinking, “Okay, if you’re writing this for freaks, and I’m reading it, does it make me a freak?” No, you’re reading this in December. You’re no freak. Unless you read this in March. Then you be a freak. So, what can we expect from Jake McCarthy for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Selling Trey Mancini to Houston during the club’s one competitive season in years might have karmically doomed the franchise, but if Baltimore can avoid the hex, they should be in for a steady run of good rosters. This list will only scratch the surface on how much talent this team has accrued through aggressively tanking then gaming the draft-pool system and slow-playing every prospect so they’d all be on the cusp at the same time. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome back for another edition of 2023 Top Keepers. This week we are going round out the infield as we look at third basemen.

As a whole, this is not an overly deep position. If you have a player who I rank in Tier 1 or 2, be happy. Because after the top 10, the production level drops pretty quickly.

Where is the young talent?

If you are looking for a third baseman to be a long-term anchor on your team, there are only a few players who can really fit that mold. Out of the 30 players ranked in Tiers 1 through 5, 14 of them are 30 or older. I did rank nine players who are 25 or younger, but only four of those players are in my top 10.

The good news is that many of the third basemen listed below do hit for some power. Sixteen players hit more than 20 home runs and another nine hit more than 10. The bad news, however, is that only nine of the ranked players hit better than .270 and only 10 had an OBP above .340.

This all adds up to a group that is largely old and doesn’t hit for a high average or get on base. However, at least they can help with home runs!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Taylor Ward as a fantasy baseball sleeper feels like one of those:  By March, everyone is going to write at least one sleeper post for Taylor Ward and some people will write two so he will be a sleeper in name only. That’s fine, they can’t all be “Drafted around 300th overall” sleepers. I’ve been wrong about things like this before. Not wrong on whether a guy will be good or not, I’m never wrong about that. Shut up about Adalberto Mondesi! Literally no one is asking you for a list of names I was wrong about. Yes, I thought Jonathan India was a star, and it turned out I was just reading a Star of India takeout menu. Can you please stop listing all of my many mistakes now? Thanks. I mean, I’ve been wrong in the past about whether a player will be hyped as a sleeper, then they’re not. It’s harder to understand what others are thinking than what players will do. All of the stats, that I will get to in a second, show Taylor Ward will be undervalued, but will everyone else see that? My guess is yes, but who knows? Thought it was obvious to not draft starters in the first 15 picks overall, and I’ve been wrong about people catching on with that for about a decade. Last year, Taylor Ward went 73/23/65/.281/5 in 495 ABs. That’s *holds hand over mouth while yawning*, right? No? Ah, you’re one step ahead of me, let me catch up. So, what can we expect from Taylor Ward for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Aaron Judge grew up in San Francisco. He told associates of mine at the Winter Meetings that he can still remember which Walgreen’s he was in when he witnessed his first shoplifting. He wistfully remembered, “I was by the breath mints, and this man carried out six boxes of Wheat Thins.” Fond memories for Judge that are going to hard to replicate when he signs a 1-year deal with the Giants in ten years. As we all assumed, Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees through his age-39 season. Luckily, Razzball has a time machine at its disposal, and I went forward nine years to take a quick pic of Aaron Judge when he’s in that final year. Here it is:

So, Aaron Judge on the Yankees is more of the same. *claps hands, all done* No? Okay. Not sure how many people heard this, but it was reported the other day that MLB used three different baseballs last year. One of those balls was more batter-friendly. It was found only at the All-Star Game, Home Run Derby, postseason and Yankees games. This sounds like a joke, but the jokes ended with the guy walking out with Wheat Thins. I’m being serious now. Yo, jai alai called, it wants its “this sport is a joke” moniker back. MLB embraces gambling and institutes cheating by way of different balls. It truly is incredible.

Last year, Aaron Judge went 62/16/.311, guys and five girl readers, and that is the best line of all-time. 40/40 is nice; 50/10 is butter; 60/5 is nomnomnom, get in my belly; 62/12? I mean, c’mon. Seriously, c’mon. C’mon, c’mon! C’mon, c’mon, c’mon! It’s ludicrous. It’s mind boggling. Thesaurus, give me another synonym! It’s BREATHTAKING!!! He always had power — he’s a freakin’ giant, of course he has power! — but he’s never hit .300 or stole more than six bags in a season before. Also, being a certified giant (and not a Giant, as was rumored), he’s prone to injuries. That year of 62/12 wasn’t just a career year, it was the career year of career years. How’sever, if he goes 40/10/.280, it’s still very doable and a great. For 2023, I’ll give Aaron Judge projections of 109/41/102/.283/10 in 548 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

They might be Giants again in 2023, but 2022 was a weird year by the bay. Buster Posey is the best defensive catcher I’ve ever seen. Easy to underrate his value on a day to day basis. His absence was felt in the win/loss column. Still, they’ve got a smart front office with plenty of money to spend, so it shouldn’t be long before they’re pushing the Padres and Dodgers again. 

 

1. SS Marco Luciano  | 21 | A+ | 2023

Luciano has lost some of that new-car shine over the years as people settled into the reality that he was unlikely to steal many bases, but I think 2022 was his most encouraging season as a pro. Nothing was particularly loud (.263/.339/.459), but his plate skills looked okay (9.6% BB, 22.2% K) and he was 20 percent better than league average against older players during something of a grind-it-out season with a two-month injury slicing it down the middle.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Imagine a very good boy sitting at attention, let’s call that boy, Treat Urner. Treat Urner is looking at you with those doe-eyes giving you all kinds of oxytocin. Your brain is firing off like July 4th over the Hudson. My God it feels good! Stare at me Treat Urner and give me more and more oxytocin! Wag your tail and give me the love! In a baby voice, you lean in, “What does Treat Urner want? Does Treat Urner want a treat? Does he? Okay, to earn one of those treats you need to steal 30 bags, hit 25 homers and hit .300. Can the good boy do that? He can? Aw, what a good Treat Urner this Treat Urner is! Here…” Then I throw the treat into the yard, it lands in the bushes and we spend the next twenty minutes trying to figure out where that stupid treat landed while he licks my ears. Treat Urner was going to be great wherever he went. Landing in Philly gets Kyle Schwarber out of the leadoff slot. Right…RIGHT?! Please someone say I’m right. I don’t want to go to Amoeba Records and scratch Rob Thomas’s name off every CD as an act of deviance vs. the Phils’ manager. By the by, Trea Turner getting 11 years is quite funny.

But, of course, this is for this year, and there’s no one better, when consistency is factored in. Just an absolute lock for great counting stats. Now in Philly, it should help maintain the power, that isn’t top-flight, but good enough for a guy with his speed. Hopefully, he doesn’t pay too close attention to all the other Phils’ fly ball tendencies. “So, you’re saying I should have a Launch Angle of 26? Okay!” That’s Trea Turner at the batting cage with Rhys Hoskins and The Schwammer. No, stay away, Treat Urner! Good boy! For 2023, I’ll give Trea Turner projections of 107/22/101/.293/30 in 606 ABs. That means Treastykakes are the best food in Philly since Chase steaks! Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“You can spend any amount of money, but it has to be in the months of November and December, then from the months of April thru October you have to stink.”

Rangers’ GM, the 8-foot tall Chris Young shakes his head, lowering the last will and testament of the Rangers’ crazy aunt Mary, who just passed. Finally, Young says, “This is more convoluted than Brewster’s Millions.”

Don’t fully understand it, but the Rangers print money in December of every year, then set it on fire all summer long. It’s not clear how, why or any other question you have. All I know is the Rangers have made this their MO. It truly is impressive if you stop to think about it. I’m glad they’re spending money, but real questions: Where is all this money coming from and are they ever going to win anything? So, the latest spend was on Jacob deGrom, giving him $222 million. Good for him. As I said at one point last year, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. Speaking of which, as frequent contributor, Coolwhip, reminded me: What will deGrom’s health be like without the Mets’ trainers? 220 IP incoming! I kid, I think. No, I don’t think deGrom will suddenly be the model of good health. He has a better chance of being a cover model on Men’s Health next to a topless Bartolo Colon. Speaking of the Mets:

So, Jacob deGrom goes to a great park, but he’s stadium-proof. He’s in a new league, but he’s league-proof. He’s the best pitcher in the game, who can’t get past 92 IP since 2021. He could be one of the biggest lottery tickets in fantasy baseball drafts, but, unless he fell, I won’t be trying to cash it. His 14.3 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 1.54 xFIP last year are so ridiculous. In 64 IP or 15 IP, it doesn’t matter. No one is better, it’s just “no one is better” for how many innings? That’s the question. For 2023, I’ll give Jacob deGrom projections of 10-2/2.26/0.83/167 in 107 IP. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?