Yunel Escobar (+31.3%) was the most added player in fantasy baseball this past week. The 32-year-old middle infielder who hasn’t reached double digits in home runs since 2011 and has never stolen more than 6 bases in a single season. The same player who hasn’t produced a batting average above .258 since the 2011 season. Yup, that Yunel Escobar. So, what exactly is going on here? Is he a late bloomer? Early zombino? Well, through 35 games and 150 plate appearances, Escobar has launched 2 homers and is 0-for-1 in steal attempts. His BB-rate is down (6.7% in ’15; 8.9% career) and his K-rate is up (12.7% in ’15; 11.3% career). On the plus side, his 23 runs scored and .326 average are among the NL leaders. However, that average is being fueled by an unsustainably high .364 BABIP (.302 career), and while his current 21.7% LD% would represent a new career high, his 17.5% FB% would easily represent the lowest mark of his career and all but ensure another single digit HR campaign. Unless your league includes douchebaggery as a category, ride the hot streak then cut bait at the first sign of trouble. Here were a couple of other big adds and drops in fantasy baseball from this past week:
Marlon Byrd – 44.5% owned (+14.7%)
This 37-year-old Byrd appeared to be cooked after performing like one of the worst players in the league in April, but it’s been a completely different story in May. Take a look at the monthly splits:
• April (21 games played): 80 PA, 7 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 1/25 BB/K, .169/.188/.273 BA/OBP/SLG
• May (15 games played): 65 PA, 8 R, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB, 13/14 BB/K, .294/.431/.725 BA/OBP/SLG
This is a perfect illustration of why plate discipline is such an important component of player evaluation. Byrd pressed at the plate and swung at everything that was thrown at him in his first month with the Reds, but has been a much more selective hitter during the month of May. 13 out of his 14 walks this season have come over the last 15 games, and this more selective approach has led to a more productive month at the plate than any player in baseball outside of Bryce Harper and Jason Kipnis, or at the very least in the same ballpark as fantasy studs such as Anthony Rizzo, Michael Brantley, and Justin Upton. Byrd’s 57 HR since the beginning of the 2013 season are the 20th most in MLB over that time frame, and his 302.11 ft average flyball distance this season ranks 25th in MLB, ahead of sluggers like Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Nelson Cruz. His home stadium, the Great American Ballpark, has been the 2nd best park for home runs for right-handed hitters over the last three seasons. One more 25+ HR season looks likely for the veteran. TREASURE.
Leonys Martin – 49.4% owned (-15.9%)
It’s certainly been a disappointing 2015 season for Martin thus far. A .198/.240/.264 triple slash line is not what his fantasy owners had in mind when selecting him on draft day. A nagging left wrist injury sustained earlier this month has been an issue for Martin as well. In fact, since the injury occurred on May 4th, Martin has struggled to stay healthy, while managing only 1 hit in 19 PA during that time period. Consider what a healthy Martin brings to the table though. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, his 73 stolen bases are the 12th most in MLB, and he’s one of only seven players to amass at least 15 HR and 70 SB during that time frame. At age 27, he’s at his peak. Assuming his wrist injury isn’t serious, Martin is a great player to stash on your bench until he returns to full health. TREASURE.
