Oh man, baseball is almost back!
This has been an epicly tough offseason… Mainly because it took me like 3 weeks and countless hours to try and get these rankings done… How the hell does Grey do it?! Probably by not watching any TV or movies; he STILL refuses to catch up and watch The Fifth Element!
Then again, I went from 6700 words in my yearly magnum opus in 2015 to 9500+ this time! JB-Full-Of-Words! I dunno if J-FOW is a new acronym I want though, I sound like the nerdy, fantasy baseball brah from Jersey Shore.
I’m absolutely pumped for another season of Pitcher Profiles, a full season with my new computer for the sexier new pitcher GIFs, flashing around my very own, spiffy Gamescore+ stat, and a season to hopefully forget the epic Greek tragedy of Shane Greene. Super Greene!
If you missed the wrap up at the end of last year, you can check out how my 2015 pre-ranks fared against Grey and ESPN.
Let’s get down-n-dirty into it! Especially since we’re nearing 9600 words with this open now… Sheesh! Someone get this guy an editor! As always, please shoot your comments below on what ya think, and happy pitching to us all in 2016!
Want to take on myself and the other contributors for prizes in our RCL League? Join here!
As tradition, my top-5 sleepers this year are (to varying degrees obviously): Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Joe Ross, Jason Hammel, & Brandon Maurer
JB’s Top 100 SP
(rankings based on 12-team Roto)
RANK | SP, Team | NOTE |
---|---|---|
1 | Clayton Kershaw, LAD | Undisputed, now 3 years in a row! Or has it been 4? 5?! Too good… |
2 | Jake Arrieta, CHC | Wow, what a year! Almost like someone was on top of that one or something! Ya know, mayyyyyybe his BABIP was a little lucky and mayyyyyybe his LOB was a little high, but 9+ K rate and sub-2 BB rate?! And his GB% at 56.2% was insane, AND he threw harder! Razzball’s Player Rater #1 pitcher should be your second off the board. Pitcher Profile – July 7, 2014 |
3 | Chris Sale, CWS | Even with his ERA going from 2.17 to 3.41 from 2014 to 2015, his xFIP was actually LOWER last year! BABIP took a huge unlucky bump, he gave up too many homers, and didn’t strand baserunners like he did the year before. That said, the MLB leader in K-rate should have a really high LOB, and while I initially had him 4 due to injury concerns, he made it through 208 IP last year despite an early injury. |
4 | Max Scherzer, WAS | Really struggled with Sale vs. Max, but decided to straight copy Grey through the top-4. A 10.86:1.34 K:BB is just plain stupid, but his LOB was a career-high, BABIP was abnormally low for his career norms, and he showed some warts in a bad August run. Super nit-picky, but I think Sale has a smidge more upside, which might sound a little crazy looking at Mad Max’s 2015 final numbers… |
5 | David Price, BOS | It’s obviously a fools-errand to project wins, but if I had money on the MLB’s win leader, give me Price. Even though he’s 30, I think we see the same old price with a 9+ K-rate, sub-2 BB-rate, a ton of innings and great numbers. He proved he can pitch in the AL East, and like his stint with the Blue Jays, he has a great lineup behind him. But dat bullpen, doe! And a little bonus for stability in his career. |
6 | Jose Fernandez, MIA | Grey’s got him at 11 which is solid, but ESPN right now at 16?! I just don’t get why people wouldn’t spend a premium to bring in JoFer. Sure he could be traded, and sure Crayola Canyon is about to be less Canyon-ous, but right after TJ he was the same ace as before. A 10.99:1.95 K:BB last year was ludicrous, especially off the TJ when most pitchers lose some control/command, plus his velocity was at a career best! He’s young, healed up, and ready to be not overlooked in your drafts. |
7 | Jacob deGrom, NYM | Back-to-back huge seasons, he and JoFer were neck and neck for me. I guess I feel Fernandez just has a smidge more upside. |
8 | Madison Bumgarner, SF | As boring as it could be for a perennial top-10 SP. Three straight years of great K:BB improvements though. If there weren’t so many aces, he’d easily push top-5. |
9 | Matt Harvey, NYM | Of course you can point to the TJ and I’m pretty sure even Harvey admitted he was shaky with command early on, and it just made him seem so hittable at times. The final numbers were great, and other than that 9th inning, was great in the playoffs. But gave up a higher hit rate with a lower BABIP, and I just don’t quite see the ceiling any higher than 9. But my 5-11 are all reallllly close. |
10 | Corey Kluber, CLE | Love my Kluber! One of my bigger calls since doing these silly lil’ ranks had a disappointing 2015, but a lot had to do with bad luck in both his numbers and the team in general. The low wins were well-publicized, but his LOB% took a huge hit, dropping from 78.6% to 71.4%. HR/FB rate also jumped 3% – a factor in LOB – but for a guy with such high Ks and low BBs, it seems way too low. He’ll be 30 most of this year, but velo is still there, he doesn’t have a boatload of innings on that arm, and the cutter is still nasty. Klubot for the comeback! |
11 | Chris Archer, TB | I can see how a rocky finish left a sour taste in owner’s ratios, but for only his second full season in the rotation, I think we still have up to go. A crazy 10.7 K rate with 252 total punchouts were the final tallies last year, and with all those Ks, 73.1% LOB seems a little low. A guy with a 95.2 MPH fastball and arguably the best slider in baseball, I don’t think he’s getting ranked high enough. Pitcher Profile – April 27, 2015 |
12 | Carlos Carrasco, CLE | Man, these aces’ K-rates through the top 15! All the Indians pitchers seemed to suffer from unlucky peripherals, and Carrasco with the crazy 10.58 K rate and 71.8% LOB is no different. He gave up way too many homers too at 13.2% per FB, so hopefully that normalizes. He’s not quite top-10 for me though, mainly due to his workload. 183.2 IP was his highest since 2010 (across AAA and some work in the Majors) and he had a short DL stint in there. Seems a little riskier. Pitcher Profile – September 15, 2014 |
13 | Noah Syndergaard, NYM | Even the biggest fans of Thor couldn’t have thought he’d be this good this fast, but here’s YET ANOTHER pitcher who posted a 9+ K rate and sub-2 BB rate. And to make him even more appealing, his HR rate at 14.3% was a little high! Maybe youth and the fact we’ve only seen a minimal workload is about all that’s keeping him outside the top-10 for me. Pitcher Profile – May 18, 2015 |
14 | Gerrit Cole, PIT | I’ve seen Cole a few higher, but it comes down to him being the first guy I have ranked thus far with a K rate under 9 last year. He’s still REALLY good, but also a 6.5% HR/FB is pretty low, even in pitcher-friendly Pitt. Not quite reaching with top-10 value for him. |
15 | Stephen Strasburg, WAS | Hard to believe the only year Strasburg had a sub-3.00 ERA was in his debut season in 2010. Given it’s kinda an arbitrary cutoff since he’s always been under 3.50 every other year, but still! The Ks are always there, and here’s YET ANOTHER +9:-2 K:BB, which has actually been +10:-2 the past two seasons. Does he have the upside of JoFer? Of course, but I feel like his injuries have been a lot of nagging things. With all these aces, I’ll be risk averse, but he’s right there in the same range as these 5-15 guys. |
16 | Dallas Keuchel, HOU | Man, a Cy Young Winner is 16?! It hasn’t been THIS bad since R.A. Dickey! Even though I think he’ll be awesome, he doesn’t have the K-upside as several of the above, and his BABIP and LOB was pretty low compared to his norms last year (.269 & 79.4%). That said, he’s an elite groundballer (again over 60% last year) and got burned with a pretty unlucky HR/FB (13.6%). He’ll be good, but tough to rank him in the top-15. Pitcher Profile – May 29, 2014 |
17 | Jon Lester, CHC | He’s not the most exciting, but finished 19 on the Razzball player rater last year, and his K:BB matches up with a lot of the elite guys above. It had me move him up a few from the 20-25 range, which is where he seems to be ranked everywhere else. 9.09:2.06 last year, giving him back-to-back 9:2ish K:BBs. He’s pitched 200+ innings in 7 of the past 8 seasons, with the only outlier 191.2 in 2011. And even though he alternated elite with bad months in his splits during 2015, his worst month by far was April as he adjusted to the NL and had that widely-publicized horrible pickoff move dissected to death. He still ended up the MLB leader in steals allowed though; fortunately for 2016’s optimism his FIP and xFIP way outperformed the ERA and he had an unlucky 71.8% LOB (of course more steals means guys are in scoring position more, but that’s still low). I’m likely nabbing Lester as an SP2 in a lot of drafts since on the surface he looks a little boring. |
18 | Felix Hernandez, SEA | Look, it wasn’t good. But it wasn’t that BAD either… A lot of people point to the K-rate drop, but it was actually EXACTLY the same as his career rate. He got unlucky with the homers, and the BB rate ballooned compared to the previous 3 seasons. That said, he didn’t lose velocity and a lot of the damage were in a handful of cringe-worthy starts. I think he marginally bounces back and returns to top-20. |
19 | Zack Greinke, ARI | |
20 | Carlos Martinez, STL | I feel like right here at 20, you’re starting to feel less comfortable about anyone… So I’m swinging for the fences with C-Mart, who for an elongated stretch was right there in the top-10 of aces last year. He fell apart late, and his shoulder issues are scaring some off. But he peripherals all look great, the Ks are obviously there, and if he finished strong last year, he’d no question approach the top 15. Pitcher Profile – April 13, 2015 |
21 | Danny Salazar, CLE | Sticking with my theme of great Ks and upside, Salazar is a popular breakout in this range after a solid-but-unlucky 2015… just like every Indians pitcher it seems… 195 Ks in 185 innings, walk rate went down to 2.5, but I dunno, there’s just something about his inconsistency that’s keeping him outside the top-20 for me with numbers that would normally get a guy there… Maybe my linked pitcher profile there is still in my memory… Pitcher Profile – August 18, 2014 |
22 | Carlos Rodon, CWS | Aight, it’s time to finally go all-in on someone, and mannnnn was I mad to see Grey ranked him really high as well. The walks early on just seemed so out of place, and as he got into his groove, they went way down and his numbers looked insane. His final 8 starts were all quality starts, and he never gave up more than 2 ER. He reminds me a lot of how Carrasco finished 2014 and then had all the buzz heading into 2015, except Rodon has a lot less fanfare. In college, his walk rate was always right at 3, and pre-ASB it was 6.18 last year. Ouch. Post-ASB it was 4.10, still not good, but 3.84 in those final 8, so it kept on improving. If he can maintain a season-long walk rate of 3.5, he’s going to be a woolly mammoth out there. And just at the eye level, that slider is Rodonkulous. I had to do it once! ESPN having him 98 is one of the worst things I’ve ever seen in this life. Really, you’re gonna take Yovani Gallardo ahead of him?! SMH… Pitcher Profile – May 11, 2015 |
23 | Cole Hamels, TEX | I wrestled with Hamels passing the last 3 and ranking him at 20, but his lack of upside kept him outside the top-20 for me. Even with nice numbers, his WHIP has been 1.12-1.19 the last 3 years, which is fine, but not awesome. 3.60+ ERA in 2 of the past 3 as well, with 2014 looking more like an outlier to his career trends. You’ll get Ks, that’s assured, but 3.30-3.50 ERA with 1.17ish WHIP? I kinda doubt we get anything drastically better than that. |
24 | Francisco Liriano, PIT | Lord help me, I like Liriano the exact same as Grey this year… Ever since he got his arm rebuilt in 2006, he had his second lowest BB rate last year (3.38), only walking less way back in 2010. He’s been durable-ish the past two years, and his velocity is still there. And even his HR rate the past 2 years at 11.6% and 11.7% seems a little high in pitcher-friendly PNC. Sigh… I like him… |
25 | Marcus Stroman, TOR | Grey certainly doesn’t like Stroman, but he certainly shouldn’t be using his MLB numbers thus far as he’s certainly only had a small sample. Stroman certainly has electric stuff, and certainly has 5 pitches. I’m certainly a fan. |
26 | Jeff Samardzija, SF | Ya know, way back when in our first Pod of the offseason, I said I wouldn’t rank Shark ahead of Cueto, but would be more apt to draft Shark a few rounds later… Psyche! Ended up ranking them flip-flopped than anyone else. Looking deeper at everything, this is more about fear for Cueto than a deeper love of Shark though. Last year was an utter disaster, but as I pointed out on that Pod, his velo was the same, and all that changed was a rotation rate on his fastball that made it more hittable. I think force-feeding the Don Cooper cutter messed with his stuff, and the Giants are going to get him back on his normal grips. I’m really hoping he gets back to the split-finger more too. He became a flyball pitcher last year with the dramatic drop in fastball usage and huge uptick in CT% (like how Phil Hughes only gives up flyballs!) in a terrible park for that change. Now he’s in the best park for it, even if the flyablls stay up! 200+ innings, 190+ Ks, and the ERA and WHIP are solid in my book. |
27 | Joe Ross, WAS | Yeah, yeah, yeah, I’m crazy for Ross. And I know what you’re thinking. “Wait, the Nationals always put innings limits in place, and Ross isn’t gonna top 180!” Well, what’s lost in that argument – especially in a mixed league roto context – is it’s not like you lose 20-30 innings into an abyss. You get replacement streaming guys in September, usually when it’s easiest to find streaming matchups as half your league is usually tuned out. Even though it ended up an 8.10:2.47 K:BB last year in 76.2 IP, it was 65:11 in his first 66.2. He just got wild in his final two starts. A complaint with his arsenal is the change-up isn’t fully developed, but he reminds me sooooo much of Chris Archer, with comparable control – if not even better RIGHT NOW. I’m getting him in a ton of leagues, if not all. Pitcher Profile – July 27, 2015 |
28 | Justin Verlander, DET | What TV show tagline is “do you believe?”, is that X-Files? I think so… And just like X-files, Verlander was awesome, disappeared, and now is back with some alien DNA injected somewhere. Verlander was phenomenal last year down the stretch – widely speculated because he was finally healthy – flashing that late-innings high-90s fastball like vintage Upton-motorboater. He’s gone into the past two seasons hurt, but is healthy this time. I guess I do believe! |
29 | Patrick Corbin, ARI | I’ll always have a soft spot for Corbin in my heart, mostly because every good start I look at his stats and go “Corbin! Corbin my man!” or “Corbin Dalls?!”. Coming off TJ – which I’ll remind he had way back in Spring 2014 so he had a good 14-15 months of recovery time – he was solid last year, with a 8.26:1.80 K:BB. His fastball was faster – it hit 95 multiple times in games I watched – and his slider was both faster and was utilized more. He gets a full offseason to heal again, and I see a big season coming. Pitcher Profile – July 20, 2015 |
30 | Taijuan Walker, SEA | Unlike the suggestion of his surname, control is the name of the game for Taijuan, issuing only 2.12 BB:9 his first full-ish season. What dogged his numbers last year was an unlucky HR rate (13.0% HR/FB in Safeco!) and just an absurd 67.8% LOB. For a guy who doesn’t walk guys often to extend innings and has nice K stuff, there’s no way it should’ve been that low. He profiles as someone I would tend to rank higher, but I still think he has some inconsistencies to work out through 2016. |
31 | Tyson Ross, SD | An enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in an awful BB rate wrapped with a pitching motion that I hate, I’ve just never been able to buy into Ross where he tends to go in drafts these pest few years. He’s made 31 and 33 starts the past two years, and because of his walks and high pitch counts, can’t get to 200 innings while destroying your WHIP. He brings Ks, sure, but the low innings per-start also impacts his wins (on top of being on a terrible team). You’re left with a decent enough ERA, awesome Ks, subpar wins, and an atrocious WHIP, I just can’t buy into it. And neither do rankings systems either, as he finished 32 on the Razzball player rater last year, and I don’t see him improving, if at all. Pitcher Profile – April 14, 2014 |
32 | Johnny Cueto, SF | I’ve built a filter for comments that say “I can’t believe you ranked [insert pitcher ranked 20-30] ahead of Cueto!”, and moves them to my Trash. Haha. If he gets through 2016 healthy, he’ll probably outperform this rank, but Cueto had a lot of injuries earlier in his career and had an elbow scare last year. I seriously doubt SF wouldn’t do their homework and extensively test it out, but his motion uses a lot of torque in his core and I wouldn’t be surprised if a DL stint is coming. And beyond that, his K-rate has been sub 7.57 in every Major League season except 2014 and his debut 2008 campaign. That actually really surprised me, and in a pitcher-friendly park, I bet he throws to contact a lot yet again. Not exciting. |
33 | Sonny Gray, OAK | As Grey pointed out on Gray, two years of subpar K-rates and an extremely fortunate .255 BABIP last year. The metrics all say he pitched over his head in 2015, and with a K-rate that isn’t interesting, I’m likely passing. |
34 | Masahiro Tanaka, NYY | We all know he has a torn elbow, and we all know the risk. We all know the reward too. Pretty much all I feel like I need to say here… |
35 | Yordano Ventura, KC | I don’t like him. I used to love him. He was a big breakout call for me in 2014. Then I thought the hype got a little too crazy in 2015, and then he started acting, well, Ventura-ish. But taking my non-fandom of him in real-life terms out of the equation, he actually took a huge step forward in Ks, cut down on the walks, and both his FIP and xFIP were improvements, and that was in the his full season numbers! Ventura supporters are bigger about highlighting the final 11 games, where he had a 2.38 ERA, and crazy 81:28 K:BB in 68 innings. That final stretch really covered up some atrocious early season numbers that got him sent to AAA (he ended up not making an appearance there due to an injury to another KC pitcher, I think Jason Vargas…?). There is certainly the possiblitly it all comes together, but there’s a little too much volatility there for me to go any higher. |
36 | Luis Severino, NYY | Yet another young gun with electric stuff that I’ll take an earlier flier on than some of the boring guys below. While he comes with some obvious risk (he’s 22, gave up too many homers last year), he also has been a control maestro as a pro, never having a BB rate over 2.61 in any stretch at any level in the Minors. It was 3.18 last year in the bigs, and I see that going down, the Ks staying 8.5ish, and Girardi says he could see him going 200 IP. I’ll invest. Pitcher Profile – August 31, 2015 |
37 | Raisel Iglesias, CIN | I came into these ranks thinking Iglesias was wayyyy overrated as a sleeper, but damn if I’m not finding anyone more interesting than his upside. 104 Ks in 95.1 IP last year with a pretty low walk rate, but I worry how much has to do with his deception. He throws from a low arm slot, and the international import didn’t have Minor League experience to break down by scouts/in the film room once he hit the league. While I could see him not quite breaking out, I think he actually has a pretty high floor. |
38 | Drew Smyly, TB | Eesh, that shoulder… But eesh, dem numbers! 77 K in 66.2 IP, giving him a sparkling 10.4:2.7 K:BB in 2015. Now, he’s not a hard thrower, but has a devastating curve and pitches in one of the best parks in baseball. The risk in his shoulder is worth the price at this point. |
39 | Adam Wainwright, STL | I know, I know, I’m not a Wainwright believer, and he’ll probably call into the Razzball Pod to whine about it. Here’s a guy that’s 34, pitched 227+ REGULAR SEASON innings in 4 of 5 seasons before the Achilles cost him most of last year, with his K rate steadily declining down to 7. I buy his 2012-13 stretch of “meh” a lot more than 2014, where he won 20 games with a LOB of 78%, BABIP of .267, and absurd 5.3% HR/FB. It’s trending the wrong way. |
40 | Michael Wacha, STL | Wacha’s still young, throws hard, and probably SHOULD be someone I would be more excited about. Shoulda woulda coulda! But a lot of value last year came with 17 wins over only 181.1 IP. Given marginally, his K rate went down and BB rate went up from 2014 to 15, and even with a .272 BABIP, he posted a 1.21 WHIP. He looks unhittable sometimes, then goes in rough stretches. I dunno if there’s enough upside to take him with some of the other emerging young pitchers I have higher. |
41 | Steven Matz, NYM | I dunno, something about Matz gives me the heeby-jeebies. I know he throws hard, has good stuff, and profiles like someone I should rank with my crazy high 20-30 range high-ranked younguns, but I think he’ll have some bumps in his first real elongated action. If your fastball is awesome I’m all for throwing it, but I think he’s gonna need to mix in the rest of his arsenal a little more (68.4% FB usage last year, given very small sample), which will lend itself to some inconsistency. Pitcher Profile – June 29, 2015 |
42 | Jason Hammel, CHC | A hamstring strain really derailed what was otherwise an awesome season from Mad Man J-Ham. Through his first 17 starts, he had a 2.86 ERA in 103.2 IP with a 105:18 K:BB. Afterwards he had a 5.03 ERA over his last 15 starts. That said, still had a 68:22 K:BB in 66 IP, with an unlucky .333 BABIP, given he gave up 33% line drives which is mad scary. I think the Hammel’s Hammy got him a little off track. His Ks went up and BB went down last year from 2014, giving him a BETTER FIP and xFIP in 2015 than 2014. For a guy getting consistenty ranked and drafted outside the top 50, he offers that sexy 9:2ish K:BB that a lot of the guys up top do. He’s obviously older (32) with a long track record of not being nearly as good up until these past 2 seasons, but there’s still upside here. |
43 | Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA | On top of never posting a K-rate over 7.74, he just can never stay healthy. I’ve ranked him low the past few years with injury concerns, as he had a lengthy wrap sheet during his Japanese pitching years, plus he’s 34. Nah. |
44 | Jose Quintana, CWS | Everyone seems to be enamored by Quintana’s consistency, but he lacks upside, and with these ranks aimed for the mixed league concept, I’m not gonna overly invest. A guy with a 1.24 and 1.27 WHIP the past two seasons isn’t too exciting, but he gets decent Ks, keeps the walks low (BABIP has been a big issue due to the high WHIPs) and should get more than 9 wins like he’s unfortunately fallen into the past 2 years. |
45 | Michael Pineda, NYY | “K:BB is like your pitcher-crack, so why don’t you lovvvvvvve Pineda?!” I know that’s what you’re thinking, dear commenter. It’s just inconsistency, and if you’re walking a microscopic 1.18 per/9, you shouldn’t be giving up a .278 BAA. It shows a lack of command, and as widely talked about on YES, he lacks finesse on his secondary pitches at times. Now sure, you can point to a .332 BABIP and extremely unlucky 68.6%, but without that command of secondary stuff, his hit & HR rate in that park is going to continue to be high (14.7% HR/FB last year) which will keep the LOB low. Pitcher Profile – September 1, 2014 |
46 | Mike Fiers, HOU | I had no preconception I was going to rank Fiers high, but while compiling the ranks, it seems he’s ranked/drafted much later than this spot, which is odd for me given a guy with a PROVEN huge K rate. 180 K in 180.1 IP last year, and an absolutely absurd 205 K in 174 IP in 2014 if you combine AAA with his second-half run with the Brewers. Now, I get some of the concerns – he’s not a hard-thrower, when he doesn’t hit his spots he can get rocked, he was mad hittable early on with the Brewers last year, his BB rate went up, and he might not even start in the rotation… But if he gets 200+ IP which seems easily doable, he should be right at 200 K with a usable-enough ERA and WHIP. He’ll have some rocky stretches, but he’s being overlooked. |
47 | Lance McCullers, HOU | I know I made an innings limit argument above for Joe Ross, but the limit for McCullers scares me because I think they might yo-yo him this year. I get EXTREMELY scared of yo-yoers. I mean, all that time they spend just tweaking yo-yo tricks like rock the cradle?! Horrifying! I love McCullers’ stuff, but he has walk issues and if they flip flop him in and out of the rotation, I worry it’ll mess with him. |
48 | Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS | When you have a guy with huge velocity and I hear “adding a cutter”, all I can think about is those Indians hard throwers/Arrieta who are all aweeeesome. Sure this rank could change, but he’s one of my MAJOR watches this Spring. I’m hoping to catch a few of his starts and see what this cutter looks like. It’s hard to rank him any higher just on rumor, but he’s 22 (will be 23 most of the season) and there’s no question he has big potential. Stay tuned to this rank, especially since he tweaked his knee in drills last Sunday, so hopefully that doesn’t turn into something… |
49 | Wei-Yin Chen, MIA | I’m gonna go Wei Wei Wei all the way home! He doesn’t offer huge K upside, but moving from the AL East in a bad park to the NL East in an awesome park is quite a change. I could see the Ks getting up to 7.5, with a very solid ERA and WHIP. The wins will limit his upside, but I think he’ll be a rock as a SP3. |
50 | Jake Odorizzi, TB | While the ERA and WHIP improved last year, the huge K rate that made him a big sleeper last year took a MAJOR step backwards. 9.32 K/9 down to 7.97 in 2015, and his numbers were aided by a pretty lucky .271 BABIP. I get the allure, but I think he finishes beyond the first few tiers of pitchers again. |
51 | James Paxton, SEA | God, here we go again… He’s my “WHY CAN’T I QUIT YOU?!” pitcher (totally wrote that forgetting about my title for the Pitcher Profile linked below…)! One of the most injury prone pitchers – nay people – ever to walk this earth (he sprained his forearms – yes both – falling in early Spring last year!), at some point I gotta imagine the stuff shines through a [HOPEFULLY OH DEAR GOD I HOPE] mostly healthy season. The Ks were marginally better last year given it was another very small sample, and his arsenal just gives me an erection lasting 4 hours every time I watch him on the bump. We hear it about way too many guys in baseball, but he’s reportedly lost 20 pounds, which I’m guessing is due to cutting out syrup and Canadian bacon from his diet. At a price this late, I’ll throw the dart one last time. Pitcher Profile – September 14, 2015 |
52 | Collin McHugh, HOU | Given it’s almost entirely tied to the 19 wins, McHugh finished 25 on the Razzball player rater, and is getting ignored by almost everyone on draft day this season. The Ks went way down, but he still had a 3.89 ERA over 200+ innings with a usable-enough 7.56 K-rate and the WHIP got burned by a .310 BABIP. I’m not expecting huge things from him, but there’s still Ks, stability, and pitching for a good team on his side. Pitcher Profile – April 28, 2014 |
53 | Ian Kennedy, KC | For the past several years, I’ve been pretty anti-Kennedy. But I like him a lot this year, especially with a lot of nice background stuff going on. His K-rate has skyrocketed the past two years, and even had an improvement last year while cutting out a few walks. What used to be the pitcher-haven there in Petco has turned into a pitcher-hell, and he gave up an absolutely absurd 17.2% HR/FB last year. His BABIP has stayed high with a subpar defense as well, and now he gets a better park and a MUCH better defense. He’ll still have a pretty high WHIP with only an average ERA, but the Ks make him worth an SP4 draft day price. |
54 | Kevin Gausman, BAL | Here’s a good case study on my McCullers fears written above. Gausman was yo-yoed, and maybe a full season to prepare as a starter will get him going. He took a big step forward in Ks and BBs last year, given some of those numbers were in relief appearances. It’s high-reward without a ton of risk, but I don’t know if he has quite the upside to get into the, say, top-30. In his final stretch once cemented as a starter, he gave up 15 HR in 17 starts in 100 innings. Get him a better park! Maybe you bench him in tough starts at home… |
55 | Garrett Richards, LAA | Maybe I’m still a little jaded after he burned me last year, but he lost 0.8 MPH on his fastball from 2014’s revelatory year to last year, and he threw his slider 3.3% more often. It may be a little nit-picky, especially since he came into 2015 hurt, but to me it seemed like his fastball didn’t have the same command and dominance and he was forced to rely on off-speed a little more. It would be fine if it drew more Ks, but the strikeouts fell and the walks unsurprisingly went a good bit up. A 7.64:3.30 K:BB just isn’t very good, and his career-norms now make 2014 look like a real anomaly. I’m not investing in the bounceback. |
56 | James Shields, SD | One of the most baffling seasons from a veteran with a lot of data behind him I can remember, Shields went from innings-eater with meh Ks and low walks, to monster Ks with high walks and a ton of homers in 2015. His fastball lost some velo, but it wasn’t demonstrative and his arsenal seemed about the same. That said, his four-seam/two-seam/cutter all were hit hard, while his change-up and curveball had .212 and .190 BAA and got the vast majority of his Ks. What that says to me is hitters knew his fastball variants were incredibly hittable, and were sitting dead-red fastball. It’s worrisome. |
57 | Jordan Zimmermann, DET | I just don’t see this going well… I know he finished 31 on the Razzball Player Rater last year which is surprising given the middling numbers, but I think that’s his ceiling. JZ moves to the AL, he gets a nice park but now has to pitch against actual Major-League offenses with DHs unlike the NL East. Both the K-rate surge and ridiculous walk rate seem anomalies in 2014’s breakout – given he still barely walks anyone – but the rate in 2014 (1.31/9) was by far a career-high. And to add insult to injury, FB velo went 93.9, 93.9, 93.8 in 2012-14, down to 93.0 in 2015. It’s minimal, but it’s starting to go the wrong way. |
58 | John Lackey, CHC | A crazy year for the 36-year old in 2015, now Lackey is 37, and despite a great ERA across 218 IP last year, has had his K-rate decline and BB-rate increase for 3 consecutive seasons. His WHIP was still meh (1.21), but what saved his ERA was a preposterous 82.6% LOB – especially for a middling K guy. His velocity has maintained and he should eat innings as a bleh 4th SP, but don’t pay for last year’s sub-3.00 ERA. |
59 | Scott Kazmir, LAD | After a huge resurgence in 2013, Kazmir has flashed huge starts in 2014 and 2015, but the final numbers yielded only decent K rates and peripherals. I don’t like to rank a guy higher saying “draft him higher, then sell at the ASB” since some leagues are tough to trade in, but that’s pretty much what you have to do. Despite a lower ERA last year, his FIP and xFIP were MUCH higher, and he struck out less and walked more. I’m avoiding. |
60 | Vincent Velasquez, PHI | When I started assembling the ranks, I didn’t think I would be as big on Velasquez as the masses as starting the season in the rotation seemed a little unlikely. But now it’s looking like more than a possibility, and his power stuff has tremendous K-upside which we’ve already seen. Scary factors are a 3+ walk rate in virtually all stints in the Minors, he’s a flyball pitcher in a bad park, and I remember watching him a few starts last year and he struggled to get quick outs at times with several full counts. So I worry how deep he’ll be able to pitch on a bad team as it is, so I could almost assure single-digit wins. Pitcher Profile – June 22, 2015 |
61 | Andrew Cashner, SD | This could be a trap rank, but does a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a 7ish K-rate warrant a rank around here? Absolutely. And that’s what he did in 2014. Last year – a disaster. He got more Ks, but a lot of that had to do with facing a lot more batters per inning. The real crux are some of the most unlucky peripherals of any mainstay starter – .330 BABIP and 65.6% LOB. So guys were getting on lucky, and scored wayyyyy above average. I’m not expecting a huge diamond in the rough bounceback, but enough so to be fantasy relevant as a mixed league backend guy. |
62 | Kyle Hendricks, CHC | Definition of better real-life pitcher and career outlook than in fantasy. I know a lot of people will point to a nice K-rate last year (8.35) saying he could be a huge fantasy-sleeper, but that seems fluky high to me. I think he’s a solid 3.50 ERA type, 7ish K-rate, and durable – which is great to fill out a Major League rotation. Last year, he got 65 Ks on 1693 sinkers (his main fastball). In 2014 on 536 sinkers? Only 7. So he roughly tripled his K-rate on that pitch (I think hitters will adjust), and he throws pretty slow – although his change-up is a pretty dominant pitch. More a final SP pick than anyone I see huge upside for. |
63 | Aaron Nola, PHI | His K-rate last year seemed a little high (7.88) given his profile, he pitches in a bad park for being a little homer-prone, and he’s on an awful team. Doesn’t really have upside, but is so similar to Hendricks it’s silly. I kinda doubt he’ll be a hold all year in mixed leagues, but when it’s all said and done, if he stays healthy his high-floor will have him rank favorably. |
64 | Gio Gonzalez, WAS | He can get monster Ks, but at the peril of your WHIP. Last year he got pretty unlucky with BABIP (.341), but I think that got wiped away by only allowing a fairly lucky 8 HR over 175.2 IP and a fluky high GB% given his career-norms. Like a lot of guys I’m scared of, Ks went way down and BBs way up through 2014 and last year. |
65 | Julio Teheran, ATL | I dunno what’s harder to believe – he just turned 25, or his age 24 season had MASSIVE regression. But looking deeper, a lot of regression happened in 2014, but it was masked by a low BABIP and HR rate. However there was a huge hit in the walk rate, jumping from 2.08/9 to 3.27/9. Now, there is a little room for a semi-bounceback, as his velo on the heater was much slower in April-May last year (4.87 ERA) at way under 91 MPH, then it hopped to close to 92 ROS and his ERA was 3.67 from then on. But say he has a 3.67 ERA with a high WHIP and only decent Ks? Not enough upside to rank any higher. |
66 | Shelby Miller, ARI | It’s going to be a tough season for Miller, hoping to live up to the expectations of one of the worst trades in recent memory. I guess he’s decent enough in real-life terms, but in fantasy he wields a decent K rate, awful BBs, and his ERA survived a pounding by a low HR rate in a pitcher’s park. Now he moves to the desert, where things could get really scary. I don’t mind a final round, last pick flier though, as his Ks were better last year, BB went down, and he just added the cutter into his mix, which could improve as he’s still only 25. |
67 | Kenta Maeda, LAD | Like E-Rod and a few others, this rank could change dramatically with what I see in Spring. We pretty much HAVE to use the eye-test, since carry-over stats from overseas have no reliable conversation rate. What we’re expecting is a middling-to-subpar K-rate with a decent ERA/WHIP, which I wouldn’t rank this high except he’s in the NL and on a good team. Stay tuned to his update as we roll through Spring. |
68 | Trevor Bauer, CLE | Even with the upside, there’s no way I could invest more than a late-round flier on Bauer. The control is horrific, but he’s 25 and maybe can make a big improvement there and be a bargain. It’s just tough to buy into that when the BB jumped up to over 4 last year, and the only thing that made his WHIP at all digestible was a .276 BABIP limiting the hits. |
69 | Robbie Ray, ARI | Ray is one of the bolder last-round picks I’ll have for 2016. A lot of factors could sink him – he’s not even guaranteed the 5th starter spot, and his control has been poor coming up through the Minors. The optimism is that his control has improved through his career though, was an acceptable-but-still-bad 3.45 BB/9 in his first long stint last year, and he throws hard with big K-potential. Then again, he seems to give up a high BABIP as seen in all his Minor League stints, and had a 22.2% LD rate last year. If he can cut down on a few walks and get a little weaker contact, he’ll be huge value as a last pick sleeper. |
70 | Anthony DeSclafani, CIN | I’ve seen a lot of DeScalafani hype, noting a huge K:BB rate over his final two months (9.1:1.3). But what’s lost in that is he’s always been an impeccable control guy, posting sub-2.09 BB-rates in every stretch of his career (including 13 appearances for the Marlins in 2014) except one 12-appearance stretch in AAA 2014. The K-rate I think got a bump, because he just faced more batters due to an unlucky BABIP lending to a lot of hits. I think we could get a nice WHIP, decent Ks, and rough sledding in the wins. |
71 | Brandon Maurer, SD | Better late than never, amiright?! Ya know, I coulda sworn he was a high-end draft pick and prospect who just took a long time to get excited for again, but he was actually a very late draft pick and not as high-end as I remember reading some old stuff. He was dreadful when he got his first starts in Seattle, but got much better when he got to SD as a reliever. Now the Pads want to stretch him back out as a starter, and nothing excites me like a 95.1 MPH fastball and an 88.3 MPH cutter that he used a whopping 42.8% of the time last year. He’s converted his slider into that power cutter, and I watched a few of his relief appearances last year and bookmarked them to remember he could be a VERY under-the-radar sleeper if given a shot to start again. Given he might lose a little velo since he’s moving into the rotation, but he’s shockingly only 25-years-old. I think he was called up too early, dealt with some injuries, and is ready to surprise a lot of people this year. |
72 | Jerad Eickhoff, PHI | A popular deep sleeper across several SP ranks, I’m a buyer as well. He’s got decent velo, has 4 MLB-quality pitches, including a pretty gnarly slider. He’s continually improved his BB rates through his career, posting an 8.65:2.29 K:BB in 51 innings. Right there in this high-K, high-risk run of my ranks. |
73 | Tyler Glasnow, PIT | Woooo, time to get the rookie nookie going! I don’t typically rank prospects this high in my initial ranks since there’s always the question mark of when they come up, but Glasnow is worth drafting in mixed leagues to me as your last SP. They had conversations of calling him up last year, and by now we’ve all heard about this big kid with a huge fastball. Enter Searage as his mentor, and it’s tough to see a debut that struggles too much, and all he has to do is take over Ryan Vogelsong’s spot. |
74 | Blake Snell, TB | Thing that excites me – the Rays might sign him to a long-term deal before he hits the Majors. Thing that scares me – the only other guy to do it was Jon Singleton – who shares the same agent as Snell – and we all know how THAT went. Now, it’s not fair to draw a parallel there, but I found that interesting nonetheless. Snell is off a revelatory year that went: No ER in 21 innings in high-A ball, then sub-2.00 ERAs in AA and AAA, with a 10+ K-rate in every stop. If the Rays make the deal, they would have little incentive to keep him down, so he could move up further if that deal is made. |
75 | Yu Darvish, TEX | Man, a lot of people are banking on Darvish coming back like the old Darvish right away! Reports have him back mid-May to early-June, and given he improved on his BB rate when he got to the Majors, he’s still always been a 3+ guy and I worry about the command when he’s back. The velo dropped a good bit from 2013 to 2014 (0.5 MPH on fastball, 1.0 MPH on cutter), so I have some concerns how strong he’ll be once he’s back in the rotation. |
76 | Jaime Garcia, STL | He’s awesome… When he pitches of course. We all know the health risk, and I don’t wanna put any draft stock in hoping lighting strikes the same place twice. He pitched 121.2 innings in 2012, then combined in all levels, he only got to about 100 IP in 2013-14. Even with good numbers last year, he only got through 129.2 in the bigs with a 6.73 K-rate, so I don’t understand how he’s ranked so much higher on other draft boards… Pitcher Profile – June 9, 2014 |
77 | Jimmy Nelson, MIL | Well, I struggled which Brewer pitcher I’d rank highest, which says a lot about how bad my team is that the first one is this late… I’m torn between Jimmy and YOUNGMAN!, but going with the smidge more of upside for Jimmy. He has some control issues, but last year he introduced a new pitch to his arsenal he never even used in the Minors – a curveball. And he didn’t just flash it here and there like Pee-wee Herman, he threw it 21.1% of the time. In effect, it works like a change-up to mix with a power fastball and slider, but his slider has inconsistencies. The curve was a true plus-pitch until the end of the year when it lost some break, and there’s some breakout hope here if that pitch develops even just a tick more. But I can’t go any higher as he pitches in a bad park, offense isn’t good, and he’s just too inconsistent with not enough K upside. Pitcher Profile – July 14, 2014 |
78 | Taylor Jungmann, MIL | After being a first round pick, YOUNGMAN! didn’t have the upside flair in the Minors that Brewers fans were hoping for, but DAYUM if he didn’t shock last year. Almost everyone predicted a dropoff as the season wore on, and while it came true, he upped his innings pitched (and recently said he had a few minor nagging injuries) and is still working on a new pitching location: I believe it was in 2014, the Brewers moved him to the other side of the rubber, and while it was a bumpy transition, it has proven to be the right move. He’s gonna walk a few too many guys and probably will have a sub-8 K-rate, but could be backend worthy. |
79 | Ervin Santana, MIN | It’s boring, and he’s tough to root for after taking a big contract then testing positive for PEDs which cost him half of his debut season in Minneosta. And while his K-rate only topped 7.01 once since 2008 (that huge 2014 in ATL that helped get the contract…), I think he could eat innings, have a 7 K-rate, and be usable. He’s likely more a streamer, but if the roids in his system help him stay healthy in 2016, he’ll be worth this rank when it’s all said and done. |
80 | Adam Conley, MIA | A guy I thought I’d be huge on in 2016, I ended up having to pump the breaks a little on Conley. Ever since a nice K-rate in 2013 mainly in AA, it’s been middling since in the Minors, despite a nice 7.93/9 run in 67 big league innings last year. I watched a few of his starts and saw a few fastballs hit 95+, but his average was only 91.3 MPH. I was hoping this was due to a slower 2-seamer, but it was mainly fatigue. I watched him pitch against my Brewers on 9/8/2015, then again v. Philly on 9/23, and he averaged 93 MPH on the fastball in those starts, but it dropped to 90.9 his final two starts, after being 91ish overall his first 10 starts. So he got a little extra juice in the ones I watched, but it wore him out (given he pitched a long season across AAA and the Majors). He’s a lefty that relies a lot on that fastball, so if he can improve on consistent velocity, this will end up working out as your final pitcher, but for now he’s just outside the fringe and on my watch list to see how that velo looks. |
81 | Nate Karns, SEA | Sometimes the research can surprise you, and it certainly has for Karns, who I think is being MASSIVELY overlooked this year. Unfortunately, the Mariners might be overlooking him as well, as a long-term rotation spot is in question. Looking back at his numbers, I see a lotttttt of 10+ K-rates in MiLB stints, was 9.47 K/9 in AAA in 2014, and 8.88 in the Majors over 147 innings last year. He needs to get the walks a little better under control (3.43) and he gave up a few too many homers (19), but he remains in a pitcher’s park with the move to Seattle, and not too many guys this late have 9ish K-stuff that we’ve seen in the Majors ALREADY! Could be a huge last-pick anchor on your mixed league squads if we get word he’s making the rotation before your draft day. Pitcher Profile – June 15, 2015 |
82 | Jose Berrios, MIN | Another filthy prospect expected to make an extended impact this year, Berrios might be the #1 prospect ranked if we thought he’d be in right away. In AA and AAA last year, he had a K rate well over 9, a BB rate right at 2, with near dominant ERAs and WHIPs. He also threw 166.1 innings last year, with a hard fastball and power curve. Mmmmmm, rookie nookie! |
83 | Clay Buchholz, BOS | He’s sometimes really good, but sometimes really bad, and sometimes hurt. I feel like those are your 3 outcomes of which I give equal weight, and I don’t wanna bet on 33.3% odds. Now 31 and coming off a season that ended just over halfway through with an elbow strain is too scary for a mixed league investment from me. |
84 | Jake Peavy, SF | Peavy’s cutter has been masterful for the twilight of his career, throwing it an absurd 31.4% of the time next to 48% from his fastball. He’s pounding the zone like a reliever with those two! And the results were just fine for a deep league guy (probably was a mixed league guy a lot of last year too) with a 3.58 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 2015. His cutter is primo for inducing contact so you’re not getting many Ks, and health is a concern as he’s 34 and turning 35 during the season. But I could see him being an early streamer and hold in even mixed leagues right away. |
85 | Edinson Volquez, KC | Meh, he’s too boring to write too much on – will likely pitch a lot of innings at a 3.50-3.75 ERA with very blah Ks and a bad WHIP. When it’s all said and done, he’s likely top-100 though. |
86 | Nathan Eovaldi, NYY | I totally started buying in during the early stages of 2014, only to see Eovaldi lose the life on his slider and the ability to get any Ks. Much was made of him moving to NYY and he was a big sleeper last year, and yours truly was burnt too bad to buy it. YOU’RE WELCOME, MURICA! Ks barely went up, BB went way up, and he gives up such hard contact. I’ll pass. Pitcher Profile – April 7, 2014 |
87 | J.A. Happ, TOR | How much can Searage stick? Was unbelievable when getting to the Pirates, only to sign with Toronto who gave him up for virtually nothing just a few years ago. If you remember my ranks last year, I had him as a sleeper with his velocity oddly increasing into his 30s, but the velo fell last year and he got murdered by hard contact. 24.3% LD rate after sub-20% the previous 3 years, leading to a higher BABIP. The K rate did go up, but now he’s 33 and moving to that horrible park. I won’t be investing, just watching. |
88 | Mike Leake, STL | In mixed league roto contexts, Leake HURTS you more than helps. 200 innings of a 6 K-rate almost kills your ability to be competitive in that cat. It’s like a horrible FT shooter in fantasy basketball. He should have a nice WHIP, but while a lot of people argue for that awesome park he’s now in as a Card, he wasn’t any better with the ERA in SF vs. CIN (4.07 ERA in SF vs. 3.56 in CIN). |
89 | Andrew Heaney, LAA | I was huge on Heaney in 2014, but a subpar fastball without good secondary stuff had him get crushed. But he gained a full MPH on his fastball last year in LA, and while it helped him maintain a rotation spot, he pitches a little too much to contact for me and is too boring. Pitcher Profile – June 23, 2014 |
90 | Rick Porcello, BOS | I got a lot of flack for not ranking any Red Sock last year, but there’s 4 this time! After a career year in ERA in 2014 (given it was a Mike Leake-esque K-killing year), Porcello took a tough hit on ERA and WHIP. That said, Ks went way up at least… But he’s always a high BABIP guy, is really hittable when he’s not pounding the bottom of the zone, and he’s trending towards becoming a flyball pitcher which is scary in Fenway. Maybe he can limp his way to a decent year, but very little upside. |
91 | Derek Holland, TEX | I’m not expecting too much outta him, but it’s hard to believe he’s only 29 and he still has good velocity for a lefty. If he can stay healthy, he could have nice chunks of mixed-league usability. |
92 | Rich Hill, OAK | Everyone’s favorite Cinderella story is getting Queen Elsa treatment in ranks this season! Didn’t think you’d get a Disney princess joke buried in here did you?! Hill had 3 straight ridiculous starts at the end of a late-season stint with Boston (his 4th and final start wasn’t awful either), but I’m not paying for him to repeat that. I’ll gleefully flag him on my watch list, but I’m not getting him with a mixed-league draft pick. |
93 | Daniel Norris, DET | Norris has really struggled to find that massive K-rate he showed in the lower Minors, both in AAA and the Majors since his call up late last year. When I’ve watched him, his stuff has looked good but not overpowering. He got really lucky with BABIP and LOB% for a decent small-sample ERA/WHIP in DET last year, but the 6ish K-rate has me keeping him outside my mixed-league sleeper range. He’s still only 22 about to be 23, so there’s room for growth. Pitcher Profile – August 3, 2015 |
94 | Matt Moore, TB | Eesh, what do you do with Matt Moore? I think you watch from the sidelines, and I wouldn’t have even ranked him if not for a blistering 12.94:2.68 K:BB in 40.1 AAA innings last year. His numbers in the Majors were putrid, but it showed me there might be SOMETHING there. Almost bigger than the Ks in that AAA run was the sub-3.00 walk rate, which would be phenomenal for him in the bigs. He’s still only 26, and while he’s off the TJ, at least he got 100+ innings last year and this could be his make or break season. Pitcher Profile – July 13, 2015 |
95 | Henry Owens, BOS | Owens didn’t do too much to inspire optimism this year, and the top-rated prospect isn’t as sexy as the up-and-coming fireballers. His fastball averages under 90 MPH, but he makes up for it with a vastly underrated change-up. Opponents hit only .191 off his main off-speed offering and it induced a lot more ground balls than the rest of his stuff, a great fit in Fenway. Not huge upside, but someone I’ll be watching (plus the same awesome bullpen and offense other BoSox SP benefit from). Pitcher Profile – August 10, 2015 |
96 | Jon Niese, PIT | Work your Searage magic! K-rate is declining, but maybe he can find a few more punchouts and have a lengthy, 3.50 ERA season. A great cheap target in NL only. |
97 | Bud Norris, ATL | Speaking of cheap NL only targets, Norris might be the oddest name I have in my ranks. I dunno, I just have a feeling he can be productive. He’s 31, and only 1 year removed from a 7.57 K-rate and 3.65 ERA pitching in B-more. He still throws pretty hard (93ish), and his horrid numbers last year can almost entirely be explained by BABIP (.332) and LOB (unreal 58.8%). A lot of that had to do with relief appearances, but the Braves signed him to a 1-year deal to start, and in one of the best pitcher’s parks in one of the best divisions to pitch in, I think he can easily survive as a flyball pitcher. He might be in the streaming class earlier than later in 2016. |
98 | Josh Tomlin, CLE | Pulled a Rich Hill with the run he went on ending last year, striking out everyone and pitching like an ace in August and September. He’s always had elite control and been a crazy-flyballer, but he throws really slow, with a declining velocity the past 3 seasons. I could see it getting pretty ugly if you pay a premium sleeper price for this 31 yr-old. |
99 | Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD | Ryu had an awesome 2014, but shoulder surgery cost his 2015. Even with great BB rates, he gives up a few too many hits leading to iffy WHIPs. It’s just too risky for me to do anything except stream if he starts hot, which will likely be at least a few weeks after Opening Day as he’s expected to start the year on the DL. |
100 | Kris Medlen, KC | Mr. Irrelevant used to be VERY relevant after that breakout in 2012, but he regressed in 2013 then needed a TJ. Like a lot of these vets in the 80-100 range, yet another guy with a declining K rate and a lot of question marks, but gimme the guy in the awesome park with the awesomer defense. Woooo, rankings done! |
Wow. I feel like the end of Spaceballs‘ opening titles… “If you’ve read this far, you don’t need glasses!” Thanks everyone for dropping by, and let’s win those pitching cats in 2016!