Welcome, and hopefully your season-long teams if you play, have survived the injury Armageddon. Thankfully in the DFS corner of the industry, we don’t concern ourselves too much on that. We have an interesting 6-game main slate ahead of us. There are no true aces on the mound tonight along with some suspect offenses. Let’s get into it.
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Tyler Mahle, SP: $8,800 – Great American Ballpark is not a great place to pitch. Thankfully it’s going to be in the low 40’s all night against a weak-hitting Diamondbacks team. Mahle had a breakout campaign last season, albeit only in 47.2 IP. This season he has carried that moment thus far with a 26.8% K-BB rate and 2.57 ERA, 2.41 xERA. The D-backs best two hitters in my judgment, Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, both find themselves on the IL. I expect more of the same from Mahle in this one.
Freddie Freeman, C/1B: $4,100 – This game will likely start in a delay but when the weather breaks there will be a strong 18mph wind blowing out to right field. Under normal conditions, the short right-field porch is advantageous as is. Add in an elite LHB against Corey Kluber who has had his typical slow start to the season. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball but I like his chances to knock out his 6th homer of the season tonight.
Joey Votto, C/1B: $2,800 – Votto has changed his stance by standing more upright in hopes of adding more power. Early returns look good as he has 3 homers and 3 doubles on this young season. His opponent Merrill Kelly, is better than his 8.44 ERA indicates. However, he is still a league-average pitcher at best. Votto finds himself in a good ballpark, hitting clean up against an average pitcher. If you don’t want to pay up for Freddie, he’s your man.
Whit Merrifield, 2B: $3,900 – There are plenty of Michael Wacha believers out there, however, I am not one. He’s changed his pitch mix and is striking more guys out than ever, but he’s still getting hit very hard. Merrifield does not strike out much, career 16.1% k-rate. It will be strength against strength and Merrifield is the much better player.
Nick Senzel, 2B: $2,300 – He has struggled early on but the talent is there. He has been hitting 5th for the Reds as of late. A middle-of-the-order bat in a good ballpark against a scuffling pitcher, for only $2.3K? Yes, please.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $3,300 – Jonathan Stiever is being called up from the alternate site to start this one. He has respectable minor league numbers but never pitched above High A before pitching in the bigs last year. It was only 6.1 innings but he looked overmatched. Hard to say what adjustments he’s made since last summer. However, I fully expect Ramirez to take advantage of the youngster.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $3,100 – Suarez has been bad, .164/.299/.345 thus far in 67 PA. Thankfully he’s still one of the games elite power bats going into a good matchup. One great game can flip those numbers on its head pretty easily.
Amed Rosario, SS: $2,000 – My three favorite SS eligible players on the slate are all playing in the same game tonight (Semien, Bichette, and Bogaerts). Unfortunately, that game is unlikely to be played in my estimation. Life goes on however and we have to play someone. Analytically Rosario is not going to turn a lot of heads. However, he’s found himself leading off in a bad Cleveland offense (at only $2k no less). He’s reached base safely in four straight games and should be in for another decent result.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $3,200- He has been largely underwhelming to start his first campaign with the Mets (.171/.327/.195). There as some positives though as he is walking more than striking out (9 BB to 3 Ks). Combined with his pedigree, it is a matter of when — not if — he gets going.
Austin Meadows, OF: $3,100 – Meadows flashed his excellence last night with 3 hits including a homer and 2 RBIs. I expect him to carry that moment against an average pitcher in Jakob Junis. Junis has yet to give up a homer this season. His lowest HR/9 in his career was back in 2017 at 1.37, regression is coming.
Brandon Lowe, OF: $2,800 – He hit clean up last night and I don’t expect that to change with another righty on the mound. As I mentioned, I think a blow-up start is looming for Junis.
Eddie Rosario, OF: $2,800 – Eddie has always been pretty underrated in my estimation. He doesn’t walk much but he doesn’t really strike out much either. Add in legit 30 homer pop and he should garner more attention than he does. He also seems to be running more than he did with the Twins. This is probably just a change in organizational philosophy. The Twins in general tend not to run very often and why would they will all the power they’ve had in recent years. Cleveland’s offense has not been good and probably won’t garner much attention tonight. I like them as a fade the field stack.
Jesse Winker, OF: $3,700 – Winker has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball to start the season, .366/.409/.537. Home vs Road splits are often a bit noisy, but the Reds lead the league in wRC+ at 141 in home games. It helps Great American Ballpark is one the best hitters parks in the game too.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Wouldn’t be spring baseball without bad weather right?
Braves v Yankees at Yankee Stadium – This game will like start in a delay as rain is forecasted up through the first pitch. It should still go on as by 7 PM EST the chance of raindrops to 21%. Also, there should be a strong wind blowing out towards the short porch in right field.
Blue Jays v Red Sox at Fenway Park – This game will likely be postponed- 50% chance of rain at first pitch with that increasing throughout the night. *** morning update – The forecast is now calling for about 40% chance of rain throughout the night. This game might go on and is a high-risk, high reward play as many will be scared off by the weather.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Mets v Cubs (David Peterson v Zach Davies) at Wrigley Field – The run line is set at 7, give me the over. 7 runs is about as low a total as I’ve seen in some time. That is total I’d expect in a deGrom v Cole match-up. No disrespect to Peterson or Davies but they are far from that. Add in that they’ve both had brutal starts, this is a no-brainer.