Good day to you, Razzballers. Today is Sunday, April 7th, 2019. The year is of the Pig and the moon is in Saturn rising. All of this means it will be a fantastic day of baseball, obviously. Let’s celebrate by crushing this main slate.
Pumped? Get pumped.
Okay, too pumped, calm down – enough excitement for one Sunday.
Let’s instead look again at the process of successful, long term DFSers, and let’s try to improve together. Grab a coffee. It’ll be nice.
In Part I we learned how we can save ourselves from poor bankroll management by using The 80/20 Rule to reduce our risk of ruin. This rule is essential to secure our place in the game long term, and it is the foundation of a successful DFS process. What this rule does not do is help us win money in DFS. We have to do some work.
So let’s get to work; let’s build something. How about a tiny house? Actually, what about lineups? That sounds way easier.
How should we build lineups? Let’s look back how we began and move on from there. Maybe when we first started playing DFS we created our best lineup every day and entered that one lineup into every contest we entered. If there was a contest with multiple entries, our best lineup would be entered multiple times. If it’s possible to develop an emotional connection to a fantasy lineup, we did that, in spades. We loved that lineup. It sometimes loved us, but it definitely wasn’t as committed. Maybe this is still the process for some of us and we’re still holding onto our best lineup? If this is the case, let’s snap out of it, it’s time to let go.
There are so many other lineups in our fantasy world, why hold onto just one?
Let’s look at an example to show why we need to move on from using one lineup, why we need diversification:
Say we have a simplified DFS contest where every player costs the salary cap. There are five players in the player pool, all with similar points per game, and we can enter up to five lineups. We choose only one player per lineup in this setup, so our best lineup is the player we think will score the most points. Based on whatever projection, prognostication, taro card reading – anyone? no? – we use to predict the future, we choose our highest point total every time. What happens when we do this? Higher volatility. The result becomes an all-or-nothing outcome. To make matters worse, when we do win we are playing against ourselves, which means the pot will be split and potential winnings will be diminished.
We are guaranteeing for ourselves higher volatility and lower expected payouts every time we enter multiple of the same lineup into a single contest.
That is not a good strategy. We need to be done with just one lineup.
Fellow DFSers, we’re going to leave this here for now, plenty more to come on lineup diversification in future weeks. My wife is in labor with our daughter and I have no idea what I’m doing. This slate is dedicated to you, one-of-two-names-I-have-my-favorite-and-my-wife-has-hers-who-will-win?-obviously-me-yeah-right daughter.
Good luck to us all today. Now, on to the picks.
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Max Scherzer, SP: $11,900 – What perfect conditions for an afternoon game in New York today. Scherzer should throw at least a no-hitter today, maybe even a perfect game.
Brad Peacock, SP: $8,300 – Peacock holds the highest probability of a win of any starter on the slate and should get back to at least a K/IP today, even against an Oakland team that, except for one player, refuses to strike out.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $3,800 – This salary seems cheap for a player of Ramirez’s caliber. The value is appealing.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS: $4,500 – Small sample size, but better against LHP so far in his career.
Cedric Mullins, OF: $2,200 – Great value today hitting leadoff. Safe for Cash and GPP.
Eloy Jimenez, OF: $2,300 – Big upside at his cost, hitting in the 5-hole in a park that is very friendly to righties.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Though there are sad showers some places, mostly happy sunshine will bless our baseball skies. Low to no risk of PPDs.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Not much standing out, but the over 9.5 for Boston at Arizona should hit more often than not.