Welcome to another installment of Tuesday MLB DFS here on Razzball. We have a full slate of games on tonight’s slate, with some possible rain in parts of the midwest and northeast. Though this slate isn’t loaded with aces on the mound, there are quite a few nice spots to consider. The top options on the mound today include Tyler Glasnow vs WAS, Shane Bieber @ STL, Walker Buehler @ PIT, and Chris Bassitt vs ARI. The fact there aren’t an abundant amount of solid places to go on the mound means there’s likely going to be some teams that go off tonight at the plate. Places I’m going to turn for bats include Oakland, Philadelphia, Dodgers, and San Diego.
Good luck tonight, and remember to stay positive and visualize that bankroll spiking like Bitcoin in April. Visualize your success! You HAVE to believe it to be true before it can happen. Go with your gut and do it with confidence. Let’s go!
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Starting Pitcher Targets
Shane Bieber, SP: ($11,500) – Bieber gets a St. Louis team that has okay strikeout numbers but struggles mightily vs Righties this season. Bieber has struggled with walks this season, but if he can limit the free passes he should be able to pitch deep and rack up some Ks. The fact that Cleveland is opposing Carlos Martinez bodes well for his chances to get that 6 pt win. Watch the weather in this game, if it continues to show a high percentage of rain throughout, it might be better to fade.
Tyler Glasnow, SP: ($11,000) – Similar to Bieber, Glasnow gets a Nats team that doesn’t K too much but is also below league average vs righties when it comes to producing runs. Glasnow’s stuff is plenty good enough to get that K number where it needs to be in order to be a top 2 or 3 pitcher on the slate. He has 8 or more Ks in 7 of his last 8, reaching double digits in 5 of those starts. Furthermore, Glasnow has 10 or more Ks in each of his 5 home starts this season. He’s been dominant as can be in his home park and Juan Soto alone isn’t scaring me away from this matchup.
Pablo Lopez, SP: ($9,600) – We all know the deal; target the Rockies their first game coming off a homestand. It’s worked out in the past and I really like Lopez’s matchup tonight. The Rockies are LAST in the MLB away vs RHP in ISO, wRC, wRC+, and wOBA. They also strike out 26.5% of the time (7th highest). To top it all off, Lopez owns a 0.98 ERA at home. You’re saving enough from the top 2 guys to make this a worthwhile play, as it’s one of the best matchups you could ask for.
First Base
Matt Olson, C/1B: ($3,600) – Olson crushes RHP and unlike his 24.4% K rate vs Lefties, Olson has as many walks as Ks vs righties, both 11.8%. It’s a small sample, but Duplantier has given up a 50% flyball rate to lefties. This looks like a prime matchup for Olson to do some damage.
Rhys Hoskins, C/1B: ($3,300) – Hoskins Ks less significantly less and crushes the ball vs Lefties. He’s got a 1.029 OPS and .439 wOBA vs LHP. Smyly gives up plenty of fly balls and on a hot, humid day with the wind blowing slightly out, Hoskins is in a great spot to take advantage of his extreme fly ball numbers.
Second Base
Jonathan Schoop, 2B: ($3,000) – 43.2% hard-hit rate vs lefties and he’s starting to come back into form. Schoop had an abysmal start to the season in terms of getting on base and striking out. His K% has come down 12% since April and his OPS is 200 pts higher vs LHP. Regardless of what version of Marco Gonzales we see, Schoop is in a nice spot today.
Jonathan Villar, 2B: ($2,800) – Villar was a fantasy stud for most of his time with Baltimore. Now he gets a series back in Baltimore and starts it out vs a not-so-good Bruce Zimmermann. Villars numbers at the place have steadily risen since he’s gotten consistent playing time. As long as he’s in the lineup, I like the value of Villar as well as the entire team today.
Third Base
Jose Ramirez, 3B: ($4,000) – Power numbers are fantastic vs RHP, and Carlos Martinez is not good. Great spot, worth the price.
Manny Machado, 3B: ($3,800) – The price and the fact there are so many solid options at 3B today might keep Machado’s ownership low. If that’s the case, sign me up. Zach Davies has a 4.94 ERA and the underlying numbers show it should be much worse. His expected ERA (xERA) is up at 6.41.
Short Stop
Jazz Chisholm, SS (2B): ($3,200) – Great matchup for the Marlins vs Senzatela today. Jazz has the power/speed combo to keep his ceiling well above his price.
Gleyber Torres, SS (2B): ($3,000) – We’re seeing the hits start to fall, he’s got 7 in his last 4 games with 2 doubles and a homer. I’m not sure I’m sold on individual pitchers struggling without the substances to grip the ball. However, if that is a thing, we all know Pineda is going to be one of them. His last time out was bad and the Yankees seem like an under-the-radar solid stack tonight vs the Twins.
Outfield
Mark Canha, OF: ($3,700) – Leading off in a solid lineup with a real solid matchup. The A’s should score some runs tonight and I like Olson and Canha to be right in the thick of it.
Starling Marte, OF: ($3,600) – Low-owned outfielder with a great matchup and prime lineup spot.
Tommy Pham, OF ($3,000) – Pham has turned things around nicely since mid-may. He’s stealing bags and hitting with some power again. He should be leading off for the Padres who I think can pile some runs on tonight.
Eddie Rosario, OF ($2,900) – Rosario has not been great to this point in the season. However, he’s bound to get back on track at some point. This is a solid matchup at a nice price with very little ownership.
Alex Dickerson, OF: ($2,200) – Price too low to care how owned he is. We need some salary savers tonight and the Giants might be the place to do just that. His stroke looks good lately with 2 homers in his last 3.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s going to be storms developing throughout the Midwest and Northeast parts of the map. This time of year with this humidity, they could fade or turn into large nasty storms.
Mets @ Baltimore
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Dodgers @ Pittsburgh
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati
Astros @ Boston
Indians @ St. Louis
Doing Lines In Vegas
The MIL @ CIN & KC @ LAA games are both sitting at 8.5 o/u right now. I’m going to take the over in each game with a mini parlay.
Favorite Stacks: Dodgers, As, Phillies
Fades: Houston (weather/ownership)
Notes:
- If you’re playing large GPP tournaments and stacking Mets, try to get weird with it. The normal 1-4 or 2-5 stacks are going to be very highly owned and may limit your leverage in large-field tournaments.
