June is here, which means we are already a third of the way through the season. Time flies, I’ll tell you what. It seems like only yesterday this season was just getting started, now it’s full speed ahead and breaking home run records. It happens fast. Today we have an interesting seven game main slate on FanDuel. To differentiate our lineups we’ll focus on weather, and not just for postponement risk. Doing this allows us to get a better idea of the variance to expect from each game compared to neutral conditions.
Here’s what we have for today. Baltimore and St. Louis have similar conditions, providing a bump to left handed bats and hitters with power to all fields, otherwise neutral. Giants hitters look especially appealing. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Chicago should all see a slight edge to pitching, with the greatest edge to pitching in Chicago. The only change here is to further diminish hitter point projections in Pittsburgh – especially for hitters relying on power for point production – if it looks like they’ll play through rain. Atlanta should provide great hitting conditions, with a game time temperature in the upper 80’s and wind out to left center. Tampa vs. Minnesota is in a dome.
We can use this process every day to inform our lineup construction and adjust players or stacks. Making this part of our process allows us to incorporate valuable information that most all projections miss. Accounting for day to day variation in playing conditions compared to average is a great way to extract the most value out of our lineups.
Read on to see how we can use this information to determine our top picks for today.
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Zach Plesac, SP: $5,900 – He’s shined at multiple levels of the minors this season prior to his call up, he pitched well against Boston in his first MLB start, and today he faces a much less potent lineup vs. the White Sox in conditions that favor pitching. He’s also the nephew of Dan Plesac, so that’s meaningful in that it’s better than not being the nephew of Don Plesac.
Max Scherzer, SP: $11,000 – Conditions and opponent are average in every possible way, and average Scherzer is good enough for us to start with confidence.
Jake Odorizzi, SP $8,800 – This is a Rays team that is a little less fire than they were a couple weeks ago. Pham or Garcia missing this game provides a substantial boost compared to current projections.
Julio Teheran, SP $8,600 – Reasons to like this play: Detroit is not a good team at all, and Teheran has not given up more than a single run since April, all to teams much better than Detroit. Reasons to fade this play: his low strikeout rate does not allow the high upside of other pitchers on the slate, plus the hitting conditions should be great today in Atlanta. Overall, worth a limited look due to the opponent and likelihood of a Win and Quality Start aiding his expected point total.
San Francisco Giants – Overall this provides the highest average expected value of the slate. Slight lean to lefties based on the conditions in Baltimore. There are dozens of ways to structure stacks from just this one team. Order of preference: Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $2,400, Joe Panik, 2B: $2,900, Brandon Crawford, SS: $2,500, Stephen Vogt, C/1B: $2,100, Mike Yastrzemski, OF: $3,000, Brandon Belt, C/1B: $3,200, Kevin Pillar, OF: $2,300, Evan Longoria, 3B: $2,700
Milwaukee Brewers – A delay is possible with light rain in the forecast to begin the game, but a PPD is not likely. Jordan Lyles and his 38.6% hard hit rate provide a boost to the power hitters. Order of preference: Ryan Braun, OF: $3,000, Christian Yelich, OF: $4,700, Ben Gamel, OF: $2,500, Lorenzo Cain, OF: $3,200, Hernan Perez, 2B: $2,100, Eric Thames, C/1B: $2,500, Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,600, Keston Hiura, 2B: $2,900, Yasmani Grandal, C/1B: $3,600
Detroit Tigers – Teheran could shut them down, but the conditions are too good to ignore. Suggested stack: Christin Stewart, OF: $2,600, Niko Goodrum, 2B: $3,200, Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $2,300, Nicholas Castellanos, OF: $3,300
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Though scattered showers are forecast for several games today there’s not a game worth fading due to postponement risk.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Over/under currently sitting at 8.5 in Chicago, where we have a higher than average shot of a pitchers’ duel; let’s take the under here.
