Good Morning baseball fans and welcome to Monday Morning Toilet Talk with Jared!
Hope everyone had a nice weekend. As we start to get deeper into this shortened season we are getting to the point where we can really pick on up on trends and use some advanced statistics to determine who is playing well and who isn’t. Today’s slate is a fun one. There are some cheap bats that you can plug in that will help you pick up some of the higher priced bats that are in really great spots. As you can tell by the subject line, I’m pretty high on this Dustin May ($7,500) lad. The Padres have some scary bats on their team. Tatis, Machado, wait, that’s it. May is pretty cheap tonight for his skill set. Over the past 2 weeks, he’s K’ing nearly 11 per 9. One of the things that really stands out to me is the 57% swing rate in the zone. Essentially, that means players are fooled by his pitches. He’s also inducing a soft contact rate of 27.30% over the past two weeks. That’s 2nd best of all pitchers on today’s slate.
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Kyle Gibson, SP: $8,700 – My second favorite pitcher tonight is Gibson, and honestly he’s not far behind May. He’s facing a Mariners’ lineup that just isn’t very good. Over the past two weeks Gibson has a k/9 very close to May at nearly 11. He’s been giving up some hard contact, but as a ground ball pitcher it’s not the end of the world.
Bats! Not the coronavirus ones…
Fernando Tatis, SS: $4,300 – I know, I wrote May up as my top pitcher tonight. The match-up definitely scares me. That said, Tatis is on a roll right now. He has six homers in the last week and a woba of .702. Those numbers are just too hard to ignore.
Charlie Blackmon, OF: $4,400 – I feel almost lazy writing up Rockies or really anyone that plays in Coors. They’ll always be at an advantage. However, people tend to get scared off by the L/L match-ups. Blackmon has always been great against southpaws. Add in that he’s been super hot over the past week, he’s on my short list of players tonight.
Christian Yelich, OF: $4,200 – Yelich is really starting to heat up after a somewhat slow start to the season. Over the past week he has three homers and a woba of .549. He’s facing a pitcher in Dobnak who does not miss many bats and who I feel may be chalky tonight.
Kole Calhoun, OF: $3,300 – Anytime you can get a bat in Coors for this cheap you really need to take a look. While Gray is a solid pitcher, when it comes to pitching in Coors Calhoun and his platoon advantage should be on your list of hitters tonight.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,200 – We have a player here who has had a few bad games, 0-13 bad. What better medicine than Robbie “slump buster” Ray? None! Look for Arendo to break out of his mini cold streak.
Howie Kendrick, 2B: $2,500 – It pains me to say this as I’ve been a huge Matz fan, but he’s just not that good. This is a great price with a great match-up. Kendrick was pretty solid this week with a 73% hard contact rate. He doesn’t always make the lineup, but if he does he’s got a great shot at being successful tonight.
Starlin Castro, 2B: $2,600 – See above with Kendrick. One thing to add is BVP. I’ve said it in the past but BVP is something I only look to use when there’s a long history. Castro has a long history against Matz, a long successful history.
Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $2,800 – As much as I loathe the Astros, especially after the shenanigans of yesterday, Gurriel should be in your player pool for tonight. He’s cheap, he’s hot, and he’s facing a pitcher in Webb who’s inducing a lot of hard contact. 48% over the past two weeks to be exact.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There should be limited weather concerns today. Only potential rain spot is in Detroit.
Should be nice and hot on the east coast, while sunny and cooler on the west coast.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Really like today’s slate. You have a few different options outside of Coors. White Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, and A’s all have high implied runs totals with great matchups. While I feel like Coors will go off tonight, especially the Rockies’ side, these are definitely ways to differentiate yourself.
