We have a DFS battle of two pitching deities on today’s 9 game FanDuel Main Slate, between Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. It’s such a tossup we need to look to their name origins for meaning. This will surely help us make a decision. We find deGrom is Flemish, and means ‘thunder’ in many Slavic languages; and we find Verlander is also Flemish, and likely means ‘dweller by the pasture land’. deGrom could also (absolutely not) refer to Grom Gelato, which seems very likely (no). So, we have thunder and gelato vs. pasture dweller. That’s still a tough decision. Maybe we’ll look at horoscopes. Or maybe we just need to get both pitchers in lineups today.
Here’s what we see:
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Justin Verlander, SP: $11,000. Along with deGrom, Verlander needs to be a primary weapon today. Though he is facing a potentially dangerous Yankees lineup, it is also one that could easily allow double digit strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom, SP: $10,600. When playing pitchers at Wrigley Field we need to always consider the weather. Today we need to pay attention mostly to the wind direction. As of now the forecast is for the wind to remain neutral, blowing across the field from right to left at 12 mph. If the wind were to shift more out of the south, then we would need to adjust our thinking here, as a 12 mph wind blowing out at Wrigley can turn routine fly balls into home runs, an obvious problem for starting pitching. The risk is greater with LHP Hamels than RHP deGrom in this game, but we still do not want to risk too much if poor pitching conditions prevail. If the forecast holds, though, we can start deGrom with full confidence.
Enyel De Los Santos, SP: $5,500 – De Los Santos is making his first start today, coming out of a long relief role and stretched to five scoreless innings in his most recent minor league start. It’s difficult to imagine him going six innings for a quality start, so his upside might be capped, but he’s basically facing another minor league lineup today. So we like our chances. Any pitcher facing the Marlins is worth a long look, and even if he only goes five innings De Los Santos should reach value more often than not. With the wind also blowing slightly in from left this is easily our best value play of the day.
Now for some stacks!
Milwaukee Brewers – This isn’t a particularly high expected run total, but with DeSclafani on the mound we see value in plenty of Brewers lefties. Order of preference: Eric Thames, C/1B: $2,600, Mike Moustakas, 2B: $3,700, Travis Shaw, 3B: $2,500, Yasmani Grandal, C/1B: $3,300, Christian Yelich, OF: $4,900, Ryan Braun, OF: $2,900
Philadelphia Phillies – Yamamota is entering his third start with the first two turning out as well as could be expected. We are playing the likelier outcome: regression to his expected mean performance. So, we fade Yamamota and stack Phillies hitters. Order of preference: Bryce Harper, OF: $3,900, J.T. Realmuto, C/1B: $2,900, Rhys Hoskins, OF: $3,900, Maikel Franco, 3B: $2,500, Jay Bruce, OF: $2,600, Jean Segura, SS: $3,300
Detroit Tigers – This is purely a value stack, taking advantage of deflated values giving us more salary space to fill out our lineup with superstars. Order of preference: Christin Stewart, OF: $2,800, Niko Goodrum, SS: $2,800, Nicholas Castellanos, OF: $2,800, JaCoby Jones, OF: $2,700, Brandon Dixon, 2B: $3,900, Miguel Cabrera, C/1B: $2,600
Special mention for a handful of bats in Boston who could take advantage of 10 mph wind shifting out to left today. Order of preference: Andrew Benintendi, OF: $3,500, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., OF: $2,800, Mookie Betts, OF: $4,100, Billy McKinney, OF: $2,000, Cavan Biggio, 2B: $3,000
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing too worrying out there today. Kansas City vs. Minnesota may delay to let lingering showers pass, but there is no significant risk of PPD, and Chicago vs. New York should stay dry or play through a bit of light rain to finish.
Doing Lines In Vegas
With the wind in Boston shifting in-game to be out to left at 10 mph, let’s take the over with the O/U currently sitting at an even 10 runs.