With two weeks left in the season we have plenty of sample size with which to make analytical decisions. However, it doesn’t take that analysis to determine that the Miami Marlins are bad. The Marlins are far and away the worst team in OPS and they rank top ten in total team strikeouts. This makes Madison Bumgarner ($9,900) my top option tonight. We’ve got a massive 11 game slate, which I love on a Saturday night. deGrom, Clevinger and Greinke could all make a case for top pitcher on the slate, but Bumgarner has the cushiest match-up while also pitching at home. I like the double digit strikeout upside here and love MadBum to get the Win. Lock him in and let’s get some bats to go along with him tonight.
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Zack Greinke, SP: $9,700 – If you’d rather avoid MadBum for some reason, I’d instruct you to look at Greinke as your SP1 tonight. The Royals are another bottom of the barrel team in OPS ranking fourth from the bottom. Greinke had a couple hiccups against Tampa and in Milwaukee but righted the ship against Oakland last time out. I like him to keep things rolling tonight.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: $8,800 – I don’t love the cheaper options tonight, I wish Glasnow would be getting more innings, but that’s purely for selfish reasons. Really, he should be saving himself for next year and being an ace on all my season-long teams. Eduardo has been absolutely cruising of late. He even got out of Colorado unscathed and then got through Minnesota and New York with only giving up one run. I’ll be honest, I dropped him after the Padres game when I saw this brutal stretch coming, but Eddie has made me regret it. Tonight he gets the Phils in an NL ballpark where he gets to pitch to a pitcher. Advantage: Rodriguez. I think he keeps on cruising.
Eric Hosmer, C/1B: $3,500 – I’m not really sure why the Pads are the Rodney Dangerfield of Coors, getting no respect. All the Padres are priced pretty reasonably and between Hosmer and Machado, they are my top two targets tonight.
Joey Votto, C/1B: $3,300 – Votto is a tepid recommendation at best, but I couldn’t find a lot to love at first tonight. The hitter-tron is all over Votto though, so I’ll go with it.
Greg Garcia, 2B: $3,000 – Or Ty France, both are priced the same and Garcia got the start yesterday against a righty and another righty is on the mound tonight in Lambert. Whoever starts is in play at this price
Aledmys Diaz, 2B: $2,800 – Diaz has been filling in for Yuli while he’s been out and doing a respectable job. I expect the Astros to take it easy with Yuli and give him a day off after his first day back which means we could see Aledmys again. Mike Montgomery is nothing to fear and I like the cheap exposure here.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,400 – Machado is my top choice at third but the A’s vs Rangers has the highest non-Coors over/under tonight so I’m looking for a couple of them. Fiers can’t be the only one Vegas expects to give up some runs and Chapman should be smack in the middle of anything Oakland puts together.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS: $3,400 – All he does is hit and run. Mondesi is also still priced too cheaply.
Luis Urias, SS: $3,000 – Another Padre getting no respect. The power hasn’t really shown up yet, but the average has and there’s no place like Coors for power to make an appearance.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Not a rain cloud in sight. Play ball!
Doing Lines In Vegas
As I mentioned, outside of the 13 in Coors, the A’s and Rangers sport the next highest over/under and 10.5. There are actually a slew of 7.5s out there tonight, I’d bet the overs there just based on how this season has gone. Greinke and the Astros are the biggest favorites tonight by a wide margin at -350. Wow.